Property Market 2020

Mic 1972

Marius34 wrote: »

I believe Daft report was generated at the end of March, where first ones started to reduce price due to Covid.
The actual prices on Pre-Covid, we will see in the next CSO report for the month of February transactions. And I expect it to be upward for annual basis.
As you can see from previous posts, even for previous sale agreed some people trying to negotiate, or pull out already, before signing contract, thus CSO report for April, will not show a pre-Covid market anymore. This will be the last CSO fully pre-covid. and at some extent CSO March report (in May).

The 2.6% drop is Year on Year, as a consequence of Q3 and Q4 consistent decline although prices started to pick up again in Q1 2020

Covid affected the second half of March with a 2.1% drop compared to the first half of the month. Even without Covid there was still going to be a YOY decline

Hulk Hands

JimmyVik wrote: »

You are correct. It is a forum. People duscuss. But heresay in a forum is not proof.


Sorry, dont mena to be ragging on you at all. Just saying that we cant cite what a random person on the internet says as proof of anything. And we shouldnt.

Heresay posts are by far the most interesting posts on the thread. We can all go look at the housing reports data in the newspapers in 3 months time. People are coming here to have a bit of speculation in a time of uncertainty. Everyone's an adult, they can make their own mind up whether to believe things or not. The butthurt from some everytime someone posts a story or anecdote is tiring

landofthetree

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0409/1129580-imf-on-coronavirus-impact/

Huge fall in prices coming. As bad as the great depression.

Marius34

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The 2.6% drop is Year on Year, as a consequence of Q3 and Q4 consistent decline although prices started to pick up again in Q1 2020

Covid affected the second half of March with a 2.1% drop compared to the first half of the month. Even without Covid there was still going to be a YOY decline

that's what I'm saying 2020 Q1 seems have started upward trend based on actual sales from CSO reports, before Covid impact, YOY basis. It's not really right to compare Q1 with Q4 or Q3.
That's why I'm saying, next CSO report will show that actual price change for YOY for February transactions.
Daft report may have already included second half on March, with Covid impacted properties.

IndieRoar111

JJJackal wrote: »

Look at the sale price on PPR 3 to 6 months ago and compare to the PPR in December next year

Asking price drops mean nothing.

The virus and subsequent economic crash only started last month and asking prices are just starting to drop which will cascade into lower sale prices.

So asking price drops in reality will lead to lower sales prices, can't believe i have to explain this to an adult.

JamesMason

pearcider wrote: »

Well we know a country can run a 200% debt to gdp ratio as Japan has done it. But can it do 300%? 400? We’re about to find out where the invisible confidence line is.

I for one agree with pearcider here. A lot of the discussion on this thread will become irrelevant in due course. We all felt the effects of the economic shock in 2008. What has happened to the global economy by this health scare is a global earthquake of atomic proportions. Nitpicking over 0.5% changes in Dublin real estate price is the last thing we should be worried about IMO. Leo said himself on March 17th...the bill will be enormous. Get ready!

combat14

Just seen this - Debenhams closing in Ireland
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0409/1129586-debenhams-pulling-out-of-ireland/

awec

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Heresay posts are by far the most interesting posts on the thread. We can all go look at the housing reports data in the newspapers in 3 months time. People are coming here to have a bit of speculation in a time of uncertainty. Everyone's an adult, they can make their own mind up whether to believe things or not. The butthurt from some everytime someone posts a story or anecdote is tiring

The "stories" are the problem, the fairy tales. It is tiresome having to constantly separate fact from fiction.

It would be exactly the same if we had people claiming they are developers and prices are going up like never before. Or claiming to be EAs and saying they've seen double digit growth the past 2 weeks. Or sellers saying the offers are rolling in and they can't keep up, phone is ringing off the hook.

These are anecdotes, but are clearly and obviously bollocks. This is unfortunately the standard we are seeing from a select few. There have been lots of anecdotes (of people getting discounts too) that have had no negative reaction from anyone, because they are entirely believable and grounded in reality.

IndieRoar111

awec wrote: »

The "stories" are the problem, the fairy tales. It is tiresome having to constantly separate fact from fiction.

It would be exactly the same if we had people claiming they are developers and prices are going up like never before. Or claiming to be EAs and saying they've seen double digit growth the past 2 weeks. Or sellers saying the offers are rolling in and they can't keep up, phone is ringing off the hook.

These are anecdotes, but are clearly and obviously bollocks. This is unfortunately the standard we are seeing from a select few. There have been lots of anecdotes (of people getting discounts too) that have had no negative reaction from anyone, because they are entirely believable and grounded in reality.

So says the most vested person in here on property prices remaining within the status quo.

I've noticed you have a lot of time to post now that work has slowed down for EAs.

awec

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

So says the most vested person in here on property prices remaining within the status quo.

I've noticed you have a lot of time to post now that work has slowed down for EAs.

:pac:

Nice try. I'm not an EA, I'm not a property investor, I'm not a developer, I am not a tradesman. I have no vested interest in the property game whatsoever. I don't work in the sector, I don't invest in the sector, I just have an interest in it (and I'm a homeowner, obviously).

JimmyVik

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Heresay posts are by far the most interesting posts on the thread. We can all go look at the housing reports data in the newspapers in 3 months time. People are coming here to have a bit of speculation in a time of uncertainty. Everyone's an adult, they can make their own mind up whether to believe things or not. The butthurt from some everytime someone posts a story or anecdote is tiring

I enjoy heresay posts as much as the next person and will post heresay myself.

My point was that heresay should not be taken as proof of anything. Thats all it was. And it shouldnt be striking the nerves it seems to be striking. Its so such an obvious thing.

Idbatterim

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0409/1129580-imf-on-coronavirus-impact/

population is increasing, prices will drop, how much? nobody knows. But nobody is kicked out of their homes here, regardless of whether unfortunate circumstances or they are taking the piss, this is before this insane virus hit. If building and supply is frozen. Who is going to sell at firesale prices? I think getting out now as a seller, with a few percent off makes sense... because if you do have to sell, better a few percent off now, than another few percent in a few months...

But i think those lusting after 30-40% drops, could be in for some dissapointment... honestly if prices drop substantially, the state could start buying it up for social housing (if prices dropped significantly) a kind of reverse nama, the state could benefit from the opportunity / crisis this time, rather than giving stuff away. Rents should be increased in them though (social housing)...

awec

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The 2.6% drop is Year on Year, as a consequence of Q3 and Q4 consistent decline although prices started to pick up again in Q1 2020

Covid affected the second half of March with a 2.1% drop compared to the first half of the month. Even without Covid there was still going to be a YOY decline

Yea, there was.

The impact of Covid on prices won't be seen in this quarter's report either I think. Q2 is likely to show a very small number of transactions, but with relatively small changes in values (single digit % I'd guess). The price drops won't be big because the completions at the start of the quarter are likely to be mostly for houses that went sale agreed pre-covid.

Q3 again likely to show significant drops in number of sales, but if we see huge price drops who knows.

Beyond that nobody has a notion.

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

........... honestly if prices drop substantially, the state could start buying it up for social housing (if prices dropped significantly( Rents should be increased in them though...

If prices drop substantially there won't be a huge volume of them changing hands. There won't be estates for sale, newbuilds etc.

The state will likely have other bills to pay, unfortunately.

Idbatterim

awec wrote: »

Yea, there was.

The impact of Covid on prices won't be seen in this quarter's report either I think. Q2 is likely to show a very small number of transactions, but with relatively small changes in values (single digit % I'd guess). The price drops won't be big because the completions at the start of the quarter are likely to be mostly for houses that went sale agreed pre-covid.

Q3 again likely to show significant drops in number of sales, but if we see huge price drops who knows.

Beyond that nobody has a notion.

how could you see a huge price drop? It can happen, but over a prolonger period of time. anything property related tends to be glacial... prices might go up quicker, but on the way down, they simply kill supply, within reason (the sellers) to stop that...

One other key point, the last time , the emigration taps could be openened, hundreds of thousands left the country, which had some pro's and con's. That isnt the case this time! If rents are dropping in dublin now, many may see it as an opportunity to get back here and ditch the bull**** commute, expense of a car potentially etc...

beauf

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Heresay posts are by far the most interesting posts on the thread. We can all go look at the housing reports data in the newspapers in 3 months time. People are coming here to have a bit of speculation in a time of uncertainty. Everyone's an adult, they can make their own mind up whether to believe things or not. The butthurt from some everytime someone posts a story or anecdote is tiring

It seems there should be two threads. Those that want to talk entertaining gossip and those that would like to actually talk about it more seriously. Pretty clear the latter is impossible and the former is encouraged. There are other forums that take it more seriously. Probably should unsub and go to those of that's what you're interested in.

Everyone has a vested interest. Some are hysterically one sided though. It's pretty funny. It's more like an after hours thread. I didnt think anyone takes this forum seriously anymore.

awec

Augeo wrote: »

If prices drop substantially there won't be a huge volume of them changing hands. There won't be estates for sale, newbuilds etc.

The state will likely have other bills to pay, unfortunately.

Housing is a major political issue in Ireland.

If another crash happens, it's going to get even worse. It will be at the very top of any future government agenda.

Idbatterim

Augeo wrote: »

If prices drop substantially there won't be a huge volume of them changing hands. There won't be estates for sale, newbuilds etc.

The state will likely have other bills to pay, unfortunately.

yeah, that is true! I am assuming that work on the existing stuff under construction, in good locations, can hopefully resume soon enough...

JimmyVik

Idbatterim wrote: »

If rents are dropping in dublin now, many may see it as an opportunity to get back here and ditch the bull**** commute, expense of a car potentially etc...

That is exactly what my brother just did.
He was lloking at moving further away just over a month ago.
Already he has got a better, nicer place that suits his job perfectly.
He was quick off the mark when he saw cheap places come up.

awec

Idbatterim wrote: »

how could you see a huge price drop? It can happen, but over a prolonger period of time. anything property related tends to be glacial... prices might go up quicker, but on the way down, they simply kill supply, within reason (the sellers) to stop that...

One other key point, the last time , the emigration taps could be openened, hundreds of thousands left the country, which had some pro's and con's. That isnt the case this time! If rents are dropping in dublin now, many may see it as an opportunity to get back here and ditch the bull**** commute, expense of a car potentially etc...

I don't see huge drops happening. Prices will definitely come down, but not to the extent that some on here are suggesting.

The way we build houses in Ireland now is like just-in-time manufacturing. We build the houses when people buy them. If that stops, we stop building them. There will not be a scenario where developers pump out housing developments, driving up supply beyond demand which drives prices down rapidly.

As always, if there's a huge price drop it'll be because demand falls through the floor.

awec

awec wrote: »

Housing is a major political issue in Ireland.

If another crash happens, it's going to get even worse. It will be at the very top of any future government agenda.

If another crash happens I don't think we'll see high rents and a shortage of places for folk to dwell. Housing can be at the top of any future government agenda but that doesn't mean they'll buy dribs and drabs of houses here and there in a market where there's not volume.

awec

awec wrote: »

Housing is a major political issue in Ireland.

If another crash happens, it's going to get even worse. It will be at the very top of any future government agenda.

awec wrote: »

I don't see huge drops happening. Prices will definitely come down, but not to the extent that some on here are suggesting.

The way we build houses in Ireland now is like just-in-time manufacturing. We build the houses when people buy them. If that stops, we stop building them. There will not be a scenario where developers pump out housing developments, driving up supply beyond demand which drives prices down rapidly.

As always, if there's a huge price drop it'll be because demand falls through the floor.

Sort of on both sides of multiple fences there........

PokeHerKing

Jesus this thread is moving almost as fast as the main Covid thread.

House prices are definitely going down, by how much who knows, personally I'd be surprised at anything less than 10% drop across the board by this time next year but it's a guessing game really.

One thing I will say, the more "economists" that come on board with the 'sky is falling' predictions the more I feel it won't be as bad as they think because they're rarely fcuking right!

awec

Augeo wrote: »

Sort of on both sides of multiple fences there........

Not really, it's not a game like, I'm not going to say "this is exactly what's going to happen".

I don't think we'll seehuge drops (but we will absolutely see drops), due to supply issues. But price drops are going to be demand driven as there is no over-supply, so if demand drops a little bit, prices will drop a little bit. If prices drop a lot, it's because demand has dropped a lot.

Given that Ireland is currently under-supplied, the extent to which demand would have to drop to cause huge price drops would have to be huge also. That means in this scenario the majority of those who think they'll be picking up a bargain are going to be disappointed. Some people will get a bargain (generally the cash-rich and investors) because most people will not be able to buy.

Idbatterim

the rents may drop now. But if how many tens of thousands might have given up accomodation here to go back down the country, to live with parents etc. if colleges and english schools are operating in september again, you are talking about a hundreds of thousands of students. Tourism wont be back any time relatively soon. Early to mid summer, could be a great time to rent. IF things are normal ish by September, when the absolute comedy with supply really becomes apparent...

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

If prices drop substantially there won't be a huge volume of them changing hands. There won't be estates for sale, newbuilds etc.

The state will likely have other bills to pay, unfortunately.

awec wrote: »

Housing is a major political issue in Ireland.

If another crash happens, it's going to get even worse. It will be at the very top of any future government agenda.

awec wrote: »

Not really, it's not a game like, I'm not going to say "this is exactly what's going to happen".

I don't think we'll seehuge drops (but we will absolutely see drops), due to supply issues. But price drops are going to be demand driven as there is no over-supply, so if demand drops a little bit, prices will drop a little bit. If prices drop a lot, it's because demand has dropped a lot.

Given that Ireland is currently under-supplied, the extent to which demand would have to drop to cause huge price drops would have to be huge also. That means in this scenario the majority of those who think they'll be picking up a bargain are going to be disappointed. Some people will get a bargain (generally the cash-rich and investors) because most people will not be able to buy.

Yeah, I did say "If prices drop substantially there won't be a huge volume of them changing hands" .........

awec

Augeo wrote: »

Yeah, I did say "If prices drop substantially there won't be a huge volume of them changing hands" .........

I wasn't disagreeing!

Marius34

I haven't seen anyone posting myhome/davy report for 2020 Q1 on Asking Price.

https://www.myhome.ie/reports/2020/Q1

Main Findings
Housing market showed signs of growth before Covid-19 outbreak
Quarterly asking price inflation rose throughout the country
Annual asking price inflation grew by 0.7% nationally and was flat in Dublin
Prices outside Dublin up by 0.9% over year

Hubertj

the homeless guy outside Tesco on Baggot St just told me he bought a 1 bed apartment on Pembroke Road for €15. He said he got them down from €415k. Someone else told me that they have been paid to take ownership of an apartment.

Anecdotal but proves the market has crashed 195%

cd76

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

This.

Listen to this poster guys and think critically about those posting who are in complete denial about this global economic depression causing the property market to tank. These people are either Estate agents and/or sellers who are taking to this place as a last resort as they clearly have vested interests in keeping prices artificially inflated.

You will notice they will shame anyone who posts about price reductions currently in the market and anyone who predicts a significant drop and ironically claiming these people have a vested interest lol, well guess what there is no need for prospective buyers to lie about price reductions, the market is about to fall off a cliff and it doesn't take supposed "liars" on boards to convince the general public that the writing is on the wall.

Perfect, seems we're outnumbered by all the Estate Agents on here !