Property Market 2020

Idbatterim

WOW and I mean WOW to that house in Churchtown, I live here absolutely great location, but jesus that is insanity!!!

look at the below in comparison, closer to luas and a few minute walk from dundrum village! detached!!

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/78a-weston-road-churchtown-dublin-14/4377142

So I just went onto myhome to see what was going on, there are two houses up there, thay my mate offered good money on , months ago! You know what , deligted for them, with this bloody greed, no doubt they'd take the hand off him for those offers now!

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

and does that mean prices were leveling off due to supply increasing to meet demand so buyers have more choice? Or does that mean it was down to affordability? Or a mixture of both?

Mixture of both I suspect

Hubertj wrote:

How many exceptions are there per year?

20% of ftb mortgages
10% of trader/uppers

Marius34 wrote:

And why this makes Daft report more correct over Myhome? Myhome didn't report fall on YoY basis. YoY already tells if price increased over year or decreased over a year. The same central rules applies for 2019 Q1 & 2020 Q1. As mentioned Daft 2019 Q1 4% increase in Dublin, didn't result in actual transaction price increase even with added delay.

I see both reports as a guide. I believe Roman Lyons of daft is a more independent voice on the property market and their analysis during the last crash I found very useful, on the my home side I find they are more a mouth piece for the professions involved and daft would have a greater market share in my area

Both reports are a reflection of market seller sentiment which is useful but not always right

A 4% rise in q1 19 may reflect estate agent expectations that added mortgage exemptions may increase price. Affordability issues may have hampered that expectation

Idbatterim

TheSheriff wrote: »

This came into the emails last night through an alert.

Are they MAD! Even without Covid-19, people would be mad to pay this.

It essentially a granny flat rebranded as a house.

Obviously a developer, as the other half of the property is also for sale for 100K more, to be honest, it would likely been nicer as one large property with a higher price tag.

It will be interesting to see what this sells for and it investment made to split this property into two was worth it.

I think it actually a good way of adding more units to address supply. I mean jesus its a no brainer, for developer, if you could get even 400k for the other dwelling... What would you actually be prepared to pay for it though? €325k? if even...

Phillip D

Idbatterim wrote: »

WOW and I mean WOW to that house in Churchtown, I live here absolutely great location, but jesus that is insanity!!!

look at the below in comparison, closer to luas and a few minute walk from dundrum village! detached!!

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/78a-weston-road-churchtown-dublin-14/4377142

So I just went onto myhome to see what was going on, there are two houses up there, thay my mate offered good money on , months ago! You know what , deligted for them, with this bloody greed, no doubt they'd take the hand off him for those offers now!

Wow is that half a house haha. If anyone has any brains they wouldn't buy that . Can build a 5 bed 3 bathroom house in kildare for half that price.
Glad I dont live in Dublin anymore .

pearcider

beauf wrote: »

Buyers on this thread frothing at the bit to buy at the bottom of the market should wait for those 40%+ drops that your waiting for.

There are plenty of properties sitting unsold for the last few years empty. If they didn't need the money then, they are likely to leave it unsold for another few years.

Ignore those and concentrate on the ones that are dropping into your price point.

If you want to watch all the properties dropping and those that don't for years and sit on the sidelines and watch. There is website perfect for this. The property pin. It's been moaning about property for a decade or more.

I was just waiting for you to say “I don’t know how those people on the sidelines don’t kill themselves”.

And people think there’s no bubble. This thread is going to be painful to watch over the next year.

alan_mur

Interesting one here.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/smithfield/apartment-21-block-a-smithfield-dublin-2470124/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/smithfield/smithfield-market-smithfield-dublin-2020037/

3 bed apartment in Smithfield advertised for rent on 6/4 at €3,250. Then today rent dropped to €2,750 and also advertised for sale at €475,000.

At €3,250 it would give an 8% yield which was about right in the market pre-covid. Now an 8% yield on €2,750 is €412,500. Another rental in the same block has been up for a month at €2,700

The apartment was bought 7 months ago for €417,000.

Zenify

alan_mur wrote: »

Interesting one here.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/smithfield/apartment-21-block-a-smithfield-dublin-2470124/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/smithfield/smithfield-market-smithfield-dublin-2020037/

3 bed apartment in Smithfield advertised for rent on 6/4 at €3,250. Then today rent dropped to €2,750 and also advertised for sale at €475,000.

At €3,250 it would give an 8% yield which was about right in the market pre-covid. Now an 8% yield on €2,750 is €412,500. Another rental in the same block has been up for a month at €2,700

The apartment was bought 7 months ago for €417,000.

Do you think it was an AirB&B?

Maybe the extra selling price is wishful thinking to get back all the money they probably put into doing it up too...?

Villa05

alan_mur wrote:

3 bed apartment in Smithfield advertised for rent on 6/4 at €3,250. Then today rent dropped to €2,750 and also advertised for sale at €475,000.

Is that pricing normal for smithfield pre_covid. Seems astronomical for an area with high crime rates

Does it come with a parking space or a stable

Sorry

awec

Am I missing something? They’re different apartments no?

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Is that pricing normal for smithfield pre_covid. Seems astronomical for an area with high crime rates

Does it come with a parking space or a stable

Sorry

Smithfield is becoming gentrified and a bit hip I think. Decent location relative to city centre.

I think the top end of the spectrum price wise but not insane (talking pre-covid here).

alan_mur

Zenify wrote: »

Do you think it was an AirB&B?

Maybe the extra selling price is wishful thinking to get back all the money they probably put into doing it up too...?

Don't think it was Air B&B. Someone has taken a large mortgage and now figures that they'll have to top it up so trying to get out with purchase price, purchase costs, refurish costs and selling costs.

In 6 months, sale price could be below €400k as the rental price drops.

OwlsZat

alan_mur wrote: »

Interesting one here.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/smithfield/apartment-21-block-a-smithfield-dublin-2470124/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/smithfield/smithfield-market-smithfield-dublin-2020037/

3 bed apartment in Smithfield advertised for rent on 6/4 at €3,250. Then today rent dropped to €2,750 and also advertised for sale at €475,000.

At €3,250 it would give an 8% yield which was about right in the market pre-covid. Now an 8% yield on €2,750 is €412,500. Another rental in the same block has been up for a month at €2,700

The apartment was bought 7 months ago for €417,000.

I lived in that development and it can be nice, apart from the lack of any insulation whatsoever. That particular apartment suffers from a lack of sunlight. I reckon pre covid price of 417k was pretty fair. If they got back their money at the same price they would do well to wash their hands of it. The rental market is going to soften and can't see too many families dashing to buy.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Is that pricing normal for smithfield pre_covid. Seems astronomical for an area with high crime rates

Does it come with a parking space or a stable

Sorry

this made me laugh..... lived in stoneybatter about 10 years ago and smithfield was like the wild west at times!

it is a convenient place to live but houses are all very small and many are 2 up 2 down.... i suppose apartments only option if you want to live there and have more space....

alwald

alan_mur wrote: »

Don't think it was Air B&B. Someone has taken a large mortgage and now figures that they'll have to top it up so trying to get out with purchase price, purchase costs, refurish costs and selling costs.

In 6 months, sale price could be below €400k as the rental price drops.

I know someone who bought a bigger and better apartment not far away from this location in 2011 for 240K. It's a top floor 3 bed with 2 living rooms/balconies.

I reckon that pre covid it was worth 500K and pre 08/09 650K.

Idbatterim

alwald wrote: »

I know someone who bought a bigger and better apartment not far away from this location in 2011 for 240K. It's a top floor 3 bed with 2 living rooms/balconies.

I reckon that pre covid it was worth 500K and pre 08/09 650K.

top floor apartment was a wise idea to say the least!

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

this made me laugh..... lived in stoneybatter about 10 years ago and smithfield was like the wild west at times!

it is a convenient place to live but houses are all very small and many are 2 up 2 down.... i suppose apartments only option if you want to live there and have more space....

I snorted reading the description 'the trendiest apartment you will find in this neighbourhood'. What a load of bollox. 475k is wishful thinking- and as for the rent falling EUR500 in asking in the last 2 weeks- its still too expensive (esp. for the area). Don't get me wrong- its very much gentrified in the last 15 years- moving the horse market was a massive boost for the civility of the area.

People will say what they want to say to try and sell or let a property. The current strange times though- have put the kibosh on anything moving- and dropping the asking 500- isn't going to cut it, if there aren't any customers, it doesn't matter what you charge, there aren't any customers.

Assetbacked

With lockdown measures extended until at least the
5th May and best case scenario only very soft lessening of restrictions after that point, we could be looking at half of Q2 with minimal to no transactions. There are still plenty of rentals advertised on Daft each day but I wonder where they are coming from given everyone is being forced to stay put for the time being. The quarterly reports from the different entities will be uninteresting to say the least!

The_Conductor

Assetbacked wrote: »

I wonder where they are coming from given everyone is being forced to stay put for the time being.

Aerlingus alone have repatriated over 800 Americans from Ireland to the US in the last 10 days (and are still flying flights to NY, Orlando, Boston, SF and LA- on a reduced schedule- and under unusual conditions such as no Business Class to NY and a two crew flight with minimal turn around in JFK for example).

There is strong demand from US citizens in Ireland back to the States- sufficient to support 11 Aerlingus flights a week (have a look at their website- you can book (providing you're allowed travel)). Aerlingus have more transatlantic capacity right now- than all other carriers combined at the moment.

TAP took 140 Portuguese from Dublin to LIS on Wednesday

Lots of foreigners are going home- they'd rather be stuck at home in their home countries- than here- regardless of how bad things are at home.

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

Aerlingus alone have repatriated over 800 Americans from Ireland to the US in the last 10 days (and are still flying flights to NY, Orlando, Boston, SF and LA- on a reduced schedule- and under unusual conditions such as no Business Class to NY and a two crew flight with minimal turn around in JFK for example).

There is strong demand from US citizens in Ireland back to the States- sufficient to support 11 Aerlingus flights a week (have a look at their website- you can book (providing you're allowed travel)). Aerlingus have more transatlantic capacity right now- than all other carriers combined at the moment.

TAP took 140 Portuguese from Dublin to LIS on Wednesday

Lots of foreigners are going home- they'd rather be stuck at home in their home countries- than here- regardless of how bad things are at home.

i work for a large US MNC and US ex pats were given option to head home week beginning March 9th. Nobody took it up then but have done over the last few weeks once the seriousness hit home. Most were concerned about being far away from parents and grandparents if something bad happened. I would do the same no matter how bad it was in my home country.

Zenify

Assetbacked wrote: »

There are still plenty of rentals advertised on Daft each day

I dont follow the rentals... are there more or less coming on then normal?

kevinc565

Cyrus wrote: »

There are parts of carrickmines that are effectively extensions of foxrock, estates of houses circa 2500 sq feet and ranging from 1m-2m I don't think Ashbourne has anything like that

Personally foxrock doesn't do anything for me anyway but I like the sea !

Foxrock is an overpriced aging dump though. No public transport. old aging houses, no shops or shopping centres. anyone who buys there is just doing it for past glories ( ie good name), and presumably immediately regrets it ( unless they work in the area)

Sheeps

kevinc565 wrote: »

Foxrock is an overpriced aging dump though. No public transport. old aging houses, no shops or shopping centres. anyone who buys there is just doing it for past glories ( ie good name), and presumably immediately regrets it ( unless they work in the area)

yeah, it really really is. the area has virtually no character.

Cyrus

kevinc565 wrote: »

Foxrock is an overpriced aging dump though. No public transport. old aging houses, no shops or shopping centres. anyone who buys there is just doing it for past glories ( ie good name), and presumably immediately regrets it ( unless they work in the area)

If I was spending 2-3m it wouldn’t be my choice I’d either go for Killiney / dalkey or Dublin 6. But a dump it isn’t and the 46a is the best bus service in the country and the luas isn’t far away. Has very few of its own amenities but cornelscourt is the best supermarket on the south side and Carrickmines and Dundrum are close

I’d prefer it to Ashbourne that’s for sure

8-10

Yeah I'd agree with everything except it being a dump. Overpriced and aging, sure, but if that's your idea of a dump I'd love to buy in your neighborhood!

It's a very safe place to live with easy routes into the city and a short drive from the coast (Dun Laoghaire/Killiney) which are also nice areas.

Foxrock is not a dump

Assetbacked

Zenify wrote: »

I dont follow the rentals... are there more or less coming on then normal?

Under €2.2k is generally what I'd consider affordable so I'd keep an eye on it to that level and there are plenty coming on each day. I can't say for certain if it is more than normal but at the same time it doesn't seem like it is less than normal.

Thinking about it again, maybe it is just renewals and reposting of ads as they don't seem to be disappearing from Daft as they would've done a few weeks ago.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

Under €2.2k is generally what I'd consider affordable so I'd keep an eye on it to that level and there are plenty coming on each day. I can't say for certain if it is more than normal but at the same time it doesn't seem like it is less than normal.

Thinking about it again, maybe it is just renewals and reposting of ads as they don't seem to be disappearing from Daft as they would've done a few weeks ago.

Could it also be the same number coming into market for usual reasons, then a few more ex Air bnbs but then nobody is able to view / rent for stock to come off market?

Assetbacked

Hubertj wrote: »

Could it also be the same number coming into market for usual reasons, then a few more ex Air bnbs but then nobody is able to view / rent for stock to come off market?

It could be the same number, which would be a bit surprising since people can't go anywhere right now if their lease were to end.

The_Conductor

Assetbacked wrote: »

It could be the same number, which would be a bit surprising since people can't go anywhere right now if their lease were to end.

They can't go anywhere- and they can't be evicted for any reason whatsoever, so there is no impetus to have a natural progression in the rental market.

Its highly likely that when the restrictions are modified (they will be modified rather than lifted)- that there will continue to be little/no movement in the rental market.

I don't know how many Airbnb units are hitting the market (certainly a few high end units are- there are some very tasteful dwellings popping up, even in lesser desirable locations (think of some of the less salubrious parts of D1 and D7).

Times are strange- and anyone who thinks we will be returning to 'business as normal'- is most probably in for a rude awakening.

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

Could it also be the same number coming into market for usual reasons, then a few more ex Air bnbs but then nobody is able to view / rent for stock to come off market?

I think people might be noticing more coming into their price range as well due to quite a number of places reducing their asking prices. I am not seeing a huge increase in the total overall numbers on daft but there is definitely a downward correction in asking prices.

dor843088

Ozark707 wrote: »

I think people might be noticing more coming into their price range as well due to quite a number of places reducing their asking prices. I am not seeing a huge increase in the total overall numbers on daft but there is definitely a downward correction in asking prices.

I think it's fair to say that every indication is that purchase prices will fall quite a bit. If rental prices fall then investors are willing to pay less to achieve a reasonable yield so investor type properties are certain to fall in response. Surely this alone will drag the market down. What are we looking at a 20 - 30 % decline in prices ? I think 10% is a certainty 20% is likely and 30% if it gets pretty bad with unemployment etc. Painful times ahead for recent purchasers.