Property Market 2020

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

how many people actually bought houses when prices dropped the last time. People forget in a bad market people aren't inclined to sell builders aren't inclined to build and banks aren't inclined to lend

Maybe what you are after comes available and maybe you are in a position to buy it but don't bet on it

A lot of people bought and sold houses during recession around the time prices hit rock bottom

Cyrus

skooterblue2 wrote: »

The Bank Repo officer like in the last recession?

give me a break the amount of houses repossessed here during the last crash was almost non existent.

They are still chasing people through the courts who haven't paid their mortgage since then

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

A lot of people bought and sold houses during recession around the time prices hit rock bottom

They didn't really , anyone who didn't need to sell didn't , it was a non functioning market for the most part

I bought a house in the last recession, 2009.
It wasn't super cheap, no mad bargain, but it was good value, at the time.

I'm now in the market for another house, other side of the city. I'm sorry I don't have one yet. I'm looking over 12 months.

So, all those people talking about massive savings & taking advantage etc etc,
I don't care.
There is always less properties in the market in a recession & I am sick of renting.
So when I can go view houses again, I will go view houses.
& when I see the house I want, I will buy it, hopefully!

Cyrus

pearcider wrote: »

Taxes are going to have to go up especially on people with good salaries. Our debt/gdp ratio is going to explode this year, looking at our disastrous tax take for March I’d say we will take out the 2012 high of 120% early next year. This will require emergency budgets.

The solution to everything tax high earners more , what do you propose a 60 percent marginal tax rate ? 70 maybe ?

pearcider

Cyrus wrote: »

The solution to everything tax high earners more , what do you propose a 60 percent marginal tax rate ? 70 maybe ?

I don’t agree with taxes in general as they are a drag on the economy and will make recession much worse but we are looking at economic Armageddon here so I am only saying what our government will be forced to do. I don’t think people are fully grasping this. Forget the housing market for 5 years. It’s toast. The question is will the worlds financial system survive. I think that is very much up in the air.

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

They didn't really , anyone who didn't need to sell didn't , it was a non functioning market for the most part

Look at the stats, thousands of houses were sold/bought during recession.
Lower volumes yes but still a decent amount of transactions, people have cash and sellers don't want to wait and see their property keep losing money. Nobody knows how long this will last

Eric Cartman

Mic 1972 wrote: »

A lot of people bought and sold houses during recession around the time prices hit rock bottom

at the bottom we were 80%+ cash buyers though.

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Look at the stats, thousands of houses were sold/bought during recession.
Lower volumes yes but still a decent amount of transactions, people have cash and sellers don't want to wait and see their property keep losing money. Nobody knows how long this will last

As I said relatively few

One thing is for sure most of the people cheering this on won't be buying a house if what they are hoping for comes to pass

Cyrus

pearcider wrote: »

I don’t agree with taxes in general as they are a drag on the economy and will make recession much worse but we are looking at economic Armageddon here so I am only saying what our government will be forced to do. I don’t think people are fully grasping this. Forget the housing market for 5 years. It’s toast. The question is will the worlds financial system survive. I think that is very much up in the air.

Well if that's the case taking away the disposable income of the few people left working won't be the answer

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

They didn't really , anyone who didn't need to sell didn't , it was a non functioning market for the most part

PPR shows the number of sales..... doesn't go back to 2008 and 2009.

2010 20980 sales
2011 18419 sales
2012 25345 sales
2013 30048 sales
2014 43601 sales

OwlsZat

Cyrus wrote: »

The solution to everything tax high earners more , what do you propose a 60 percent marginal tax rate ? 70 maybe ?

Do you realise we just altered our tax law to facilitate Irish tax aliens paying no Irish tax whatsoever.

OwlsZat

bubblypop wrote: »

I bought a house in the last recession, 2009.
It wasn't super cheap, no mad bargain, but it was good value, at the time.

I'm now in the market for another house, other side of the city. I'm sorry I don't have one yet. I'm looking over 12 months.

So, all those people talking about massive savings & taking advantage etc etc,
I don't care.
There is always less properties in the market in a recession & I am sick of renting.
So when I can go view houses again, I will go view houses.
& when I see the house I want, I will buy it, hopefully!

When did you sell the house you bought in 2009?

You have played a bit of a stormer on timing the market it would seem.

skooterblue2

OwlsZat wrote: »

Do you realise we just altered our tax law to facilitate Irish tax aliens paying no Irish tax whatsoever.

I cant wait to get my passport for St. Kitts and Nevis. :D:D:D

Marius34

Augeo wrote: »

PPR shows the number of sales..... doesn't go back to 2008 and 2009.

2010 20980 sales
2011 18419 sales
2012 25345 sales
2013 30048 sales
2014 43601 sales

BPFI reports information on Mortgage since 2003.
Here is Total number of Mortgage Drawdowns For Ireland based on BPFI data:

Year | Drawdowns

---

2003 | 159,032
2004 | 177,557
2005 | 201,260
2006 | 203,953
2007 | 158,098
2008 | 110,305
2009 | 45,818
2010 | 27,666
2011 | 14,273
2012 | 15,881
2013 | 14,985
2014 | 22,119
2015 | 26,885
2016 | 29,498
2017 | 34,798
2018 | 40,203
2019 | 42,787

Note. This includes Top-Up's & Re-Mortgage, which are not part of Sale Transactions.

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

PPR shows the number of sales..... doesn't go back to 2008 and 2009.

2010 20980 sales
2011 18419 sales
2012 25345 sales
2013 30048 sales
2014 43601 sales

Marius34 wrote: »

BPFI reports information on Mortgage since 2003.
Here is Total number of Mortgage Drawdowns For Ireland based on BPFI data:

Year | Drawdowns

---

..........
2010 | 27,666
2011 | 14,273
2012 | 15,881
2013 | 14,985
2014 | 22,119
.......

Note. This includes Top-Up's & Re-Mortgage, which are not part of Sale Transactions.

Good info.

2012 shows that the top ups and remortgage can really taint figures though if you are trying to look at # of mortgages to gauge # of actual properties sold.

Marius34

Without Top-Ups and Re-Mortgage:

Year | Drawdowns

---

2003 | 94,682
2004 | 103,018
2005 | 110,495
2006 | 110,790
2007 | 84,194
2008 | 53,616
2009 | 25,097
2010 | 18,313
2011 | 11,050
2012 | 14,160
2013 | 13,472
2014 | 20,155
2015 | 23,664
2016 | 24,891
2017 | 29,395
2018 | 32,123
2019 | 34,087

Cyrus

Marius34 wrote: »

Without Top-Ups and Re-Mortgage:

Year | Drawdowns

---

2003 | 94,682
2004 | 103,018
2005 | 110,495
2006 | 110,790
2007 | 84,194
2008 | 53,616
2009 | 25,097
2010 | 18,313
2011 | 11,050
2012 | 14,160
2013 | 13,472
2014 | 20,155
2015 | 23,664
2016 | 24,891
2017 | 29,395
2018 | 32,123
2019 | 34,087

thanks

so it shows that when prices were on the floor that the amount of houses sold were less than 10% of the peak and a only a third of whats being sold now when apparently there is a massive shortage.

LuckyLloyd

There will definitely be a market at the bottom, there always is. Some people are compelled to sell; and some people have the cash to buy. And banks still lend to high quality applicants borrowing well within their means.

For sure, if you were looking for a small exemption and were reaching for the stars you may not be able to buy what you were after.

maestroamado

skooterblue2 wrote: »

I cant wait to get my passport for St. Kitts and Nevis. :D:D:D

There was probably little choice considering movement in Europe shut-down.
It may be an opportunity to scrutinize this whole system.
If people decide to live and become tax resident in another country and spend majority of their time there that's perfectly ok.
Its the wealthy and successful business people who live here and are tax resident somewhere else i have the problem with.

Cyrus

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There will definitely be a market at the bottom, there always is. Some people are compelled to sell; and some people have the cash to buy. And banks still lend to high quality applicants borrowing well within their means.

For sure, if you were looking for a small exemption and were reaching for the stars you may not be able to buy what you were after.

the majority wont be in a position to buy. a lucky few will and an unfortunate few will have to sell.

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

thanks

so it shows that when prices were on the floor that the amount of houses sold were less than 10% of the peak and a only a third of whats being sold now when apparently there is a massive shortage.

But the peak was total lunacy, loads bought then when they weren't in a good position. The CB has done loads since to try and stop that happening again.

No one who bought when prices were on the floor regretted it, anyone buying now likely will IMO.

LuckyLloyd

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There will definitely be a market at the bottom, there always is. Some people are compelled to sell; and some people have the cash to buy. And banks still lend to high quality applicants borrowing well within their means.

For sure, if you were looking for a small exemption and were reaching for the stars you may not be able to buy what you were after.

Fairly logical view of what might play out if prices drop over the coming months ...... with 500k people on some form of social welfare it's likely there will be a drop.

skooterblue2

maestroamado wrote: »

Its the wealthy and successful business people who live here and are tax resident somewhere else i have the problem with.

This is what happened when we all agreed it was in all our best interest that we have a borderless countries and flexible banking due to deregulation.

Oh wait we didnt agree but it happened anyways.

Marius34

Cyrus wrote: »

the majority wont be in a position to buy. a lucky few will and an unfortunate few will have to sell.

I personally would not think so, I would not expect much of change in Bank regulations this time. And banks are in different position. Couple of the main difference:
Banks today have Capital cushion over 10%, it had very little in 2007.
Bank Loan books are now lower than Deposits. It was opposite before last crisis.

Banks may be very strict in the next few months with new loans, as Bank are currently revising the impact of current crisis.

Browney7

Marius34 wrote: »

Without Top-Ups and Re-Mortgage:

Year | Drawdowns

---

2003 | 94,682
2004 | 103,018
2005 | 110,495
2006 | 110,790
2007 | 84,194
2008 | 53,616
2009 | 25,097
2010 | 18,313
2011 | 11,050
2012 | 14,160
2013 | 13,472
2014 | 20,155
2015 | 23,664
2016 | 24,891
2017 | 29,395
2018 | 32,123
2019 | 34,087

Ah the heady days of the Celtic tiger when every tom dick and Harry accountant and plumber was a property expert was going to get rich taking out two or three mortgages for investment properties and remortgaging their homes to buy holiday homes.

Those figures really show the lunacy of our credit fuelled boom and how this "house prices are x% off peak" parlance in the media really is a nonsense.

voluntary

Marius34 wrote: »

Without Top-Ups and Re-Mortgage:

Year | Drawdowns

---

2003 | 94,682
2004 | 103,018
2005 | 110,495
2006 | 110,790
2007 | 84,194
2008 | 53,616
2009 | 25,097
2010 | 18,313
2011 | 11,050
2012 | 14,160
2013 | 13,472
2014 | 20,155
2015 | 23,664
2016 | 24,891
2017 | 29,395
2018 | 32,123
2019 | 34,087

This is worth looking at. The stock market crashed Sep 2008 and then started recovery in March 2009. Yet, the Irish property market kept falling for the next 4 years.

This shows, that stock market crashes rapidly, but real estate moves slowly, but it's like with the virus. When you flatten the curve, the slower moves just take more time.

Cuddlesworth

voluntary wrote: »

This is worth looking at. The stock market crashed Sep 2008 and then started recovery in March 2009. Yet, the Irish property market kept falling for the next 4 years.

This shows, that stock market crashes rapidly, but real estate moves slowly, but it's like with the virus. When you flatten the curve, the slower moves just take more time.

To be honest, I don't think the stock market is really a indicator of the real world anymore. There seems to be no relationship anymore between a end produced product and stock value.

Yes, but 500k didn't lose their jobs in a month in 2008/2009 and all going well most of that 500k will be back at work this time next year.

Folk will be slower to spend though, and borrow IMO.

Borrowing 400k for a house might have seemed normal and the done thing to a couple earning a combined €120k+ a few months ago. With one or both of them working from home now and the chance that WFH might well be more common going forward folk might well think twice about spending that much on a house in a location close to work when the World might not go back to the way it was.

Graham

voluntary wrote: »

This shows, that stock market crashes rapidly, but real estate moves slowly, but it's like with the virus. When you flatten the curve, the slower moves just take more time.

Or it shows there was massive amounts of unsold property hitting the market at the same time at the start of the last crash.