Property Market 2020

Hubertj

landofthetree wrote: »

So the DOF are now saying they will need to borrow 30billion according to tomorrows Irish examiner.

http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ie050520page1-scaled.jpg

So what’s your point? All you’re doing is confirming that you are a miserable person. I do pity you.

Finances are a mess obviously. Doesn’t take a genius to work that out. Not sure what your point is anyway.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Last time around when somebody had the temerity to suggest house prices might fall they were told house prices would not fall, because "Ireland is different" - the fundamentals that had caused prices to crash in other countries did not apply the same here.

This time we are not told Ireland is different, but this "crisis will be different than those from before"; a different sort of recession as it were, one that causes a massive spike in unemployment, slashes income and corporate tax receipts, decimates the tourism and hospitality industries.

But will have a very minor impact on house prices apparently.

Feels very samey to me and I'm no more convinced this time around than I was in 2008.

This is made up story. I was well involved in Property discussions back than, in opposite, many saw Irish construction sector may be hit harder than in other countries, due to massive construction boom.

landofthetree

Hubertj wrote: »

So what’s your point? All you’re doing is confirming that you are a miserable person. I do pity you.

Finances are a mess obviously. Doesn’t take a genius to work that out. Not sure what your point is anyway.

In March they were predicting a deficit of €12.7billion.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1243114876588961798

Now its up to €30billion.


This is a thread about property prices and obviously the state of the economy impacts that.

landofthetree

Marius34 wrote: »

This is made up story. I was well involved in Property discussions back than, in opposite, many saw Irish construction sector may be hit harder than in other countries, due to massive construction boom.

"International comparisons bear out these forecasts. Until now, many Irish people have clung to the myth of what I call ‘Dunnes Stores economics’. You know it: it is the school that suggests ‘‘the difference is we’re Irish’’. Well, the bad news is that being Irish makes no difference at all. It offers no protection. What happened to the Japanese will happen here and, in terms of the recovery, the sooner the better."
David Mcwilliams 2009.

https://thepropertypin.com/t/david-mcwilliams-house-prices-likely-to-fall-by-another-50/20176

Hubertj

landofthetree wrote: »

In March they were predicting a deficit of €12.7billion.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1243114876588961798

Now its up to €30billion.


This is a thread about property prices and obviously the state of the economy impacts that.

And have you anything to add yourself? Any opinions or suggestions? Or just more misery misery misery?

landofthetree

Hubertj wrote: »

And have you anything to add yourself? Any opinions or suggestions? Or just more misery misery misery?

Ive made my suggestions on the economy in the FG thread,


My opinion on the housing market is prices will fall 40% over the next 12 months. I can see house building coming to a standstill. Mortgages will be very hard to get.

Hubertj

landofthetree wrote: »

Ive made my suggestions on the economy in the FG thread,


My opinion on the housing market is prices will fall 40% over the next 12 months. I can see house building coming to a standstill. Mortgages will be very hard to get.

Why 40% and not 20% or 60%? Is it that 40% is just about misery enough for you?

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

This is made up story. I was well involved in Property discussions back than, in opposite, many saw Irish construction sector may be hit harder than in other countries, due to massive construction boom.

It is far from a made up story. People obviously have short memories.

In April 2007 RTE aired a programme called Future Shock: Property Crash by Richard Curran of SBP outlining the dangers facing Irish market based on studies of crashes in other countries.

His programme, and anyone on it who dared to speak against the narrative of rising prices was condemned from Bertie down.

Clíodhna O'Donoghue, Property Editor, Irish Independent wrote a piece that was reflective of the mood:

John FitzGerald (ESRI economist) stated that if he believed there was a crash coming that he would sell his house and rent it back. Tellingly he is not doing so because he believes, as I do, that if (and that is a big 'if') the market is going to crash it will do so in a patchy, selective way which will not impact to any great degree on many of the existing homes in Ireland.

The next day CBRE issued a lengthy press release to rubbish the programme, including this analysis from Marie Hunt, Director of Research:

The property market is in simple terms a sub-set of economic activity and the fundamentals that have been driving the Irish housing market for many years now are completely unique and cannot be compared to other economies.

No other country can boast the levels of economic growth that have been witnessed in Ireland in the last decade; no other country has generated the level of employment generation that Ireland has seen; no other country has seen the phenomenal population growth and levels of immigration that Ireland has witnessed and no other economy can match the decline in the average household size that has materialised in Ireland in recent years. It is simply technically incorrect to assume that that Irish house prices will decline significantly simply on the basis that this has occurred in other economies where the fundamentals were so different. It is also irresponsible to suggest that the ‘negative equity’ scenario that occurred in the late 1980’s in the UK could occur in Ireland...

Ireland is different was the whole basis the argument for the soft landing was built on.

pearcider

Hubertj wrote: »

And have you anything to add yourself? Any opinions or suggestions? Or just more misery misery misery?

It is quite obvious that it is you who contribute nothing to the debate in this thread except childish sarcasm and snide remarks. You come across as someone about to lose their bollix on their property investments.

Bass Reeves

landofthetree wrote: »

Ive made my suggestions on the economy in the FG thread,


My opinion on the housing market is prices will fall 40% over the next 12 months. I can see house building coming to a standstill. Mortgages will be very hard to get.

A 40% fall in 12 months would indicate a lot of forced sellers. Its hard to see how such a senario would happen which would see a large amount of property into a forced sale situation Even in the last bust it took 2-3 years for houses to bottom out and when they reached that level they rebounded faster than many taught.

Most hoarding takes place at site level. For instance not too far from me in a small village there was a development that got caught in that recession. Small commercial premise with 14 apartments in two floors over. It was bought about 3-4 years and new owner has not completed it. A lot of lower priced housing in not sought after area's never recovered its crazy some of these are empty with a rental return of present prices of 12-15%.

Could you see a price crash in higher priced area's maybe but 40% would take 2-3 years to achieve.

PommieBast

Bass Reeves wrote: »

A 40% fall in 12 months would indicate a lot of forced sellers. Its hard to see how such a senario would happen which would see a large amount of property into a forced sale situation

Alternatively we might be in a situation where the market is only forced-sellers. That would really screw up the statistics..

eagle eye

Yeah comparing this to the last major crash and the banking crisis is ludicrous.
We didn't have a housing shortage then, we had a glut of empty houses and a mass exodus of young people. We also had a banking crisis which isn't the case this time around.
Fact of the matter is this has been a disaster but they'll solve it by making the people pay for it. There won't be mass emigration because every country is suffering and there's no booming economy anywhere.
So we still have a housing crisis.

Hubertj

pearcider wrote: »

It is quite obvious that it is you who contribute nothing to the debate in this thread except childish sarcasm and snide remarks. You come across as someone about to lose their bollix on their property investments.

Ah it’s you again. As stated before I don’t have any property investments. I have my family home and I don’t know or care what value it is. Thought I might learn something in here about property but all I have learned is that there are plenty of spoofers, liars and miserable whiners.

Deub

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah comparing this to the last major crash and the banking crisis is ludicrous.
We didn't have a housing shortage then, we had a glut of empty houses and a mass exodus of young people. We also had a banking crisis which isn't the case this time around.
Fact of the matter is this has been a disaster but they'll solve it by making the people pay for it. There won't be mass emigration because every country is suffering and there's no booming economy anywhere.
So we still have a housing crisis.

Why do you think we don’t have a banking crisis? Because there is no bailout?

landofthetree

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah comparing this to the last major crash and the banking crisis is ludicrous.
We didn't have a housing shortage then, we had a glut of empty houses and a mass exodus of young people. We also had a banking crisis which isn't the case this time around.
Fact of the matter is this has been a disaster but they'll solve it by making the people pay for it. There won't be mass emigration because every country is suffering and there's no booming economy anywhere.
So we still have a housing crisis.

The likes of NZ,Auz etc have a low national debt.

When the crisis dies down they will be in a much better position. They will want Irish workers for recovery.

Cyrus

Deub wrote: »

Why do you think we don’t have a banking crisis? Because there is no bailout?

Our banks are about as well capitalised as they could have been , they will have issues post covid no doubt but it’s not even close to the same situation as before

Eric Cartman

landofthetree wrote: »

The likes of NZ,Auz etc have a low national debt.

When the crisis dies down they will be in a much better position. They will want Irish workers for recovery.

one single tax increase from the greens or to pay for this and they'll get those workers too. If you make more than 50k a year here it just about barely makes sense to remain, one increase and it won't anymore.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Last time around when somebody had the temerity to suggest house prices might fall they were told house prices would not fall, because "Ireland is different" - the fundamentals that had caused prices to crash in other countries did not apply the same here.

This time we are not told Ireland is different, but this "crisis will be different than those from before"; a different sort of recession as it were, one that causes a massive spike in unemployment, slashes income and corporate tax receipts, decimates the tourism and hospitality industries.

But will have a very minor impact on house prices apparently.

Feels very samey to me and I'm no more convinced this time around than I was in 2008.

I had impression you talking about public consensus in 2008?

schmittel wrote: »

It is far from a made up story. People obviously have short memories.

In April 2007 RTE aired a programme called Future Shock: Property Crash by Richard Curran of SBP outlining the dangers facing Irish market based on studies of crashes in other countries.

His programme, and anyone on it who dared to speak against the narrative of rising prices was condemned from Bertie down.

Clíodhna O'Donoghue, Property Editor, Irish Independent wrote a piece that was reflective of the mood:

The next day CBRE issued a lengthy press release to rubbish the programme, including this analysis from Marie Hunt, Director of Research:

Ireland is different was the whole basis the argument for the soft landing was built on.

I thought you was comparing 2008 vs 2020?
In here you talking about opposing opinions back in 2007, which doesn't say anything about general people opinion in 2008.
I'm not surprised that back in 2007, there where different opinions on property price by various experts.

Bass Reeves

PommieBast wrote: »

Alternatively we might be in a situation where the market is only forced-sellers. That would really screw up the statistics..

Forced sellers in large will take longer than 6-12 months to come through. That is a repossession senario and it takes years for this to happen

Bass Reeves

landofthetree wrote: »

The likes of NZ,Auz etc have a low national debt.

When the crisis dies down they will be in a much better position. They will want Irish workers for recovery.

Australia has completed s lot of it's infrastructure projects over last 15 years. There present construction phase was coming to an end. Both will be wary of allowing migration until s proven vaccine is in place. I cannot see a huge amount of the population leaving or having the choice to leave like after 2008-2010. Having said that until a vaccine we will not see a recovery in tourism which will effect Airbnb in Dublin especially. Then agai. Will Irish people opt for this as a travel solutions within the country rather than hotels

If the construction sector really slows I think the next government may go on an ambitious house building scheme

Eric Cartman

Eric Cartman wrote: »

if the LPT or income tax were reduced it may go up .

That's a huge if and a seriously dodgy may.

eagle eye

Bass Reeves wrote:

If the construction sector really slows I think the next government may go on an ambitious house building scheme

Where will the money for this come from? We will he busy paying back our loans. Plans like that are going to be put on the back burner.

Eric Cartman

Eric Cartman wrote: »

one single tax increase from the greens or to pay for this and they'll get those workers too. If you make more than 50k a year here it just about barely makes sense to remain, one increase and it won't anymore.

Do you honestly think that? I'm just wondering are you venting or do you really believe that.

There are fook loads of people here on €50k or more and they'd have no inclination to not remain here.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I had impression you talking about public consensus in 2008?

I thought you was comparing 2008 vs 2020?
In here you talking about opposing opinions back in 2007, which doesn't say anything about general people opinion in 2008.
I'm not surprised that back in 2007, there where different opinions on property price by various experts.

Seems legit.

Hubertj

Augeo wrote: »

That's a huge if and a seriously dodgy may.

i would have thought LPT would be increasing in the next few years?

theballz

The apartment I looked at pre-Covid listed at 450k.

It was never worth that, I made several offers to which my max was 430k. The family said they would accept 440k and I wouldn't budge.

When the crisis hit, I pulled out instead of waiting on them to concede. The EA came back to me stating the family were going to rent the property out for a year and relist, however, I know this is not the case, and it is still listed.

The buyer purchased this in 2012 for 425k.

I was thinking of going back now with a revised offer. What are your thoughts on that?

Bass Reeves

eagle eye wrote: »

Where will the money for this come from? We will he busy paying back our loans. Plans like that are going to be put on the back burner.

The last two big recessions we entered in the early 1980's and in the late noughtiry we were after government's that had allowed out of control spending. This time FG has kept the lid on it up until now. In the late noughties we had too many houses this time we have a housing shortage.

If you look at all the hints coming from government formation both FG and FF talk about a house building program. We will have the NAMA surplus and the Apple tax. As well if the bank share recover we will have that as well.

This time as well this recession will effect all economic activity accriss all countries so there will be an effort to.pump prime economic activity with in 12-18 months. I actually think we could enter a period of high inflation with low interest rates for 3-4 years.

ELM327

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The last two big recessions we entered in the early 1980's and in the late noughtiry we were after government's that had allowed out of control spending. This time FG has kept the lid on it up until now. In the late noughties we had too many houses this time we have a housing shortage.

If you look at all the hints coming from government formation both FG and FF talk about a house building program. We will have the NAMA surplus and the Apple tax. As well if the bank share recover we will have that as well.

This time as well this recession will effect all economic activity accriss all countries so there will be an effort to.pump prime economic activity with in 12-18 months. I actually think we could enter a period of high inflation with low interest rates for 3-4 years.

Riiight

timmyntc

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The last two big recessions we entered in the early 1980's and in the late noughtiry we were after government's that had allowed out of control spending. This time FG has kept the lid on it up until now. In the late noughties we had too many houses this time we have a housing shortage.

If you look at all the hints coming from government formation both FG and FF talk about a house building program. We will have the NAMA surplus and the Apple tax. As well if the bank share recover we will have that as well.

This time as well this recession will effect all economic activity accriss all countries so there will be an effort to.pump prime economic activity with in 12-18 months. I actually think we could enter a period of high inflation with low interest rates for 3-4 years.

No we will not have the Apple tax, as has been debated to death already.
The money would likely be borrowed, as interest rates are already at historic lows.

Cyrus

theballz wrote: »

The apartment I looked at pre-Covid listed at 450k.

It was never worth that, I made several offers to which my max was 430k. The family said they would accept 440k and I wouldn't budge.

When the crisis hit, I pulled out instead of waiting on them to concede. The EA came back to me stating the family were going to rent the property out for a year and relist, however, I know this is not the case, and it is still listed.

The buyer purchased this in 2012 for 425k.

I was thinking of going back now with a revised offer. What are your thoughts on that?

let them come to you.