Property Market 2020

beauf

smurgen wrote: »

Another factor to consider. Australian economy collapse. Due to contract about 10% due to covid 19 and the AUD was already in free fall. Our builders won't be going anywhere this time around and there'll be many returning. I think the skilled labour shortage that helped drive up the cost of building is about to come down.

A lot of building firms and tradesman moved to places which had lots of public projects. It's dubious if govts around the world will put in place the funds to do the same this time.

Diarmuid

cnocbui wrote: »

Trust me, I would gladly be proven wrong by events.

Here's a few similar quotes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines

Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no".

JimmyVik

Deleted User wrote: »

This has given people a big shock. Even when this is over and things start to improve we will probably see an increase in savings and paying down debts when people get back to work or employment. The world economy will likely suffer due to that.

Im still working. My job probably will be ok, but nothing is for sure anymore.


With that in mind I have completely stopped spending.


I was planning on buying maybe next year. That plan is scrapped.
I was trying to move into a new apartment, but that is such a pain at the moment that im scrapping that too.
Going to stay in my parents granny flat for the next year or two now, and save every penny I get to be ready in case I lose my job or there are increases in taxes.


Basically ive spent no money in the last 6 weeks apart from my car loan, which I think i'll pay off completely. And I intend to go at least another year without spending to get a nest egg ready in case loss of job or higher taxes.


Im certain im not the only one with similar thinking.

Cyrus

Whoever built these will struggle, pre covid +2m was a small market, post covid its smaller, and for +2m most will want some decent outside space and something a bit nicer than a generic white box with big windows. If it was by the sea i could just about get on board with the amount of glazing but not where it is, they look ridiculously incongrous, cant believe they got planning.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/30-temple-park-avenue-blackrock-co-dublin/4427504

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

...............


Basically ive spent no money in the last 6 weeks apart from my car loan..........

Food, rent, utility bills, toiletries, mobile phone ?

PokeHerKing

Cyrus wrote: »

Whoever built these will struggle, pre covid +2m was a small market, post covid its smaller, and for +2m most will want some decent outside space and something a bit nicer than a generic white box with big windows. If it was by the sea i could just about get on board with the amount of glazing but not where it is, they look ridiculously incongrous, cant believe they got planning.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/30-temple-park-avenue-blackrock-co-dublin/4427504

Jesus H, that is the most ridiculous price tag I've ever seen Forget the tiger that's some celtic whale prices!

Billythekid19

Do people reckon there will be a drop in the price of new builds from developers? For example I have my eye on this 3 bed semi D new build advertised at 315k, would developers take a bid of say 300k? https://www.daft.ie/cork/houses-for-sale/carrigaline/b1-house-type-janeville-carrigaline-cork-2430975/

Ozark707

Cyrus wrote: »

Whoever built these will struggle, pre covid +2m was a small market, post covid its smaller, and for +2m most will want some decent outside space and something a bit nicer than a generic white box with big windows. If it was by the sea i could just about get on board with the amount of glazing but not where it is, they look ridiculously incongrous, cant believe they got planning.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/30-temple-park-avenue-blackrock-co-dublin/4427504

Well here is some competition now...vendor looks like they have seen that the writing is on the wall...

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/carrig-na-chattan-mornington-avenue-sandycove-co-dublin/4361895

Ozark707

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Do people reckon there will be a drop in the price of new builds from developers? For example I have my eye on this 3 bed semi D new build advertised at 315k, would developers take a bid of say 300k? https://www.daft.ie/cork/houses-for-sale/carrigaline/b1-house-type-janeville-carrigaline-cork-2430975/

Have they been hanging around for a while unsold or have these just been added? If the former then you might have some luck.

eagle eye

Ozark707 wrote:

Well here is some competition now...vendor looks like they have seen that the writing is on the wall...

You might note that it's the second large reduction in the price if that property, the first taking place in October 2019.

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

..........

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/30-temple-park-avenue-blackrock-co-dublin/4427504

"30 Temple Park Avenue are 3 detached very well-appointed and wonderfully positioned family homes"

30 Temple Park Avenue site and whatever was there was sold for € 1,130,000 in Sep 2017.

They've plenty / some wiggle room presumably?

Original add before site was sold for development...... http://ir.speakingsame.com/p.php?q=Blackrock,%20Co.+Dublin&id=524027

Ozark707

eagle eye wrote: »

You might note that it's the second large reduction in the price if that property, the first taking place in October 2019.

Just saw that now, wonder if they had gone immediately to 2m at the time of the first drop would they have managed to offload.

Steer55

Ozark707 wrote: »

Well here is some competition now...vendor looks like they have seen that the writing is on the wall...

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/carrig-na-chattan-mornington-avenue-sandycove-co-dublin/4361895

Gorgeous views

The_Conductor

Augeo wrote: »

Food, rent, utility bills, toiletries, mobile phone ?

Enhanced internet package, weird online shopping, a lot more alcohol than usual, some PPE for your 2km exercise routine, extra money for take-away (because we have to support local businesses........) etc etc

Priorities change. While we cut our cloth to suit our means, most people have had a lifestyle change.

I don't think our outgoings here are a whole lot less than they were pre-lockdown- we're just spending it on different things (having a string of birthdays in the house during the lockdown hasn't helped, admittedly).

I think it is inevitable that we're all going to have to pay more tax to pay for this mess when it all quietens down. I think its going to be a lot more tax- but I also think its going to be a broadening of the tax base- everyone is going to pay- there are a significant cohort out there at the moment who don't earn enough to pay tax, they're not going to get off the hook on this one..........

If/when people have less net income- simple economics determine that they have less to spend- on everything- including rent, mortgages, discretionary purposes etc etc- its just a fact of life.

Ireland is a bit of a funny case- there are lots of crappy zero hour contract jobs here- but there are also lots of well paying IT/Finance type posts- which are very well recompensed. Both cohorts are going to get a shock to their systems. Then the great unwashed middle classes- the public sector and many more- who hadn't recovered from the 2008 crash and were being bled with silly rates of taxation- are just going to have to grit their teeth and accept that its never ending.

The only bright light at the end of the tunnel for many people- is the headlines that the increase in the age at which the contributory old age pension vests- isn't going to increase after all- however, like all current expenditure- we're also going to have to figure how to pay for it.......

The incoming government is going to have to make a lot of very unpalatable decisions that they are not going to be thanked for.

The_Conductor

Cyrus wrote: »

Whoever built these will struggle, pre covid +2m was a small market, post covid its smaller, and for +2m most will want some decent outside space and something a bit nicer than a generic white box with big windows. If it was by the sea i could just about get on board with the amount of glazing but not where it is, they look ridiculously incongrous, cant believe they got planning.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/30-temple-park-avenue-blackrock-co-dublin/4427504

€2,250,000?

Good luck to them- they are very high spec'ed- but while a design like this might (just maybe) work as a one-off- a couple of these together detract from one another. I think its an unusual ask to try and sell these for top dollar- they just don't work as a group development- to say nothing about the completely outrageous price.

Unless you can find a complete D4 head with more money than sense- who *has* to have one- these are not going to shift. Even people who might like to live in Blackrock- won't see the sense in the completely over the top price of these.

The_Conductor

The_Conductor wrote: »

.............

I don't think our outgoings here are a whole lot less than they were pre-lockdown-............

I'm spending maybe €200 less a month on meals out etc, and over €200/month less on diesel.

The_Conductor wrote: »

................

I think it is inevitable that we're all going to have to pay more tax to pay for this mess when it all quietens down. I think its going to be a lot more tax- but I also think its going to be a broadening of the tax base- everyone is going to pay-...............
The incoming government is going to have to make a lot of very unpalatable decisions that they are not going to be thanked for.

It's going to be a strange and tough one to sort out. You've the restaurant association and in time the vintners will be calling for tax and rates breaks/cuts but as you say someone has to pay.

Ozark707

Ozark707 wrote: »

Well here is some competition now...vendor looks like they have seen that the writing is on the wall...

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/carrig-na-chattan-mornington-avenue-sandycove-co-dublin/4361895

ah jaysis!
no privacy whatsoever, one of the busiest spots in Dublin, particularly on a good day.
not surprised they are finding it hard to shift.

Billythekid19

Ozark707 wrote: »

Have they been hanging around for a while unsold or have these just been added? If the former then you might have some luck.

Its a new development of 200 + houses but I dont see how demand will be present at this time. Its Ireland's fastest growing town so there are a hundred other houses for sale at any given time in the area.

The_Conductor

Augeo wrote: »

I'm spending maybe €200 less a month on meals out etc, and over €200/month less on diesel.

It's going to be a strange and tough one to sort out. You've the restaurant association and in time the vintners will be calling for tax and rates breaks/cuts but as you say someone has to pay.

I checked my credit card for January- versus the 30 days up to today.
I spent over 300 Euro on diesel in January- nothing, not a penny, in the last 30 days. I didn't spend anything at all on takeout or socialising in January (having young children means we don't get out very often)- in the last 30 days- we've spent over 250 extra on food than we did in January (not all of it on Takeaways admittedly). Where we are really out of kilter- is online shopping- it shot up from nothing (at all) in January- to over 300 in the last 30 days.

Different people are juggling their finances in different ways.

A refund on car insurance and health insurance- would be really really nice around about now...........

ittakestwo

The_Conductor wrote: »

€2,250,000?

Good luck to them- they are very high spec'ed- but while a design like this might (just maybe) work as a one-off- a couple of these together detract from one another. I think its an unusual ask to try and sell these for top dollar- they just don't work as a group development- to say nothing about the completely outrageous price.

Unless you can find a complete D4 head with more money than sense- who *has* to have one- these are not going to shift. Even people who might like to live in Blackrock- won't see the sense in the completely over the top price of these.

One sitting room and a 23ft back garden. You would expect more for that price. The ground floor layout an oversized version of the standard layout of a house. Front hall with sitting room to left and kitchen to back.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

I'm spending maybe €200 less a month on meals out etc, and over €200/month less on diesel.

our family spending is unchanged, we would have normally eaten out a lot but instead the price of our weekly shop has doubled, also we are saving nearly 2k a month on childcare and are both still working full time, on the flip side my wife is buying all the bits for the house that she never had time to before, so the capital expenditure has gone up :pac:

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

€2,250,000?

Good luck to them- they are very high spec'ed- but while a design like this might (just maybe) work as a one-off- a couple of these together detract from one another. I think its an unusual ask to try and sell these for top dollar- they just don't work as a group development- to say nothing about the completely outrageous price.

Unless you can find a complete D4 head with more money than sense- who *has* to have one- these are not going to shift. Even people who might like to live in Blackrock- won't see the sense in the completely over the top price of these.

Yep agree with you. They might be ok if they were once off but 3 look out of place in the area. Also such a small back garden is ridiculous....

Villa05

Billythekid19 wrote:

Do people reckon there will be a drop in the price of new builds from developers? For example I have my eye on this 3 bed semi D new build advertised at 315k, would developers take a bid of say 300k?

Bid too high, if banks are reducing loan offers by 10%, you need to be doing at a minimum the same. If you feel uncomfortable about doing that, get friend/family to do it and be patient, use a stalled market to your advantage

Has the asking price reduced?

The_Conductor wrote:

The only bright light at the end of the tunnel for many people- is the headlines that the increase in the age at which the contributory old age pension vests- isn't going to increase after all- however, like all current expenditure- we're also going to have to figure how to pay for it.......

Not really a bright light, Gov need to be looking at ways of transitioning from work to retirement, reduced hours job sharing All voluntary of course, most retirees don't like the big bang transition from 39hrs to zero
Political posturing again

Sorry off topic, but no harm in reminding politicians exacerbate rather than solve problems

Billythekid19

Villa05 wrote: »

Bid too high, if banks are reducing loan offers by 10%, you need to be doing at a minimum the same. If you feel uncomfortable about doing that, get friend/family to do it and be patient, use a stalled market to your advantage

Has the asking price reduced?




Nope no change in the asking price. I guess they cant publicly drop it because people have already paid the advised market rate for the 100 odd houses already sold in the development.

awec

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Nope no change in the asking price. I guess they cant publicly drop it because people have already paid the advised market rate for the 100 odd houses already sold in the development.

Just ask if they’ll take the 300k. They’ll probably say no (still very early days), but no harm in trying.

If you’re going to threaten to walk away if they don’t accept it then you’ll have to follow through unless you want to look like an idiot.

Padre_Pio

awec wrote: »

Just ask if they’ll take the 300k. They’ll probably say no (still very early days), but no harm in trying.

If you’re going to threaten to walk away if they don’t accept it then you’ll have to follow through unless you want to look like an idiot.

Who cares if you look like an idiot?

guyfawkes5

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Who cares if you look like an idiot?

Exactly - are you going to meet the vendor and the EA down at your local?

awec

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Who cares if you look like an idiot?

I would think it's the preference of the majority not to come across as a total clown in interactions with others.

If you act like an idiot you'll be treated as an idiot. No point playing hardball if you won't walk away.

If you're happy to walk away if you don't get what you want, then work away.

Definitely go and offer the 300 price, no harm in trying.

JimmyVik

Augeo wrote: »

Food, rent, utility bills, toiletries, mobile phone ?

Ok, I dont actually spend zero. you know what I mean, but ive pared back all spending to the bone.

I give my parents €500pm and includes food, rent, utility bills.

Mobile Phone is €10PM. And I have Netflix.

Then of course car tax, petrol and insurance.
That was all paid in January. Havent bought petrol since Feb.

Spending has dropped through the floor for me.
It might increase after lockdown, but I am really concerned about putting away money now in case of job loss or tax increases.

No holidays this year either, or next year probably. A trip to the cinema would feel like a holiday now.

I had just started a pension this year. Is it going to be robbed too? I will stop that too, now that I think about it.


I can safely say, all of my spending is going to be a lot less than €1000pm going forward. Thats down from maybe €2500pm last year.

Im certainly not the only one going to be closing up the hatches,

Padre_Pio

awec wrote: »

I would think it's the preference of the majority not to come across as a total clown in interactions with others.

If you act like an idiot you'll be treated as an idiot. No point playing hardball if you won't walk away.

If you're happy to walk away if you don't get what you want, then work away.

Definitely go and offer the 300 price, no harm in trying.

Nah, not at all. Best case youll save money. Worst case some lad youll never meet thinks your a idiot?