Property Market 2020

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

If the assumption is that people who are saying they think prices will fall are motivated by a desire to buy a property at lower prices can you shed some light on the motivations of those saying prices won't fall because supply exceeds demand?

I am not saying prices wont fall. I am saying that supply side will be starved and prices may well fall but it will be like picking the best out of a bad bunch. People are going on about all the ills that are going to see demand drop and forgetting about supply side. As I see it the following will feed into supply dropping

New builds stopped at present no building site activity - this will probably be one of the first things turned back on.

Builders not getting profit on building (why would you risk building for little or no profit)

People who were selling and can afford to keep their house off the market will as once they sell their loss is crystallized and we all know how long it takes to sell so if prices are less in 2 months time than now your always chasing your tail when selling.

People who are under pressure to sell as in no job and cant afford the mortgage can limp on in their property for years without paying as can be seen from cases from the previous crash, some people are still in their property and not paying anything.

I have been saying from the start of corona that supply will start to dry up and I have been keeping en eye on my home properties available, just before corona came in there were over 21000 properties available for sale now there are just above 19000. If this continues not many will get a property where they want and whats the 3 magic words in property , location location location.

Dwarf.Shortage

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not saying prices wont fall. I am saying that supply side will be starved and prices may well fall but it will be like picking the best out of a bad bunch. People are going on about all the ills that are going to see demand drop and forgetting about supply side. As I see it the following will feed into supply dropping

New builds stopped at present no building site activity - this will probably be one of the first things turned back on.

Builders not getting profit on building (why would you risk building for little or no profit)

People who were selling and can afford to keep their house off the market will as once they sell their loss is crystallized and we all know how long it takes to sell so if prices are less in 2 months time than now your always chasing your tail when selling.

People who are under pressure to sell as in no job and cant afford the mortgage can limp on in their property for years without paying as can be seen from cases from the previous crash, some people are still in their property and not paying anything.

I have been saying from the start of corona that supply will start to dry up and I have been keeping en eye on my home properties available, just before corona came in there were over 21000 properties available for sale now there are just above 19000. If this continues not many will get a property where they want and whats the 3 magic words in property , location location location.

I suspect a lot of the ads have expired and not been re-listed because there are no viewings and no market activity. It's pretty tenuous to assume those 2,000 units are no longer for sale because the ads went off MyHome over a 5-6 week period when the ads need to be renewed every 90 days, I'm surprised more aren't down tbh.

fliball123

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

I suspect a lot of the ads have expired and not been re-listed because there are no viewings and no market activity. It's pretty tenuous to assume those 2,000 units are no longer for sale because the ads went off MyHome over a 5-6 week period when the ads need to be renewed every 90 days, I'm surprised more aren't down tbh.

Well at the moment its the only measure we have unless you ring up every individual EA and ask also there has been a number of properties have have actually come up in a new ad on myhome in that time as well so it makes the number taken off even higher and just to be balanced some of the propeties that have come off myhome are due to sales as well. Also your premise goes both ways just because a small subset of properties asking prices have dropped by 10% on average as detailed by a previous poster it is pretty tenuous to assume that everything has or will drop by 10%.

I have said that there will be little or no activity for the duration of corona only people who have a gun to their head will sell and that would mean that the typical property staying or going up for sale would not be primary principle residences.

Just to be sure I am not telling anyone to buy or sell or saying prices will stay put , go up or go down. I am just trying to bring balance to both sides.

Dwarf.Shortage

fliball123 wrote: »

Well at the moment its the only measure we have

That doesn't mean it's in any way meaningful. I'm not going to embrace noise just because there isn't any signal available.

fliball123 wrote: »

Also your premise goes both ways just because a small subset of properties asking prices have dropped by 10% on average as detailed by a previous poster it is pretty tenuous to assume that everything has or will drop by 10%.

Agree completely, I'm not the one who made that claim and I don't intend to defend it.

fliball123

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

That doesn't mean it's in any way meaningful. I'm not going to embrace noise just because there isn't any signal available.



Agree completely, I'm not the one who made that claim and I don't intend to defend it.

So are you telling me that one of the main tools/websites people use when choosing a property for sale currently has nearly 2k less properties advertised on it now than a month ago means nothing?? This is also with some new properties coming on to the site as well??

For me and for anyone else looking at it means that basically 10% of properties that were advertised on myhome a month ago for what ever reason are now no longer being advertised for sale. So this is for 1 of 4 reasons

Reason 1: The property owner does not want to sell while there is uncertainty and the high possibility of a depression/recession and will hold on until the market is on the up
Reason 2: The ad has expired so we should see an upsurge in properties coming back onto myhome in the next couple of weeks.
Reason 3: EAs have decided to use telepathy to sell these 2k properties
Reason 4:The 2k properties in question have all sold in that time

Could be a combo of all 4

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not saying prices wont fall. I am saying that supply side will be starved and prices may well fall but it will be like picking the best out of a bad bunch. People are going on about all the ills that are going to see demand drop and forgetting about supply side. As I see it the following will feed into supply dropping

New builds stopped at present no building site activity - this will probably be one of the first things turned back on.

Builders not getting profit on building (why would you risk building for little or no profit)

People who were selling and can afford to keep their house off the market will as once they sell their loss is crystallized and we all know how long it takes to sell so if prices are less in 2 months time than now your always chasing your tail when selling.

People who are under pressure to sell as in no job and cant afford the mortgage can limp on in their property for years without paying as can be seen from cases from the previous crash, some people are still in their property and not paying anything.

I have been saying from the start of corona that supply will start to dry up and I have been keeping en eye on my home properties available, just before corona came in there were over 21000 properties available for sale now there are just above 19000. If this continues not many will get a property where they want and whats the 3 magic words in property , location location location.

I suspect the fact that there are 2000 less properties advertised for sale might have something to do with the fact that Estate Agents are closed for business.

The increased rental supply might be a better leading indicator.

I see it as basically the complete opposite of you - decreased demand will place downward pressure on prices and I suspect it will be like pushing a snowball downhill.

But that's what makes a market - differing opinions. Regardless if there is an agenda behind the opinion, some people will think the market will rise, some will see it as stable, and some will see it dropping.

Up until now it appears that the majority of active participants have broadly seen been either rise or stable.

The only thing that is absolutely certain is that at some stage in the future those who think the market is starting to drop will be in the majority and the market will post meaningful falls. I happen to think that point is in the near future.

Full disclosure - my exposure to the property market consists of a mortgage free 4 bed detached in a very sought after Dublin commuter belt location. My next property market transaction will be to sell current house and replace it with a smaller house, and hopefully bank some of the equity.

If prices fall it is highly likely that the value of my current home will fall significantly more than the intended replacement, and any equity I can bank will be less.

In other words I am far from a greedy vulture wishing for cheaper property prices to line my pockets.

Maitguel

Plus it was said on NT this morning that both Daft and My Home are offering free listings for April so wouldn’t people list their properties now if their ad expired.

Dwarf.Shortage

fliball123 wrote: »

So are you telling me that one of the main tools/websites people use when choosing a property for sale currently has nearly 2k less properties advertised on it now than a month ago means nothing?? This is also with some new properties coming on to the site as well??

For me and for anyone else looking at it means that basically 1% of properties that were advertised on myhome a month ago for what ever reason are now no longer being advertised for sale. So this is for 1 of 4 reasons

Reason 1: The property owner does not want to sell while there is uncertainty and the high possibility of a depression/recession and will hold on until the market is on the up
Reason 2: The ad has expired so we should see an upsurge in properties coming back onto myhome in the next couple of weeks.
Reason 3: EAs have decided to use telepathy to sell these 2k properties
Reason 4:The 2k properties in question have all sold in that time

Could be a combo of all 4

21,000 units listed on a 90 day refresh cycle means 7,000 expired ads a month.

A drop of 2k would only take 28% of those with expired ads to not renew their ad. Given no viewings and negligible transaction volumes I'm surprised any of the 7,000 are going back up immediately.

Dwarf.Shortage

Maitguel wrote: »

Plus it was said on NT this morning that both Daft and My Home are offering free listings for April so wouldn’t people list their properties now if their ad expired.

What if the estate agent is closed and not doing viewings, self defeating listing properties.

fliball123

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

21,000 units listed on a 90 day refresh cycle means 7,000 expired ads a month.

A drop of 2k would only take 28% of those with expired ads to not renew their ad. Given no viewings and negligible transaction volumes I'm surprised any of the 7,000 are going back up immediately.

Well lets see if it goes back up as I say day on day over the last month the figure has been coming down and thats with new properties being listed. I know if I was selling and my property was no longer on my home I would be on the EA straight away or as a previous poster said both myhome and daft are offering free ads, I would hazard a guess if they were inundated with people wanting to refresh or new ads they would not be offering this?

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

Well at the moment its the only measure we have unless you ring up every individual EA and ask also there has been a number of properties have have actually come up in a new ad on myhome in that time as well so it makes the number taken off even higher and just to be balanced some of the propeties that have come off myhome are due to sales as well. Also your premise goes both ways just because a small subset of properties asking prices have dropped by 10% on average as detailed by a previous poster it is pretty tenuous to assume that everything has or will drop by 10%.

I have said that there will be little or no activity for the duration of corona only people who have a gun to their head will sell and that would mean that the typical property staying or going up for sale would not be primary principle residences.

Just to be sure I am not telling anyone to buy or sell or saying prices will stay put , go up or go down. I am just trying to bring balance to both sides.

I think it might be more likely ads arent being taken down even if the property is withdrawn from the market. So as each ad expires the number will go down only then will the advertised number start to match the actual number.


We'll see in the next few months which it is though for sure.

fliball123

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

What if the estate agent is closed and not doing viewings, self defeating listing properties.

EA offices are closed but they are still working they have been kept busy with the restructuring of the whole lending model exploding by people being aloud stay in rental accommodation for free.

Claw Hammer

Hubertj wrote: »

Are BTRs mostly apartments? In future as more families are formed are there / will there be enough “family” units available whether it is larger apartments or 3 bed+ houses? Some very interesting discussion here. Thank you.

The current BTRs are invariably apartments. The converse is almost always the case as well, that present. Spec builders cannot afford to build blocks of apartments as things stand. BTR investors are not interested in providing accommodation for families. Their ideal tenants are well-paid professionals who are mobile and single. The main way the supply of family suitable accommodation can be increased is to make it easier for downside is to move out of empty nest family homes and into smaller apartment units. At present, downsizing is to daunting prospect for many elderly people.

hometruths

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

What if the estate agent is closed and not doing viewings, self defeating listing properties.

Funny you should mention viewings.

If somebody is counting the decline of the number of properties listed on myhome over the last month as an indicator of supply they ought to apply the same logic to the number of viewings over the last month.

So listings have dropped by 10% but viewings have dropped to zero. So a 100% drop!!

Quite obviously the drop in demand far exceeds the drop in supply. Simple economics dictates that there is a humungous property crash incoming!!

Hold on tight!

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Funny you should mention viewings.

If somebody is counting the decline of the number of properties listed on myhome over the last month as an indicator of supply they ought to apply the same logic to the number of viewings over the last month.

So listings have dropped by 10% but viewings have dropped to zero. So a 100% drop!!

Quite obviously the drop in demand far exceeds the drop in supply. Simple economics dictates that there is a humungous property crash incoming!!

Hold on tight!

Well hardly surprising when corona more or less bars viewings. Have you numbers on people using online viewings?

Simple economics is supply vs demand both sides are coming down are you saying that there is zero people out there looking to buy?

Also I have said that prices are coming down all I am pointing out is the supply side is coming down too and keeping to simple economics if the supply side comes down to where demand is then we are in a stalemate which is probably where we are currently lots of people pulling property off the market and lots of people not being able to buy due to the current conditions with employment and lending drying up

Dwarf.Shortage

fliball123 wrote: »

Well lets see if it goes back up as I say day on day over the last month the figure has been coming down and thats with new properties being listed. I know if I was selling and my property was no longer on my home I would be on the EA straight away or as a previous poster said both myhome and daft are offering free ads, I would hazard a guess if they were inundated with people wanting to refresh or new ads they would not be offering this?

You've came all the way around to now arguing my point for me.

No I don't think anyone wants to refresh an ad, that's been my point for my last 3 posts.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

For me and for anyone else looking at it means that basically 10% of properties that were advertised on myhome a month ago for what ever reason are now no longer being advertised for sale. So this is for 1 of 4 reasons

No point putting your house up for sale when people are not allowed out for the purpose of viewing houses for sale

fliball123 wrote:

EA offices are closed but they are still working they have been kept busy with the restricting of the whole lending model exploding by people being aloud stay in rental accommodation for free.

I'm sure those those 2 duties are worth the effort of putting in 39 hours a week. Revenue streams are dead. Rents are collected via standing order/direct debit EA are doing very Very little

fliball123

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

You've came all the way around to now arguing my point for me.

No I don't think anyone wants to refresh an ad, that's been my point for my last 3 posts.

So would you agree these properties are now no longer actively up for sale?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I suspect the fact that there are 2000 less properties advertised for sale might have something to do with the fact that Estate Agents are closed for business.

The increased rental supply might be a better leading indicator.

I see it as basically the complete opposite of you - decreased demand will place downward pressure on prices and I suspect it will be like pushing a snowball downhill.

But that's what makes a market - differing opinions. Regardless if there is an agenda behind the opinion, some people will think the market will rise, some will see it as stable, and some will see it dropping.

Up until now it appears that the majority of active participants have broadly seen been either rise or stable.

The only thing that is absolutely certain is that at some stage in the future those who think the market is starting to drop will be in the majority and the market will post meaningful falls. I happen to think that point is in the near future.

Full disclosure - my exposure to the property market consists of a mortgage free 4 bed detached in a very sought after Dublin commuter belt location. My next property market transaction will be to sell current house and replace it with a smaller house, and hopefully bank some of the equity.

If prices fall it is highly likely that the value of my current home will fall significantly more than the intended replacement, and any equity I can bank will be less.

In other words I am far from a greedy vulture wishing for cheaper property prices to line my pockets.

I agree with most of your post except that I think the majority in this thread accept there will be price decreases. Debate seems to be on extent - 5% to 50% depending on which “property economist” gives their “opinion”. I don’t know enough about property to formulate an opinion but do think there will be a decent size correction. Given so much uncertainty - when will this end, how long to get economy up and running, unemployment figures, EU and govt stimulus initiatives etc means there are so many variables that can impact property and other parts of the Irish, European and global economy.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

No point putting your house up for sale when people are not allowed out for the purpose of viewing houses for sale



I'm sure those those 2 duties are worth the effort of putting in 39 hours a week. Revenue streams are dead. Rents are collected via standing order/direct debit EA are doing very Very little

Really so all rentals that go through EAs they have to restructure the deals to allow people no longer working not having to pay, just because the government tell the people you no longer have to pay rent, it doesn't just magically happen. The EAs would of been busy over the last 3/4 weeks, maybe not so much now.

Dwarf.Shortage

fliball123 wrote: »

So would you agree these properties are now no longer active up for sale?

TBH I believe the bulk of the 19,000 that are still listed essentially aren't for active sale as people are extremely reluctant to buy a home without a physical viewing.

Further I believe the drop from 21,000 to 19,000 is estate agents recognising this and not bothering to re list houses that they cannot sell. I expect the bulk of these houses are still intended to be sold but cannot be right now because nobody can view them.

fliball123

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

TBH I believe the bulk of the 19,000 that are still listed essentially aren't for active sale as people are extremely reluctant to buy a home without a physical viewing.

Further I believe the drop from 21,000 to 19,000 is estate agents recognising this and not bothering to re list houses that they cannot sell. I expect the bulk of these houses are still intended to be sold but cannot be right now because nobody can view them.

So like I have been saying we are in a stalemate . People are lambasting me for saying supply side is coming down. I have already said on here numerous times that prices will fall but that people who take advantage of this will have to buy a pig with some lipstick on it.

Dwarf.Shortage

fliball123 wrote: »

So like I have been saying we are in a stalemate . People are lambasting me for saying supply side is coming down. I have already said on here numerous times that prices will fall but that people who take advantage of this will have to buy a pig with some lipstick on it.

People are not lambasting you, they are pointing out holes in your argument.

fliball123

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

People are not lambasting you, they are pointing out holes in your argument.

What holes people are saying EAs are not working (on sales), people are not bothering to refresh or put up new myhome or daft ads which are free and then think that these properties are still actively up for sale or still in the supply side of this economic equation that makes up the price of something, my contention is that they are not as there is no mechanism to view or see the properties either online or in person. Therefore the property cannot be up for sale unless the property owner /EA is using Telekinesis to let the world know this property is for sale. This means supply is being drastically cut.

eagle eye

We are not far enough along yet for panic to set in.
You'll see that in another two to three months.
There will suddenly be a glut of houses on the market and then the prices start to drop.
Plenty of properties will come off the market too in situations where the owners are financially secure and are willing to wait out the downturn. There's a lot more people who are not financially secure than are though.

Dwarf.Shortage

fliball123 wrote: »

What holes people are saying EAs are not working (on sales), people are not bothering to refresh or put up new myhome or daft ads which are free and then think that these properties are still actively up for sale or still in the supply side of this economic equation that makes up the price of something, my contention is that they are not as there is no mechanism to view or see the properties either online or in person. Therefore the property cannot be up for sale unless the property owner /EA is using Telekinesis to let the world know this property is for sale. This means supply is being drastically cut.

There is no market right now, no transactions taking place. We can say that's because there's no supply or because there's no demand but essentially there is nowhere for the two to meet so picking one or the other as the issue is largely arbitrary.

Your assertion that when the market can resume normal function only the "pigs with lipstick" will resurface and the decent units that were for sale before the market seized are gone forever is the issue.

fliball123

eagle eye wrote: »

We are not far enough along yet for panic to set in.
You'll see that in another two to three months.
There will suddenly be a glut of houses on the market and then the prices start to drop.
Plenty of properties will come off the market too in situations where the owners are financially secure and are willing to wait out the downturn. There's a lot more people who are not financially secure than are though.

Like I say the people not financially secure have options Renting there property out or not bothering to pay the mortgage is another. No other country has this second option. In Ireland you can get away with not paying your mortgage for years and you can not be forced out under Irish law. Some people are still doing this from the last crash. There are lots of dynamics going on here that people are not factoring in, its just the doom of an impending recession/depression.

fliball123

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

There is no market right now, no transactions taking place. We can say that's because there's no supply or because there's no demand but essentially there is nowhere for the two to meet so picking one or the other as the issue is largely arbitrary.

Your assertion that when the market can resume normal function only the "pigs with lipstick" will resurface and the decent units that were for sale before the market seized are gone forever is the issue.

No my assertion is that any one putting a decent property back up for sale will only do so when they are assured of getting the price they want. There will be some distressed selling that is a given and some of this will be of decent properties but like I say there are a lot of mechanisms that give a seller in this country the opportunity to hold onto a property a lot longer than in other countries.

landofthetree

2020 Budget deficit €23 billion
220,000 net jobs will be lost this year, and it’ll take until 2022 to get back to where Ireland was pre-crisis.

Unemployment will stand at 13.9% at the end of the year.

The State will not only run a deficit of €23bn this year… but close to €14bn *next* year too.

This will be the deepest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, says the Dept of Finance's chief economist.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1252597960657055745

I can't see how prices aren't going to fall significantly given all the above.

SozBbz

landofthetree wrote: »

2020 Budget deficit €23 billion
220,000 net jobs will be lost this year, and it’ll take until 2022 to get back to where Ireland was pre-crisis.

Unemployment will stand at 13.9% at the end of the year.

The State will not only run a deficit of €23bn this year… but close to €14bn *next* year too.

This will be the deepest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, says the Dept of Finance's chief economist.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1252597960657055745

I can't see how prices aren't going to fall significantly given all the above.

The above is not a given. You've provided no basis for your assertions save a link to Gavin Reillys twitter.

Of course its bad but its not a true economic recession. We don't know how things are going to pan out. It's not a foregone conclusion that it will be as bad as you've described.