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Property Market 2020
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Join Date:Posts: 5898
Hold on now, thats not what I said.
You asked did I agree that a large number of properties that were previously on the market were no longer on the market and I agreed.
I also pointed out that there are a huge number of REITs now in the market that didnt exist before, this has undoubtedly increased the supply of rental properties, which has in turn increased the cost of buying a property as it increased demand.
You are trying to isolate a market to 1 thing to explain it, its far more complicated and interlinked than that.
Both purchasers and renters and investors are all utilizing the same thing, property; ergo they interact and influence each other. I dont think this is news?
If that's not what you said then apologies, I am confused.
Of course it is not news, but I am trying to understand your interpretation of how they influence each other.
I was trying to simplify it to help me out. Ignoring presence of REITs vs private landlords, they're all landlords, can you help me out by answering the following:
1) Would you agree that a large number of properties that were on the rental market in 2011 are now no longer available on the rental market? i.e total rental supply in 2011 was greater than it was at end of 2019.
2) If yes to question 1 would you agree that the reduced supply is a significant factor in the rental price increases since then?
3) What impact on property sales prices do you think rental price increases has had in period 2011 - 2019?0 -
Assetbacked wrote:- It is still far cheaper to pay for a mortgage than to pay for rent.
Yet the state is forking 1 billion a year in private resedintial rents.
The state has also access to loan rates of less than1% making mortgage cost far cheaper again
The state has access to development land without the premium demanded in the private sector making new housing cost substantially cheaper
Once the recession kicks in Building work will dicipate. A state stimulus to build appropiate housing where it is needed seems like a no brainerAssetbacked wrote:- April rents down 2.1% from March but still higher than a year ago (by 3.8%). Average rent in Dublin City is €1974-2111. The opinion of the author is that rents will continue to fall for the rest of the year at least given the rise in unemployment.
Rents have become a poverty trap for low to middle income workers and a drag on spending in the economy for high income earners. For those unemployed, you really have to think why bother trying
It is a credit to the Irish people that we have managed to bring unemployment down to 4%. That will to work is very strong when that major handicap of housing cost is attachedAssetbacked wrote:- BTL sector has a healthy level of projects in the pipeline, but (my view) the State needs to get onto a mass home building project to help continue bring down the cost of housing.
It looks like a silver bullet to many issues in the Irish economy
Stimulus to the people
Benefits to the environment
Makes third level education more affordable and accesible
Improves competitiveness
Reduced childcare costs note the difference in childcare cost between Dublin and other parts of the country where property is more affordable
Reduced housing costs makes new taxes more palatable
Water charges, appropriate property taxes
I could go on and on
Delay is only adding to our national debt Immediate action would see a pathway to tackling it and reducing it significantly0 -
If that's not what you said then apologies, I am confused.
Of course it is not news, but I am trying to understand your interpretation of how they influence each other.
I was trying to simplify it to help me out. Ignoring presence of REITs vs private landlords, they're all landlords, can you help me out by answering the following:
to be honest my interpretation is thats "its complicated".
note that I wasnt trying to distinguish between REIT and private landlords, I was pointing out that properties that in the past would have been privately owned are now being bought up en masse by REITs.
I think I see the confusion. I wouldnt agree that the first sentence implies the second one.
1) Would you agree that a large number of properties that were on the rental market in 2011 are now no longer available on the rental market? i.e total rental supply in 2011 was greater than it was at end of 2019.
Are you talking about properties available to rent of total rental properties?
Based on CSO figures, the number of rental properties in total has increased since 2011.
The total number of houses owned (either outright or mortgage) has decreased since 2011.
To me this means that houses have been sold and entered the rental market.
Again, are you talking about reduced available supply or outright supply?2) If yes to question 1 would you agree that the reduced supply is a significant factor in the rental price increases since then?
In any case, reduced supply for either reason will increase rental prices. demand > supply
This is where we are going to run into difficulties. I dont think you can isolate property sales prices to the rental market.3) What impact on property sales prices do you think rental price increases has had in period 2011 - 2019?
At the macro level, property prices will increase because demand > supply.
Properties moving into the rental market will decrease supply of houses to buy.
Increased yields from rent will cause properties to move into the rental market.
But more properties in the rental market will increase rental supply and thus lower rents.
Lower rents will mean lower yields so will move rental properties back into the purchase market.
Increased property prices will potentially decrease the number of properties moving into the rental market due to cost to enter the landlord market.
Again, its all terribly interlinked, and I dont agree with the idea of trying to simply it all down to "increased rents cause property prices to increase"0 -
Join Date:Posts: 5898
to be honest my interpretation is thats "its complicated".
I can see that...I think I see the confusion. I wouldnt agree that the first sentence implies the second one.
Are you talking about properties available to rent of total rental properties?
Based on CSO figures, the number of rental properties in total has increased since 2011.
Apologies I should have been clearer I meant available supply - the total was about REITS + private investors etc.
I firmly believe that the first sentence implies the second - i.e lack of available supply is a significant factor driving up prices.The total number of houses owned (either outright or mortgage) has decreased since 2011.
To me this means that houses have been sold and entered the rental market.
I presume you're talking about total owner occupied?Again, are you talking about reduced available supply or outright supply?
In any case, reduced supply for either reason will increase rental prices. demand > supply
This is where we are going to run into difficulties. I dont think you can isolate property sales prices to the rental market.
At the macro level, property prices will increase because demand > supply.
Properties moving into the rental market will decrease supply of houses to buy.
Increased yields from rent will cause properties to move into the rental market.
But more properties in the rental market will increase rental supply and thus lower rents.
Lower rents will mean lower yields so will move rental properties back into the purchase market.
Increased property prices will potentially decrease the number of properties moving into the rental market due to cost to enter the landlord market.
One of us has got this totally backwards.Again, its all terribly interlinked, and I dont agree with the idea of trying to simply it all down to "increased rents cause property prices to increase"
Just simplify it down to it doesn't matter when you buy because prices always rise instead so.0 -
If that's not what you said then apologies, I am confused.
1) Would you agree that a large number of properties that were on the rental market in 2011 are now no longer available on the rental market? i.e total rental supply in 2011 was greater than it was at end of 2019.
2) If yes to question 1 would you agree that the reduced supply is a significant factor in the rental price increases since then?
3) What impact on property sales prices do you think rental price increases has had in period 2011 - 2019?
There is some statistics, I can't find for 2019.
but there is 2011 vs 2016. If you can find better stats please provide.
It shows that there are more properties rented in 2016 than 2011. But since Population and demands is growing much faster, there is less available vacancy and more occupied, which cause Price increase.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/tr/0 -
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Pivot Eoin wrote: »Agreed, whole situation is like The Big Short, The EAs are the big banks, laughing at Christian Bale, Steve Carrel, Ryan Gosling and Co. (Buyers) and the whole market just refuses to react to the deepening crater of what is happening to the economy and the housing market is just priced as usual until an inevitable and sharp Decline!
In the end, there is going to be a few sellers who get burnt particularly bad due to greedy practice by EAs, hopefully an industry that doesn't exist too much longer with the likes of Auctioneera, BidX1, Purple Bricks etc.
EA do not set the price vendors do. It shows how little some know about buying or selling anything
By the way while the big short happened it was a film you saw.Slava Ukrainii
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Bass Reeves wrote: »EA do not set the price vendors do. It shows how little some know about buying or selling anything
That’s not accurate. The vendors set it by taking into account the advice and professional valuation of the people qualified in giving valuations. Some people might completely disagree with it, but the vast majority take the recommendation of the EA0 -
Join Date:Posts: 5898
There is some statistics, I can't find for 2019.
but there is 2011 vs 2016. If you can find better stats please provide.
It shows that there are more properties rented in 2016 than 2011. But since Population and demands is growing much faster, there is less available vacancy and more occupied, which cause Price increase.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/tr/
Yes I clarified I meant available supply on the market - i.e advertised for rent.
That is dramatically down since 2011.0 -
lawrencesummers wrote: »That’s not accurate. The vendors set it by taking into account the advice and professional valuation of the people qualified in giving valuations. Some people might completely disagree with it, but the vast majority take the recommendation of the EA
Contrary to what some people think it is the vendor at the end of the day. I agree that EA give the advice but when selling property be a little wary of EA valuations.
Vendors may or may not accept EA valuations so in essence they set the price. Vendors decide to accept it reject lower or higher prices than the guide price. In the Irish system the buyers is not supposed to like the EA, he is working and paid for by the vendor. It is different in some European countries the vendor and buyer both pay the EA comission.
It's in an EA interest to get a sale complete no sale no fee. In general they are not interested in trying to gouge 3-5k extra from buyer. On a 400k purchase with a 1.5 % comission EA get 6k another 5k is only worth 50 euro to EA. However in general he will know or have an idea what is the minimum a vendor will accept and he may need to get to that price to get deal over the line.
Bid1X are really only there to sell distressed, semi distressed propertiesor properties with issues. Again it is interesting to see how many here are ignorant of buying and selling. At an auction the buyers puts down a non refundable deposit and if they fail to complete the sale are responsible for any losses or extra expenses of the vendor. Buyers have to have all there building surveys done before auction. With the change in engineer liability this has become much more expensive. I bought a rental property a few years ago I never got an engineer report as I just got a personal loan to cover shortfall.Slava Ukrainii
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Ahh sarcasm, helpful.I can see that...
sure lack of supply drives up prices, but that is not the same thing as saying that properties available in 2006 not being available in 2019 decreases overall supply. It would if no new properties were entering the overall supply, which is not the case.Apologies I should have been clearer I meant available supply - the total was about REITS + private investors etc.
I firmly believe that the first sentence implies the second - i.e lack of available supply is a significant factor driving up prices.
If 10,000 rental properties from 2006 become owner occupied but 25,000 new rental properties are built the overall supply has increased despite the fact that 100% of available properties from 2006 are now longer available.
Or, its complicated and there is no single answer to what you are looking for.I presume you're talking about total owner occupied?
One of us has got this totally backwards.
Just simplify it down to it doesn't matter when you buy because prices always rise instead so.
Well you are simplifying it down to rents so why not?0 -
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I am saying you should buy now if you have found the house you want in the area you want for the price you can afford. You should never make any significant purchase if you think your finances are in jeopardy, covid 19 doesn't alter that advice.
Right now is the only time you can buy a house while armed with all the facts.
Buying in the past would be better, but sadly is impossible
Buying in the future is taking the purchase out of your hands and relying on things outside of your control. I prefer to make significant decisions when I have all the facts and am in control.
Lots of mental masturbation going on here0 -
Nika Bolokov wrote: »Mods really need to get their finger out and clean up this thread.
It's wandering all over the place.
Agreed, a certain "mod" in particular and a few other clowns.
We came here looking for advice on our buying situation and we got it. Having spent some time in this thread and in our opinion it is quite honestly a waste of time debating back and forth.
After doing a bit of research it is now clear to us that the dogs on the street know that house prices are going to fall off a cliff. We will wait patiently and hopefully get a good deal. Take what some say with a pinch of salt and ignore some of the Gestapo (certain mods on this thread).
On that note, we hope everyone the best in their house hunting endeavors.
Auf Wiedersehen0 -
Agreed, a certain "mod" in particular and a few other clowns.
We came here looking for advice on our buying situation and we got it. Having spent some time in this thread and in our opinion it is quite honestly a waste of time debating back and forth.
After doing a bit of research it is now clear to us that the dogs on the street know that house prices are going to fall off a cliff. We will wait patiently and hopefully get a good deal. Take what some say with a pinch of salt and ignore some of the Gestapo (certain mods on this thread).
On that note, we hope everyone the best in their house hunting endeavors.
Auf Wiedersehen
if you came to this thread looking for advice, it means you should not be buying a property, Covd or no Covid. It is a big decision YOU need to make your mind up on and take professional or trusted advice. Some contributors do give balanced opinions but too many are whack jobs.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 5898
sure lack of supply drives up prices, but that is not the same thing as saying that properties available in 2006 not being available in 2019 decreases overall supply. It would if no new properties were entering the overall supply, which is not the case.
If 10,000 rental properties from 2006 become owner occupied but 25,000 new rental properties are built the overall supply has increased despite the fact that 100% of available properties from 2006 are now longer available.
I know you think dates are trivial, and it makes no difference if you bought a house in 2008 or 2005 but why have you suddenly started talking about 2006 when we were discussing the changes since 2011?!0 -
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Because I was responding to a post by addaword where they brought up 2006 levels.I know you think dates are trivial, and it makes no difference if you bought a house in 2008 or 2005 but why have you suddenly started talking about 2006 when we were discussing the changes since 2011?!
if you want to have a discussion/debate/argument then thats fine, but your last number of posts have been silly and childish.
Either discuss like an adult or discuss with someone else thanks.In 2006 a wise man said " in every recession property falls at least 20%". Nobody believed him but he was proven right some years later.Ah? the auld auld demographics was touted as a reason in 2006 why prices would never fall either.On a national basis, they are not at their 2006 2007 levels.
Demographics in 2006/7 did not prevent the crash in values over the next 6 years.0 -
Agreed, a certain "mod" in particular and a few other clowns.
We came here looking for advice on our buying situation and we got it. Having spent some time in this thread and in our opinion it is quite honestly a waste of time debating back and forth.
After doing a bit of research it is now clear to us that the dogs on the street know that house prices are going to fall off a cliff. We will wait patiently and hopefully get a good deal. Take what some say with a pinch of salt and ignore some of the Gestapo (certain mods on this thread).
On that note, we hope everyone the best in their house hunting endeavors.
Auf Wiedersehen
Are you ok, hun? As someone who plans to purchase a house, I’m a long time reader of this thread and enjoy hearing the two sides of opinion on this topic. I don’t limit my reading to boards and in the end, the choices I make will be informed and ultimately mine. You though?
You came here to look for advice while toying with the idea of borrowing from loan sharks. You took the advice that suited your narrative and are now slamming all other opinions in the rudest manner I’ve seen on this thread. You are no more an expert than those dogs on the street you’ve been barking at.
Off you fcuk.0 -
Bass Reeves wrote: »EA do not set the price vendors do. It shows how little some know about buying or selling anything
By the way while the big short happened it was a film you saw.
No WAYY! The Big short wasn't just a movie? It actually happened? GTFOH. I just thought they made up a big financial collapse caused by Overpriced Housing Bubbles and too easy access to credit in 2008?
A lot of Vendors don't have a clue what their house is actually worth to a buyer in a market, only what it is worth (they think) to them. EAs recommend prices and pricing strategies, whether it's Aiming for the Stars to reach the sky, or setting it low to spark a bidding war is what is guiding asking prices more than a fictitious number inside someone's head.
Granted an extra 5k makes little difference in commission, but you neglect the fact that the offers coming in are based off the initial price that is set by the EA and Vendor combined. So the expectation of the minimum sale price is cognitively set by the Advice and guide of the EAs.0 -
Pivot Eoin wrote: »No WAYY! The Big short wasn't just a movie? It actually happened? GTFOH. I just thought they made up a big financial collapse caused by Overpriced Housing Bubbles and too easy access to credit in 2008?
A lot of Vendors don't have a clue what their house is actually worth to a buyer in a market, only what it is worth (they think) to them. EAs recommend prices and pricing strategies, whether it's Aiming for the Stars to reach the sky, or setting it low to spark a bidding war is what is guiding asking prices more than a fictitious number inside someone's head.
Granted an extra 5k makes little difference in commission, but you neglect the fact that the offers coming in are based off the initial price that is set by the EA and Vendor combined. So the expectation of the minimum sale price is cognitively set by the Advice and guide of the EAs.
Every vendor knows the rough ballpark of the value of their house in the market. EAs will refine the initial price up or down around this, but the idea that vendors are relying on them to pull figures out of thin air is a bit fantastical.
One of the very first things people will do before deciding to sell is to work out the realistic value of their current place. I am sure there are plenty of cases of vendors having their heads up their arse and EAs revising the price they want downward.0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 5898
Because I was responding to a post by addaword where they brought up 2006 levels.
if you want to have a discussion/debate/argument then thats fine, but your last number of posts have been silly and childish.
Either discuss like an adult or discuss with someone else thanks.
Fair enough, I thought you were responding to me and our "Would you agree that a large number of properties that were on the rental market in 2011 are now no longer available on the rental market" discussion that we started this morning.
I had no idea you were responding to the addaword's post from yesterday.
I think it was the fact you quoted my preceding post and not addawords that caused my misunderstanding.
Apologies.0 -
Every vendor knows the rough ballpark of the value of their house in the market. EAs will refine the initial price up or down around this, but the idea that vendors are relying on them to pull figures out of thin air is a bit fantastical.
One of the very first things people will do before deciding to sell is to work out the realistic value of their current place. I am sure there are plenty of cases of vendors having their heads up their arse and EAs revising the price they want downward.
I disagree with first para, and agree with second (although would limit to smart/realistic people).
A lot of vendors living in a house needing lots of modernization, will see an A Grade 10/10 finished house down the road sell and then say "well theirs is done up nice, so our house is probably worth €20k less". I've seen it.
In reality the big nice kitchen extension, 10/10 finishes, attic conversion etc. is €100k worth of work that the ideal buyer doesn't have to go through. The problem commonly is that the 10/10 house is out of most people's budget looking in that area, so the run down house ends up selling for far less than €100k difference.
There are lots of different factors, but i think it's fair to say that the majority of vendors overvalue their house quite significantly at initial Asking, and not enough EAs address this at the beginning, leading to slow sales and frustrating buyer experiences.0 -
Pivot Eoin wrote: »No WAYY! The Big short wasn't just a movie? It actually happened? GTFOH. I just thought they made up a big financial collapse caused by Overpriced Housing Bubbles and too easy access to credit in 2008?
A lot of Vendors don't have a clue what their house is actually worth to a buyer in a market, only what it is worth (they think) to them. EAs recommend prices and pricing strategies, whether it's Aiming for the Stars to reach the sky, or setting it low to spark a bidding war is what is guiding asking prices more than a fictitious number inside someone's head.
Granted an extra 5k makes little difference in commission, but you neglect the fact that the offers coming in are based off the initial price that is set by the EA and Vendor combined. So the expectation of the minimum sale price is cognitively set by the Advice and guide of the EAs.
If you had read my post you would have seen what I posted I will put it up again
By the way while the big short happened it was a film you saw.
Again I suspect you have never bought or sold a big ticket item. There is an old saying ''while you may get many chances to buy you only get one chance to sell''. This means when it sold it's sold. There is no getting it back. Majority of vendors will have there homework done. Most will have an idea of there price. Even if there value is wow wow and even if the EA fails to convince them to reduce it he will list it at there guide price.Slava Ukrainii
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Pivot Eoin wrote: »I disagree with first para, and agree with second (although would limit to smart/realistic people).
A lot of vendors living in a house needing lots of modernization, will see an A Grade 10/10 finished house down the road sell and then say "well theirs is done up nice, so our house is probably worth €20k less". I've seen it.
In reality the big nice kitchen extension, 10/10 finishes, attic conversion etc. is €100k worth of work that the ideal buyer doesn't have to go through. The problem commonly is that the 10/10 house is out of most people's budget looking in that area, so the run down house ends up selling for far less than €100k difference.
There are lots of different factors, but i think it's fair to say that the majority of vendors overvalue their house quite significantly at initial Asking, and not enough EAs address this at the beginning, leading to slow sales and frustrating buyer experiences.
What can EA do to address it? They can suggest lower but vendor has the ultimate say.
Most vendors are likely to have a go at the higher value and only drop if interest is low. In general they’ve nothing to lose doing this except time.0 -
Bass Reeves wrote: »If you had read my post you would have seen what I posted I will put it up again
By the way while the big short happened it was a film you saw.
Again I suspect you have never bought or sold a big ticket item. There is an old saying ''while you may get many chances to buy you only get one chance to sell''. This means when it sold it's sold. There is no getting it back. Majority of vendors will have there homework done. Most will have an idea of there price. Even if there value is wow wow and even if the EA fails to convince them to reduce it he will list it at there guide price.
I buy and sell for a living, but won't get into a Spiel about my own personal qualifications for the sakes of an anonymous Internet discussion.
I know the EA will always still list it, it's still business when it's eventually sold at the end of the day. As you can see in my previous post, this is inherently part of the problem. EAs should be there to position it at a realistic price point based on market assessments, and often this is not done. You only have to scroll back through this thread to the €550k Churchtown Property to see a prime example of that.
There is not a one size fits all summation of the process of every Seller & EA Price setting. It is just an obvious part of the buying process that slows down sales that is particularly frustrating for buyers and in a market such as we have today, it will end up costing Sellers. As AWEC says above, "they've nothing to lose but time". But in the current circumstances, time is going to lose them EVEN MORE money.0 -
Pivot Eoin wrote: »I buy and sell for a living, but won't get into a Spiel about my own personal qualifications for the sakes of an anonymous Internet discussion.
I know the EA will always still list it, it's still business when it's eventually sold at the end of the day. As you can see in my previous post, this is inherently part of the problem. EAs should be there to position it at a realistic price point based on market assessments, and often this is not done. You only have to scroll back through this thread to the €550k Churchtown Property to see a prime example of that.
There is not a one size fits all summation of the process of every Seller & EA Price setting. It is just an obvious part of the buying process that slows down sales that is particularly frustrating for buyers and in a market such as we have today, it will end up costing Sellers. As AWEC says above, "they've nothing to lose but time". But in the current circumstances, time is going to lose them EVEN MORE money.
It will only end up costing sellers if they have to sell. A good few are equating this with 2008-2012. Then there was a lot of stressed sellers. There was completed estates for sale. There will not be the same surplus of houses this time
Tommy the taxi driver has not two houses at 110% mortgages this time. There is not the same type or quanitu of tax relief houses this time, neither have builders held back stock as prices were riding do strongly. Investors have more equity in there properties and you have less first time investors.
It's interesting that s large quantity of houses have been withdrawn from the market over the last 4-8 weeks. I suspect that many of these will not return to the market for a whileSlava Ukrainii
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Bass Reeves wrote: »It will only end up costing sellers if they have to sell. A good few are equating this with 2008-2012. Then there was a lot of stressed sellers. There was completed estates for sale. There will not be the same surplus of houses this time
Tommy the taxi driver has not two houses at 110% mortgages this time. There is not the same type or quanitu of tax relief houses this time, neither have builders held back stock as prices were riding do strongly. Investors have more equity in there properties and you have less first time investors.
It's interesting that s large quantity of houses have been withdrawn from the market over the last 4-8 weeks. I suspect that many of these will not return to the market for a while
I agree it's a different situation. I only used the big short scenario at the end, not the overriding theme for the causation of Price Drops.
However a 30% Unemployment rate is not going to disappear overnight. I feel the market I'm looking to buy in will be the least affected (turnkey 3/4 Beds in SCD), and I'd snap the hands off a 10% drop in values, but I'm not hoping or relying on it.
How many sellers are putting up their property with a "Let's see what happens" approach? Genuinely asking, because I do not know. But I do know that some people who want to sell are being delayed and hit financially due to unrealistic askings, and I think it is the job of the EA to address that in the current environment in the interest of both sellers and buyers.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 5898
I see a number of posts in the buying thread about mortgage protection insurance being pulled/declined. Anyone know if this an uptick or has it always been like this?0 -
Pivot Eoin wrote: »However a 30% Unemployment rate is not going to disappear overnight. I feel the market I'm looking to buy in will be the least affected (turnkey 3/4 Beds in SCD), and I'd snap the hands off a 10% drop in values, but I'm not hoping or relying on it.
30% unemployment rate?
The current rate is 5.4%.
You are including all those in receipt of COVID-19 payments, they are not all unemployed!0 -
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Bass Reeves wrote: »It will only end up costing sellers if they have to sell. A good few are equating this with 2008-2012. Then there was a lot of stressed sellers.
And with 30% unemployment, and the biggest depression in generations, you do not think there will be stressed sellers this time? How will they pay their mortgages?0
This discussion has been closed.
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