Property Market 2020

cnocbui

JJJackal wrote: »

If we end up with so called helicopter money there will be inflation? If there is inflation house prices will rise

Time will tell

There hasn't been meaningful inflation in the west for over a decade. It's an economic concept that no longer exists, for practical purposes. Helicopter money is never of a sufficient scale to move the needle. Australia did it in 2010 and it got to 3% then was back at 1% 2 years later.

JJJackal

cnocbui wrote: »

There hasn't been meaningful inflation in the west for over a decade. It's an economic concept that no longer exists, for practical purposes. Helicopter money is never of a sufficient scale to move the needle. Australia did it in 2010 and it got to 3% then was back at 1% 2 years later.

The West has not faced a crisis or predicted recession/depression like this in nearly 80 years

cnocbui

JJJackal wrote: »

The West has not faced a crisis or predicted recession/depression like this in nearly 80 years

I didn't think inflation was a characteristic of recessions and depression. I lived through the stagflation of the late 70's.

Unless there is a renaissance in organized labour activisim and a concomitant improvement in the current pattern of wealth distribution, I don't think there will ever be inflation again.

landofthetree

cnocbui wrote: »

I didn't think inflation was a characteristic of recessions and depression. I lived through the stagflation of the late 70's.

Unless there is a renaissance in organized labour activisim and a concomitant improvement in the current pattern of wealth distribution, I don't think there will ever be inflation again.

Inflation is solely down to central banks.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=F94jGTWNWsA

combat14

eagle eye wrote: »

I get that but people are taking houses that off the market. There's around a 5% reduction in houses on the market in the last five days.
If you couple that with the printing of money then things mightn't change much. You'll need to see more houses on the market for prices to come down.

That also depends on how long people are out of work, pay cuts, tax rises, other demand side factors

OttoPilot

JJJackal wrote: »

If we end up with so called helicopter money there will be inflation? If there is inflation house prices will rise

Time will tell

If there is helicopter money, do you really expect that the government will be giving out enough to increase house prices? Property values are primarily driven by availability of credit. Everything will depend on what the banks do. If mortgage lending is restricted, prices will fall. Other areas of the economy may experience inflation instead.

James 007

OttoPilot wrote: »

If there is helicopter money, do you really expect that the government will be giving out enough to increase house prices? Property values are primarily driven by availability of credit. Everything will depend on what the banks do. If mortgage lending is restricted, prices will fall. Other areas of the economy may experience inflation instead.

Its already happening in the UK too from the attached article, squeeze on credit means a drop in house prices:)

Zenify

James 007 wrote: »

Its already happening in the UK too from the attached article, squeeze on credit means a drop in house prices:)

That article could be from 2010 for all we know. Please provide a better source or a link. Something with a date even...

awec

Zenify wrote: »

That article could be from 2010 for all we know. Please provide a better source or a link. Something with a date even...

I am pretty sure it's from around 2009/2010 based on the content of the article. It has quotes from August etc in it.

Assetbacked

combat14 wrote: »

the middle class are already taxed to their eyeballs time to widen the tax net - lots of others not paying any tax in this country

There is no further scope to tax the middle classes and FG have already been destroyed for reneging on their promise to help the middle classes by abolishing the USC. They know they will get burned even more if they go after the working classes. Spending cuts are going to be more likely than taxes on the middle classes. In an ideal world, those with the most money would pay more so greater taxes on large corporations and on the wealth of HNWI. Such a world won't exist for another few decades at the earliest.

Graham

James 007 wrote: »

Its already happening in the UK too from the attached article, squeeze on credit means a drop in house prices:)

Mod Note

Quit the trolling.


For those that haven't spotted the newspaper is from 18th/19th Aug 2008

I want to emphasise the unbroken record of increased production, and we will continue this trend in 2009

Ozark707

eagle eye wrote: »

I get that but people are taking houses that off the market. There's around a 5% reduction in houses on the market in the last five days.
If you couple that with the printing of money then things mightn't change much. You'll need to see more houses on the market for prices to come down.

Prices are set at the margin, so even if there a reduction in supply prices should come down due to the simple fact that credit is tightening.

eagle eye

Ozark707 wrote:

Prices are set at the margin, so even if there a reduction in supply prices should come down due to the simple fact that credit is tightening.

We don't know how eager sellers are. If you get 5% a week taking properties off the market for a couple of weeks what happens?

Diarmuid

cnocbui wrote: »

There hasn't been meaningful inflation in the west for over a decade. It's an economic concept that no longer exists, for practical purposes.

Now that's a quote! Inflation has been around since the Roman times, yet because we haven't had it in a decade, it no longer exists as an economic concept. :pac::pac:

cnocbui

Diarmuid wrote: »

Now that's a quote! Inflation has been around since the Roman times, yet because we haven't had it in a decade, it no longer exists as an economic concept. :pac::pac:

Trust me, I would gladly be proven wrong by events.

Here's a few similar quotes:

Is inflation really dead? - J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Inflation is Dead - Wealth Daily

Economic Insights: Is inflation dead? | Research | JLL

Did Capitalism Kill Inflation? - Bloomberg

Why Inflation Is All But Dead - Kiplinger

Yardeni: Inflation Dead, Equities Can Return 7% Until 2025

Is Inflation Dead? - Foundation for Economic Education

Ozark707

eagle eye wrote: »

We don't know how eager sellers are. If you get 5% a week taking properties off the market for a couple of weeks what happens?

In effect you are suggesting as sellers strike. This of course could happen but I would think it is quite unlikely. Even if supply continues to shrink at the rate you cite there will be some sales and I would contend due to the credit restrictions that it will cause prices to fall.

There have already been quite a number of anecdotes on boards of people securing reductions on already agreed prices, what is going to happen where a price has not already been agreed?

I know of one person in a chain who is happy to reduce his price if the place he wants to buy will do likewise.

combat14

combat14 wrote: »

That also depends on how long people are out of work, pay cuts, tax rises, other demand side factors

This has given people a big shock. Even when this is over and things start to improve we will probably see an increase in savings and paying down debts when people get back to work or employment. The world economy will likely suffer due to that.

awec

Ozark707 wrote: »

In effect you are suggesting as sellers strike. This of course could happen but I would think it is quite unlikely. Even if supply continues to shrink at the rate you cite there will be some sales and I would contend due to the credit restrictions that it will cause prices to fall.

There have already been quite a number of anecdotes on boards of people securing reductions on already agreed prices, what is going to happen where a price has not already been agreed?

I know of one person in a chain who is happy to reduce his price if the place he wants to buy will do likewise.

Credit restrictions, which are certain to happen in the case of a significant downturn, will drop prices irrespective of anything else.

But this doesn't necessary translate to people currently looking for a house finding themselves browsing for the same houses at a lower price. It's the problem with taking the high level picture and trying to apply it to individuals.

People in nice houses in nice areas will, by and large, be the ones who wait it out because they've no real incentive (usually) to offload. They are not afraid of getting stuck in their current place.

Imagine right now you are hypothetically looking to buy a house in say, Ranelagh. Next year houses could be 20% cheaper, but there could be next to no houses for sale in Ranelagh. There could be a glut of cheap houses in say Swords.

Imagine you go ahead an buy the Swords house for 20% less than the house was worth in 2020. Have you played the waiting game an won? Purely financially, yes. Bigger picture, taking into account everything else? Maybe, maybe not.

Zenify

awec wrote: »

Imagine right now you are hypothetically looking to buy a house in say, Ranelagh. Next year houses could be 20% cheaper, but there could be next to no houses for sale in Ranelagh. There could be a glut of cheap houses in say Swords.

We could also see a lot of rentals and AirB&Bs come up for sale in areas like Ranelagh

ittakestwo

The builders will still have to sell. The dead will also lead to sales. The people most likely not to sell are people trading up or down. But in that case, every less seller will equal one less buyer.

It's a calculated risk to take your house off the market now. Should they sell now at a 10% reduction or maybe in 3 years it could be a 40% reduction and might not be back at the 10% reduction level for 6 years. This is what happened in the 2008 recession.

Or maybe things will bounce back next year. Nobody knows.

awec

ittakestwo wrote: »

The builders will still have to sell. The dead will also lead to sales. The people most likely not to sell are people trading up or down. But in that case, every less seller will equal one less buyer.

Sell what?

ittakestwo

awec wrote: »

Sell what?

Go on to myhomes and click new homes, thousands of new builds for sale currently.

The_Conductor

ittakestwo wrote: »

Go on to myhomes and click new homes, thousands of new builds for sale currently.

There are currently (as of right now) 548 new homes for sale on Myhome.ie

Link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/ireland/new-homes/property-for-sale

There are in the region of 7,400 properties in various stages of completion nationwide in addition to this (according to the Construction Industry Federation).

The supply of new property in the immediate pipeline is more constrained than many people realise.

kaymin

The_Conductor wrote: »

There are currently (as of right now) 548 new homes for sale on Myhome.ie

Link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/ireland/new-homes/property-for-sale

There are in the region of 7,400 properties in various stages of completion nationwide in addition to this (according to the Construction Industry Federation).

The supply of new property in the immediate pipeline is more constrained than many people realise.

How many adverts do you think a developer buys to advertise its new development? Not one for every house, that's for sure.

ittakestwo

The_Conductor wrote: »

There are currently (as of right now) 548 new homes for sale on Myhome.ie

Link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/ireland/new-homes/property-for-sale

There are in the region of 7,400 properties in various stages of completion nationwide in addition to this (according to the Construction Industry Federation).

The supply of new property in the immediate pipeline is more constrained than many people realise.

There is 548 developments advertised on myhomes nationwide. One development could be selling over 100 homes.

Hubertj

ittakestwo wrote: »

There is 548 developments advertised on myhomes nationwide. One development could be selling over 100 homes.

So is it 7400 homes in 548 development total?

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

So is it 7400 homes in 548 development total?

Yes- and of the 7,400 units, a little over 20% are rural one off dwellings.

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

So is it 7400 homes in 548 development total?

That would mean only about 13 houses per development on average, would seem low?

The_Conductor

Ozark707 wrote: »

That would mean only about 13 houses per development on average, would seem low?

Many of them will be phased developments with multiple small phases released over time- or possibly multiple 'phases' released concurrently- featuring different dwelling types. Its not as clearcut as it might be.