Property Market 2020

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

So you are predicting minimum 40% by end of 2021? Ouch if that happens.

No, 40+% by end of 2022.

Hubertj

Snow Garden wrote: »

No, 40+% by end of 2022.

Sorry that’s what I meant - 2022. I hope you’re wrong for a lot of people’s sake.

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

Sorry that’s what I meant - 2022. I hope you’re wrong for a lot of people’s sake.

Same here. It's unprecedented really and I am struggling to see any positive aspects for Ireland in the short-medium term.

addaword

Snow Garden wrote: »

Same here. It's unprecedented really and I am struggling to see any positive aspects for Ireland in the short-medium term.

All western countries are going to see their economies destroyed, if nothing else.

hometruths

pearcider wrote: »

Sure thing. I wonder if a meteor hit Ireland and wiped it out, would this board still have people on it saying now is a good time to buy. Probably.

Probably. But at least they would be able to make a stronger argument than they are making now.

Marius34

Snow Garden wrote: »

No, 40+% by end of 2022.

That would mean a massive unemployment by than, what's your projection with unemployment for 2021 and 2022?
There are over 400.000 more people in Ireland now, than it was 2008, similar number of housing and less vacancy, with such fall presumably construction dead, what we can expect on people housing and homeless?

Cyrus

pearcider wrote: »

Sure thing. I wonder if a meteor hit Ireland and wiped it out, would this board still have people on it saying now is a good time to buy. Probably.

god this is the pits you were wrong take it on the chin stop trying to be smart it's not working for you

Where have I said its a good time to buy ?

cunnifferous

Cyrus wrote: »

You are making the assumption that 350 is reduced income for everyone in that cohort, also that those getting the subsidy are on reduced income.

It's staggering the amount of people on some kind of support at the moment.

The fact that a small cohort of these people may have slightly higher income on the covid payment is irrelevant, this will be very transient, there is already talk of 'tapering' the payment. In the medium to long term the fact that they or their employer has had to avail of this scheme can only be a negative indicator for their future income over the coming months/years.

pearcider

Cyrus wrote: »

god this is the pits you were wrong take it on the chin stop trying to be smart it's not working for you

Where have I said its a good time to buy ?

Cmon we’ve been going over this since the 2019 thread...but at least you have the sense to switch sides now.

stayback

My opinion on the whole housing market.

House prices are based on simple supply and demand. Never will there be an equilibrium between supply and demand.
Factors that effect supply and demand: accessibility to credit and the cost of credit. If the builder can’t get finance to build then supply is effected. If the house buyer can’t get finance then demand is effected. Both will have an effect on prices. Building inflation is another argument but that’s a wider problem (cost of living etc)
So house prices are determined by credit lines in essence. There have been many examples here of banks withdrawn mortgage offers and I suspect this will be the rule rather than the exception as we head into the next phase of this recovery.
This will inevitably lead to a drop in prices.
Now on the flip side of that if I was purchasing a house (family home) now and my employment is secure I wouldn’t by worried about price fluctuation as family home property should not be as an investment it should seen as an asset as a long as you can afford to keep the asset I.e pay the mortgage. Over the last number of years I’ve heard lots about negative equity. Negative equity is only relevant if your selling or trying to release equity. If you can keep the mortgage then it doesn’t concern you ..
we traded up in boom late 2006 have been in negative equity since then we are fortunate that we both have good jobs and we are able to meet our obligations albeit we have a tracker mortgage. But we never once looked at negative equity because we had no intention of selling.
I suppose what I’m trying to say don’t buy what can’t afford limits are there for a reason. It’s to protect you as much as the bank.. banks have been lending money for hundreds of years and they can spot a downward spiral. Trust me when a bank pulls a loan offer that will have a valid reason. Remember banks need to lend money to survive. For new builds in particular banks need to people to buy those houses so the builder can pay the bank back.. it’s all circle.

Just my thoughts

futonic

stayback wrote: »

accessibility to credit and the cost of credit.

Agreed with a lot of what you said above and were it not for this one assumption you would be right. However, I don't think the assumption is necessarily going to come true. There might not be decreased accessibility of credit as the ECB has effectively offered all central banks in the euro area access to a fund of 750B (to start with) to ensure that there is not limited access to credit.

In other words, it is within the grasp of our leaders to prevent it. Whether they will tap that offer or not, is another question, but I don't think reduced access to credit is inevitable. David McWilliams pod cast this week, is worth a listen.

MrMusician18

stayback wrote: »

My opinion on the whole housing market.

House prices are based on simple supply and demand. Never will there be an equilibrium between supply and demand.
Factors that effect supply and demand: accessibility to credit and the cost of credit. If the builder can’t get finance to build then supply is effected. If the house buyer can’t get finance then demand is effected. Both will have an effect on prices. Building inflation is another argument but that’s a wider problem (cost of living etc)
So house prices are determined by credit lines in essence. There have been many examples here of banks withdrawn mortgage offers and I suspect this will be the rule rather than the exception as we head into the next phase of this recovery.
This will inevitably lead to a drop in prices.
Now on the flip side of that if I was purchasing a house (family home) now and my employment is secure I wouldn’t by worried about price fluctuation as family home property should not be as an investment it should seen as an asset as a long as you can afford to keep the asset I.e pay the mortgage. Over the last number of years I’ve heard lots about negative equity. Negative equity is only relevant if your selling or trying to release equity. If you can keep the mortgage then it doesn’t concern you ..
we traded up in boom late 2006 have been in negative equity since then we are fortunate that we both have good jobs and we are able to meet our obligations albeit we have a tracker mortgage. But we never once looked at negative equity because we had no intention of selling.
I suppose what I’m trying to say don’t buy what can’t afford limits are there for a reason. It’s to protect you as much as the bank.. banks have been lending money for hundreds of years and they can spot a downward spiral. Trust me when a bank pulls a loan offer that will have a valid reason. Remember banks need to lend money to survive. For new builds in particular banks need to people to buy those houses so the builder can pay the bank back.. it’s all circle.

Just my thoughts

If you were purchasing a house now of course you should be world about price fluctuations. Waiting 6 months may mean that you can knock xx% off your mortgage or find a property in a more desirable location within budget.

The only risk against pulling the trigger not is that supply is likely to constrain as only the most motivated to sell will be putting their houses on the market. In that limited market though they're will be some excellent buying opportunities tbf.

lomb

schmittel wrote: »

What you said looks good on paper etc etc etc I am not disputing there will be some who take a 30 year view. Unlikely to be the STL cohort though.

All I am saying is it won't take many of these sort of eager sellers to put pressure on prices.

Here's one I found in about 5 minutes. And this guy is willing to take a haircut, presumably for a quick sale.

Apartment 1, 43 East Essex Street, Temple Bar, Dublin 2, D02 F409
https://bidx1.com/en/en-ie/auction/property/41628
Guide Price 385,000

Sold 25/11/2016 for €410,000.00

What's with the bedroom in the kitchen😁
Mick Wallace is a bit of a funny dude. Do a Google where he threatened Aib with burning his house down in Clontarf to stop them repossessing it.

stayback

futonic wrote: »

Agreed with a lot of what you said above and were it not for this one assumption you would be right. However, I don't think the assumption is necessarily going to come true. There might not be decreased accessibility of credit as the ECB has effectively offered all central banks in the euro area access to a fund of 750B (to start with) to ensure that there is not limited access to credit.

In other words, it is within the grasp of our leaders to prevent it. Whether they will tap that offer or not, is another question, but I don't think reduced access to credit is inevitable. David McWilliams pod cast this week, is worth a listen.

I take your point but i was just pointing out that accessibility and cost of credit is a factor to supply and demand. The bubble in the 00’s was created by the access to cheap credit and banks trying to compete with other. We had a lot more banks back then roughly 11or 12 lenders.. all wanting business. Ecb + 1% or less widely available..
banks queuing up to finance builders.
The difference between now and before is that banks are more prudent. But the cost of building and the ability for the builder to make a profit will also be a factor.

GreeBo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If you were purchasing a house now of course you should be world about price fluctuations. Waiting 6 months may mean that you can knock xx% off your mortgage or find a property in a more desirable location within budget.

.

I'll never understand this argument. There is no right time to buy ever if the above is how you think.

You should buy when you find a house that you like, in a location that suits you and you can comfortably afford the repayments.

Anything else is hitting the pause button on life for an undetermined period.

stayback

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If you were purchasing a house now of course you should be world about price fluctuations. Waiting 6 months may mean that you can knock xx% off your mortgage or find a property in a more desirable location within budget.

The only risk against pulling the trigger not is that supply is likely to constrain as only the most motivated to sell will be putting their houses on the market. In that limited market though they're will be some excellent buying opportunities tbf.

If the house is right for you and you can afford the house then buy it. Putting it off is a risk you can’t predict what’s going to happen. Too many variables I.e another buyer with cash mortgage might be more difficult to get etc.. you might not necessarily get a reduction.

Again if the house is right for you and you can afford it then buy it.

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

I'll never understand this argument. There is no right time to buy ever if the above is how you think.

GreeBo wrote:

You should buy when you find a house that you like, in a location that suits you and you can comfortably afford the repayments.

GreeBo wrote:

Anything else is hitting the pause button on life for an undetermined period.

It's a simple concept,
Why buy now when it will be cheaper in 6 months time
The concept is magnified significantly when it is the biggest purchase of your life

Hitting the pause button on your life is rubbish from the marketing manual of your estate agent/ bank

Do what is best for your families future not the banks or estate agents

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

It's a simple concept,
Why buy now when it will be cheaper in 6 months time
The concept is magnified significantly when it is the biggest purchase of your life

Hitting the pause button on your life is rubbish from the marketing manual of your estate agent/ bank

Do what is best for your families future not the banks or estate agents

Why buy in 6 months when it might be cheaper in 12?
Why 12 when maybe 18 will be cheaper.

I know more people who regret not buying than those who regret buying. We've had similar posts on this thread.

You are delaying a decision based on a future you can't confirm. If the numbers work for you now, buy now.

stayback

Villa05 wrote: »

It's a simple concept,
Why buy now when it will be cheaper in 6 months time
The concept is magnified significantly when it is the biggest purchase of your life

Hitting the pause button on your life is rubbish from the marketing manual of your estate agent/ bank

Do what is best for your families future not the banks or estate agents

If you can guarantee me that I will buy a house cheaper in 6 months than now then I’ll take the numbers for tomorrow nights euromillions please

Nobody can predict the future on the 31jan could you predict what was going to happen on the 15th March with country closing down. There is no guarantee prices are going to come down.
Again if the house is right for you and you can afford it then buy it.
If you have doubts of weather the house is right or concerns about your affordability then you have a decision to make.
Waiting for a % drop in prices is a very risky game to play.

Empty_Space

stayback wrote: »

If you can guarantee me that I will buy a house cheaper in 6 months than now then I’ll take the numbers for tomorrow nights euromillions please

Nobody can predict the future on the 31jan could you predict what was going to happen on the 15th March with country closing down. There is no guarantee prices are going to come down.
Again if the house is right for you and you can afford it then buy it.
If you have doubts of weather the house is right or concerns about your affordability then you have a decision to make.
Waiting for a % drop in prices is a very risky game to play.

I won't guarantee, but 99 percent sure price will be massively lower in 6 months. In two years, they will have crashed completely.

Some of the advice boggles the mind. You would be mad to buy now.

stayback

Empty_Space wrote: »

I won't guarantee, but 99 percent sure price will be massively lower in 6 months. In two years, they will have crashed completely.

Some of the advice boggles the mind. You would be mad to buy now.

2nd hand properties might drop but then again supply will dry up so that might stabilise prices.
New builds will not drop by much as the cost of building is close enough to the value of the property at present.
It will take government intervention to solve the new build prices how they do that is going to be a minefield.

Round Cable

stayback wrote: »

Waiting for a % drop in prices is a very risky game to play.

How so? With the severe economic conditions facing the world for the next few years, and the tightening of the availability of credit by banks, property values in Ireland are unlikely to be higher than February 2020 prices for years to come. There's next to no risk to wait, and a lot of potential benefit.

Empty_Space

stayback wrote: »

2nd hand properties might drop but then again supply will dry up so that might stabilise prices.
New builds will not drop by much as the cost of building is close enough to the value of the property at present.
It will take government intervention to solve the new build prices how they do that is going to be a minefield.

Forget all the noise you've been fed about building costs and supply/demand. This is all irrelevant and was used to prop prices.

Once the world goes into recession, prices will plummet. Investors will all sell for save haven's. Jobs will be lost. Earnings will be cut. Immigrats will go home. Companies will fail. House will be built at fractions of silly costs.

Experience_day

Empty_Space wrote: »

Forget all the noise you've been fed about building costs and supply/demand. This is all irrelevant and was used to prop prices.

Once the world goes into recession, prices will plummet. Investors will all sell for save haven's. Jobs will be lost. Earnings will be cut. Immigrats will go home. Companies will fail. House will be built at fractions of silly costs.

What safe haven is this?

JimmiesRustled

Empty_Space wrote: »

Forget all the noise you've been fed about building costs and supply/demand. This is all irrelevant and was used to prop prices.

Once the world goes into recession, prices will plummet. Investors will all sell for save haven's. Jobs will be lost. Earnings will be cut. Immigrats will go home. Companies will fail. House will be built at fractions of silly costs.

It's also likely, with all that uncertainty, that it'll be extremely difficult to borrow any money. If what you're saying comes to pass, it'll only really be cash buyers that see any benefit.

I'd wager that the majority of people looking to buy now simply don't have 100's of thousands of euro saved about the place.

JimmyVik

cunnifferous wrote: »

It's staggering the amount of people on some kind of support at the moment.

The fact that a small cohort of these people may have slightly higher income on the covid payment is irrelevant, this will be very transient, there is already talk of 'tapering' the payment. In the medium to long term the fact that they or their employer has had to avail of this scheme can only be a negative indicator for their future income over the coming months/years.

I know loads of people on this €350 a week who were earning nowhere near that before the crisis. Some even just working 1 or 2 days at weekends.
Some only doing a few hours during the week.
Some who are spouses of self employed and paid a wage on the wife and children scam that self employed do for tax reasons.

They applied for it and got it.

JimmyVik

I had AIP from the bank this year.I was on the fence about buying. I had actually decided no to buy this year anyway even before the virus hit.
So two weeks ago, for the fun of it and out of curiosity, I fired off an email and asked if I could increase the AIP amount by €10k. Just in case I saw a bargain I could jump on if prices fell.

A letter just landed in the post box. Its a whole lot of waffle, but basically its a NO. And a bit on the end asking me to apply for my current AIP again, to be sure that they can still lend that amount before I proceed with a purchase.


So, from the tone of the letter, my guess is that if I did proceed, come time to draw down the mortgage I would get a big PFO.

Snow Garden

stayback wrote: »

If the house is right for you and you can afford the house then buy it. Putting it off is a risk you can’t predict what’s going to happen. Too many variables I.e another buyer with cash mortgage might be more difficult to get etc.. you might not necessarily get a reduction.

Again if the house is right for you and you can afford it then buy it.

But it is happening. It's unfolding right now. Some are calling it the largest economic shock since the Great Depression. Others are saying in 300 years.
It would be lunacy to buy a house now.

Hubertj

Snow Garden wrote: »

But it is happening. It's unfolding right now. Some are calling it the largest economic shock since the Great Depression. Others are saying in 300 years.
It would be lunacy to buy a house now.

If you find a house you love and are confident of job security why not proceed? The house might not be available in 6 months? If it is a house you will stay in for life does the value of it matter?

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

If you find a house you love and are confident of job security why not proceed? The house might not be available in 6 months? If it is a house you will stay in for life does the value of it matter?

Yeah fair enough but if my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle.
It would want to be the house of your dreams because I believe you'll pick up a much better house for the same price in 1 year. Better again in 2 years.