Property Market 2020

Pivot Eoin

GreeBo wrote: »

30% unemployment rate?
The current rate is 5.4%.

You are including all those in receipt of COVID-19 payments, they are not all unemployed!

Currently 30% of Ireland are not working. Hence 30% Unemployment rate.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0508/1137254-cso-unemployment-rate/

It is yet to be deciphered how many people will return to work after it. Hence why I said 30% Unemployment will not disappear overnight.

5 of my close mates have lost their jobs permanently alone, so I'd well believe it will be at 10-15% at least when this all finishes.

GreeBo

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Currently 30% of Ireland are not working. Hence 30% Unemployment rate.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0508/1137254-cso-unemployment-rate/

It is yet to be deciphered how many people will return to work after it. Hence why I said 30% Unemployment will not disappear overnight.

5 of my close mates have lost their jobs permanently alone, so I'd well believe it will be at 10-15% at least when this all finishes.

"The unemployment rate for April, as measured by the Covid-19 adjusted measure, jumped to a new record high of 28.2%,"

It includes those in receipt of the wage subsidy.
"not working" != "unemployed" at the moment.
People in receipt of the wage subsidy are still employed, the subsidy is designed to allow employers keep people on the books while the government covers some of the cost.

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

"The unemployment rate for April, as measured by the Covid-19 adjusted measure, jumped to a new record high of 28.2%,"

It includes those in receipt of the wage subsidy.
"not working" != "unemployed" at the moment.
People in receipt of the wage subsidy are still employed, the subsidy is designed to allow employers keep people on the books while the government covers some of the cost.

I would not be so sure of that.

The adjusted unemployment rate does not include 427,400 more workers on a wage subsidy scheme for impacted companies, where the state agreed in March to pay 70% of wages up to a maximum of €410 a week for an initial 12-week period.

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

I would not be so sure of that.

Hmm, it seems that they are inconsistent in what they include where.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/mue/inlrmue/

However, in recognition of the need to provide decision makers and the public with information relating to the impact of COVID-19, the Live Register release being issued tomorrow, Thursday April 2nd, 2020 will include:

• The Live Register Total;
• The Seasonally adjusted Live Register Total;
• Number of claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment;
• Number of claimants on the Revenue Temporary COVID-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme;
• Total of the Live Register plus claimants of the two foregoing COVID-19 related payments.

Anyway, the import point is

it is important that users view the traditional non-seasonally adjusted measure as the lower bound while the new COVID-19 Adjusted Measures of Unemployment is the upper bound for the true rate.

https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/labourmarket/monthlyunemployment/monthlyunemploymentandcovid-19adjustedestimatesmarch2020technicalnote/

28.2% is a worst case scenario & 5.4% is the best case, the reality will be somewhere in the middle.
Saying that 30% will not disappear overnight kind of implies that we will start from 30% and work our way slowly down. We dont know what number we will start from until we start.

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

Hmm, it seems that they are inconsistent in what they include where.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/mue/inlrmue/



Anyway, the import point is


https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/labourmarket/monthlyunemployment/monthlyunemploymentandcovid-19adjustedestimatesmarch2020technicalnote/

28.2% is a worst case scenario & 5.4% is the best case, the reality will be somewhere in the middle.
Saying that 30% will not disappear overnight kind of implies that we will start from 30% and work our way slowly down. We dont know what number we will start from until we start.

And saying the current rate is 5.4% kind of implies business as usual, nothing to see here.

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

And saying the current rate is 5.4% kind of implies business as usual, nothing to see here.

So we are agreed that until restrictions are lifted we have no idea whether 5.4 or 28.2 is the number we should be using when talking about unemployment impacting the property market?

Umaro

We know its definitely not 5.4%, and quite disingenuous to be calling it "the current rate".

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

So we are agreed that until restrictions are lifted we have no idea whether 5.4 or 28.2 is the number we should be using when talking about unemployment impacting the property market?

No, not it all.

If 28.2% is the official current estimate of the amount of people out of work pre restrictions + the number of people who have lost their job since restrictions it seems to be the obvious choice of number to be using when talking about unemployment impacting the property market.

Using any other number seems counterintuitive.

Using 5.4% seems batsh*t crazy.

awec

Maybe we could just agree that when this is all over the unemployment rate will be somewhere between 5% and 30%?

Hopefully a lot closer to 5 than 30.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Maybe we could just agree that when this is all over the unemployment rate will be somewhere between 5% and 30%?

Which to be fair to Pivot Eoin is exactly what he was saying when he posted "30% Unemployment rate is not going to disappear overnight"

Moving on from the headline unemployment figure, in terms of impact on property market I'd argue that number of people on the wage subsidy (i.e not included in 28%) are more relevant than the 5.4%.

Realistically not many of that 5.4% previously unemployed are likely to have as much impact as those who may well remain employed but the fact they received the subsidy might be a red flag for a mortgage application.

I think one thing we're all agreed on is the banks will pull up the drawbridge and a lot of those subsidy earners will probably have to wait 6 months to wash that out of their payslips.

That could be a fairly significant number of people who might have been planning to purchase this year.

Bass Reeves

addaword wrote: »

And with 30% unemployment, and the biggest depression in generations, you do not think there will be stressed sellers this time? How will they pay their mortgages?

Being unemployed is a 1-2 year phenonmen. Since the last recession we have another change that nobody is factoring in it called PIA.

combat14

interesting to see monthly rents down 2.1% in march the biggest monthly fall since 2009 .. 11 years .. with approx. 40% extra properties for rent in Dublin at the start of May will be interesting how far this long over due trend continues the next while .....

smurgen

combat14 wrote: »

interesting to see monthly rents down 2.1% in march the biggest monthly fall since 2009 .. 11 years .. with approx. 40% extra properties for rent in Dublin at the start of May will be interesting how far this long over due trend continues the next while .....

Wait til Q2 reporting.

Villa05

Twitter announce workers can WFH forever

Google re evaluating their real estate

The ducks are starting to line up

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Twitter announce workers can WFH forever

Google re evaluating their real estate

The ducks are starting to line up

This sounds like a big deal but Twitter is tiny in the tech world. Less than 5000 employees worldwide.

Can you throw up a source for your Google bit? Genuinely curious.

Pivot Eoin

schmittel wrote: »

Which to be fair to Pivot Eoin is exactly what he was saying when he posted "30% Unemployment rate is not going to disappear overnight"

Moving on from the headline unemployment figure, in terms of impact on property market I'd argue that number of people on the wage subsidy (i.e not included in 28%) are more relevant than the 5.4%.

Realistically not many of that 5.4% previously unemployed are likely to have as much impact as those who may well remain employed but the fact they received the subsidy might be a red flag for a mortgage application.

I think one thing we're all agreed on is the banks will pull up the drawbridge and a lot of those subsidy earners will probably have to wait 6 months to wash that out of their payslips.

That could be a fairly significant number of people who might have been planning to purchase this year.

From what I understand from talking to banks is that you will not need a fresh batch of 6 month payslips without COVID subsidies, only to be able to show that your income has returned to normal once it finishes, then you will only need 1 Subsidy free payslip to push ahead.

In terms of how long the subsidy scheme sticks about, that I don't know, but safe to assume it gets extended in some form or other for another 6 weeks.

GreeBo

awec wrote: »

Maybe we could just agree that when this is all over the unemployment rate will be somewhere between 5% and 30%?

Hopefully a lot closer to 5 than 30.

Which is pretty much exactly what I said!

GreeBo wrote: »

So we are agreed that until restrictions are lifted we have no idea whether 5.4 or 28.2 is the number we should be using when talking about unemployment impacting the property market?

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

Which to be fair to Pivot Eoin is exactly what he was saying when he posted "30% Unemployment rate is not going to disappear overnight"

Moving on from the headline unemployment figure, in terms of impact on property market I'd argue that number of people on the wage subsidy (i.e not included in 28%) are more relevant than the 5.4%.

Realistically not many of that 5.4% previously unemployed are likely to have as much impact as those who may well remain employed but the fact they received the subsidy might be a red flag for a mortgage application.

I think one thing we're all agreed on is the banks will pull up the drawbridge and a lot of those subsidy earners will probably have to wait 6 months to wash that out of their payslips.

That could be a fairly significant number of people who might have been planning to purchase this year.

Why would it be a red flag?
Are you expecting another global pandemic?

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

Which is pretty much exactly what I said!

Totally expected.

Pivot Eoin

GreeBo wrote: »

Why would it be a red flag?
Are you expecting another global pandemic?

It's not all doom and gloom. KBC are approving mortgages without exemptions even if you have the COVID Subsidy scheme if a couple's joint earnings are over €100k.

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

No, not it all.

If 28.2% is the official current estimate of the amount of people out of work pre restrictions + the number of people who have lost their job since restrictions it seems to be the obvious choice of number to be using when talking about unemployment impacting the property market.

Using any other number seems counterintuitive.

Using 5.4% seems batsh*t crazy.

Neither you nor I nor in fact anyone has any idea how many people who are unemployed directly due to covid 19 will quickly return to work when restrictions pass.
Itv won't drop to 5.4 overnight or possibly for 12+ months, but equally it's not going to just sit at 28% either. Unless you believe all those business are gone forever and nothing will fill those gaps?

Umaro wrote: »

We know its definitely not 5.4%, and quite disingenuous to be calling it "the current rate".

You will have to take that up with the CSO I'm afraid.

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

Totally expected.

I previously, politely asked you to engage in an adult manner, it seems however that you cannot.

GreeBo

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

It's not all doom and gloom. KBC are approving mortgages without exemptions even if you have the COVID Subsidy scheme if a couple's joint earnings are over €100k.

And I don't see why any bank wouldn't...it would be a bit rich to use an unprecedented in our lifetime global pandemic against someone's employment record once they are back in employment.

Pivot Eoin

GreeBo wrote: »

And I don't see why any bank wouldn't...it would be a bit rich to use an unprecedented in our lifetime global pandemic against someone's employment record once they are back in employment.

Depends on the bank. Have it from someone inside ulster Bank that they've been told to basically stop lending in every scenario possible for 2020, then when 2021 hits to lend to everyone under the sun, and I quote, staff were told come January: "If they're looking to borrow €400k, push them for €450k."

ebayissues

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Depends on the bank. Have it from someone inside ulster Bank that they've been told to basically stop lending in every scenario possible for 2020, then when 2021 hits to lend to everyone under the sun, and I quote, staff were told come January: "If they're looking to borrow €400k, push them for €450k."

Thats irresponsible.. Hopefully it doesn't happen.

Villa05

awec wrote:

Can you throw up a source for your Google bit? Genuinely curious.

Just channel flicking and it was mentioned on CNBC program fast money they were discussing threats to commercial property
Tuesday 12/05/20 10pm to 11pm

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

Why would it be a red flag? Are you expecting another global pandemic?

It's a red flag against your employer. Specific conditions must be met for receipt of the payment, they include that your business must have been significantly impacted in terms of sales/profit

Such an impact could lead to job losses in the future

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

Neither you nor I nor in fact anyone has any idea how many people who are unemployed directly due to covid 19 will quickly return to work when restrictions pass.
Itv won't drop to 5.4 overnight or possibly for 12+ months, but equally it's not going to just sit at 28% either. Unless you believe all those business are gone forever and nothing will fill those gaps?

I can't believe I keep rising but here we go again. Pay particular attention to your point in bold. That unemployment won't drop to 5.4 overnight nor sit at 28% for ever. And the points in bold below.

To recap what lead up to that bolded comment. A few hours ago Pivot Eoin makes a perfectly reasonable comment:

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

However a 30% Unemployment rate is not going to disappear overnight.

He is lampooned by you who claims unemployment is in fact 5.4%

GreeBo wrote: »

30% unemployment rate?
The current rate is 5.4%.

You are including all those in receipt of COVID-19 payments, they are not all unemployed!

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Currently 30% of Ireland are not working. Hence 30% Unemployment rate.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0508/1137254-cso-unemployment-rate/

It is yet to be deciphered how many people will return to work after it. Hence why I said 30% Unemployment will not disappear overnight.

5 of my close mates have lost their jobs permanently alone, so I'd well believe it will be at 10-15% at least when this all finishes.

He gives a perfectly reasonable response including a source for his figures, saying who knows how many will return and pointing out that is exactly why he said it will not disappear overnight.

On top of all that he says he believes it will be 10-15% in the end - i.e somewhere between 5.4% and 28%!!!!

GreeBo wrote: »

"The unemployment rate for April, as measured by the Covid-19 adjusted measure, jumped to a new record high of 28.2%,"

It includes those in receipt of the wage subsidy.
"not working" != "unemployed" at the moment.
People in receipt of the wage subsidy are still employed, the subsidy is designed to allow employers keep people on the books while the government covers some of the cost.

schmittel wrote: »

I would not be so sure of that......RTE: The adjusted unemployment rate does not include 427,400 more workers on a wage subsidy scheme for impacted companies, where the state agreed in March to pay 70% of wages up to a maximum of €410 a week for an initial 12-week period.

GreeBo wrote: »

Hmm, it seems that they are inconsistent in what they include where.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/mue/inlrmue/

Anyway, the import point is

https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/labourmarket/monthlyunemployment/monthlyunemploymentandcovid-19adjustedestimatesmarch2020technicalnote/

28.2% is a worst case scenario & 5.4% is the best case, the reality will be somewhere in the middle.
Saying that 30% will not disappear overnight kind of implies that we will start from 30% and work our way slowly down. We dont know what number we will start from until we start.

schmittel wrote: »

And saying the current rate is 5.4% kind of implies business as usual, nothing to see here.

GreeBo wrote: »

So we are agreed that until restrictions are lifted we have no idea whether 5.4 or 28.2 is the number we should be using when talking about unemployment impacting the property market?

awec wrote: »

Maybe we could just agree that when this is all over the unemployment rate will be somewhere between 5% and 30%?

Hopefully a lot closer to 5 than 30.

GreeBo wrote: »

Which is pretty much exactly what I said!

Are you a troll?

GreeBo

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Depends on the bank. Have it from someone inside ulster Bank that they've been told to basically stop lending in every scenario possible for 2020, then when 2021 hits to lend to everyone under the sun, and I quote, staff were told come January: "If they're looking to borrow €400k, push them for €450k."

Stopping all lending is "fine", but discriminating against someone who is in continued full-time employment because their job/industry was impacted by a global pandemic seems like it would be detrimental to your banks business.

If this was a banks stance, when could they logically change it? The same industries would run into issue for the next pandemic, so those people don't get to ever buy houses now? Seems like that wouldn't go down well.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/couples-mortgage-blocked-over-covid-19-wage-subsidy-996027.html

Empty_Space

More and more people set to be working from home.
Many more people set to lose jobs.
Many more set for wage reductions.
Tourist industry set to be hit, greatly effecting Airbnb.
Years of inflated prices led by the debt culture and media lies about to turn.
Mortgages about to become harder to get.
Investors soon to start selling in droves.
Massive deflation on the horizon.
Big companies potential to leave once tax benefits reigned in.
Some businesses set for bankruptcy.


I could go on and on.

But hey, prices won't drop due to supply. People are deluded.