Property Market 2020

cd76

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again you have no experience at this as we have never had a pandemic like this so your experience is null and void and it reckless trying to tell people to sell or people to buy. If you have FACT put it up and let people make up their own mind. Well I have had a few failed bids on properties over the last 6 months and guess what no EA has rang me back. So how can you tell what is the norm?

.. Thank you for your observation. They is what I am sharing. and yes I have plenty of experience in the property market. The EA engagement I have had has come from a number of EAs. Let's see in July what the level of the descent will be.

JJJackal

cd76 wrote: »

.. Thank you for your observation. They is what I am sharing. and yes I have plenty of experience in the property market. The EA engagement I have had has come from a number of EAs. Let's see in July what the level of the descent will be.

I personally think September will be a good indicator month.

Likely out of covid, students back (and others so more demand)...

fliball123

cd76 wrote: »

.. Thank you for your observation. They is what I am sharing. and yes I have plenty of experience in the property market. The EA engagement I have had has come from a number of EAs. Let's see in July what the level of the descent will be.

So have you experience with a global pandemic?? Yes or No?

Once again I have put in a number of offers to 3/4 EAs and as recent as the end of Jan and I have heard nothing back?

I may hear something back but my gut is telling me that the market is paralysed and only those who need to sell will sell and those in a position to buy (cash or with a Mortgage approval) will buy .. The problem here is both of these cohorts will be dwindling by the day.

beauf

fliball123 wrote: »

Just some posts on here saying BOi and a bother of mine was looking to get a mortgage from UB no proof as such if you want it go ask for a mortgage. Apparently there is not even enough staff to conduct new mortgage business with all the businesses looking for loans to operate through the virus

I read the same posts. But shortage of staff is very different than implying its official policy. Not saying that it isn't going to become official policy. But its questionable (viral like) to leave out the context.

JJJackal

fliball123 wrote: »

So have you experience with a global pandemic?? Yes or No?

Once again I have put in a number of offers to 3/4 EAs and as recent as the end of Jan and I have heard nothing back?

I may hear something back but my gut is telling me that the market is paralysed and only those who need to sell will sell and those in a position to buy (cash or with a Mortgage approval) will buy .. The problem here is both of these cohorts will be dwindling by the day.

Mortgage approval will be decreasing by the day; also suspect alot of banks wont release the money at this time

fliball123

beauf wrote: »

I read the same posts. But shortage of staff is very different than implying its official policy. Not saying that it isn't going to become official policy. But its questionable (viral like) to leave out the context.

Well if you go for a mortgage and are told we have not got the staff to process it is that not official. Not saying it will last long and not saying that it will be lifted but the banks will protect themselves a lot better than they did last time and that would mean little or no risky lending during a pandemic. That is obvious as all lending during this period is risky

beauf

fliball123 wrote: »

So have you experience with a global pandemic?? Yes or No?

Once again I have put in a number of offers to 3/4 EAs and as recent as the end of Jan and I have heard nothing back?

I may hear something back but my gut is telling me that the market is paralysed and only those who need to sell will sell and those in a position to buy (cash or with a Mortgage approval) will buy .. The problem here is both of these cohorts will be dwindling by the day.

..Lots of bad EAs before the crisis...

The ones I know are snowed under dealing with rental issues. Both genuine and bogus. A lot of people are also tied up sorting out their own personal situations and families etc.

Zenify

Hubertj wrote: »

Ah ok you’re just making up numbers based on hearsay and lies. I’ll educate myself elsewhere

Hi Hubertj, are you new here? Welcome. You seem to fit in pretty well with the discussion and attitudes here. You seem to have just joined and now you are going elsewhere?

It has been previously posted that Davy expect prices to drop by 20%, this was done last month before we knew how long this was going to go on so 30% isn't "hearsay" IMO anyway. Davy are also a vested interest in property so their reports are usually a little "rosy" towards property. These are my opinions, please dont call them lies like you have to other posters.

fliball123

beauf wrote: »

..Lots of bad EAs before the crisis...

The ones I know are snowed under dealing with rental issues. Both genuine and bogus. A lot of people are also tied up sorting out their own personal situations and families etc.

Hang on its now week 4 (is it week 4 slowly losing it here) EAs will have a lot to do with rentals but if you had a property up for sale and it fell through, your not going to leave a wad of cash due to you sitting there, rentals are a pittance to what an EA would make in a sale. Surely any property that a buyer has pulled out of at the very least the EA will have contacted the sellers?

coolshannagh28

cd76 wrote: »

I've stated these as my observations not facts as they are in the future. It is based on my experiences having been through multiple property cycles both in the UK and Ireland. Up to any reader if they want to go ahead and buy now or not. Get clearer day by day that the market is crashing and general consensus that at least a 30% correction is imminent

Id agree ,have been there and got the scars and when confidence evaporates the only way is down and 30 % is not an unreasonable expectation if it stops at that .

Hubertj

Zenify wrote: »

Hi Hubertj, are you new here? Welcome. You seem to fit in pretty well with the discussion and attitudes here. You seem to have just joined and now you are going elsewhere?

It has been previously posted that Davy expect prices to drop by 20%, this was done last month before we knew how long this was going to go on so 30% isn't "hearsay" IMO anyway. Davy are also a vested interest in property so their reports are usually a little "rosy" towards property. These are my opinions, please dont call them lies like you have to other posters.

Calm down princess. I read the Davy report. It was based on available information. The other lad is making numbers up as he goes along. He’s clearly lying. If he is such an experienced investor why was he bidding on overpriced property? He’s probably doing his homework now before mum calls him for dinner

fliball123

Zenify wrote: »

Hi Hubertj, are you new here? Welcome. You seem to fit in pretty well with the discussion and attitudes here. You seem to have just joined and now you are going elsewhere?

It has been previously posted that Davy expect prices to drop by 20%, this was done last month before we knew how long this was going to go on so 30% isn't "hearsay" IMO anyway. Davy are also a vested interest in property so their reports are usually a little "rosy" towards property. These are my opinions, please dont call them lies like you have to other posters.

I would consider the source there Davys were predicting a 2% plus rise in property as recently as mid Jan 2020

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/home-prices-will-rise-as-brexit-fears-ease-davy-38855030.html

Once again I stat davys as well as anyone else have no insight into this as they have never been through a pandemic, no one knows what knock on effects decisions will have on property as a lot of these decisions have not been made yet? Its all guess work

beauf

fliball123 wrote: »

....Surely any property that a buyer has pulled out of at the very least the EA will have contacted the sellers?

That's a very specific scenario. The ones I've been taking are still closing sales. But I still have to chase them as I've always done. But there are selling properties that are priced right. or in areas where there is very little supply. Even before this there were a lot of over priced properties especially new builds, and more have come on the market now. They continue to not sell. I am seeing houses going sale agreed and sold in the last few weeks. But they tend to be the 270~350 range of older stock in established areas. Perhaps these were transactions started 6~8 weeks and are only closing now. But I've only noticed them now.

beauf

fliball123 wrote: »

I would consider the source there Davys were predicting a 2% plus rise in property as recently as mid Jan 2020

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/home-prices-will-rise-as-brexit-fears-ease-davy-38855030.html

Once again I stat davys as well as anyone else have no insight into this as they have never been through a pandemic, no one knows what knock on effects decisions will have on property as a lot of these decisions have not been made yet? Its all guess work

Are you living in a bubble. In Jan they didn't know this was going to go worldwide (thanks China) its all changed since.

fliball123

beauf wrote: »

That's a very specific scenario. The ones I've been taking are still closing sales. But I still have to chase them as I've always done. But there are selling properties that are priced right. or in areas where there is very little supply. Even before this there were a lot of over priced properties especially new builds, and more have come on the market now. They continue to not sell. I am seeing houses going sale agreed and sold in the last few weeks. But they tend to be the 270~350 range of older stock in established areas. Perhaps these were transactions started 6~8 weeks and are only closing now. But I've only noticed them now.

Are you not telling everyone if they are buying to hold off so the scenario I outlined is exactly the people who your targeting?

fliball123

beauf wrote: »

Are you living in a bubble. In Jan they didn't know this was going to go worldwide (thanks China) its all changed since.

Sorry in Jan it had already spread to a number of different countries and all flights to dublin were going gangbusters..So why didnt Davy see this coming? I know its all changed but the fact is not you nor I nor Davys or Billy phucking Barry know what will happen as it has never happened before.

beauf

fliball123 wrote: »

Are you not telling everyone if they are buying to hold off so the scenario I outlined is exactly the people who your targeting?

I'm saying it depends on your situation. There are situations where you should close the deal and others where you should forget it for at least 2 years.

fliball123

beauf wrote: »

I'm saying it depends on your situation. There are situations where you should close the deal and others where you should forget it for at least 2 years.

Ah ok maybe I misread what you were saying I just think people should stop pretending to be experts and saying this will definitely happen when no one knows. People if they have facts put them up. If they have heard something such as one person saying multiple EAs have contacted them maybe they could be a bit more specific with the EA and the property?

cd76

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again you have no experience at this as we have never had a pandemic like this so your experience is null and void and it reckless trying to tell people to sell or people to buy. If you have FACT put it up and let people make up their own mind. Well I have had a few failed bids on properties over the last 6 months and guess what no EA has rang me back. So how can you tell what is the norm?

Yes, the facts are as I have already posted. Calm down. You don't have to accept them if you don't want. You're choice. Lets see in July what the market is doing.

beauf

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry in Jan it had already spread to a number of different countries and all flights to dublin were going gangbusters..So why didnt Davy see this coming? I know its all changed but the fact is not you nor I nor Davys or Billy phucking Barry know what will happen as it has never happened before.

I'll agree to disagree.

cd76

JJJackal wrote: »

I personally think September will be a good indicator month.

Likely out of covid, students back (and others so more demand)...

Fair enough, that makes sense. the student factor will be relatively minor as it looks like the leaving cert will be going ahead and therefore 3rd level numbers will be normal come end of Sept.

cd76

fliball123 wrote: »

So have you experience with a global pandemic?? Yes or No?

Once again I have put in a number of offers to 3/4 EAs and as recent as the end of Jan and I have heard nothing back?

I may hear something back but my gut is telling me that the market is paralysed and only those who need to sell will sell and those in a position to buy (cash or with a Mortgage approval) will buy .. The problem here is both of these cohorts will be dwindling by the day.

What I have outlined are my experience (not sure how many times i need to repeat this). Best of luck with your investing.

fliball123

beauf wrote: »

I'll agree to disagree.

ok oh wise one give me some knowledge what are you predicting ?

Bigmac1euro

I think people need to relax but I do understand tensions are high in this thread with everything that’s going on.
Now.


It’s obvious we’re heading for a crash IMO.
Everything will slow right down and prices will fall but throwing a percentage out is like comparing apples with oranges.

I am currently pursuing a property.
I had bid on a fair few and I’ve received nothing back as most went sale agreed and I was outbid.

I have noticed a few that where sale agreed have come back on the market though I hadn’t bid on these ones.

I viewed a property the day of the official lockdown announcement and I’m surprised the EA hasn’t been in touch as we were the only couple to view afaik.

I will bid on this house 10% below asking and cross my fingers.

My main worry is the bank honouring my AIP
My AIP has been underwritten with salary multiple exemption.
Not sure what to do tbh. Do I continue to wait as I can’t see that property moving anytime soon or do I jump now and risk the banks not actually honouring AIP due to pandemic still going strong...

Heiser

I think that people that have negotiated a nice discount and still pull out are mad. Even if you go sale agreed now it'll be what 6-8 weeks before you sign contracts. It will be a lot clearer then as to where we are at then. If you pull out now and wait a year that's another 15k or so in rent, if prices didn't fall to your discounted price in that period you'd be sickened. It's not that big a deal if they fall back 10% if you're renting anyway.

I bought in 2014 just as the x3.5 lending rules were coming in, people were telling me I was mad to buy then as the prices would drop. I thought about pulling out, but I wanted to get on with my life so I went ahead. Thank God I did as I wouldnt of got a house like I did a year later with the way prices continued to rise

Nobody knows how this will pan out but I think people thinking there will be 30% drop in price are deluded

Marius34

Zenify wrote: »

Hi Hubertj, are you new here? Welcome. You seem to fit in pretty well with the discussion and attitudes here. You seem to have just joined and now you are going elsewhere?

It has been previously posted that Davy expect prices to drop by 20%, this was done last month before we knew how long this was going to go on so 30% isn't "hearsay" IMO anyway. Davy are also a vested interest in property so their reports are usually a little "rosy" towards property. These are my opinions, please dont call them lies like you have to other posters.

I'm not sure Davy ever predicted 20% to fall in property price. I haven't seen anywhere in their predictions.
The only information I saw some media taking things out of context.
What I read is not exactly their forecast:

"A note from Colin Sheridan, analyst with Irish brokers Davy, says that the two Dublin-listed house builders Cairn Homes and Glenveagh Properties are resilient enough to withstand the pandemic in the short term.
Mr Sheridan says the sharp fall in both companies’ share prices since coronavirus struck indicates that the market has factored in “declines in house prices of maybe 15 to 20 per cent”, along with a halving of land values.
Cairn’s shares were trading at close to 67 cent on Tuesday morning, compared to €1.22 at the beginning of the month.
Glenveagh’s stock was priced at around 47.45 cent on Tuesday, down from 77 cent on the first day of trading in March."

Today Cairn's is up to 78 cent, Glenveagh up to 55 cent. Means it would not be anymore as big fall of 15%-20% in his equation, based on those 2 companies stock price.

lomb

It's quite possible the banks would decline a drawdown ( Sunday independent article and broker info) so ensure solicitors are inserting a clause that the deposit is fully refundable of the bank declines drawdown of pre agreed funds.

I would say certain property will fall same as always supply/demand. Any pricey house at 550+ is suspect for sure.

With the rest much depends on the banks and access to credit. Going forward it could be a quick recovery or it could take 4-5 years no one knows. If there's a second surge and the economy shuts again for 2 months there could be a depression.

wassie

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Do I continue to wait as I can’t see that property moving anytime soon or do I jump now and risk the banks not actually honouring AIP due to pandemic still going strong...

How the banks react with regard to policy changes is anyone's guess. But I would be taking a view that the banks will be very keen to lend after this has passed given they are potentially going to have access to a lot of cheap funding to lend out. Hopefully we may even see cheaper mortgages on the way.

Heiser wrote: »

I bought in 2014 just as the x3.5 lending rules were coming in, people were telling me I was mad to buy then as the prices would drop. I thought about pulling out, but I wanted to get on with my life so I went ahead. Thank God I did as I wouldnt of got a house like I did a year later with the way prices continued to rise

Nobody knows how this will pan out but I think people thinking there will be 30% drop in price are deluded

I think the timing & economics of buying your own home are very different to purchasing an investment property as you have alluded to. Over the long term it doesn't really matter if the value of your own house rises or falls. As long as you can pay your mortgage without pain, you have shelter and security.

Hubertj

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm not sure Davy ever predicted 20% to fall in property price. I haven't seen anywhere in their predictions.
The only information I saw some media taking things out of context.
What I read is not exactly their forecast:

"A note from Colin Sheridan, analyst with Irish brokers Davy, says that the two Dublin-listed house builders Cairn Homes and Glenveagh Properties are resilient enough to withstand the pandemic in the short term.
Mr Sheridan says the sharp fall in both companies’ share prices since coronavirus struck indicates that the market has factored in “declines in house prices of maybe 15 to 20 per cent”, along with a halving of land values.
Cairn’s shares were trading at close to 67 cent on Tuesday morning, compared to €1.22 at the beginning of the month.
Glenveagh’s stock was priced at around 47.45 cent on Tuesday, down from 77 cent on the first day of trading in March."

Today Cairn's is up to 78 cent, Glenveagh up to 55 cent. Means it would not be anymore as big fall of 15%-20% in his equation, based on those 2 companies stock price.

Ooooh facts. Thank you. Do you know why land values would decrease in value so much more than property prices?

beauf

Hubertj wrote: »

Ooooh facts. Thank you. Do you know why land values would decrease in value so much more than property prices?

No building = less demand for land. I assume?