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Property Market 2020

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,960 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Am 28 on 42K, two hours from Dublin, houses in my area are 200k. Can't get a mortgage and work in IT. Will have to wait another four or five years for my salary to hit 50K before i can get one or have about 60K saved to get one now.

    But Meh, rent is more than the mortgage would be.
    Why cant you get a mortgage?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,192 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Again I can only offer a micro view of the D15/Meath areas in terms of new builds but I can attest to the above post re: not experiencing the demand for new builds often expressed here.

    We viewed a few new build developments over last year and none had sold out on day one/off planss that I can think off. Most still available.

    One small development in lexslip springs to mind (the view, st.marys) still had some units available months after launch and last checked had dropped ~30k off the prices.

    The housing crisis is an affordability issue, not necessarily a supply issue.

    There is an abundance of supply of rubbish houses, they are just not priced to sell.

    There is plenty of demand, just possibly not in Leixlip!

    Its been said before, but I honestly dont understand why people assume they should be able to buy a house in Dublin, the capital city on an average industrial wage.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭snoopboggybog


    Thargor wrote: »
    Why cant you get a mortgage?

    200000- 42K*3.5 leaves 53K deposit, 5K in fees so would need around 60K.

    I could move an hour away from work and get something for 160,000 but who wants that?

    Its not like i'm not employable either. Company I'm in employs 30,000 + and could pick up something in Dublin if i was badly stuck around the 55K range.


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    GreeBo wrote: »
    If affordability was the problem rather than demand, wouldn't there be tens of thousands for sale in Dublin? Right now there are 4207.

    Would there be? I'm not sure how picking a random figure proves your hypothesis...

    Open up daft, there are plenty of new developments in South Dublin alone that have been advertised for months if not longer with units still available.

    This demand is grossly over stated. And usually that's a factor of people spinning society's requirement for housing as demand in the property market. The two are not the same.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    Reversal wrote: »
    Would there be? I'm not sure how picking a random figure proves your hypothesis...

    Open up daft, there are plenty of new developments in South Dublin alone that have been advertised for months if not longer with units still available.

    This demand is grossly over stated. And usually that's a factor of people spinning society's requirement for housing as demand in the property market. The two are not the same.

    You were the 1 pulling numbers out of your a*s this morning. Random figure as you call it looks like the number available for sale. Are you disputing that? Do you have another number?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    garhjw wrote: »
    You were the 1 pulling numbers out of your a*s this morning. Random figure as you call it looks like the number available for sale. Are you disputing that? Do you have another number?

    Come on, anyone can see the random figure I was referring was the insistence that there should be "tens of thousands" listed.

    Maybe if you were more open to the evidence you wouldn't have already missed the turning tide with your investments. And now you wouldn't be getting aggressive with people for discussing reality on the internet. Each to their own.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    Reversal wrote: »
    Come on, anyone can see the random figure I was referring was the insistence that there should be "tens of thousands" listed.

    Maybe if you were more open to the evidence you wouldn't have already missed the turning tide with your investments. And now you wouldn't be getting aggressive with people for discussing reality on the internet. Each to their own.

    Ah bless maybe someday you will get a job and be able to afford to move out of your moms house. I’m not aggressive but when people like you make stuff up it needs to be called out.

    My investments are great, I have no debt and don’t want to buy or sell. I’m in a great place. You’re clearly not.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,192 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Reversal wrote: »
    Come on, anyone can see the random figure I was referring was the insistence that there should be "tens of thousands" listed.

    Maybe if you were more open to the evidence you wouldn't have already missed the turning tide with your investments. And now you wouldn't be getting aggressive with people for discussing reality on the internet. Each to their own.

    Well you are saying that demand isn't the problem, that instead of affordability.
    For this to be true I would have expected there to be lots of, albeit expensive, supply available. Ah least more than the demand.
    There are 4207 properties for sale in Dublin right now on my home.ie
    How many prior are looking for property in Dublin.
    Do you honestly think it's less than 4207?


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    garhjw wrote: »
    Ah bless maybe someday you will get a job and be able to afford to move out of your moms house. I’m not aggressive but when people like you make stuff up it needs to be called out.

    My investments are great, I have no debt and don’t want to buy or sell. I’m in a great place. You’re clearly not.

    If that's what you want to believe to keep your mental model intact. Work away.


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Well you are saying that demand isn't the problem, that instead of affordability.
    For this to be true I would have expected there to be lots of, albeit expensive, supply available. Ah least more than the demand.
    There are 4207 properties for sale in Dublin right now on my home.ie
    How many prior are looking for property in Dublin.
    Do you honestly think it's less than 4207?

    In a position to, and want to, buy at current prices right at this moment. Yep, I wouldn't think that's an unreasonable belief.

    But the evidence is more important. "Pent up demand" doesn't result in houses sitting on the market endlessly. But apparently it does on boards.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    Reversal wrote: »
    In a position to, and want to, buy at current prices right at this moment. Yep, I wouldn't think that's an unreasonable belief.

    But the evidence is more important. "Pent up demand" doesn't result in houses sitting on the market endlessly. But apparently it does on boards.

    Words words words but nothing else as usual


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    GreeBo wrote: »
    There is plenty of demand, just possibly not in Leixlip!

    Its been said before, but I honestly dont understand why people assume they should be able to buy a house in Dublin, the capital city on an average industrial wage.

    Leixlip is closer to city centre distance wise than a lot of places in dublin, has two train stations and multiple bus routes. Are you suggesting there's no demand solely because it's not dublin county?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    I'm not sure it's useful to point to what looks like a small infill development of 7 arguably pricey terraced houses and suggest its indicative of the property market.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    garhjw wrote: »
    Ah bless maybe someday you will get a job and be able to afford to move out of your moms house. I’m not aggressive but when people like you make stuff up it needs to be called out.

    My investments are great, I have no debt and don’t want to buy or sell. I’m in a great place. You’re clearly not.

    That last paragraph sounds like you talking to yourself. You’re clearly not in a great place. You come across as someone who is demented and up to their eyeballs in bubble investments that are about to collapse. Let’s see what daft rental report and CSO figures say in Q2.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    pearcider wrote: »
    That last paragraph sounds like you talking to yourself. You’re clearly not in a great place. You come across as someone who is demented and up to their eyeballs in bubble investments that are about to collapse. Let’s see what daft rental report and CSO figures say in Q2.

    My hardly going to take the opinions and “analysis” of loons on boards and an indicator of where the property market lies. Sad indictment of this country reading posts from the likes of you and others. Shows the jealpusy and bitterness of so many in this country.

    I’m in a great place thank you.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,192 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Reversal wrote: »
    In a position to, and want to, buy at current prices right at this moment. Yep, I wouldn't think that's an unreasonable belief.

    But the evidence is more important. "Pent up demand" doesn't result in houses sitting on the market endlessly. But apparently it does on boards.

    So it's a belief now?

    What makes you belief sans evidence better then my belief with supporting evidence?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,192 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Reversal wrote: »
    In a position to, and want to, buy at current prices right at this moment. Yep, I wouldn't think that's an unreasonable belief.

    But the evidence is more important. "Pent up demand" doesn't result in houses sitting on the market endlessly. But apparently it does on boards.

    2754 houses have sold in Dublin (according to PPR) so far in 2020, so thats over half of whats currently for sale.

    Do you have evidence of "houses sitting on the market endlessly"?
    Again, ~4000 houses doesnt seem like a massive amount to me, does it seem like an excessive amount to you?


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    GreeBo wrote: »
    So it's a belief now?

    What makes you belief sans evidence better then my belief with supporting evidence?

    Resorting to semantics again


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    GreeBo wrote: »
    2754 houses have sold in Dublin (according to PPR) so far in 2020, so thats over half of whats currently for sale.

    Do you have evidence of "houses sitting on the market endlessly"?
    Again, ~4000 houses doesnt seem like a massive amount to me, does it seem like an excessive amount to you?

    Again, Daft is available to everyone. In the area I keep an eye on, around 20% have been on the market for over 6 months. Some over a year.

    We're clearly not going to agree. Let's just check back in in 12 months and see how this demand has held up. That outcome will surely be free of "belief". See you then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    GreeBo wrote: »
    So it's a belief now?

    What makes you belief sans evidence better then my belief with supporting evidence?

    Are you involved in the property industry GreeBo? Do you have a vested interest in it? Looking at some previous posts you really know alot about building regulation and structure design. It might give give other readers a bit of context to your arguments about property.


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Guys- less antagonism towards each other please. Its not difficult to remain civil.


  • Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    Transactions are halted for a 1-month minimum. There will be a Gap on the chart when the trading re-opens. This has never happened before. Not in the real estate market.


  • Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭TSQ


    200000- 42K*3.5 leaves 53K deposit, 5K in fees so would need around 60K.

    I could move an hour away from work and get something for 160,000 but who wants that?

    Its not like i'm not employable either. Company I'm in employs 30,000 + and could pick up something in Dublin if i was badly stuck around the 55K range.

    €160k fora house in Leixlip sounds amazingly good value, not to say cheap. Why aren’t the govt/councils buying these properties to house families looking for a “forever home” from the tax payer? Bizarre that there are “homeless” families when houses that close to Dublin are so cheap. Maybe the gardens arent big enough?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    GreeBo wrote: »
    So it's a belief now?

    What makes you belief sans evidence better then my belief with supporting evidence?

    If there's a recession prices will fall because pent up demand will fall, along with actual demand. For all you know Ireland, or the world, could be in for a 5 year recession, or more likely wages and disposable income will stay low for that period, because nobody knows the endgame here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    TSQ wrote: »
    Why aren’t the govt/councils buying these properties to house families looking for a “forever home” from the tax payer?

    Do you think there will be any money left in the budget after the huge coronavirus related spendings? The revenues are down, the spendings are up. There's no money in the purse.


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    https://www.rte.ie/amp/1127476/

    EY projections for the Irish economy.

    Best case scenario:
    GDP contraction of 7%
    450,000 job losses.
    177,000 of these jobs are permanently lost.

    Worst case scenario:
    GDP contraction of 13%
    675,000 job losses.
    318,000 of these jobs are permanently lost.

    "Professor Gibson said the effect of this pandemic will be felt for years, if not decades due to the scale of borrowing required to see economies through the most virulent phase of the outbreak.

    "Early estimates from the EY Economic Eye model suggest a recession is certain, and a depression is possible if the economic restrictions need to be in force for a protracted time," "

    But I'm sure some rabble along the lines if "people will always need somewhere to live" will stop the already softening housing market from slumping.

    And this is before we start staring down the BREXIT barrel again. For real this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭TSQ


    voluntary wrote: »
    Do you think there will be any money left in the budget after the huge coronavirus related spendings? The revenues are down, the spendings are up. There's no money in the purse.

    After the last whipping at the polls, FG or whoever forms a govt will prioritise the “homeless” no matter how much has to be borrowed, so yes, there will be lots of money for housing. Scarce funds already being pumped in to rehousing those in temp accommodation to facilitate social distancing (though it appears many had already managed to make their own arrangements, surprisingly).


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Reversal wrote: »
    https://www.rte.ie/amp/1127476/

    EY projections for the Irish economy.

    Best case scenario:
    GDP contraction of 7%
    450,000 job losses.
    177,000 of these jobs are permanently lost.

    Worst case scenario:
    GDP contraction of 13%
    675,000 job losses.
    318,000 of these jobs are permanently lost.

    "Professor Gibson said the effect of this pandemic will be felt for years, if not decades due to the scale of borrowing required to see economies through the most virulent phase of the outbreak.

    "Early estimates from the EY Economic Eye model suggest a recession is certain, and a depression is possible if the economic restrictions need to be in force for a protracted time," "

    But I'm sure some rabble along the lines if "people will always need somewhere to live" will stop the already softening housing market from slumping.

    And this is before we start staring down the BREXIT barrel again. For real this time.

    It may all make sense on economical point, but as previous discussed on the significant build up of unsold dwellings, where provided the source as of couple of thousand unsold new dwellings in Dublin, simply doesn't seem correct.
    It's one thing of project having 10-20% of unsold properties after 3-6 months, which is normal in healthy market. It's very different from significant 30% build up of unsold new dwellings, across whole Dublin in given 1 year window.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,457 ✭✭✭fliball123


    TSQ wrote: »
    After the last whipping at the polls, FG or whoever forms a govt will prioritise the “homeless” no matter how much has to be borrowed, so yes, there will be lots of money for housing. Scarce funds already being pumped in to rehousing those in temp accommodation to facilitate social distancing (though it appears many had already managed to make their own arrangements, surprisingly).

    Surely as people are pointing out that the supply side will open up due to all the foreigners going home and the old dying and the Air BnBs coming into the market why would they do anything with housing when according to some we will be swimming in property by this time next year


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  • Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    TSQ wrote: »
    After the last whipping at the polls, FG or whoever forms a govt will prioritise the “homeless” no matter how much has to be borrowed, so yes, there will be lots of money for housing. Scarce funds already being pumped in to rehousing those in temp accommodation to facilitate social distancing (though it appears many had already managed to make their own arrangements, surprisingly).

    Governments can only borrow as much as the markets wish to lend them. Anything above that and you're moving into some astronomical % rates.


This discussion has been closed.
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