Property Market 2020

fliball123

voluntary wrote: »

Interest rates will only be going down in the foreseeable future. The prices are falling down, raw materials are falling down, OIL is falling down, everything is falling down. Inflation is a no-issue at the moment.

And probably wont be for a number of years. I wonder if there will be some outside the box thinking for people trying to get on the ladder and doing multi-generational mortgages so say a mortgage over 50 years but your kids takes over when you retire or if they dont want to the place is sold and you have your equity in the house to bring with you. I think China or Japan have some structure like this available

voluntary

JimmyVik wrote: »

Normally I would have thought that landlords looking to sell might now stay as landlords until sale prices recover

Depending on the markets and thousands of other variables, prices may or may not recover. They may stay below today's level for the next 20 years. We don't know how this is going to play out. A prudent person wouldn't be assuming the prices 'will recover' as they may not. They could as well have peaked for a long, long time.

Anything more is speculation only.

Villa05

TheW1zard wrote:

Newstalk yesterday!

Do you recall what show that was mentioned on. Debt write down to market value would work for the Bank, but surely it would be a pointless exercise it the mortgage holder is not paying anything

Is it debt write-down with possession of the property switching to the bank

fliball123 wrote:

Landlords are already paying full tax so 51% does to the tax man not to mention property tax, home & life insurance, mortgage. I don't think there is much room to maneuver here. Maybe the reits and vultures who I think are only paying 25% I could be wrong in this but I thought I seen that tax rate being bandied about for what they pay

Reits and vulture were paying little to no tax and were allowed to register as charities up till recently, if not at present

Daylight robbery of the taxpayer

19233974

So what are the predictions for the reit`s? I walk past phase 3 of clancy quay every morning and they are pretty much completed but obviously all lying empty.

with rents proposed at around €2000 for a 1 bed, and 2300 for a 2 bed, surely these returns are now unachievable.
Are the REITs in a position to sit and wait it out, drop the rents or look to sell some properties?

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

Landlords are already paying full tax so 51% does to the tax man not to mention property tax, home & life insurance, mortgage. I don't think there is much room to maneuver here. Maybe the reits and vultures who I think are only paying 25% I could be wrong in this but I thought I seen that tax rate being bandied about for what they pay

The loading up of the housing crisis on landlords shoulders over the last 5 or 6 years would suggest that nobody cares what they can shoulder. Driving them out of the rental market helps noone though.


I would agree that REITS should pay the same level of tax as private landlords do. But it should meet in the middle. Make tax lower for private landlords and make it higher for the REITS. No point driving the REITS out too.

JimmyVik

voluntary wrote: »

Interest rates will only be going down in the foreseeable future. The prices are falling down, raw materials are falling down, OIL is falling down, everything is falling down. Inflation is a no-issue at the moment.

If the banks lose more money to defaulters in Ireland, mortgage interest rates will be going up, no matter what other interest rates do,

JimmyVik

voluntary wrote: »

Depending on the markets and thousands of other variables, prices may or may not recover. They may stay below today's level for the next 20 years. We don't know how this is going to play out. A prudent person wouldn't be assuming the prices 'will recover' as they may not. They could as well have peaked for a long, long time.

Anything more is speculation only.

But past experience tells me that prices always recover. So I think thats more likely than them never recovering

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

And probably wont be for a number of years. I wonder if there will be some outside the box thinking for people trying to get on the ladder and doing multi-generational mortgages so say a mortgage over 50 years but your kids takes over when you retire or if they dont want to the place is sold and you have your equity in the house to bring with you. I think China or Japan have some structure like this available

50 year mortgages based on equity in 30 odd years time to fund a smaller property purchase is shaky ground.

grindle

JimmyVik wrote: »

But past experience tells me that prices always recover. So I think thats more likely than them never recovering

To add to this, a prudent person doesn't only presume the negative of a situation - they're careful and they capitalise on opportunities.

If prices fall 30-50% it wouldn't shock me, and prudent purchasers will have money on the sidelines for it.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

I wonder if there will be some outside the box thinking for people trying to get on the ladder and doing multi-generational mortgages so say a mortgage over 50 years but your kids takes over when you retire or if they dont want to the place is sold and you have your equity in the house to bring with you. I think China or Japan have some structure like this available

No chance while we are members of the EU. Lending rules were put in place to avoid this craziness

JimmyVik wrote:

I would agree that REITS should pay the same level of tax as private landlords do. But it should meet in the middle. Make tax lower for private landlords and make it higher for the REITS. No point driving the REITS out too.

25 to 30% Vat like tax, you cannot avoid it. Levels the playing field and the state gets a dividend for the value it adds to property

This needs to be backed up with an adequate property tax so that owners also pay

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

Do you recall what show that was mentioned on. Debt write down to market value would work for the Bank, but surely it would be a pointless exercise it the mortgage holder is not paying anything

Is it debt write-down with possession of the property switching to the bank




Reits and vulture were paying little to no tax and were allowed to register as charities up till recently, if not at present

Daylight robbery of the taxpayer

yeah I think the 25% is just a headline figure but they are doing what any other company working out of the country can do

fliball123

Augeo wrote: »

50 year mortgages based on equity in 30 odd years time to fund a smaller property purchase is shaky ground.

Maybe but at the very least you have a place that is yours and do not have to pay rent. when the person retires one thing for sure is there will be a lot less owed on the property than when they started. I am talking about a structure where people have certainty of housing but not wanting to pay the sky high rents or mortgages. If it was drawn out over 50 years instead of 30/20 it would be a lot more affordable it would also leave your kids with an asset or place to call home for their future.

Ozark707

19233974 wrote: »

So what are the predictions for the reit`s? I walk past phase 3 of clancy quay every morning and they are pretty much completed but obviously all lying empty.

with rents proposed at around €2000 for a 1 bed, and 2300 for a 2 bed, surely these returns are now unachievable.
Are the REITs in a position to sit and wait it out, drop the rents or look to sell some properties?

Clancy quay is not the only REIT in this situation. The others have been happy to wait it out with empty units it seems.... but now that rents are dropping will they continue to do so? What will happen if you are one of the people already paying 2k for a 1 bed in Clancy Quay and realise you can do much better elsewhere? Interesting times ahead in the rental market

ittakestwo

JimmyVik wrote: »

But past experience tells me that prices always recover. So I think thats more likely than them never recovering

Tell that to a person who bought in Tokyo in 1990.

And this is what is facing Europa now too, years/decades of being trapped in a deflationary cycle.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Just heard from my mortgage advisor that banks are pulling all exemptions until at least the end of the year.

fliball123

ittakestwo wrote: »

Tell that to a person who bought in Tokyo in 1990.

And this is what is facing Europa now too, years/decades of being trapped in a deflationary cycle.

why not just look back at 2008 in a country that we know well and actually live in its called Ireland?

fliball123

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Just heard from my mortgage advisor that banks are pulling all exemptions until at least the end of the year.

All banks

Browney7

19233974 wrote: »

So what are the predictions for the reit`s? I walk past phase 3 of clancy quay every morning and they are pretty much completed but obviously all lying empty.

with rents proposed at around €2000 for a 1 bed, and 2300 for a 2 bed, surely these returns are now unachievable.
Are the REITs in a position to sit and wait it out, drop the rents or look to sell some properties?

No doubt the state will snap up a 25 year lease at bad value for money terms for the tax payer and hail it as taking "decisive action to alleviate the housing crisis".

Marius34

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Just heard from my mortgage advisor that banks are pulling all exemptions until at least the end of the year.

I believe this could be for new applications. Not for the approved ones?
As far as I remember it was a similar case on exemptions in 2018, where by April most of Bank run out of exemptions.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Marius34 wrote: »

I believe this could be for new applications. Not for the approved ones?
As far as I remember it was a similar case on exemptions in 2018, where by April most of Bank run out of exemptions.

Yep for new applications.

19233974

Marius34 wrote: »

I believe this could be for new applications. Not for the approved ones?
As far as I remember it was a similar case on exemptions in 2018, where by April most of Bank run out of exemptions.

I imagine unless you are sale agreed, getting the exemption from AIP to sale agreed could be tricky even for previously approved ones

Bigmac1euro

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Neighbour of ours, fairly central in Rathmines (Leinster Road) was given the option to drop asking price or take it off the market for the time being yesterday by their EA.

They were selling a relatively modern 3-Bed Mews for 790k asking (Overpriced anyway IMO) but now going off the market.

Link: https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/7-louis-lane-leinster-road-rathmines-dublin-6-d06x923/4407994

This is very interesting.
A property I was looking at also DNG was pulled off the market this morning and I know the couple wasn't in a rush to sell.

I reckon DNG are obviously trying to get people to consider lowering their prices or they wont entertain selling the properties as they need to keep business moving.

Price reductions incoming.
Short supply incoming.

Jet Black

House on my road was sale agreed at the start of the year, seller was on Facebook saying it fell through because of the virus. Back up again with 10k off the asking.

pearcider

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe but at the very least you have a place that is yours and do not have to pay rent. when the person retires one thing for sure is there will be a lot less owed on the property than when they started. I am talking about a structure where people have certainty of housing but not wanting to pay the sky high rents or mortgages. If it was drawn out over 50 years instead of 30/20 it would be a lot more affordable it would also leave your kids with an asset or place to call home for their future.

Wow the bulls are recommending 50 year mortgages now. Never mind the interest rate risk you are assuming. If interest rates rise, then you’re dead in the water. I would say again you won’t need a 50 year mortgage where we’re going.

eagle eye

Jet Black wrote:

House on my road was sale agreed at the start of the year, seller was on Facebook saying it fell through because of the virus. Back up again with 10k off the asking.

What price was/is the house?

Cyrus

Folks, anything that will make it easier for people to buy houses will push prices up, we as a nation cant help ourselves,

so if thats decrease in the CB restrictions, or 50 year mortgages or anything else, itll lead to rapid price inflation.

Only for the CB restrictions house prices would have continued to rise starkly over the past 3 years.

Gav19801

What about this theory:

The unprecedented levels of QE is ensuring finance is still available,

If all this debt is going to sit on the governments balance sheet then the quickest way to erode that is to create inflation.

Remember Rich Dads Good Debt Vs Bad Debt?

So could now actually be a good time to be acquiring assets such as property?

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

Folks, anything that will make it easier for people to buy houses will push prices up, we as a nation cant help ourselves,

so if thats decrease in the CB restrictions, or 50 year mortgages or anything else, itll lead to rapid price inflation.

Only for the CB restrictions house prices would have continued to rise starkly over the past 3 years.

yeah but you cant ignore the fact that people on the left have been screaming blue murder at a certain cohort of people not being able to get on the ladder so what do you do ?

GreeBo

Hubertj wrote: »

Rathfarnham hasn’t been the same since club Sarah closed.

Actually it hasnt changed at all, its still full of young kids.

Donald Trump

Gav19801 wrote: »

What about this theory:

The unprecedented levels of QE is ensuring finance is still available,

If all this debt is going to sit on the governments balance sheet then the quickest way to erode that is to create inflation.

Remember Rich Dads Good Debt Vs Bad Debt?

So could now actually be a good time to be acquiring assets such as property?

EU has a target inflation of something like 2% that isn't supposed to be broken.