Property Market 2020

fliball123

Eric Cartman wrote: »

or what if those buying now are leveraging a modest 5-10% drop because the central banks might undertake massive QE which will cause inflation and prices go nowhere making those buyers shrewd.

its absolutely not an empathetic answer at all, but with all the elderly people dying, if you found a house where an elderly person was living and their kids were now out of work / fearful of the economy , id say they'd bite your hand off for 90% of asking.

Anything like this will not be sold for a long period of time. Everything EA, solicitors are on a go slow. They wont be selling it any time soon

The_Conductor

Cyrus wrote: »

this seems punchy

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-strand-street-skerries-county-dublin/4415865

Looking for a developer to buy obviously.

Fecking hell- 975k and its in Skerries.
Its a really long site- and its overlooked by at least 5 neighbouring properties.
You're not going to get permission to do anything with this- the neighbours would tie up any proposed development in red tape until Armageddon.

House itself looks like something that was tastefully decorated in the late 1970s. Its tidy and clear, but by God its dated.

I could be wrong- but I'd be shocked if this shifts without a massive reduction in its asking.

Cyrus

The_Conductor wrote: »

Fecking hell- 975k and its in Skerries.
Its a really long site- and its overlooked by at least 5 neighbouring properties.
You're not going to get permission to do anything with this- the neighbours would tie up any proposed development in red tape until Armageddon.

House itself looks like something that was tastefully decorated in the late 1970s. Its tidy and clear, but by God its dated.

I could be wrong- but I'd be shocked if this shifts without a massive reduction in its asking.

yep if its someone looking to buy to live in its a 1.5m quid house by the time its updated, extended etc

a relative sold an amazing large house last year in skerries almost on the sea for around 1m so im not sure how this pricing stacks up

sorry my memory failed me, she sold it at the very end of 2017 and it was 1.1m, but i doubt prices have increased much since then

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/house-in-skerries-where-the-lemass-family-holidayed-1.3135520

SozBbz

Eric Cartman wrote: »

its absolutely not an empathetic answer at all, but with all the elderly people dying, if you found a house where an elderly person was living and their kids were now out of work / fearful of the economy , id say they'd bite your hand off for 90% of asking.

Whilst acknowledging this is a bit dark, its probably true. Most of the fatalities are older people and a lot of them are homeowners.

However, nothing in property happens quickly in Ireland, so the houses belonging to those who have passed due to Covid 19 probably wouldn't be in a position to be sold for many months. The probate process is lengthy enough during normal times, and I imagine it will be delayed due to most govt offices being closed or working at a reduced capacity.

While I think probate sellers are most likely to take an offer for a quick sale (less emotionally involved if its not your own home) and also many homes are sold to be split between a number of siblings and also subject to inheritance tax so when all that is factored in, the amount a frop costs each individual might not seem much.

One thing however is that a lot of elderly peoples homes need substantial renovations and not all buyers have the stomach for it. There might be an even greater premium to be paid for well kept homes, especially if new builds stop coming on stream.

The_Conductor

If you're going down that road- you'll also have to consider that any residents of nursing homes who availed of the 'Fair Deal' scheme will also have to pay up to 22.5% of the value of the property to the HSE........ If the property is having a haircut- and 22.5% of the value is also going elsewhere- people might be tempted to wait it out..........

0gac3yjefb5sv7

If you're a second time buyer, can you avail of the HTB scheme for new builds?

SozBbz

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

If you're a second time buyer, can you avail of the HTB scheme for new builds?

No.

Hubertj

SozBbz wrote: »

Whilst acknowledging this is a bit dark, its probably true. Most of the fatalities are older people and a lot of them are homeowners.

However, nothing in property happens quickly in Ireland, so the houses belonging to those who have passed due to Covid 19 probably wouldn't be in a position to be sold for many months. The probate process is lengthy enough during normal times, and I imagine it will be delayed due to most govt offices being closed or working at a reduced capacity.

While I think probate sellers are most likely to take an offer for a quick sale (less emotionally involved if its not your own home) and also many homes are sold to be split between a number of siblings and also subject to inheritance tax so when all that is factored in, the amount a frop costs each individual might not seem much.

One thing however is that a lot of elderly peoples homes need substantial renovations and not all buyers have the stomach for it. There might be an even greater premium to be paid for well kept homes, especially if new builds stop coming on stream.

also will it not be difficult to value a house during this period - valuation is at time of death. if you over or under value the property it can given rise to additional tax liability

Browney7

The_Conductor wrote: »

If you're going down that road- you'll also have to consider that any residents of nursing homes who availed of the 'Fair Deal' scheme will also have to pay up to 22.5% of the value of the property to the HSE........ If the property is having a haircut- and 22.5% of the value is also going elsewhere- people might be tempted to wait it out..........

Is it not the value of the property at entry to nursing home that applies and a "loan" arrangement is created and then the estate has a certain length of time to sell the property before interest and penalties start to get added to the amount owed to the Revenue Commissioners? No doubt changes will be made to cater for extra time due to shutdowns etc but I doubt the tax man will tolerate estates taking the piss.

Villa05

duplicate

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

You have smaller landlords these guys in my opinion are the ones that may be in trouble. The fact is the small landlord has been getting out of the game for the last 5/6 years with the punitive tax rates and crazy tenant laws that means they are a sucker for any tenant who wants to act the b0ll0x. They may be the ones who will take the hair cut but then again they also have the option of just renting through this period so unless the gun is to their head they will not sell either.

Smaller landlords that survived the last crash will survive this one

fliball123 wrote:

You have people up-sizing/downsizing - There may be some activity here but with corona putting a go slow on EAs, Banks, solicitors, Movers, Tilers, Sparks, Plumbers, Painters, etc...why the hell would you move now?

This is where most activity will happen. People upgrading will benefit from a falling market. There will always be sales once lock down is lifted

Nothing will happen until lock down is lifted

fliball123 wrote:

You have Reits and investment funds and large private landlords who if they move now will not get their money back , rents have not dropped by much an by renting they get a steady income and and afford to wait. Why would you crystallize your losses??

Most reits got in early so will be in profit on residential, however they may be making big losses on commercial and may have to sell resedintial to cover commercial losses

nerrad01

I just got confirmation from my broker that the banks she deals with have all pulled exemptions across the board. I know a previous poster said they had just got one with kbc, but i imagine once you get beyond approval in principle it would be hard to get the exemption over the line.

Claw Hammer

nerrad01 wrote: »

I just got confirmation from my broker that the banks she deals with have all pulled exemptions across the board. I know a previous poster said they had just got one with kbc, but i imagine once you get beyond approval in principle it would be hard to get the exemption over the line.

Only to be expected.

Dylan94

Looking at every price chnage that occurred MyHome.ie over the past 5 days the average asking price has fallen by 10.36%.

While asking prices =/= selling prices, its a strong indication that prices will fall by a minimum of 10%.

SozBbz

Dylan94 wrote: »

Looking at every price chnage that occurred MyHome.ie over the past 5 days the average asking price has fallen by 10.36%.

While asking prices =/= selling prices, its a strong indication that prices will fall by a minimum of 10%.

How many listings have just been removed though?

Hubertj

Dylan94 wrote: »

Looking at every price chnage that occurred MyHome.ie over the past 5 days the average asking price has fallen by 10.36%.

While asking prices =/= selling prices, its a strong indication that prices will fall by a minimum of 10%.

i just took a look and didn't see many in Dublin reducing by more than 10%. Can you clarify?

pearcider

nerrad01 wrote: »

I just got confirmation from my broker that the banks she deals with have all pulled exemptions across the board. I know a previous poster said they had just got one with kbc, but i imagine once you get beyond approval in principle it would be hard to get the exemption over the line.

I posted a few days ago that JP Morgan were significantly tightening credit requiring 20% deposits at a minimum for homebuyers. Won’t be long before our banks follow suit and begin implementing the 20% rule for FTBs which was stupidly reversed by the central bank in 2016 under pressure by the shortsighted property industry who wished to reflate the bubble at any costs. This is a good thing as it will eventually give the market resilience and more importantly give breathing space to households now suffering reduced real incomes.

Ozark707

pearcider wrote: »

I posted a few days ago that JP Morgan were significantly tightening credit requiring 20% deposits at a minimum for homebuyers. Won’t be long before our banks follow suit and begin implementing the 20% rule for FTBs which was stupidly reversed by the central bank in 2016 under pressure by the shortsighted property industry who wished to reflate the bubble at any costs. This is a good thing as it will eventually give the market resilience and more importantly give breathing space to households now suffering reduced real incomes.

Whilst I would have no objection if much higher deposits were required I am not sure any government here would accede to that. This would kill the market stone dead.

Claw Hammer

pearcider wrote: »

I posted a few days ago that JP Morgan were significantly tightening credit requiring 20% deposits at a minimum for homebuyers. Won’t be long before our banks follow suit and begin implementing the 20% rule for FTBs which was stupidly reversed by the central bank in 2016 under pressure by the shortsighted property industry who wished to reflate the bubble at any costs. This is a good thing as it will eventually give the market resilience and more importantly give breathing space to households now suffering reduced real incomes.

To produce that logic to its ultimate conclusion, why give mortgages at all? Why not make people save up the full price?

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

In the real world most people can't afford a 3 bed house in Dublin

Other of course than all those people living in a 3 bed house in Dublin.

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

Other of course than all those people living in a 3 bed house in Dublin.

Not quite all of them.

No doubt some of 60,596 mortgages that are in arrears in the country are 3 bed houses in Dublin.

https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears

Dylan94

Hubertj wrote: »

i just took a look and didn't see many in Dublin reducing by more than 10%. Can you clarify?

If you go to myhome.ie/pricechanges, I took each of the price changes over the last 5 days, and they came to a average reduction of just over 10%.

8-10

pearcider wrote: »

I posted a few days ago that JP Morgan were significantly tightening credit requiring 20% deposits at a minimum for homebuyers. Won’t be long before our banks follow suit and begin implementing the 20% rule for FTBs which was stupidly reversed by the central bank in 2016 under pressure by the shortsighted property industry who wished to reflate the bubble at any costs. This is a good thing as it will eventually give the market resilience and more importantly give breathing space to households now suffering reduced real incomes.

I disagree, I really don't see them increasing it to 20% for FTB's anytime soon

Dwarf.Shortage

8-10 wrote: »

I disagree, I really don't see them increasing it to 20% for FTB's anytime soon

It's a disingenuous post to start with, the 20% was only on the excess above €300k so on a €400k house 12.5% deposit, on a €500k house a 14% deposit etc.

Even if the old system is brought back FTBs won't be asked for a 20% deposit.

Hubertj

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

It's a disingenuous post to start with, the 20% was only on the excess above €300k so on a €400k house 12.5% deposit, on a €500k house a 14% deposit etc.

Even if the old system is brought back FTBs won't be asked for a 20% deposit.

so its 10% up to 300k and 20% of anything above 300k?

Dwarf.Shortage

Hubertj wrote: »

so its 10% up to 300k and 20% of anything above 300k?

It was, then they scrapped it for a flat 10%.

pearcider

Claw Hammer wrote: »

To produce that logic to its ultimate conclusion, why give mortgages at all? Why not make people save up the full price?

That would imply the credit markets and the banking system are completely destroyed. Deposit requirements may well go higher but even I’m not that pessimistic.

For a sufficient rate of interest you will always find a willing lender. Unfortunately interest rates have been kept so low for so long that the banks are slowly going under.

JPM decision should not be viewed as a cruel action upon the hapless borrower but rather an effort to reduce its credit risk in an increasingly precarious lending environment. In short they know the housing bubble is deflating and they don’t want to lend into a falling market.

pearcider

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

It's a disingenuous post to start with, the 20% was only on the excess above €300k so on a €400k house 12.5% deposit, on a €500k house a 14% deposit etc.

Even if the old system is brought back FTBs won't be asked for a 20% deposit.

The old system didn’t have negative real rates.

Mic 1972

Dylan94 wrote: »

Looking at every price chnage that occurred MyHome.ie over the past 5 days the average asking price has fallen by 10.36%.

While asking prices =/= selling prices, its a strong indication that prices will fall by a minimum of 10%.

Be aware that you are only looking at properties with prices chances, you are not considering the rest of the properties that should also be included in your calculation

fliball123

Dylan94 wrote: »

Looking at every price chnage that occurred MyHome.ie over the past 5 days the average asking price has fallen by 10.36%.

While asking prices =/= selling prices, its a strong indication that prices will fall by a minimum of 10%.

so thats based on 16 properties now factor in the other 19015 properties that have not changed what is the average now?? 0.0001%