Property Market 2020

skooterblue2

addaword wrote: »

I see Ryanair are letting 3000 people go. With the best part of a million people now finding themselves without work, it will make the crash of 2008 look like a picnic.

I know I have been keeping my powder dry and looking forward to the second crash in October. Its going to be like shooting fish in a barrel.

stinger31

skooterblue2 wrote: »

I know I have been keeping my powder dry and looking forward to the second crash in October. Its going to be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Whats happening in Oct?

JJJackal

I think in the next 12-18 months the only people selling will be those who have to.

I think you can always get a better deal if the seller needs to sell

Eric Cartman

Umaro wrote: »

Have to agree with the other responses to this.

Cash buyers hold all the cards in a situation like this. They'll be in no rush to prop up the market seeing as they can afford to wait for the drops and then make their move. As banks tighten lending restrictions it'll push some mortgage seekers out of the market for a while and the pool of buyers will get smaller, which gives cash buyers a lot more power.

you don't even need credit tightening. There'll be some people coming out of this with 6 month earning gaps and only new employment contracts that won't be mortgage ready for another 2 years, theres a huge falloff in people who are even eligible to talk to a bank coming on stream. You'll only be competing with cash buyers and dual income professional couples who kept working through the entire thing and didn't burn their savings. A much much smaller pool for a larger pool of properties with a lot of elderly people having clocked out. You've seen the nursing home infection rates.

My own grandmother was on a 'fair deal' scheme and died a month ago, the HSE are already asking when their pound of flesh is coming, there is going to be a lot of homes for sale to pay them off.

Cyrus

skooterblue2 wrote: »

I know I have been keeping my powder dry and looking forward to the second crash in October. Its going to be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Go on tell us what exactly you are going to do ?

eagle eye

Umaro wrote:

Have to agree with the other responses to this.

Cash buyers hold all the cards in a situation like this. They'll be in no rush to prop up the market seeing as they can afford to wait for the drops and then make their move. As banks tighten lending restrictions it'll push some mortgage seekers out of the market for a while and the pool of buyers will get smaller, which gives cash buyers a lot more power.

That's one side of it but the other side is that with so many cash buyers owning property they are in no panic to sell.
This crisis will be different than those from before, banks know that it'll cost a fortune to get a defaulter out of the house. They'll be more interested in giving them time to get back on their feet without major penalties.
On top of that we don't have enough houses in this country.
When you add it all up I am seeing a lower number of houses for sale and less houses certainly doesn't equate to a massive drop in prices.

Hubertj

Cyrus wrote: »

Go on tell us what exactly you are going to do ?

I think he is referring to Coppers Halloween party.

PommieBast

eagle eye wrote: »

When you add it all up I am seeing a lower number of houses for sale and less houses certainly doesn't equate to a massive drop in prices.

If it is only the dregs left on the market, then I think a massive head-line drop is a real possibility.

JJJackal

PommieBast wrote: »

If it is only the dregs left on the market, then I think a massive head-line drop is a real possibility.

I think you are right!

James 007

JJJackal wrote: »

I think in the next 12-18 months the only people selling will be those who have to.

I think you can always get a better deal if the seller needs to sell

Those that only have to sell will probably be limited. Perhaps those that have BTLs, any home owners wont have to sell even if they loose their jobs, its already been said, crash of 2008, initially some people sold, while a lot of people held onto their homes

Ozark707

Eric Cartman wrote: »

you don't even need credit tightening. There'll be some people coming out of this with 6 month earning gaps and only new employment contracts that won't be mortgage ready for another 2 years, theres a huge falloff in people who are even eligible to talk to a bank coming on stream. You'll only be competing with cash buyers and dual income professional couples who kept working through the entire thing and didn't burn their savings. A much much smaller pool for a larger pool of properties with a lot of elderly people having clocked out. You've seen the nursing home infection rates.

My own grandmother was on a 'fair deal' scheme and died a month ago, the HSE are already asking when their pound of flesh is coming, there is going to be a lot of homes for sale to pay them off.

How is that supposed to work? Is there a timeframe upon which they expect you to pay up or is it enough to show the house is on the market?

Eric Cartman

Ozark707 wrote: »

How is that supposed to work? Is there a timeframe upon which they expect you to pay up or is it enough to show the house is on the market?

tbh my parents are dealing with it so I'm not entirely sure but they basically send a letter just asking can you pay now or are you going to sell it and to contact them for further advice (probably to just send a valuer out to confirm how big their pound is) they're not strong arming but I think its more to let the executor handle it and see if theres enough in the estate to pay them or do they have to put the house up. Its like a long lost sibling coming back to claim their inheritance. In this case I severely suspect the house will have to be sold as soon as probate and all that jazz is done with, just to keep the HSE happy.

hometruths

PommieBast wrote: »

If it is only the dregs left on the market, then I think a massive head-line drop is a real possibility.

What do you mean by a massive head-line drop? (as opposed to just a massive drop) do you have a % in mind?

Donald Trump

awec wrote: »

A cash buyer is a buyer who is entirely self financed. No banks or third party lenders involved.

Cash buyers are the ones who can safely wait it out to an extent as they are immune from any tightening of lending criteria by banks. The only risk to cash buyers is inflation (aside from the usual risk of no longer finding houses in the location or at the standard they want if they wait).

I was asking that other poster about their definition of a cash buyer. Because they were talking about cash buyers not needing to sell houses and being able to sit on them.



To me a cash buyer is the person with the cash sitting there on deposit when they do the deal. However they got that cash is irrelevant - savings/sale of investment/loan from family/loan from a bank.

James 007

PommieBast wrote: »

If it is only the dregs left on the market, then I think a massive head-line drop is a real possibility.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/135-corrib-road-terenure-dublin-2384005/#img=1

Is this a dreg :rolleyes:

Donald Trump

eagle eye wrote: »

That's one side of it but the other side is that with so many cash buyers owning property they are in no panic to sell.
This crisis will be different than those from before, banks know that it'll cost a fortune to get a defaulter out of the house. They'll be more interested in giving them time to get back on their feet without major penalties.
On top of that we don't have enough houses in this country.
When you add it all up I am seeing a lower number of houses for sale and less houses certainly doesn't equate to a massive drop in prices.

Some investment people may be a bit more savvy. If I had a portfolio of 10 houses and I strongly believed that prices have dropped 10%, but that they would drop, for example, another 20% in 2 years time, I might happily cash out (some of those) those investments now with a view to getting back into the market in 2 years time.



I was valuing the property at 2m in Jan. I can "firesale" the 10 properties now for 1.8m. In two years I intend to by 12 similar properties for 1.7m

JJJackal

JJJackal wrote: »

I think in the next 12-18 months the only people selling will be those who have to.

I think you can always get a better deal if the seller needs to sell

And do you believe those sellers will be expecting early 2020 prices in 18 months time?

Eric Cartman

Deleted User wrote: »

And do you believe those sellers will be expecting early 2020 prices in 18 months time?

they'll certainly ask.

eagle eye

James 007 wrote:

Those that only have to sell will probably be limited. Perhaps those that have BTLs, any home owners wont have to sell even if they loose their jobs, its already been said, crash of 2008, initially some people sold, while a lot of people held onto their homes

There was a huge difference in 2008, the banks collapsed, there were lots of new houses with nobody in them. Nobody was prepared for things turning sour and most were in big trouble financially.
This time around there are lots unemployed but that'll change quickly. The banks are not on the verge of bankruptcy. Nobody is in as bad of shape financially as people were then. We're heading for another period of austerity to rectify things. It's not going to be easy but I think a lot more people are prepared for something like this.

eagle eye

James 007 wrote:

Those that only have to sell will probably be limited. Perhaps those that have BTLs, any home owners wont have to sell even if they loose their jobs, its already been said, crash of 2008, initially some people sold, while a lot of people held onto their homes

There was a huge difference in 2008, the banks collapsed, there were lots of new houses with nobody in them. Nobody was prepared for things turning sour and most were in big trouble financially.
This time around there are lots unemployed but that'll change quickly. The banks are not on the verge of bankruptcy. Nobody is in as bad of shape financially as people were then. We're heading for another period of austerity to rectify things. It's not going to be easy but I think a lot more people are prepared for something like this.

Ozark707

eagle eye wrote: »

The banks are not on the verge of bankruptcy. Nobody is in as bad of shape financially as people were then. We're heading for another period of austerity to rectify things.

Any yet this austerity won't impact house prices?

Eric Cartman

Ozark707 wrote: »

Any yet this austerity won't impact house prices?

if the LPT or income tax were reduced it may go up .

combat14

eagle eye wrote: »

This time around there are lots unemployed but that'll change quickly. The banks are not on the verge of bankruptcy. Nobody is in as bad of shape financially as people were then. We're heading for another period of austerity to rectify things. It's not going to be easy but I think a lot more people are prepared for something like this.

Define quickly?

How many people are prepared for a down turn / recession like this ?

Deub

eagle eye wrote: »

There was a huge difference in 2008, the banks collapsed, there were lots of new houses with nobody in them. Nobody was prepared for things turning sour and most were in big trouble financially.
This time around there are lots unemployed but that'll change quickly. The banks are not on the verge of bankruptcy. Nobody is in as bad of shape financially as people were then. We're heading for another period of austerity to rectify things. It's not going to be easy but I think a lot more people are prepared for something like this.

The european banks are not in the best shape. Just compare the share price of EU banks to US banks and you will see that something is not right.

Cyrus

James 007 wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/135-corrib-road-terenure-dublin-2384005/#img=1

Is this a dreg :rolleyes:

It certainly looks like one

hometruths

eagle eye wrote: »

That's one side of it but the other side is that with so many cash buyers owning property they are in no panic to sell.
This crisis will be different than those from before, banks know that it'll cost a fortune to get a defaulter out of the house. They'll be more interested in giving them time to get back on their feet without major penalties.
On top of that we don't have enough houses in this country.
When you add it all up I am seeing a lower number of houses for sale and less houses certainly doesn't equate to a massive drop in prices.

eagle eye wrote: »

There was a huge difference in 2008, the banks collapsed, there were lots of new houses with nobody in them. Nobody was prepared for things turning sour and most were in big trouble financially.
This time around there are lots unemployed but that'll change quickly. The banks are not on the verge of bankruptcy. Nobody is in as bad of shape financially as people were then. We're heading for another period of austerity to rectify things. It's not going to be easy but I think a lot more people are prepared for something like this.

Last time around when somebody had the temerity to suggest house prices might fall they were told house prices would not fall, because "Ireland is different" - the fundamentals that had caused prices to crash in other countries did not apply the same here.

This time we are not told Ireland is different, but this "crisis will be different than those from before"; a different sort of recession as it were, one that causes a massive spike in unemployment, slashes income and corporate tax receipts, decimates the tourism and hospitality industries.

But will have a very minor impact on house prices apparently.

Feels very samey to me and I'm no more convinced this time around than I was in 2008.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Last time around when somebody had the temerity to suggest house prices might fall they were told house prices would not fall, because "Ireland is different" - the fundamentals that had caused prices to crash in other countries did not apply the same here.

This time we are not told Ireland is different, but this "crisis will be different than those from before"; a different sort of recession as it were, one that causes a massive spike in unemployment, slashes income and corporate tax receipts, decimates the tourism and hospitality industries.

But will have a very minor impact on house prices apparently.

Feels very samey to me and I'm no more convinced this time around than I was in 2008.

Could the difference this time be that price reductions bottom out faster? I believe last it took 3-4 years for the market to level out?

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

Could the difference this time be that price reductions bottom out faster? I believe last it took 3-4 years for the market to level out?

Yes about 4 years

PommieBast

schmittel wrote: »

What do you mean by a massive head-line drop? (as opposed to just a massive drop) do you have a % in mind?

I was implying a drop of maybe 30-40% that is distorted by a high proportion of sub-prime properties. Assuming some decent places actually stay on the market I am expecting a drop of only 5-15%

James 007 wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/135-corrib-road-terenure-dublin-2384005/#img=1

Is this a dreg

Very suspect due to no external pictures of the flat-roof extension. €350k tops.

landofthetree

landofthetree wrote: »

2020 Budget deficit €23 billion
220,000 net jobs will be lost this year, and it’ll take until 2022 to get back to where Ireland was pre-crisis.

Unemployment will stand at 13.9% at the end of the year.

The State will not only run a deficit of €23bn this year… but close to €14bn *next* year too.

This will be the deepest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, says the Dept of Finance's chief economist.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1252597960657055745

I can't see how prices aren't going to fall significantly given all the above.

SozBbz wrote: »

The above is not a given. You've provided no basis for your assertions save a link to Gavin Reillys twitter.

Of course its bad but its not a true economic recession. We don't know how things are going to pan out. It's not a foregone conclusion that it will be as bad as you've described.

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the numbers are as per the Dept of Finance today. However, this poster is just 1 long streak of misery if you look at what he posts. Must be still sore from the last recession and feeling sorry for himself.

I would look at the positives in that we will be making progress again through 2021 and into 2022.

Miserable people will focus on the negatives and not accomplish anything.

So the DOF are now saying they will need to borrow 30billion according to tomorrows Irish examiner.

http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ie050520page1-scaled.jpg