Property Market 2020

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

Not at all .......... there's quite a bit of irony there.
You are actually claiming I said things I didn't say and when called out on it you spiel on about the jist is this or that.
It's all there in black and white.

called me out? sit easy there cub

i took what you said (again it was prefaced with so many ifs and buts it was open to interpretation) one way, you maintain it was meant slightly differently.

the p1ssy comment that you have made a couple of times now is a pretty juvenile trick to try and illicit some sort of response. Im a bit disappointed in you but ill get over it.

anyway its safe to say we disagree, you think that potentially maybe it could be possible that if people work from home a little more they could concievably want to take smaller mortgages on more remote properties but you arent sure.

i dont really see that happening.

House prices will fall due to uncertainty. New builds will slow again as it wont be economic to build them, supply will contract, demand will increase as people get their confidence back, and hey ho, we get back to where we started.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

@ Marius if I remember correctly up until recently and especially around the bottom 50% of sales were reported to be cash with no mortgage required, Do you know why this is not reflected in the figures.
I think there was an issue around multiple sales being logged as 1 is there any other reason?

It's reflecting in provided data, that around 50% of sales were cash at the bottom. Not sure why you saying not reflecting?

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

.......

the p1ssy comment that you have made a couple of times now is a pretty juvenile trick to try and illicit some sort of response. Im a bit disappointed in you but ill get over it. ..........

Apolgies, p1ssy comment was uncalled for.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

Apolgies, p1ssy comment was uncalled for.

apology accepted

boredatwork82

Currently looking at buying somewhere in the Dublin commuter area. Thankfully I have been lucky enough to continue working through the covid-19 situation.

Just trying to get an idea of where the ball will land on all of this.

How many people who may have been in the housing market will now be ineligible based on losing their jobs and going onto social welfare?

While the supply may drop , I would expect the demand to drop by more than the supply and hence I think a decrease in the price of houses , just not sure by how much. I don't want to throw % around, I think there is too many unknowns for anyone to make an educated guess.

christy G

Do people think there will be a recession? If so will it be as bad as the last time. I'm hoping to build on family land so might get a bit cheaper. Foundation, electrical and plumbing will be done with help from family members and friends in the trade.

Hubertj

Thought this might be the place to come for balanced discussion and debate by normal people. How wrong I was. Seems to be same class that love posting on thejournal. Some proper loons in here.

Definitely the last place to look for advice ideas or worthwhile opinions.

fliball123

Hubertj wrote: »

Thought this might be the place to come for balanced discussion and debate by normal people. How wrong I was. Seems to be same class that love posting on thejournal. Some proper loons in here.

Definitely the last place to look for advice ideas or worthwhile opinions.

Anyone looking for advice this is the last the place having said that no one out there even the so called experts can tell whats going to happen way too many variables

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

Thought this might be the place to come for balanced discussion and debate by normal people. How wrong I was. Seems to be same class that love posting on thejournal. Some proper loons in here.

Definitely the last place to look for advice ideas or worthwhile opinions.

You will get a broad spectrum of posters here- yes, there are some complete and utter loons- alongside some people who very obviously have particular agendas, and lots of others who try to make reasoned and rational debate, in light of the facts as they then have them.

There are also many people who are dipping in and out- trying to get a feel for things, and looking at sentiment and other people's opinions before they try to make up their own minds.

Its very much a mixed kettle of fish- however, if you don't offer anything to the discussion- you can't really complain that it doesn't hold anything for you..........

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

Thought this might be the place to come for balanced discussion and debate by normal people. How wrong I was. Seems to be same class that love posting on thejournal. Some proper loons in here.

Definitely the last place to look for advice ideas or worthwhile opinions.

let me guess you want people to give you an exact timeline of how and when prices will drop and when the right time will be for you to buy a property at the bottom of the market ?

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

You will get a broad spectrum of posters here- yes, there are some complete and utter loons- alongside some people who very obviously have particular agendas, and lots of others who try to make reasoned and rational debate, in light of the facts as they then have them.

There are also many people who are dipping in and out- trying to get a feel for things, and looking at sentiment and other people's opinions before they try to make up their own minds.

Its very much a mixed kettle of fish- however, if you don't offer anything to the discussion- you can't really complain that it doesn't hold anything for you..........

Absolutely agree. I spent some time reading the thread and am amazed at some people and how their brains may work. What strikes me most is that some people are revelling in the fact that this health crisis will negatively impact the property market. Whatever about house or rent prices people will and are losing their jobs and livelihoods as a result. It is nothing to celebrate.

In my uneducated opinion prices will fall over the next 6-9 months with reduced supply and demand due to the uncertainty. Once we get an idea of when\if people start getting back to their jobs things will stabilise. It could be 2022 before we know what the market really looks like. A lot depends on how government, EU and US react in terms of stimulus. Early signs in Europe have been positive in my opinion.

Hubertj

Cyrus wrote: »

let me guess you want people to give you an exact timeline of how and when prices will drop and when the right time will be for you to buy a property at the bottom of the market ?

And if they can tell me tomorrow’s euromillions numbers wheel they are at it that would be fantastic. I’m not in property apart from the family home. Came here more out of interest given some of the hysteria around housing and rent over last 2 years.

guyfawkes5

christy G wrote: »

Do people think there will be a recession? If so will it be as bad as the last time. I'm hoping to build on family land so might get a bit cheaper. Foundation, electrical and plumbing will be done with help from family members and friends in the trade.

A recession seems very probable, the positive estimates say that the economy will begin recovering late this year and the negative estimates say starting late next year. No economist or expert I've seen has said it will be as bad as 2008 in terms of needing many years to unwind fully (although the short term drop in employment will be worse, most economists expect most of this to be temporary and to rebound quickly).

Melanchthon

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

A recession seems very probable, the positive estimates say that the economy will begin recovering late this year and the negative estimates say starting late next year. No economist or expert I've seen has said it will be as bad as 2008 in terms of needing many years to unwind fully (although the short term drop in employment will be worse, most economists expect most of this to be temporary and to rebound quickly).

Can we even talk long term like this though at the minute, Spain, Italy and Greece were already on shakey ground financially before this and are now most likely to loose the entire tourism revenues this summer that's 10-15% of Spain's GDP wiped out at a time when there is other economic shocks happening.

What's going to happen in the Eurozone?

Reversal

Cyrus wrote: »

Most of the cohort you mention above will be back to work in a month or 6 weeks aswell
.

Any predictions I’ve seen from ESRi, CB, EY and KBC. All suggest that around half of The job losses are going to be permanent. And going into 2021 unemployment will still be over at least 10%. I’d admire your optimism though, but it’s just not credible at this point. That damage is done.

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

They didn't really , anyone who didn't need to sell didn't , it was a non functioning market for the most part

What's a non functioning market for you?
During recession there was Supply and Demand, that's all you need for a market to function. If anything, the lack of credit from the banks kept the market real, nobody could buy outside of they possibility. Usually when banks lend money that's when you see prices going through the roof

guyfawkes5

Melanchthon wrote: »

Can we even talk long term like this though at the minute, Spain, Italy and Greece were already on shakey ground financially before this and are now most likely to loose the entire tourism revenues this summer that's 10-15% of Spain's GDP wiped out at a time when there is other economic shocks happening.

What's going to happen in the Eurozone?

There is a lot of uncertainty, but you can see what Eurozone countries are doing at the moment. A lot of how Spain and Italy handle the aftermath will be effected by whether or not they successfully get Germany and Holland to issue collective EU bonds.

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

What's a non functioning market for you?
During recession there was Supply and Demand, that's all you need for a market to function. If anything, the lack of credit from the banks kept the market real, nobody could buy outside of they possibility. Usually when banks lend money that's when you see prices going through the roof

There was no new stock (as no one was building) and most sales were forced, so there wasnt a consistent flow of product,

Added to that most couldnt access credit meant the odd person got a bargain where they didnt need a mortgage, there was also people would could borrow and again the odd one got a bargain, but either you needed to be lucky or not very fussy about what you got as supply was massively constrained.

Cyrus

Reversal wrote: »

Any predictions I’ve seen from ESRi, CB, EY and KBC. All suggest that around half of The job losses are going to be permanent. And going into 2021 unemployment will still be over at least 10%. I’d admire your optimism though, but it’s just not credible at this point. That damage is done.

lets see, it all depends how long it goes on for. If its another couple of weeks do you really think every bar, restaurant, hotel and car dealership will have gone out of business and the jobs will be gone?

if its another 3 months then the scenario you outline is more likely i would agree.

The_Conductor

Reversal wrote: »

Any predictions I’ve seen from ESRi, CB, EY and KBC. All suggest that around half of The job losses are going to be permanent. And going into 2021 unemployment will still be over at least 10%. I’d admire your optimism though, but it’s just not credible at this point. That damage is done.

Even the people who do go back to work- aren't going to spend their disposable income as they might once have done. Anyone who is sane will try to solidify their finances, pay down debt, make sure that they're not as stretched if they end up in a similar situation again (and there could very well be a second or even a third surge of Covid, before vaccinations eventually become available).

Anyone who imagines that the lockdown will be over in a couple of weeks and life will go back to normal, is a hopeless optimist, and while its nice that there are optimistic people out there, you have to be realistic.

I was listening to Radio 1 this morning- a spokesperson for the CIF said we have 26k residential units at various stages of construction in the pipeline. If/when the lockdown ends- the majority of these will once again be manned and brought forward. What is far less clear is whether new sites will be started on, as we might have expected earlier this year, before everything went to hell on a broomstick.

In a situation where people fundamentally change their borrowing and spending habits- and governments have to pay down their debts (with the possible exception of the US- where the dollar continues to operate as the default reserve currency)- the global economy is going to take a long long time to recover.

Historically the US has been the global consumer of last resort- a market where the rest of the world could dump whatever they produce at whatever price they can get- if there is no market for it elsewhere. However, the dichotomy that has emerged there over the last few years, means it would be very dangerous for anyone to imagine that the US will bail out the global economy as it might once have done.

Protectionism is growing- even in the context of the individual countries who make up the single market of the EU. The lasting legacy of Covid may be a realisation that countries cannot rely on other countries having a joint interest in each other's betterment (as evidenced by France, Germany, Spain, Italy and The US- at various stages, blocking vital aid to each other, or even in some instances practising what can only be described as piracy against one another).

Things are never going to be the same again- there will be a new 'normal', but I suspect it will be a lot more insular and local in nature- than the global view a lot of countries, including Ireland, held such a short time ago.

In the context of the Irish property market- what would constitute a 'new normal'. Almost certainly- demand will weaken, supply will weaken, credit will tighten, and presumably, rents will fall (reducing the imperative for many people to own property).

We may have a young population- which will help us in the immediate future- but the picture as close as 10 years down the road, paints a very different picture. Our social welfare state- was hopelessly unaffordable- even before Covid broke out- we've bailed it out temporarily with borrowed money- this is something we won't be able to do going forwards- even as the number of +/>66 people looks set to double by 2029 (CSO projections).

This may be the one off opportunity that an incoming government uses to implement some really odious policies- safe in the knowledge that they can sell it as prudently investing in the future of the country- and anyone who tries to sell completely unaffordable social dreams to people, may be seen by more people as charlatans and purveyors of smoke and mirrors.

The recovery will be what we make it- and in an Irish context, our capacity to recover from the mess may be better than the capacity of many of our neighbours- but by God, it is going to hurt, and we most certainly are not going to return to our old 'normal'.

Reversal

Cyrus wrote: »

lets see, it all depends how long it goes on for. If its another couple of weeks do you really think every bar, restaurant, hotel and car dealership will have gone out of business and the jobs will be gone?

if its another 3 months then the scenario you outline is more likely i would agree.

True. Whenever we reach the peak here you'd have to think 'lockdown' will be in place for a couple of weeks after that. Then restrictions will be slowly lifted in layers, slowly to observe the impact. Very hard to see non essential business opening before July at earliest, unfortunately.

topmanamillion

Cyrus wrote: »

lets see, it all depends how long it goes on for. If its another couple of weeks do you really think every bar, restaurant, hotel and car dealership will have gone out of business and the jobs will be gone?

if its another 3 months then the scenario you outline is more likely i would agree.

There will absolutely be permanent job loses from this.

The best case scenerio is businesses can open as normal in mid-May (highly unlikely).

Even then small independent retailers will need some sort of state aid to reopen and restock, it'll be the equivalent of launching a new business with zero income to draw on for at least 2 months.

The tourism industry has taken a massive hit, particularly hotels. Their advanced booking are wiped out for the next year and people are going to be wary about travel with the inevitable talk of a "second wave".

Car dealerships will be looking at showrooms full of 201 cars (essentially last years models). Another financial hit to be taken here.

Then there's the businesses that were just hand to mouth anyway. Even If they can drawdown some sort of state aid they may well just cut their loses.

Then there's the state expenditure - massively inflated healthcare and welfare budgets with little VAT and income tax coming in.
That will have to be paid for and the most likely revenue stream is increased tax.

Cyrus

Reversal wrote: »

True. Whenever we reach the peak here you'd have to think 'lockdown' will be in place for a couple of weeks after that. Then restrictions will be slowly lifted in layers, slowly to observe the impact. Very hard to see non essential business opening before July at earliest, unfortunately.

i think we will see restrictions lifted within the next 4 weeks, i dont think a lockdown to July in the western europe has a hope of being successful.

I also dont think there will be a vaccine for Covid19, or if there is it will take 2 years plus, we can stall the world that long or anything like it.

Cyrus

topmanamillion wrote: »

There will absolutely be permanent job loses from this.

The best case scenerio is businesses can open as normal in mid-May (highly unlikely).

Even then small independent retailers will need some sort of state aid to reopen and restock, it'll be the equivalent of launching a new business with zero income to draw on for at least 2 months.

The tourism industry has taken a massive hit, particularly hotels. Their advanced booking are wiped out for the next year and people are going to be wary about travel with the inevitable talk of a "second wave".

Car dealerships will be looking at showrooms full of 201 cars (essentially last years models). Another financial hit to be taken here.

Then there's the businesses that were just hand to mouth anyway. Even If they can drawdown some sort of state aid they may well just cut their loses.

Then there's the state expenditure - massively inflated healthcare and welfare budgets with little VAT and income tax coming in.
That will have to be paid for and the most likely revenue stream is increased tax.

Well given the picture you painted who will pay this increased tax

of course there will be permanent job losses i wasnt saying that there wouldnt be, its the number of them that id debate,

Also how are 201 cars last years model?

Cyrus

The_Conductor wrote: »

Even the people who do go back to work- aren't going to spend their disposable income as they might once have done. Anyone who is sane will try to solidify their finances, pay down debt, make sure that they're not as stretched if they end up in a similar situation again (and there could very well be a second or even a third surge of Covid, before vaccinations eventually become available).

Anyone who imagines that the lockdown will be over in a couple of weeks and life will go back to normal, is a hopeless optimist, and while its nice that there are optimistic people out there, you have to be realistic.

I was listening to Radio 1 this morning- a spokesperson for the CIF said we have 26k residential units at various stages of construction in the pipeline. If/when the lockdown ends- the majority of these will once again be manned and brought forward. What is far less clear is whether new sites will be started on, as we might have expected earlier this year, before everything went to hell on a broomstick.

In a situation where people fundamentally change their borrowing and spending habits- and governments have to pay down their debts (with the possible exception of the US- where the dollar continues to operate as the default reserve currency)- the global economy is going to take a long long time to recover.

Historically the US has been the global consumer of last resort- a market where the rest of the world could dump whatever they produce at whatever price they can get- if there is no market for it elsewhere. However, the dichotomy that has emerged there over the last few years, means it would be very dangerous for anyone to imagine that the US will bail out the global economy as it might once have done.

Protectionism is growing- even in the context of the individual countries who make up the single market of the EU. The lasting legacy of Covid may be a realisation that countries cannot rely on other countries having a joint interest in each other's betterment (as evidenced by France, Germany, Spain, Italy and The US- at various stages, blocking vital aid to each other, or even in some instances practising what can only be described as piracy against one another).

Things are never going to be the same again- there will be a new 'normal', but I suspect it will be a lot more insular and local in nature- than the global view a lot of countries, including Ireland, held such a short time ago.

In the context of the Irish property market- what would constitute a 'new normal'. Almost certainly- demand will weaken, supply will weaken, credit will tighten, and presumably, rents will fall (reducing the imperative for many people to own property).

We may have a young population- which will help us in the immediate future- but the picture as close as 10 years down the road, paints a very different picture. Our social welfare state- was hopelessly unaffordable- even before Covid broke out- we've bailed it out temporarily with borrowed money- this is something we won't be able to do going forwards- even as the number of +/>66 people looks set to double by 2029 (CSO projections).

This may be the one off opportunity that an incoming government uses to implement some really odious policies- safe in the knowledge that they can sell it as prudently investing in the future of the country- and anyone who tries to sell completely unaffordable social dreams to people, may be seen by more people as charlatans and purveyors of smoke and mirrors.

The recovery will be what we make it- and in an Irish context, our capacity to recover from the mess may be better than the capacity of many of our neighbours- but by God, it is going to hurt, and we most certainly are not going to return to our old 'normal'.

again you underestimate peoples ability to move and forget the past, to put things in perspective we have been dealing with this thing in the west for 6 weeks or so, not 6 months. If it continues for 6 months some of what you outline above may come to pass, but lets see.

The alternative, less palatable view point is that if there isnt a vaccine and if herd immunity isnt a thing, life expectancy will shorten and we as a nation wont have to worry so much about who pays the pensions as there will be less of us around to collect on them.

PommieBast

The_Conductor wrote: »

This may be the one off opportunity that an incoming government uses to implement some really odious policies- safe in the knowledge that they can sell it as prudently investing in the future of the country- and anyone who tries to sell completely unaffordable social dreams to people, may be seen by more people as charlatans and purveyors of smoke and mirrors.

Doubt it. For many such reforms the 2011 bailout was the opportunity.

Dylan94

I've been following this thread quite a while as was planning to buy towards the end of this year around Dublin.

I dont think that there will be huge 20% plus price drops, but I also don't think that there will be no price drops. I would expect that 2nd hand houses will fall by a very maximum of 15% over the next 9-12 months and as the economy repairs it will likely go back to around current prices soon after.

I dont think that the supply of new houses would completely dry up, since most of the larger developers ready have vast amounts of land bought and won't just stop building, the shareholders wouldn't be happy. They will build for a lower profit rather than no profit at all. Although I would expect new build prices to have an even smaller drop, maybe 5-7% max in the Dublin area. Probably even less so outside of Dublin. Since this isn't likely going to last too many years, I would suspect that it would be cheaper/more profitable to just keep going through it at a lower margin and I suspect we will see even less houses offering extras such as flooring included. They will find other ways to cut back to keep profits up.

GreeBo

kevinc565 wrote: »

Journey time is approximately the same to O'Connell bridge (40-50 minutes)

Houses still going for €1.2m out in Carrickmines. Obviously not representative etc

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-carrickmines-avenue-carrickmines-wood-carrickmines-dublin-18/4337116

Jaysus, why would you pay that to live in Carrickmines when you could get something for the same price, same sort of house in a much better location?
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/22-brighton-place-brighton-road-foxrock-dublin-18/4419939
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/28-merlyn-road-ballsbridge-dublin-4-do4-yit2/4418869
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/23-rathdown-park-dublin-6w-dublin-d6wdt28/4331310

Browney7

Dylan94 wrote: »

I've been following this thread quite a while as was planning to buy towards the end of this year around Dublin.

I dont think that there will be huge 20% plus price drops, but I also don't think that there will be no price drops. I would expect that 2nd hand houses will fall by a very maximum of 15% over the next 9-12 months and as the economy repairs it will likely go back to around current prices soon after.

I dont think that the supply of new houses would completely dry up, since most of the larger developers ready have vast amounts of land bought and won't just stop building, the shareholders wouldn't be happy. They will build for a lower profit rather than no profit at all. Although I would expect new build prices to have an even smaller drop, maybe 5-7% max in the Dublin area. Probably even less so outside of Dublin. Since this isn't likely going to last too many years, I would suspect that it would be cheaper/more profitable to just keep going through it at a lower margin and I suspect we will see even less houses offering extras such as flooring included. They will find other ways to cut back to keep profits up.

They'll probably lobby government to reduce VAT and levies and the likes and to reduce building standards with a view to "solving the housing crisis" and keeping construction workers in jobs but more so that they can keep their margins juicy

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

Even the people who do go back to work- aren't going to spend their disposable income as they might once have done. Anyone who is sane will try to solidify their finances, pay down debt, make sure that they're not as stretched if they end up in a similar situation again (and there could very well be a second or even a third surge of Covid, before vaccinations eventually become available).

Anyone who imagines that the lockdown will be over in a couple of weeks and life will go back to normal, is a hopeless optimist, and while its nice that there are optimistic people out there, you have to be realistic.

I was listening to Radio 1 this morning- a spokesperson for the CIF said we have 26k residential units at various stages of construction in the pipeline. If/when the lockdown ends- the majority of these will once again be manned and brought forward. What is far less clear is whether new sites will be started on, as we might have expected earlier this year, before everything went to hell on a broomstick.

In a situation where people fundamentally change their borrowing and spending habits- and governments have to pay down their debts (with the possible exception of the US- where the dollar continues to operate as the default reserve currency)- the global economy is going to take a long long time to recover.

Historically the US has been the global consumer of last resort- a market where the rest of the world could dump whatever they produce at whatever price they can get- if there is no market for it elsewhere. However, the dichotomy that has emerged there over the last few years, means it would be very dangerous for anyone to imagine that the US will bail out the global economy as it might once have done.

Protectionism is growing- even in the context of the individual countries who make up the single market of the EU. The lasting legacy of Covid may be a realisation that countries cannot rely on other countries having a joint interest in each other's betterment (as evidenced by France, Germany, Spain, Italy and The US- at various stages, blocking vital aid to each other, or even in some instances practising what can only be described as piracy against one another).

Things are never going to be the same again- there will be a new 'normal', but I suspect it will be a lot more insular and local in nature- than the global view a lot of countries, including Ireland, held such a short time ago.

In the context of the Irish property market- what would constitute a 'new normal'. Almost certainly- demand will weaken, supply will weaken, credit will tighten, and presumably, rents will fall (reducing the imperative for many people to own property).

We may have a young population- which will help us in the immediate future- but the picture as close as 10 years down the road, paints a very different picture. Our social welfare state- was hopelessly unaffordable- even before Covid broke out- we've bailed it out temporarily with borrowed money- this is something we won't be able to do going forwards- even as the number of +/>66 people looks set to double by 2029 (CSO projections).

This may be the one off opportunity that an incoming government uses to implement some really odious policies- safe in the knowledge that they can sell it as prudently investing in the future of the country- and anyone who tries to sell completely unaffordable social dreams to people, may be seen by more people as charlatans and purveyors of smoke and mirrors.

The recovery will be what we make it- and in an Irish context, our capacity to recover from the mess may be better than the capacity of many of our neighbours- but by God, it is going to hurt, and we most certainly are not going to return to our old 'normal'.

Should you not caveat this post by stating it is an opinion not supported by any facts? Terrible attitude even if you think you are being “realistic”