Property Market 2020

IndieRoar111

AmberGold wrote: »

I’ve been seriously burned in the property market before so I’d like to think I know a little about what’s going through prospective purchasers heads.

Firstly the economy is on its knees, nobody is buying or selling a thing other than food producers and pharmacists.

Don’t listen to Estate Agents they’re in survival mode and will spin any story to keep you on the hook.

This will take a year at least to play out and business,
builders and estate agents will go to the wall if they don’t have cash resources.

If it was me I’d sit back and wait, don’t listen to that voice inside your head convincing you all will be grand.

At the very worst you could find yourself buying a house and entering negative equity day one. Alternatively you could buy the house you want 25% cheaper by waiting.

Personally I’d hate to be selling a house currently.

This.

Listen to this poster guys and think critically about those posting who are in complete denial about this global economic depression causing the property market to tank. These people are either Estate agents and/or sellers who are taking to this place as a last resort as they clearly have vested interests in keeping prices artificially inflated.

You will notice they will shame anyone who posts about price reductions currently in the market and anyone who predicts a significant drop and ironically claiming these people have a vested interest lol, well guess what there is no need for prospective buyers to lie about price reductions, the market is about to fall off a cliff and it doesn't take supposed "liars" on boards to convince the general public that the writing is on the wall.

awec

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Out pointing and sputtering at people who have observed price reductions within the market again i see. You obviously have vested interest in property as anyone who mentions a drop you quickly smear them.

What is it about a impending global economic depression leading to a drop in property prices that you don't understand?

Just calling out the nonsense. Some good posters on here offering both sides of the coin, unfortunately some like yourself who are just making things up.

A few weeks ago it was your brother in law getting the bargain, then it was a couple your husband knows, then your vendor was negotiating their own sale price downward, and you were buying, but then you weren't. It's really hard to keep up with your ever changing reality.

You were buying a house worth 395k apparently too, but just a week earlier it was worth 345k. Then you were renting at 1500 a month, but that suddenly became 1300 a month a few days later. Your deposit was 175k at one point, then 160k, it's like nothing at all is real...

You sold in 2018 apparently. But 9 months ago you were telling us you were trying to sell a house. You were living with family after you sold in 2018, but then telling us how you would move in with family instead of renting to save money.

fliball123

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

This.

Listen to this poster guys and think critically about those posting who are in complete denial about this global economic depression causing the property market to tank. These people are either Estate agents and/or sellers who are taking to this place as a last resort as they clearly have vested interests in keeping prices artificially inflated.

You will notice they will shame anyone who posts about price reductions currently in the market and anyone who predicts a significant drop and ironically claiming these people have a vested interest lol, well guess what there is no need for prospective buyers to lie about price reductions, the market is about to fall off a cliff and it doesn't take supposed "liars" on boards
to convince the general public that the writing is on the wall.

This is a 2 way street and anyone saying prices wont drop people who have been looking for a bargain for the last 4/5 years jump down their throat.

All I will say is any market like property is mainly driven by basic economic principle of supply and demand and unlike the last crash we had an over supply. There are also a number of things happening that is hitting both demand and supply and the property market is now no longer considered normal.

Personally if I was buying I would be holding on for another few weeks/months and seeing how it goes and if I was selling I would pull my property off the market and wait till corona has blown over and see what way the market is.

Put in layman term if you have 2 houses and 10 people need a house the price will rise if you have 10 houses and 2 buyers prices will fall. the thing is no one knows the figure or future figure of people buying or selling. This has always been the case and usually the past historic trends are what makes up peoples opinions and the market follows. However no one can state they have experienced this before as we have never seen it. No one can say for sure that its going to be 15 or 30% drops on the basis of one off hearsay evidence. Like I say I think the majority of buyers and sellers will be either pulling out of buying and selling or in buyers cases be locked out of the market for the forseeable future due to mortgages being refused

Claw Hammer

GreeBo wrote: »

Well banks have been lending money for ever, if they stop lending money, how do they make money themselves?

Why wouldnt a bank extend a business loan for a business that is effectively replacing an existing business that only closed due to cash flow issues?

The banks are obliged to keep high levels of reserves. The Irish banks have been on life support up to now. The had to sell large numbers o mortgages to vulture funds at a loss and keep trackers going at a loss. They will be having to deal with fallout from broken restructuring schemes and a whole new set of criticised loans.
Money lent is only profitable when it comes back with interest. banks have been making most of their money through syndications and leasing out money for cars and from credit and debit cards as well as account maintenance fees. The banks are likely to pull out of residential mortgages altogether after his.

Hubertj

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Out pointing and sputtering at people who have observed price reductions within the market again i see. You obviously have vested interest in property as anyone who mentions a drop you quickly smear them.

What is it about a impending global economic depression leading to a drop in property prices that you don't understand?

The point that is being made is that you and others are lying and not just giving opinions. There is a difference.

IndieRoar111

awec wrote: »

Just calling out the nonsense. Some good posters on here offering both sides of the coin, unfortunately some like yourself who are just making things up.

A few weeks ago it was your brother in law getting the bargain, then it was a couple your husband knows, then your vendor was negotiating their own sale price downward, and you were buying, but then you weren't. It's really hard to keep up with your ever changing reality.

You were buying a house worth 395k apparently too, but just a week earlier it was worth 345k. Then you were renting at 1500 a month, but that suddenly became 1300 a month a few days later. Your deposit was 175k at one point, then 160k, it's like nothing at all is real...

You sold in 2018 apparently. But 9 months ago you were telling us you were trying to sell a house. You were living with family after you sold in 2018, but then telling us how you would move in with family instead of renting to save money.

WOW

At what point did i mention any of these people pertain to the same property?

Literally have no idea where you are pulling this and these figures from? I see you have finally lost the plot

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

Less busy means less busy as beauf said it’s relative not absolute . There was far less movement which has been proven by the numbers and my recollection of the stock is that it was generally poor but there were bargains to be had especially if you were focusing on location and prepared to do big renovations

Less busy means less people buying, but the stock won't change over night, there will be the same or almost the same houses out there for sale next month and the one after. Second hand houses can be in good conditions or can be wrecks, this has always been the case

beauf

voluntary wrote: »

Companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter, etc whose revenue comes mainly from advertisements by other businesses are already hugely affected.

What happened was advertisers pulled advertising at the start of the crisis, not entirely sure what they were thinking. Considering media consumption has gone through the roof. Others have done the opposite. Increased it.

https://adage.com/article/digital/7-brands-have-increased-social-media-spend-during-coronavirus-pandemic/2246106

IndieRoar111

Hubertj wrote: »

The point that is being made is that you and others are lying and not just giving opinions. There is a difference.

Make note of current asking prices in the area of your interest and leverage the PPR in 3-6 months time and you will see the facts for yourself.

fliball123

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The banks are obliged to keep high levels of reserves. The Irish banks have been on life support up to now. The had to sell large numbers o mortgages to vulture funds at a loss and keep trackers going at a loss. They will be having to deal with fallout from broken restructuring schemes and a whole new set of criticised loans.
Money lent is only profitable when it comes back with interest. banks have been making most of their money through syndications and leasing out money for cars and from credit and debit cards as well as account maintenance fees. The banks are likely to pull out of residential mortgages altogether after his.

Wow really the banks had to keep a high level of reserves not obliged they had to. this was part of the bale out that in the future they could not be in the same spot again.

So you reckon that they will make no money from the 6billion just given to the irish government for the explicit reason of loaning to businesses to keep them afloat?

The banks got the loans at 1/4% and are lending it at 4.5%. If banks pull out of mortgage lending here the irish government will invite other euro banks in to fill the gap. I cant see any bank here stopping mortgages thats kind of laughable

awec

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

WOW

At what point did i mention any of these people pertain to the same property?

Literally have no idea where you are pulling this and these figures from? I see you have finally lost the plot

Your posts

Just tell the truth, there’s no need to make things up.

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Less busy means less people buying, but the stock won't change over night, there will be the same or almost the same houses out there for sale next month and the one after. Second hand houses can be in good conditions or can be wrecks, this has always been the case

Sorry the stock has been coming down day on day on myhome and daft for the last few weeks

IndieRoar111

awec wrote: »

All you’ve posted so far are unverifiable anecotes, combined with some misinformation, and you’re trying to portray them as facts.

Please don’t be offended if people don’t believe you. We’ve already had people on this thread literally invent stories of bargains and calls from EAs. There’s a lot of fantasy on here right now.

More smear tactics. Can't believe this poster hasn't been banned, all he is does i ignore evidence and derails the discussion.

IndieRoar111

awec wrote: »

Your posts

Just tell the truth, there’s no need to make things up.

Do post them then, my post history is public. Let's see who is making things up

Claw Hammer

fliball123 wrote: »

Wow really the banks had to keep a high level of reserves not obliged they had to. this was part of the bale out that in the future they could not be in the same spot again.

So you reckon that they will make no money from the 6billion just given to the irish government for the explicit reason of loaning to businesses to keep them afloat?

The banks got the loans at 1/4% and are lending it at 4.5%. If banks pull out of mortgage lending here the irish government will invite other euro banks in to fill the gap. I cant see any bank here stopping mortgages thats kind of laughable

The banks only got into retail mortgages in the late 1980s. They are getting out of retail banking generally. with defauts and being forced to keep on trackers they are not making much on mortgages. they will only lend to large business rather than small. Foreign banks have no interest in coming in here. Those that were here got up and left long ago.

pearcider

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Very true. I think America is the elephant in the room, with the number of deaths from Coronavirus soaring over there. They are now in number one position for infections and will be for their death rate, as a result of the virus. If you look up the C.N.N. website, food banks are in serious trouble, with so many jobless turning up looking for food. One drive through food bank had to start giving out flyers for other food banks, when they themselves ran out of food. In the unlikely event that we keep all our American companies, it’s very unlikely that they won’t make big numbers redundant.

The old adage was when America sneezes the world catches a cold. So what happens when America is in ICU? I saw in the FT that the federal reserve has been expanding their balance sheet by 1 millions dollars per second since the crisis began. Imagine that. We are literally on the road to ruin. But it was always going to end this way. The world is drowned in debt and the Irish property market has certainly played its part in that.

beauf

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Less busy means less people buying, but the stock won't change over night, there will be the same or almost the same houses out there for sale next month and the one after. Second hand houses can be in good conditions or can be wrecks, this has always been the case

From the way people talked about here I thought maybe there were almost no transaction's after the last crash. But when you look at the figures thats not true. They reduced or sure, but nothing like what I was expecting from the comments here. Its always good to do some research before taking what is posted here at face value. Same with any of the media. Most people remember the media reporting, but its usually very click bait with stats and they distort them to make dramatic headlines.

Mic 1972

The Sales Daft report for Q1 is out, some interesting points. Dublin was already dropping 2.6% year on year regardless of Covid

Combined with falls in both Q3 and Q4, it means that year-on-year, prices are now 1.7% lower than at the end of Q1 2019. In Dublin, the annual decline is slightly larger, at 2.6%,

Also there is aninteresting analysis of before and after Covid for asking prices in March, with a 2.1% drop

a change within the month of March, with average listed prices 2.1% lower in the second half of the month than in the first

fliball123

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The banks only got into retail mortgages in the late 1980s. They are getting out of retail banking generally. with defauts and being forced to keep on trackers they are not making much on mortgages. they will only lend to large business rather than small. Foreign banks have no interest in coming in here. Those that were here got up and left long ago.

Was there trackers for retail mortgages?? I wasnt aware of that I thought it was only residential who got the trackers?

Also they have been told they must lend the 6 billion just received for all businesses to keep them going.

Providing the right environment any bank or company can be swayed to come here you only have to look at google, FB, twitter, pfizer, Abbot, etc etc etc etc

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The Sales Daft report for Q1 is out, some interesting points. Dublin was already dropping 2.6% year on year regardless of Covid

Combined with falls in both Q3 and Q4, it means that year-on-year, prices are now 1.7% lower than at the end of Q1 2019. In Dublin, the annual decline is slightly larger, at 2.6%,

Also there is aninteresting analysis of before and after Covid for asking prices in March, with a 2.1% drop

a change within the month of March, with average listed prices 2.1% lower in the second half of the month than in the first

Wow some figures not the 15% that has been touted about by some on here

Claw Hammer

fliball123 wrote: »

Was there trackers for retail mortgages?? I wasnt aware of that I thought it was only residential who got the trackers?

Also they have been told they must lend the 6 billion just received for all businesses to keep them going.

Providing the right environment any bank or company can be swayed to come here you only have to look at google, FB, twitter, pfizer, Abbot, etc etc etc etc

I was using retail in the sense of personal banking. The backs have been walking away from it in the last 12 years, back to where they were in the 1950s.

awec

fliball123 wrote: »

Was there trackers for retail mortgages?? I wasnt aware of that I thought it was only residential who got the trackers?

Also they have been told they must lend the 6 billion just received for all businesses to keep them going.

Providing the right environment any bank or company can be swayed to come here you only have to look at google, FB, twitter, pfizer, Abbot, etc etc etc etc

Retail banking is banking for the general public, not the retail sector

JJJackal

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Make note of current asking prices in the area of your interest and leverage the PPR in 3-6 months time and you will see the facts for yourself.

Look at the sale price on PPR 3 to 6 months ago and compare to the PPR in December next year

Asking price drops mean nothing.

fliball123

awec wrote: »

Retail banking is banking for the general public, not the retail sector

sorry I thought you were trying to say Commercial

fliball123

Claw Hammer wrote: »

I was using retail in the sense of personal banking. The backs have been walking away from it in the last 12 years, back to where they were in the 1950s.

Have you anything to back that up?

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

All I will say is any market like property is mainly driven by basic economic principle of supply and demand and unlike the last crash we had an over supply. There are also a number of things happening that is hitting both demand and supply and the property market is now no longer considered normal.

In the last crash we had Nama which removed the oversupply of unsold developments.
Banks were paralysed with respect to repossessions
Saying there was an oversupply during the last crash is an error,

fliball123 wrote:

Personally if I was buying I would be holding on for another few weeks/months and seeing how it goes and if I was selling I would pull my property off the market and wait till corona has blown over and see what way the market is.

Pretty much agree, there will be no market for some time. It will be damage assessment when it resumes

I would imagine that restrictions of some kind will remain until a cure for for C19 is found

Leadership in some of our most powerful trading partners ha been poor and may prolong the problem

beauf

pearcider wrote: »

The old adage was when America sneezes the world catches a cold. So what happens when America is in ICU? I saw in the FT that the federal reserve has been expanding their balance sheet by 1 millions dollars per second since the crisis began. Imagine that. We are literally on the road to ruin. But it was always going to end this way. The world is drowned in debt and the Irish property market has certainly played its part in that.

The US seems to have been on financial life support for decades, same crisis after every war, every recession. I'm amazed they haven't collapsed decades ago. But they seem to keep going.

pearcider

beauf wrote: »

The US seems to have been on financial life support for decades, same crisis after every war, every recession. I'm amazed they haven't collapsed decades ago. But they seem to keep going.

Well we know a country can run a 200% debt to gdp ratio as Japan has done it. But can it do 300%? 400? We’re about to find out where the invisible confidence line is.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

In the last crash we had Nama which removed the oversupply of unsold developments.
Banks were paralysed with respect to repossessions
Saying there was an oversupply during the last crash is an error,





Pretty much agree, there will be no market for some time. It will be damage assessment when it resumes

I would imagine that restrictions of some kind will remain until a cure for for C19 is found

Leadership in some of our most powerful trading partners ha been poor and may prolong the problem

Sorry there was an over supply for god sake you only have to look back at the reports of ghost estates throughout the country. The very fact that Nama had to be created is actually proof of an oversupply that houses that people did not want or need or where in difficulty paying for them were put into this vehicle. So there was an oversupply of houses built priior to 2008. The same cannot be said now. I cant see Nama 2 coming out anytime soon.

Banks are still paralysed with repossessions any bank looking to take a residential property has been and will be meet with a lot of resistance. There have been case studies that some people who got into difficulty in the last recession went 8 years + without paying the mortgage and still have the house today.

Marius34

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The Sales Daft report for Q1 is out, some interesting points. Dublin was already dropping 2.6% year on year regardless of Covid

I believe Daft report was generated at the end of March, where first ones started to reduce price due to Covid.
The actual prices on Pre-Covid, we will see in the next CSO report for the month of February transactions. And I expect it to be upward for annual basis.
As you can see from previous posts, even for previous sale agreed some buyers trying to negotiate over the past weeks, or pull out already, before signing contract, thus CSO report for April (in June) , will not show a pre-Covid market anymore. This will be the last CSO fully pre-covid. and at some extent CSO March report (in May).