Property Market 2020

MrMusician18

Of course supply will constrain in a falling market, why would you sell in a falling market, unless you absolutely had to - and then you'd want it done quickly.

There is an idea that supply will absolutely shut down. That won't happen, there are always sales that need to be made, executors for example.

I think the real unknown here is what the broader policy to restart the economy will be. Falls could be substantially tempered by a massive European stimulus for example.

The idea though that everyone will be able to nab a bargain though is a bit off. If supply is dampened, demand has to be dampened even further. While an exodus of foreign workers, students and tourists will take the heat out of property, the real killer will be unaffordability for most seeking to enter the market. They will find themselves denied credit, with only the most secure - say couples in the public sector, and/or those with giant deposits that will get access to credit. They will be competing with the cash buyers for the scraps...

The rest of us will be onlookers...

GreeBo

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The banks are obliged to keep high levels of reserves. The Irish banks have been on life support up to now. The had to sell large numbers o mortgages to vulture funds at a loss and keep trackers going at a loss. They will be having to deal with fallout from broken restructuring schemes and a whole new set of criticised loans.
Money lent is only profitable when it comes back with interest. banks have been making most of their money through syndications and leasing out money for cars and from credit and debit cards as well as account maintenance fees. The banks are likely to pull out of residential mortgages altogether after his.

I'm sorry, you think banks are going to pull out of residential mortgages??

What are you being this idea on?

Maitguel

fifth wrote: »

Spoke to two different EA's this week to find out if there were any new builds after coming back to market because buyers had pulled out (no harm in asking.)

EA 1 - he said yes 4 properties from one particular development had become available because buyers were uncertain about their financial future and wanted to hold off to buy during the next phase before completing purchase. Previously they had told me nothing will be available until almost 2022. They have also added 30-40k to the prices since the last time I checked the brochure early this year, so my good fortune was short lived.

EA 2 - business is booming, not one person has called to pull out of a sale she said. Asked about one particular new development and was told no room to negotiate on prices, plenty of buyers available. Economy will be back to normal in a month or so.

I am looking to buy a new build and I am looking for one at a discount if I can get one, but nothing materialising as of yet. I will likely end up paying current prices if nothing changes in a few months.

Ya the views are still very mixed. I think if you are willing to walk away from a property you will be able to get some reduction, but developers are smarter this time round and won’t be panicking to sell just to please their lenders. Possible too soon to be looking for any big discounts given how uncertain the whole thing still is.

Those who have walked away from houses where they have gotten massive drops in prices should post links to help those who are still interested in buying to find value.

beauf

cd76 wrote: »

Perfect, seems we're outnumbered by all the Estate Agents on here !

No reason estate agents wouldn't be looking to buy low sell high. Or anyone. Quite a few doom merchants have already declared as investors looking to buy in once the market falls, and actively posted looking to buy, yet declaring there is no demand. Can't be both. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

GreeBo

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Less busy means less people buying, but the stock won't change over night, there will be the same or almost the same houses out there for sale next month and the one after. Second hand houses can be in good conditions or can be wrecks, this has always been the case

Other than whatever the peak is, every other data point will be less... You do get that right?

MrMusician18

beauf wrote: »

No reason estate agents wouldn't be looking to buy low sell high. Or anyone. Quite a few doom merchants have already declared as investors looking to buy in once the market falls, and actively posted looking to buy, yet declaring there is no demand. Can't be both. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Estate agents fees are usually a percentage of the achieved price, so it of course important to them for the market to be rising and active.

Working as an EA can be lucrative at times, but not that many make it into property investing

Marius34

cd76 wrote: »

Perfect, seems we're outnumbered by all the Estate Agents on here !

Stop accusing everyone as an Estate Agents, if they don't go along with you.
You called this out like 10 times, purely just from your imagination.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Every post I see saying 30-50% drop is by the same poster...it's almost like they are push an agenda.

Claw Hammer

GreeBo wrote: »

I'm sorry, you think banks are going to pull out of residential mortgages??

What are you being this idea on?

It is a relatively recent thing for the banks to be involved in. they traditionally left it to the Building Societies. Up to the late 80's the banks only gave residential mortgages to existing business customers. They only wanted the car loans and deposits from the retail side. The banks have been going back to their roots for quite a long time, being only interested in business lending only. Unless you are getting a PCP for a BMW or turning over a large annual sum the banks are not interested.

mcbert

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Every post I see saying 30-50% drop is by the same poster...it's almost like they are push an agenda.

They are - they want a cheap house

pearcider

cd76 wrote: »

Perfect, seems we're outnumbered by all the Estate Agents on here !

Only a matter of time before people ask for the thread to be closed. Same carry on in 2006 when the market turned.

PommieBast

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Intel, who’s going to be buying swanky new laptops if they can’t afford food or rent?

Intel's big money comes from server chips rather than desktops/laptops.

combat14 wrote: »

Just seen this - Debenhams closing in Ireland
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0409/1129586-debenhams-pulling-out-of-ireland/

Lot of the corporate world is over-leveraged in the same way the banks were back in 2008. Debenhams will not be the last.

what_traffic

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0409/1129580-imf-on-coronavirus-impact/

Huge fall in prices coming. As bad as the great depression.

This is just an amazing stat
"
The IMF chief warned that "global growth will turn sharply negative in 2020," with 170 of the International Monetary Fund's 180 members experiencing a decline in per capita income.
"

Nika Bolokov

If we do have a 30% fail in prices , that would signify that unemployment will likely remain above 12% anyway.

So banks will again have massive damage to their balance sheets , state finances will wobble again leading to public sector pay cuts but this time there is nowhere to emigrate too as it's a worldwide slump so no safety valve.

If you really believe that prices will fall 30% , in this environment you should probably be deeply concerned about your job not looking out with glee at the cheap housing your snap up.

egbh

Signed a 5 year lease today for a 2 bed//2 bath apartment in Ranelagh.

€1,550 p/m

Owner keen to ensure his mortgage payments are met for the end of his term, before he moves in himself upon retirement in 2025.

He said Estate agents are surprisingly optimistic and not acting in the best interests of their clients by holding out for what were already outlandish rents and are now laughable.Was getting almost 3k before Christmas and has been sitting idle since then until he gave his EA the boot.

We paid 2 months deposit and a month rent upfront. Happy to do so as place is in great condition and understand he wants to ensure it remains so (got the impression he was recently divorced and didn't want to add any further stress to his life).

He works in property management (wasn't too specific) and sees no foreign students coming back to Dublin this September which will in itself add a couple of thousand expensive properties, when combined with the AirBnB grenade, is not going to be an good time for rents. He said his company already had too many high end appartments sitting empty and it's not sustainable in the long term.

Obviously I will regret this if rents do fall further, although herself is keen to hopefully purchase in a year or two, so its a win win either way.

Nika Bolokov

egbh wrote: »

Signed a 5 year lease today for a 2 bed//2 bath apartment in Ranelagh.

€1,550 p/m

Owner keen to ensure his mortgage payments are met for the end of his term, before he moves in himself upon retirement in 2025.

He said Estate agents are surprisingly optimistic and not acting in the best interests of their clients by holding out for what were already outlandish rents and are now laughable.Was getting almost 3k before Christmas and has been sitting idle since then until he gave his EA the boot.

We paid 2 months deposit and a month rent upfront. Happy to do so as place is in great condition and understand he wants to ensure it remains so (got the impression he was recently divorced and didn't want to add any further stress to his life).

He works in property management (wasn't too specific) and sees no foreign students coming back to Dublin this September which will in itself add a couple of thousand expensive properties, when combined with the AirBnB grenade, is not going to be an good time for rents. He said his company already had too many high end appartments sitting empty and it's not sustainable in the long term.

Obviously I will regret this if rents do fall further, although herself is keen to hopefully purchase in a year or two, so its a win win either way.

View it online ?

AlmightyCushion

egbh wrote: »

Signed a 5 year lease today for a 2 bed//2 bath apartment in Ranelagh.

€1,550 p/m

Owner keen to ensure his mortgage payments are met for the end of his term, before he moves in himself upon retirement in 2025.

He said Estate agents are surprisingly optimistic and not acting in the best interests of their clients by holding out for what were already outlandish rents and are now laughable.Was getting almost 3k before Christmas and has been sitting idle since then until he gave his EA the boot.

We paid 2 months deposit and a month rent upfront. Happy to do so as place is in great condition and understand he wants to ensure it remains so (got the impression he was recently divorced and didn't want to add any further stress to his life).

He works in property management (wasn't too specific) and sees no foreign students coming back to Dublin this September which will in itself add a couple of thousand expensive properties, when combined with the AirBnB grenade, is not going to be an good time for rents. He said his company already had too many high end appartments sitting empty and it's not sustainable in the long term.

Obviously I will regret this if rents do fall further, although herself is keen to hopefully purchase in a year or two, so its a win win either way.

So, you signed a 5 year lease despite hoping to buy in a year or 2. Sure. Also, love that the landlord was telling a prospective tenant just how badly they thought the rental market is going to get hit.

beauf

what_traffic wrote: »

This is just an amazing stat
"
The IMF chief warned that "global growth will turn sharply negative in 2020," with 170 of the International Monetary Fund's 180 members experiencing a decline in per capita income.
"

Can you share some previous stats to put that into context. Has this never happened before in previous crashes?

what_traffic

beauf wrote: »

Can you share some previous stats to put that into context. Has this never happened before in previous crashes?

Not in the lifetime of the IMF has this ever remotely occurred. Thats context for ya.

landofthetree

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

If we do have a 30% fail in prices , that would signify that unemployment will likely remain above 12% anyway.

So banks will again have massive damage to their balance sheets , state finances will wobble again leading to public sector pay cuts but this time there is nowhere to emigrate too as it's a worldwide slump so no safety valve.

If you really believe that prices will fall 30% , in this environment you should probably be deeply concerned about your job not looking out with glee at the cheap housing your snap up.

Loads of people got property on the cheap post 2008.

beauf

what_traffic wrote: »

Not in the lifetime of the IMF has this ever remotely occurred. Thats context for ya.

Founded in 1945 you'd have thought post ww2 would be worse. Since infrastructure and economies were liberally obliterated.

beauf

landofthetree wrote: »

Loads of people got property on the cheap post 2008.

Might be cheap, will it be affordable though.

egbh

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

View it online ?

No in person, no point in viewing anything online.

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

So, you signed a 5 year lease despite hoping to buy in a year or 2. Sure. Also, love that the landlord was telling a prospective tenant just how badly they thought the rental market is going to get hit.

Herself is going to buy, I'm preparing for a PhD starting september so not in a position to afford anything I'd like to buy at the moment.

Yeah like most landlords in the real world he is a realist and was explaining why he preferred a 5 year lease. I doubt he spends too much time online trying to convnce himself that a worldwide recession isn't going to affect the Dublin rental market.

SozBbz

what_traffic wrote: »

Not in the lifetime of the IMF has this ever remotely occurred. Thats context for ya.

Not in the lifetime of the IMF has a global pandemic remotely occurred. Thats context for ya.

fergus1001

mcbert wrote:

They are - they want a cheap house

*reasonably priced house*

Mic 1972

Marius34 wrote: »

that's what I'm saying 2020 Q1 seems have started upward trend based on actual sales from CSO reports, before Covid impact, YOY basis. It's not really right to compare Q1 with Q4 or Q3.
That's why I'm saying, next CSO report will show that actual price change for YOY for February transactions.
Daft report may have already included second half on March, with Covid impacted properties.

The Daft report does include full March data pre and post Covid but the YOY drop of 2.6% was developed over a 12 rolling months, Covid only impacted the last 2 weeks of the report. Also March started with an increase over February. If you exclude March altogether you still get a YOY drop

what_traffic

beauf wrote: »

Founded in 1945 you'd have thought post ww2 would be worse. Since infrastructure and economies were liberally obliterated.

There is no context. Thats the point.
WW2 was "boom" time for many country's economys especially the America's

Hubertj

egbh wrote: »

Signed a 5 year lease today for a 2 bed//2 bath apartment in Ranelagh.

€1,550 p/m

Owner keen to ensure his mortgage payments are met for the end of his term, before he moves in himself upon retirement in 2025.

He said Estate agents are surprisingly optimistic and not acting in the best interests of their clients by holding out for what were already outlandish rents and are now laughable.Was getting almost 3k before Christmas and has been sitting idle since then until he gave his EA the boot.

We paid 2 months deposit and a month rent upfront. Happy to do so as place is in great condition and understand he wants to ensure it remains so (got the impression he was recently divorced and didn't want to add any further stress to his life).

He works in property management (wasn't too specific) and sees no foreign students coming back to Dublin this September which will in itself add a couple of thousand expensive properties, when combined with the AirBnB grenade, is not going to be an good time for rents. He said his company already had too many high end appartments sitting empty and it's not sustainable in the long term.

Obviously I will regret this if rents do fall further, although herself is keen to hopefully purchase in a year or two, so its a win win either way.

so you joined boards to share this news? hmmmm

Marius34

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The Daft report does include full March data pre and post Covid but the YOY drop of 2.6% was developed over a 12 rolling months, Covid only impacted the last 2 weeks of the report. Also March started with an increase over February. If you exclude March altogether you still get a YOU drop

1) Investors start to get nervous over Covid on second half of February, that's when the stock market started to fall.
2) I'm curious where did you find this "Also March started with an increase over February."

beauf

what_traffic wrote: »

There is no context. Thats the point.
WW2 was "boom" time for many country's economys especially the America's

With that in mind who are the 10.

what_traffic wrote: »

This is just an amazing stat
"
The IMF chief warned that "global growth will turn sharply negative in 2020," with 170 of the International Monetary Fund's 180 members experiencing a decline in per capita income.
"