Property Market 2020

darlett

Jesus Christ. Have been trying to position myself to buy a house for 3 years saving deposit and was finally getting in the zone meeting broker etc pre-covid. Come here regularly looking for pointers, information is power and that. Wondering is now the time to strike with a reduced bid or two, or should one wait a year until the arse potentially falls out of the country and the market?!

But today? I mean yes, there's usually(read always) a few quare agendas in here fair enough, you attempt to read between the lines, but it has to be said the biscuit has truly been taken by attempting to solve the Irish housing crisis by commandeering a few golf courses and/or the Aviva? :pac: FML, seems After Hours needs higher fences to stop their escapees getting loose. That there Phoenix Park would surely take a well planned town or two.

Cuddlesworth

fliball123 wrote: »

I wonder if the powers that be could allow owners of commercial spaces the option to redesign and use it as residential it might be a way to help the housing crisis, obviously some spaces wont be suitable but some would

Or you could just tax them based on the value of the property, regardless of use, to make land banking a risky venture and remove the profit from it. Value which is created primarily by the tax payer, not the owner. Taxation would cause property prices to stall, as there would be a correction between the value of a properly and the ongoing cost.

kevinc565

farm in the suburbs. residents complained to no avail i think.

https://marlet.ie/portfolio/green-acres/

fliball123

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Or you could just tax them based on the value of the property, regardless of use, to make land banking a risky venture and remove the profit from it. Value which is created primarily by the tax payer, not the owner. Taxation would cause property prices to stall, as there would be a correction between the value of a properly and the ongoing cost.

Why remove the profit from this. Why are you looking to punitively punish people who have an asset one which someone somewhere has paid good cash for at some stage. So hows about before we do what you ask you hand over all your wage as a tax on your profits and you can live off the same money people get on the dole. Why bother trying to better yourself and try to get ahead when people like you are looking to jump on your back and trying to slow you down or stop you altogether??

eagle eye

Shut down golf courses, forced cheap sale of lands? If you want that sort of stuff I'm sure there's some fascist dictatorship running some country you can move to.

fliball123

eagle eye wrote: »

Shut down golf courses, forced cheap sale of lands? If you want that sort of stuff I'm sure there's some fascist dictatorship running some country you can move to.

Some fecking crazy suggestions going on in here. The lefties in this country are going to ruin any kind of recovery as if someone even starts getting ahead their will a 100% tax target put on their backs but all for the greater good its getting to cult levels now someone get the cool aid quick and let the lefties drink it

fliball123

pearcider wrote: »

Your pointless comments on this thread say a lot more about you than me. Of course the property bulls will always try and shut down debate especially when all the evidence is stacked against them.

I dont think they have shut down the debate, you have had your opinion that prices are going to drop anywhere from 30% to 50% and people have not agreed with you. I have said property will drop but no where near what your outlining and you consider me a bull simply because I was outlining the fact that the supply side was coming down as well and pointing out that the game is still supply vs demand. I have agreed that the oncoming recession/depression will bring prices down but the person buying will be buying the best from a bad bunch and no one not you or I or anyone else knows what way property prices will be in 3/6 or 12 months time as the pandemic is unprecedented and unpredictable. What happens if tomorrow a vaccine is found and within the matter of a month its cleared or what happens if lockdown remains in place for 3 - 5 years? Too many variables and moving parts to be giving advice to anyone buying or selling to be honest

Tallback

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I don't think the market has had a chance to crash.


Judging by my own anecdotal evidence, there's about 70% drop in property listings. Buyers and sellers are keeping their powder dry for the time being.
That said, I spoke to my solicitor who told me her twenty or so clients were proceeding with purchase, but they have a longer term outlook and were much further in the process than me. Since I enlisted her services 6 weeks ago, no one else has called her regarding purchases.

We went sale agreed on a property in Jan with a target May close (for vendor reasons). Our current thinking is to proceed as although there is likely to be property price drops, my sense is that these will take some time to manifest, and possibly greater than a year for suitable/attractive homes. In the first instance sellers will either maintain their existing pricing or just withdraw from the market - leading imho to a bit of a standoff for a while.

fliball123

Tallback wrote: »

We went sale agreed on a property in Jan with a target May close (for vendor reasons). Our current thinking is to proceed as although there is likely to be property price drops, my sense is that these will take some time to manifest, and possibly greater than a year for suitable/attractive homes. In the first instance sellers will either maintain their existing pricing or just withdraw from the market - leading imho to a bit of a standoff for a while.

A lot of properties are being stiffened off and this will continue for the foreseeable future the majority of properties that will come on stream in the next year will be BtL where the owner is right in the crapper.

Hubertj

pearcider wrote: »

Your pointless comments on this thread say a lot more about you than me. Of course the property bulls will always try and shut down debate especially when all the evidence is stacked against them.

bull and bear bol*ox.... that says plenty about you. You seem to call anyone who disagrees with you a bull while you spout a load of "opinions" as "facts".

Property prices will obviously fall, nobody is arguing that. Your just some lad posting on boards to make themselves feel big. If that helps you then enjoy

Tallback

fliball123 wrote: »

A lot of properties are being stiffened off and this will continue for the foreseeable future the majority of properties that will come on stream in the next year will be BtL where the owner is right in the crapper.

Yeah - that's our sense of it, it took us a while to find a house that we were happy with even in the "normal" market.

So - we might get a cheaper house but I think it would be in the medium term i.e. 1-3 years. On top of which there's always the risks around getting and maintaining mortgage approval - which reduces flexibility.

I'm fairly sure that asking for any meaningful reduction in price will just collapse the sale.

So, we'll prob proceed with our eyes open as much as possible.

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

Singapore is your comparison? Do you know what most people live in in Singapore? It's not a house anyway.

GreeBo wrote:

Also the question was where would we build all theses houses in Dublin? High density belongs in city centres, not in suburbs, or bloody golf courses.

I suggest that you read my post before responding. The article posted answers all your questions, and gives clues as to why it has not happened to date

I never mentioned golf course or stadia nor did I compare anything to Singapore

fliball123

Tallback wrote: »

Yeah - that's our sense of it, it took us a while to find a house that we were happy with even in the "normal" market.

So - we might get a cheaper house but I think it would be in the medium term i.e. 1-3 years. On top of which there's always the risks around getting and maintaining mortgage approval - which reduces flexibility.

I'm fairly sure that asking for any meaningful reduction in price will just collapse the sale.

So, we'll prob proceed with our eyes open as much as possible.

Well if its a house that your happy to see negative equity in it for a few years and one which you will live out your days in then good luck with it but I would be trying to delay it as long as possible as if property does take a huge nose dive you might save yourself a fortune

JimmyVik

Everybody always wants to tax someone else for their own benefit.
Usually when you see someone spouting about taxing something or someone, you will find that its for their personal gain and of course they wont be the ones taxed with their suggestion.

Best ignored tbh

Tallback

fliball123 wrote: »

Well if its a house that your happy to see negative equity in it for a few years and one which you will live out your days in then good luck with it but I would be trying to delay it as long as possible as if property does take a huge nose dive you might save yourself a fortune

How long to delay realistically though on this sale (which is in a chain)?

Do you anticipate a "nose dive" within 1-3 months?

I appreciate the point about potentially saving a fortune - but to achieve that it might be necessary to delay life for a couple of years at a minimum. Looking at the CSO pricing data, it took 15 months + for prices to drop 25% during the last crash and almost 5 years from peak to trough.

eagle eye

Tallback wrote:

Do you anticipate a "nose dive" within 1-3 months?

I project early to mid-July, that's when all second quarter report numbers and projections based off of them become available.

fliball123

Tallback wrote: »

How long to delay realistically though on this sale (which is in a chain)?

Do you anticipate a "nose dive" within 1-3 months?

I appreciate the point about potentially saving a fortune - but to achieve that it might be necessary to delay life for a couple of years at a minimum. Looking at the CSO pricing data, it took 15 months + for prices to drop 25% during the last crash and almost 5 years from peak to trough.

Not sure to be honest and anyone stating otherwise does not know either..Both supply and demand is dwindling and the price of anything is always the basic economic premise of supply vs demand but with property you have to consider the whole credit side as in its availability.

What I would say is give it 2/3 months if you can, at least you will know if we are on our uppers and corona is gone even temporarily also it might give the sellers a bit of perspective as if the sh1t hits the fan they may be more willing to give you a discount at the very least you could ask the worst they can say is no.

I wouldn't take too much analysis from the last crash and apply it here as every crash is different. Already we are looking at higher unemployment then the last one but no one knows how long this level will remain. There will be other indicators such as rental reports which will tell us if property has started dropping for anger or not.

Good luck with it and let the boardies know how your going with it

ELM327

Hubertj wrote: »

bull and bear bol*ox.... that says plenty about you. You seem to call anyone who disagrees with you a bull while you spout a load of "opinions" as "facts".

Property prices will obviously fall, nobody is arguing that. Your just some lad posting on boards to make themselves feel big. If that helps you then enjoy

Arent we all :D:D
But I do agree, Bull and Bear nonsense is not relevant if you're buying a (god I despise this term) FOREVER HOME

Hubertj

pearcider wrote: »

I will continue posting my opinions on the property market. That is the point of the the thread after all.

Your opinion of me means nothing to me.

so they are opinions now and not facts. Thank you for clarifying. I also agree that my opinion of you should not matter to you or anyone else. That is very important on the internet.

pearcider

Hubertj wrote: »

bull and bear bol*ox.... that says plenty about you. You seem to call anyone who disagrees with you a bull while you spout a load of "opinions" as "facts".

Property prices will obviously fall, nobody is arguing that. Your just some lad posting on boards to make themselves feel big. If that helps you then enjoy

Your personal attacks on me are just childish as well as totally off topic and pointless.

I will continue to post my opinions on the property market on this thread and your silly posts do not deter me in the slightest.

Dwarf.Shortage

eagle eye wrote: »

I project early to mid-July, that's when all second quarter report numbers and projections based off of them become available.

I think there'll be an element of the phoney war to that report, there's no market to make deductions from. I agree that usually that would be key data but with no viewings and negligible numbers of transactions I can't see that report being very illuminating.

SozBbz

pearcider wrote: »

Your personal attacks on me are just childish as well as totally off topic and pointless.

I will continue to post my opinions on the property market on this thread and your silly posts do not deter me in the slightest.

Its not a personal attack, stop being dramatic.

I too find the whole constant Bull/Bear thing tiresome at best. Stop trying to make it a thing - no one else is having it.

pearcider

Hubertj wrote: »

so they are opinions now and not facts. Thank you for clarifying. I also agree that my opinion of you should not matter to you or anyone else. That is very important on the internet.

The facts I am referring to are for example the central banks actions of blowing up this insane asset bubble. Or the rising number of properties to rent. Lower prices and rents will be a good thing in the long run as the growth of the rentier class has been disastrous for both the real economy and social cohesion in the western world.

fliball123

pearcider wrote: »

The facts I am referring to are for example the central banks actions of blowing up this insane asset bubble. Or the rising number of properties to rent. Lower prices and rents will be a good thing in the long run as the growth of the rentier class has been disastrous for both the real economy and social cohesion in the western world.

People have either agreed with your facts or brought other proof to bare against them or to counter them but when someone gives you a fact that doesn't adhere to your private agenda you start with the bear bull stuff instead of trying to dispute or find evidence against it

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

The point is someone owns that land someone at some time had to pay for it. Why should they give it up for the greater good and you or I not give up anything that we have spare? why just a levy for vacant land why not a levy for when your not living in your gaff.. A levy when you go on holidays? Why not a levy on your car when your not using it. Is it a case of you don't have a vacant site so we should tax that?? Everyone everywhere wants the other person to pay and this is a simple case of it

The concept is quiet simple, a vacant site levy is there to discourage development land hoarding which is a problem. It is inefficient use of land

Taxing inefficiency is much more beneficial to the economy than taxing work.
Your argument amounts to throwing the toys out of the pram to get your way

fliball123 wrote:

Why remove the profit from this. Why are you looking to punitively punish people who have an asset one which someone somewhere has paid good cash for at some stage. So hows about before we do what you ask you hand over all your wage as a tax on your profits and you can live off the same money people get on the dole. Why bother trying to better yourself and try to get ahead when people like you are looking to jump on your back and trying to slow you down or stop you altogether??

Again with regard to agricultural land as we have said before there is plenty of agricultural land in the country. Using land for agriculture where there is a dire need for housing/commercial property is inefficient use of an asset.
Agri land values are highly inflated as result of subsidies from the EU.

Offering a farmer market value + 25% for their land is hardly a punitive measure

Dwarf.Shortage

Villa05 wrote: »

Offering a farmer market value + 25% for their land is hardly a punitive measure

I agree but it's important to take a holistic view of what it does to their operation. It's all well and good saying we need 4 acres for a public project, market value is €40k here's €50k.

But if losing that 4 acres splits their land in two or in some other way compromises and makes much more difficult the running of their farm they need to be compensated for that too.

GreeBo

ittakestwo wrote: »

Its shocking how Elm golf club in D4, miltown golf club in D6 and clontarf are still being used in this wasteful way. All of these golf clubs are cycling/walking distance from town and also have the dart/luas lines running contiguous with thier perimeters.

Go there on weekday and you might see a few old farts waddling around them yet they could be used for thousands of dwellings. The need to be moved out the N11/M1 into places like Wicklow and Meath

There also not public spaces. If you go onto them you are trespassing if your not a member so nobody can start "we need green space" argument with private gold clubs. Dun Laoghaire council very successfully turned Dun Laoghaire golf club into high density housing so why aren't others.

Firstly we don't have the infrastructure to get more people from the likes of Milltown into town.
Secondly, as I said earlier, how much do you reckon any home built on a golf course in your suggested locations is going to cost?

Remind me how much those houses in Dun Laoghaire cost?
The cheapest I cant find in Cualanor is a 1 bed apartment for €330,000.
With prices over 800K for others.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

The concept is quiet simple, a vacant site levy is there to discourage development land hoarding which is a problem. It is inefficient use of land

Taxing inefficiency is much more beneficial to the economy than taxing work.
Your argument amounts to throwing the toys out of the pram to get your way




Again with regard to agricultural land as we have said before there is plenty of agricultural land in the country. Using land for agriculture where there is a dire need for housing/commercial property is inefficient use of an asset.
Agri land values are highly inflated as result of subsidies from the EU.

Offering a farmer market value + 25% for their land is hardly a punitive measure

Ok so does that mean that when your in work and your inefficient like making a personal phone call or playing Tetris or logging onto boards and coming up with ridiculous taxes can the government tax you 100% for this or for any other inefficiencies going on in your life.

Hows about we go through each employee and tax them as per their inefficiencies instead of what they earn? Thats in effect what your doing here with land/property.

My argument is your forgetting that someone somewhere had to pay for the land and the cash used to pay would of been subject to them working, hense the money paid to buy the land is after tax money so that's one lot of tax paid, they would of had to stamp duty and VAT on certain land sites. If the person wants to sell they will also have to pay capital gains on any profit made on it. In my opinion the person who owns the land has already contributed regardless of their being an inefficiency there or not. Like I say lets start with your wage and tax you on your inefficiency and see how we go as if the criteria is inefficiency surrender yourself up first for the greater good.

Also by your inefficiency analogy every single or double story house in the country should be knocked down and rebuilt with 20 stories built and you can get your space back but with a couple of hundred people living on top. We are all about efficiency after all.

jrosen

Dont we already had a land hoarding levy/tax?

Im pretty sure months back I saw something on TV talking through vacant land and how a huge % of it is not actually suitable for residential development. An empty field doesnt necessarily mean X number of houses.

We also need to take into account the infrastructure of the local communities. We may need more houses but what we dont need is building for the sake of it, kids with no outside space, poor public transport, no schools places.

Villa05

Dwarf.Shortage wrote:

But if losing that 4 acres splits their land in two or in some other way compromises and makes much more difficult the running of their farm they need to be compensated for that too.

There have been allowances made for such issues, when driving in the countryside you will often see a tunnel under a road for livestock crossing just as an example. There is a process for resolving these issues

fliball123 wrote:

Ok so does that mean that when your in work and your inefficient like making a personal phone call or playing Tetris or logging onto boards and coming up with ridiculous taxes can the government tax you 100% for this or for any other inefficiencies going on in your life.

Your employer deals with those issues

fliball123 wrote:

Hows about we go through each employee and tax them as per their inefficiencies instead of what they earn? Thats in effect what your doing here with land/property.

How much extra rent or how much extra is an employee paying for their house because of inefficient use of land. A worker is adding value to the economy, idle land is not

We're they not paying increased accommodation costs they could use the money in local services creating more value and sustainable employment

fliball123 wrote:

My argument is your forgetting that someone somewhere had to pay for the land and the cash used to pay would of been subject to them working, hense the money paid to buy the land is after tax money so that's one lot of tax paid, they would of had to stamp duty and VAT on certain land sites. If the person wants to sell they will also have to pay capital gains on any profit made on it. In my opinion the person who owns the land has already contributed regardless of their being an inefficiency there or not. Like I say lets start with your wage and tax you on your inefficiency and see how we go as if the criteria is inefficiency surrender yourself up first for the greater good

Salaries are taxed more than anything else In the country, despite adding value to the economy.

Idle or underutilised land is a drag on the economy. If you don't want to use the land don't buy it then you don't have to pay the vacant site tax

If the land is under utilised its logical and sensible to offer market value plus a premium for that land where there is a much greater need and benefit for wider society