Property Market 2020

Empty_Space

cnocbui wrote: »

EU 1.2% Trust me, that is not inflation, neither is 1.8%

Have you first hand experience of living with inflation of 7%?
How about 10%?
How about 15%?

The stock market has bounced because there is nowhere else to invest money for a return because interest rates have been zeroed, not because of inflation. The stock market appreciating is not inflation. The idiots in the US provided 'stimulus' to financial institutions and corporations, not the public. They didn't use the free money to grow their businesses or lend, because demand from consumers has been flat, because they haven't seen real wage increases in a very long time; the corporations and financial institutions bought shares instead.

Actually, as long as the number is positive it is inflation, by definition.

And it seems you are missing my point. I am saying we are heading into massive deflation because the government finally wont be able to keep number positive.

tastyt

More bad news of retail stores oasis and warehouse closing permanently. 250 jobs gone here.

Obviously 250 jobs in retail won’t effect the property market but there are a lot of clouds looming over a lot of businesses, it’s a very worrying time

Cyrus

tastyt wrote: »

More bad news of retail stores oasis and warehouse closing permanently. 250 jobs gone here.

Obviously 250 jobs in retail won’t effect the property market but there are a lot of clouds looming over a lot of businesses, it’s a very worrying time

they were fooked a long time ago, just a final nail in the coffin.

amyed198

Empty_Space wrote: »

I won't guarantee, but 99 percent sure price will be massively lower in 6 months. In two years, they will have crashed completely.

Some of the advice boggles the mind. You would be mad to buy now.

You can only lead a horse to water.

awec

amyed198 wrote: »

You can only lead a horse to water.

You're pretty mouthy for someone who only 4 days ago asked about using loan sharks to prop up your purchase that you didn't want to pull out of.

amyed198

Cyrus wrote: »

they were fooked a long time ago, just a final nail in the coffin.

A bit like the whole economy which has been sedated with QE for a long time. Covid19 has just sped up the process of the crash.

Padre_Pio

tastyt wrote: »

More bad news of retail stores oasis and warehouse closing permanently. 250 jobs gone here.

Obviously 250 jobs in retail won’t effect the property market but there are a lot of clouds looming over a lot of businesses, it’s a very worrying time

They went bust in the UK last month, losing money for years. COVID was the final nail in the coffin.

There's plenty of businesses limping along that will be killed soon enough, same happened to all the local factories in towns across Ireland in 2009.

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

I am pretty sure it has come up fairly regularly in this thread.

Both as a general reason that demand and thus prices will remain high -

i.e demand will be high because a lot of people will buy now because they know they will not be able to get as big a or any mortgage in the future.

and also as a comment on individual cases.

i.e a person in shaky job situation should buy now because they will not get a mortgage in the future.

I have to say I have followed this thread pretty closely and I didn't see any body suggest either of those things, did I just miss them? Can you point them out? Its certainly not a running theme.

Someone recently took a comment I made and spun it to mean that people should apply now before they lose the jobs, but since I didnt say anything of the sort, I'm discounting that.

SozBbz

Cyrus wrote: »

they were fooked a long time ago, just a final nail in the coffin.

Completely agree, especially Oasis. They'd gone off the boil a long time ago, they lost sight of their customer and it was going to come to an end at some point, this only hastened their demise.

I'm a female in my early/mid 30's and I havent bought anything in Oasis for 5+ years and I should be their target market. Fashion retail has to evolve or die, and Oasis was stuck in some sort of dowdy floral rut.

There is still going to be clothing retail after Covid19, it will just look different.

Claw Hammer

When a shop closes down, it doesn't mean a loss of jobs. The same people who used to buy goods there will still buy the same goods elsewhere so the jobs are just dispersed. This jobs lost and jobs created in relation to shops are just nonsense.

GreeBo

Empty_Space wrote: »

I won't guarantee, but 99 percent sure price will be massively lower in 6 months. In two years, they will have crashed completely.

Some of the advice boggles the mind. You would be mad to buy now.

So you are 99% sure that there will be a massive drop in prices and within 2 years they have dropped completely...but you wont guarantee it?

Seems legit!

Retail in huge trouble. Any business relying on department stores with expensive costs to essentially resell a product is in big trouble but this has been the case for 10+ years, it's coming to the fore now though.

SozBbz

Claw Hammer wrote: »

When a shop closes down, it doesn't mean a loss of jobs. The same people who used to buy goods there will still buy the same goods elsewhere so the jobs are just dispersed. This jobs lost and jobs created in relation to shops are just nonsense.

While I think there is some truth to this, you're failing to factor in the online factor that fashion retail is up against.

We are losing highstreet shops in favour of online retailers that don't have any physical presence.

This is a danger to the Irish economy as under this model a lot of money goes straight out of the country to the likes of ASOS, PLT, Net a Porter, MyTheresa, The Outnet etc.

You could say that Covid 19 is causing people to buy online who otherwise werent online shoppers. You can't assume that things will go back once people have tried online and liked it.

Nika Bolokov

Mods really need to get their finger out and clean up this thread.

It's wandering all over the place.

Empty_Space

GreeBo wrote: »

So you are 99% sure that there will be a massive drop in prices and within 2 years they have dropped completely...but you wont guarantee it?

Seems legit!

There are no guarantees, but lets just stay the odds are as stacked as they could ever be.

GreeBo

Empty_Space wrote: »

There are no guarantees, but lets just stay the odds are as stacked as they could ever be.

If there are no guarantees then it seems strange that you are convinced within 2 years the market will be totally dead with prices in the toilet.

You are basically saying that it will either be a total disaster in the next two years and then caveating it to say it might not be.

I'd question the value of statements such as that, it seems a lot like scaremongering tbh.

awec

I am fairly convinced that prices are going to fall.

I am also fairly convinced that a lot of people who think they will be waiting and then picking up a bargain are going to end up disappointed, as they will realise that they were the collateral damage during the events that caused prices to fall, or that the houses they thought they would be buying for cheap are not the houses that are actually on the market.

Ozark707

awec wrote: »

I am fairly convinced that prices are going to fall.

I am also fairly convinced that a lot of people who think they will be waiting and then picking up a bargain are going to end up disappointed, as they will realise that they were the collateral damage during the events that caused prices to fall, or that the houses they thought they would be buying for cheap are not the houses that are actually on the market.

Time will tell either way. I just hope whatever correction occurs is not like the drawn out affair of the last time.

Greyian

Claw Hammer wrote: »

When a shop closes down, it doesn't mean a loss of jobs. The same people who used to buy goods there will still buy the same goods elsewhere so the jobs are just dispersed. This jobs lost and jobs created in relation to shops are just nonsense.

Sometimes it's because there's less of a demand for the goods that are being sold, which results in a loss of jobs.

Sometimes the overall demand mightn't change, so another shop/business picks up more sales, but doesn't need to expand their workforce to handle the increase in business, meaning the jobs are still lost from the closed business.

awec

Ozark707 wrote: »

Time will tell either way. I just hope whatever correction occurs is not like the drawn out affair of the last time.

I think different segments of the market will react very differently.

Apartments might see a relatively quick drop as investors sell off properties. 3/4 bed family homes in nice areas likely to be a lot slower.

The top-level average will show a drop, but this is not likely to translate into drops everywhere, certainly not to the same extent.

cute geoge

imo prices will be back but houses were probable over valued there with the last 12 months .in local town with high unemployment very basic 2 bed apartments needing renovations in town were easily making 80-85k up from 40k

Empty_Space

GreeBo wrote: »

If there are no guarantees then it seems strange that you are convinced within 2 years the market will be totally dead with prices in the toilet.

You are basically saying that it will either be a total disaster in the next two years and then caveating it to say it might not be.

I'd question the value of statements such as that, it seems a lot like scaremongering tbh.

If you more then a 99 percent certainty, I dont know what I can do for you.

Bass Reeves

cute geoge wrote: »

imo prices will be back but houses were probable over valued there with the last 12 months .in local town with high unemployment very basic 2 bed apartments needing renovations in town were easily making 80-85k up from 40k

At 80-85K they were still below rebuild costs. Lads that bought them might still have yields in excess of 10%+. Such people have bough for cash and will not be under pressure to sell. If they fall in price they will buy again

fliball123

addaword wrote: »

Probably some properties currently occupied by unemployed publicans, hotel workers, pilots etc will come to the market in the next few years too. And properties of people unfortunately deceased.

Why would they come onto the market ireland is the only country where you can get away without paying your mortgage for years..People waiting on a house where someone who is unemployed and struggling will be waiting a long long long time..

Melanchthon

awec wrote: »

I think different segments of the market will react very differently.

Apartments might see a relatively quick drop as investors sell off properties. 3/4 bed family homes in nice areas likely to be a lot slower.

The top-level average will show a drop, but this is not likely to translate into drops everywhere, certainly not to the same extent.

Personally I do want house prices to fall but unfortunatly you might be right that the big drops will be the expensive places.

In terms of the new Dublin builds though what's going to happen, from what I saw before this they were expensive and often pretty pokey with small gardens, didn't know anybody that looked seriously at them. In terms of who is going to buy them now though if costs were as high as developers said when they were talking about margins. Are the council's going to be buying up a greater share, this was already a worry in that you paid a premium and then ended up with same social problems as better value areas*, if councils buy greater stock this is going to be an even bigger concern for the smaller amount of private buyers, and with likely large drops in migration will rental companies keep buying?

* At least in my head there is a big difference between paying 250k for a three bed and having social issues to paying 400/450k and having social issues.

fliball123

Bass Reeves wrote: »

In general there are a few reasons that inflation has been kept under control. If we had not kept it under control in general it would have been China that benefited. When economies were under pressure the ECB as part of a bond buying package attached austerity to the package. This was necessary in those senario's.

However at present the financial crisis is different austerity would only exasperate it. If the choice is between inflation and high deflation, then inflation is the best choice. Inflation with low deposit rates will encourage those with large savings to spend them.

Government will be inclined to spend there way out of this crisis rather than shrink the economy further. It will pump money into small businesses, reduce rates, stabilize bank funding. This is not an PIGS only problem all economies are in it together.

The Germans fear is that Italy in particular will not carry out necessary reforms. However if the choice is between pumping all economic activity living with the Italy issue for 6-10 years then that is the choice that will be made.

The biggest risk to Dublin house prices is a government buildings program like the 1930/40's

In order to do that your going to have to get building contractors in and willing to make SFA on their hard work. Cant see any government building like this for years sure the builders were moaning back in 2018 when the prices hit their high point in the last decade saying there is no money to be made.

Ozark707

awec wrote: »

I think different segments of the market will react very differently.

Apartments might see a relatively quick drop as investors sell off properties. 3/4 bed family homes in nice areas likely to be a lot slower.

The top-level average will show a drop, but this is not likely to translate into drops everywhere, certainly not to the same extent.

The only thing I would disagree is on whether any segment of the market will remain immune to drops. I just cannot see it playing out that way. Different segments of the market are linked to each other to one extent or another (trading up etc).

Donald Trump

fliball123 wrote: »

In order to do that your going to have to get building contractors in and willing to make SFA on their hard work. Cant see any government building like this for years sure the builders were moaning back in 2018 when the prices hit their high point in the last decade saying there is no money to be made.

It's not the building contractors that make the big margins.

Ozark707

Melanchthon wrote: »

and with likely large drops in migration will rental companies keep buying?

I think the likes of the REITs will be influenced by how the rental market gets on and we don't necessarily need to see a drop in migration for that to correct. Of course it won't help in keeping rental prices high if migration tails off.

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

people will always rate their own productivity highly.

Well they did say that some employers were concerned of employee burnout as they did not know when to log out and stop working