Property Market 2020

eagle eye

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Looking for opinions here.

Went sale agreed on a house just before lockdown. No other bidders AFAIK, just me and the seller. They had a price in mind that was at the top of what I thought the property was worth, but we agreed anyways.

8 weeks later, things are looking bleak with respect to the economy and property. I asked the seller to wait until June before proceeding, just until things settle down but they refused.

Gut tells me to pull out of sale, property will probably still be there in a few months anyways. What do people here think?

I just signed contracts today, was in the same situation as yourself as regards having agreed before the lockdown and they wanted changes as they want to stay in the house for another eight weeks so I could have walked away with my deposit returned and no issues.
I was in a slightly different situation to you in that I got the house 15k lower than their minimum request by putting in a bid with 24 hours for them to make up their mind or lose the bid. My valuation of the house was 35k higher than their minimum price and 50k higher than I agreed to buy it.
This house is our forever home.
I note that you say you feel you were paying the maximum price for the house. In that scenario I'd be willing to offer a lower amount and see if you can get something off.
Is this your forever home, are there similar houses that would suffice if this one got pulled off the market?
Is the owner desperate to sell or do you think he can wait out any downturn and pull the house from the market.

There's over 2k less houses on the market right now but that doesn't necessarily mean that people are pulling properties from the market. It might be a case in many cases where the listing has ran out and they see no need to put them back up right now as there will be no viewings.

In the last couple of years 60% of buyers having been cash buyers, that number was 62% last year. They will have a lot of say in what happens to the market when we get back up and running. If a lot of people decide to hold back then there might not be much of a fall.

We are in a desperate situation at the moment and I'd put off the purchase as long as I can if you are willing to take the risk that it could be pulled. If you intend for it to be your forever home then as far as the house value goes it will likely recover it's price in a couple of years so you won't lose out long term. You might still pay more now though so you have to weight that and make the decision that best suits you.

Best of luck with your decision. If I didn't have a family I think I would have pulled out but I do and I want this house for them. I know my family, and hopefully me, will still be there in twenty years time so it wasn't too difficult for me to make the decision in the end. I had a good think about pulling out but with my valuation of the house, how much my wife loves it and the fact that it's our forever home it wasn't difficult for me to stay in and purchase.

eagle eye

schmittel wrote: »

I have been arguing that demand is coming down. Viewings down 100%.

Good luck anyone selling to the pool of buyers which number zero.

schmittel wrote: »

I was replying to a post arguing that supply was down because there were 400 less properties on myhome since last Friday.

I presume you did not start the purchasing process since last Friday, and clearly neither did your sister.

You clearly said the pool of buyers was zero. I took issue with that because in my family there are two people buying. I went sale agreed in February and went through discussions two weeks ago and have decided to continue on with the purchase. My sister went sale agree on her house six weeks ago and it's expected to be completed next week. She viewed a house, it's empty, two weeks ago and went sale agreed last Friday.
That's just my family. I also have an acquaintance who has went sale agreed in the last two weeks. So that's three people in a fairly small circle in the market and buying houses at the current time.

Are you now backtracking and saying that you were wrong about there being zero buyers in the market?

hometruths

eagle eye wrote: »

You clearly said the pool of buyers was zero. I took issue with that because in my family there are two people buying. I went sale agreed in February and went through discussions two weeks ago and have decided to continue on with the purchase. My sister went sale agree on her house six weeks ago and it's expected to be completed next week. She viewed a house, it's empty, two weeks ago and went sale agreed last Friday.
That's just my family. I also have an acquaintance who has went sale agreed in the last two weeks. So that's three people in a fairly small circle in the market and buying houses at the current time.

Are you now backtracking and saying that you were wrong about there being zero buyers in the market?

I think the point I was trying to make went over your head, let it go, it is not important.

JimmyVik

eagle eye wrote: »

You clearly said the pool of buyers was zero. I took issue with that because in my family there are two people buying. I went sale agreed in February and went through discussions two weeks ago and have decided to continue on with the purchase. My sister went sale agree on her house six weeks ago and it's expected to be completed next week. She viewed a house, it's empty, two weeks ago and went sale agreed last Friday.
That's just my family. I also have an acquaintance who has went sale agreed in the last two weeks. So that's three people in a fairly small circle in the market and buying houses at the current time.

Are you now backtracking and saying that you were wrong about there being zero buyers in the market?

I dont think they literally meant zero buyers.
But I would imagine there are a very, very low number of buyers compared to normal times.

Also while people might be completing sales they had already been almost complete, I doubt anything new will be starting at the moment.

Hubertj

pearcider wrote: »

Go with your gut. We are heading for steep falls in property prices. At least back to 2012 inflation adjusted. Unemployment was 16% in 2012. We have already hit 16.5% and the central bank is predicting 25% in Q2. Madness to buy now.

so you are predicting about an 80% decline in prices? You pop in here every few days with some nuggets but this has to be the biggest LIE to date.

Anyone coming in here to get advise on buying or selling property shouldn't be buying property in the first place.

pearcider

Hubertj wrote: »

so you are predicting about an 80% decline in prices? You pop in here every few days with some nuggets but this has to be the biggest LIE to date.

Anyone coming in here to get advise on buying or selling property shouldn't be buying property in the first place.

It’s about 35-40 percent decline once you adjust for inflation. That’s being optimistic unless you think the unemployment projections are significantly wide of the mark. As for people coming here to get advice, that’s kind of the point of the thread.

Hubertj

pearcider wrote: »

It’s about 35-40 percent decline once you adjust for inflation. That’s being optimistic unless you think the unemployment projections are significantly wide of the mark. As for people coming here to get advice, that’s kind of the point of the thread.

People shouldn’t be taking advise from random punter on the internet. Worst of al people like you that spout a few numbers to make yourself sound credible. Waffling on about your bear crap to suit your own agenda.

I don’t care what way the market goes but I’d be concerned someone might actually listen to you instead of taking professional advice.

mcbert

pearcider wrote: »

As for people coming here to get advice, that’s kind of the point of the thread.

I always thought of this particular thread as more like pub banter than real advice...

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed, but I take it you saw the statement I was replying to?

Yep, I think they were both simplistic

Zenify

Hubertj wrote: »

People shouldn’t be taking advise from random punter on the internet. Worst of al people like you that spout a few numbers to make yourself sound credible. Waffling on about your bear crap to suit your own agenda.

I don’t care what way the market goes but I’d be concerned someone might actually listen to you instead of taking professional advice.

I was going to write a post very similar to that about some of yours.

Hubertj

mcbert wrote: »

I always thought of this particular thread as more like pub banter than real advice...

That’s the way it should be but there’s always a few...

GreeBo

mcbert wrote: »

I always thought of this particular thread as more like pub banter than real advice...

It is, the problem is that some people popped in for one after work but others appear to have been drinking all day...

eagle eye

schmittel wrote:

I think the point I was trying to make went over your head, let it go, it is not important.

You say there were zero buyers in the market. You were wrong.

Hubertj

Zenify wrote: »

I was going to write a post very similar to that about some of yours.

Show me a post where I have given advice on property? You won’t find any as I don’t know much about the subject like everyone in here. There are plenty that make stuff up to suit their own agenda or make themselves sound important. If someone really had good knowledge of the property market do you think they would waste their time in here?

dubstepper

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Went sale agreed on a house just before lockdown. No other bidders AFAIK, just me and the seller. They had a price in mind that was at the top of what I thought the property was worth, but we agreed anyways.

8 weeks later, things are looking bleak with respect to the economy and property. I asked the seller to wait until June before proceeding, just until things settle down but they refused.

Unless you are in love the house and it hits every single item on your list I would pull. The reason they don't want to give you leeway is exactly the reason you want it. They are worried the market will fall significantly.

Marius34

pearcider wrote: »

Go with your gut. We are heading for steep falls in property prices. At least back to 2012 inflation adjusted. Unemployment was 16% in 2012. We have already hit 16.5% and the central bank is predicting 25% in Q2. Madness to buy now.

pearcider wrote: »

It’s about 35-40 percent decline once you adjust for inflation. That’s being optimistic unless you think the unemployment projections are significantly wide of the mark. As for people coming here to get advice, that’s kind of the point of the thread.

As you are here to provide some information, and bring your advice. Just to bring more balance, so audience can have better idea of those unemployment predictions. I see you using Central Bank as trustable source.
Would you mind to give more details what is Central Bank prediction for the rest of the year? What this 25% unemployment means, is it Permanent or Temporal, any idea if people with Covid-19 wage subsidy schema are counted as unemployed?

eagle eye

JimmyVik wrote:

Also while people might be completing sales they had already been almost complete, I doubt anything new will be starting at the moment.

So my sister and another person I know don't count? They both went sale agreed in the last two weeks.

combat14

Big hints given that Covid payments are to be cut/reduced shortly .. very hard for renters to keep paying inflated rents at the moment when that happens....


Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe has said rebuilding Ireland's economy after the COVID-19 pandemic will take time and "involve choices".

"We cannot sustain this indefinitely - these are interventions that are costing between €200m and €400m per week."

https://www.newstalk.com/news/donohoe-rebuilding-economy-covid-19-will-involve-choices-1008239

megabomberman

eagle eye wrote: »

So my sister and another person I know don't count? They both went sale agreed in the last two weeks.

The point you are refuting wasn't a serious point.

The first poster said (paraphrasing) 'listings are drying up, this is evidence that supply is dwindling'

The second poster countering the conclusion arrived at by the first poster essentially stated (again paraphrasing) 'there are no viewings (because it is illegal), therefore there is no demand.'

You are arguing that it is not true that there are literally zero buyers, because you have anecdotal evidence to the contrary.

eagle eye

pearcider wrote:

It’s about 35-40 percent decline once you adjust for inflation. That’s being optimistic unless you think the unemployment projections are significantly wide of the mark. As for people coming here to get advice, that’s kind of the point of the thread.

When 60% of houses having been purchased by cash buyers over the last few years where are all these houses coming from to glut the market and cause panic sales?

addaword

eagle eye wrote: »

When 60% of houses having been purchased by cash buyers over the last few years where are all these houses coming from to glut the market and cause panic sales?

Give it time, there will unfortunately be plenty of sales of properties of deceased and unemployed people. The price of property can only drop.

Brussels Sprout

Will the average house really drop in value? A lot of sectors of the economy will likely weather this and the peopel who work in those areas purchasing power won't be affected:

• Pharma, BioPharma, BioMedical - largely unaffected
• IT - one of the most suited areas for working from home
• Public Sector - immune to losing jobs and a weak government is unlikely to cut salaries
• Doctors, Pharmacists, Solicitors - business as usual for a lot of them

People working for small & medium companies look to be the most in trouble. What percentage of house buyers are made up by this sector? Will it be enough to cause prices to fall given how much pent up demand there is?

hometruths

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Will the average house really drop in value? A lot of sectors of the economy will likely weather this and the peopel who work in those areas purchasing power won't be affected:

• Pharma, BioPharma, BioMedical - largely unaffected
• IT - one of the most suited areas for working from home
• Public Sector - immune to losing jobs and a weak government is unlikely to cut salaries
• Doctors, Pharmacists, Solicitors - business as usual for a lot of them

People working for small & medium companies look to be the most in trouble. What percentage of house buyers are made up by this sector? Will it be enough to cause prices to fall given how much pent up demand there is?

FTBers drive the market and it would seem logical that this sectors purchasing power will be most affected.

If the bulk of the areas you list are made up of trader uppers then without FTBers entering the market below them, they will have little upward impact on prices.

Brussels Sprout

schmittel wrote: »

FTBers drive the market and it would seem logical that this sectors purchasing power will be most affected.

If the bulk of the areas you list are made up of trader uppers then without FTBers entering the market below them, they will have little upward impact on prices.

Why would the sectors I mentioned not be FTBers? The public sector alone covers a huge section of society.

Padre_Pio

fliball123 wrote: »

Just on a different topic I have been arguing supply side is coming down. Myhome is down 400 properties since last Friday. Good luck anyone buying the pool of properties out there was p1$$ poor to begin with and its getting smaller by the day

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Will the average house really drop in value? A lot of sectors of the economy will likely weather this and the peopel who work in those areas purchasing power won't be affected:

• Pharma, BioPharma, BioMedical - largely unaffected
• IT - one of the most suited areas for working from home
• Public Sector - immune to losing jobs and a weak government is unlikely to cut salaries
• Doctors, Pharmacists, Solicitors - business as usual for a lot of them

People working for small & medium companies look to be the most in trouble. What percentage of house buyers are made up by this sector? Will it be enough to cause prices to fall given how much pent up demand there is?

Fig 2.2 in this link is a breakdown of the top professions in Ireland: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp11eoi/cp11eoi/ioscs/

Retail and service workers is no.1. Other professions in the list are retail managers, cleaners, chefs and catering staff, carers, childcare workers.

There will be far more people affected by Covid 19 restrictions that the engineers, pharmacists and IT workers you listed.

outland1985

I was in the process of selling my home before c19 had 2 low-ball offers and refused them. I'm in no rush to sell but ideally I would like to sell with next 12 months , I know no one has a crystal ball but does anyone think the market will start moving again in the next year. I know prices will probably fall but I don't mind cause I will be buying anyway hopefully cheaper than previously thought. Just hope the market isn't stagnant for years

cunnifferous

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Why would the sectors I mentioned not be FTBers? The public sector alone covers a huge section of society.

Below 15% of the workforce is public sector. So I wouldn't call it a huge section of society.

As much as people like to give out about our 'bloated' public sector it's actually quite a small proportion of the workforce compared to other OECD countries.

Anyway off topic so I'll leave it there.

hometruths

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Why would the sectors I mentioned not be FTBers? The public sector alone covers a huge section of society.

Fair enough, I guess it is possible that the bulk of the FTBers are drawn from the sectors you mention, and thus the average price of a house will not fall.

Maitguel

Another property I was watching sold at auction today at 290k or 100k over the initial reserve. Property is nice but needed a lot of work.

The daft ad is down now but it was located in Co. Limerick and a DNG auction today. Property was a detached house on an acre of land but needed a serious refurb

Brussels Sprout

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Fig 2.2 in this link is a breakdown of the top professions in Ireland: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp11eoi/cp11eoi/ioscs/

Retail and service workers is no.1. Other professions in the list are retail managers, cleaners, chefs and catering staff, carers, childcare workers.

There will be far more people affected by Covid 19 restrictions that the engineers, pharmacists and IT workers you listed.

Even before Covid-19, the highlighted people would have struggled to afford the average house given how difficult that has been in recent years for most people.

The people who would previously have been bidding for the 250k+ house - how many of them will be affected?