Property Market 2020

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

It's a red flag against your employer. Specific conditions must be met for receipt of the payment, they include that your business must have been significantly impacted in terms of sales/profit

Such an impact could lead to job losses in the future

So these 450,000 people no longer qualify for a mortgage in Ireland?

At what point in the future do you decide they won't lead to job losses? What would this decision be based on?
I would have thought your employer keeping you on under the scheme was a very positive sign, compared to them making you redundant?

hometruths

Empty_Space wrote: »

More and more people set to be working from home.
Many more people set to lose jobs.
Many more set for wage reductions.
Tourist industry set to be hit, greatly effecting Airbnb.
Years of inflated prices led by the debt culture and media lies about to turn.
Mortgages about to become harder to get.
Investors soon to start selling in droves.
Massive deflation on the horizon.
Big companies potential to leave once tax benefits reigned in.
Some businesses set for bankruptcy.


I could go on and on.

But hey, prices won't drop due to supply. People are deluded.

don’t forget rising rents! That will give house prices a shot in the arm. Buy now.

bdmc5

Empty_Space wrote: »

More and more people set to be working from home.
Many more people set to lose jobs.
Many more set for wage reductions.
Tourist industry set to be hit, greatly effecting Airbnb.
Years of inflated prices led by the debt culture and media lies about to turn.
Mortgages about to become harder to get.
Investors soon to start selling in droves.
Massive deflation on the horizon.
Big companies potential to leave once tax benefits reigned in.
Some businesses set for bankruptcy.


I could go on and on.

But hey, prices won't drop due to supply. People are deluded.

Yes you could go on making speculative comments but you don’t have a clue like the rest of us. Everything you list could happen but your vested interest is clouding you view If you think supply is the only factor that could prevent house price drops. There is also demand and demand that will continue to build over these months as buyers hold out for clearer view but many must get on with their life’s than wait for years for a drop in prices .

There are thousands of people working from home earning full salaries and savings more than usual with reduced transport costs , childcare etc saving for mortgages. We just switched to TSB after 2 years with BOI to avail of another 2 percent cashback and TSB couldn’t have easier process to complete. People have money and banks are willing to lend and there a chronic shortage of quality housing so it’s nowhere as straightforward I don’t think as you make out.

I wouldn’t envy any buyer or seller now, good luck to all in the process.

MrMusician18

ebayissues wrote: »

Thats irresponsible.. Hopefully it doesn't happen.

Thankfully the CB rules will limit such behavior.

MrMusician18

bdmc5 wrote: »

Yes you could go on making speculative comments but you don’t have a clue like the rest of us. Everything you list could happen but your vested interest is clouding you view If you think supply is the only factor that could prevent house price drops. There is also demand and demand that will continue to build over these months as buyers hold out for clearer view but many must get on with their life’s than wait for years for a drop in prices .

There are thousands of people working from home earning full salaries and savings more than usual with reduced transport costs , childcare etc saving for mortgages. We just switched to TSB after 2 years with BOI to avail of another 2 percent cashback and TSB couldn’t have easier process to complete. People have money and banks are willing to lend and there a chronic shortage of quality housing so it’s nowhere as straightforward I don’t think as you make out.

I wouldn’t envy any buyer or seller now, good luck to all in the process.

Half the workforce is currently receiving a payment in some form or another due to covid. Of household, the vast majority will be touched negatively by the pandemic, the winners with the reduced transport and childcare costs will be the lucky minority.

Assetbacked

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Depends on the bank. Have it from someone inside ulster Bank that they've been told to basically stop lending in every scenario possible for 2020, then when 2021 hits to lend to everyone under the sun, and I quote, staff were told come January: "If they're looking to borrow €400k, push them for €450k."

Fill your boots people!

lomb

Assetbacked wrote: »

Fill your boots people!

Probably bollocks to lift their spirits . Come 2021 if the banks weren't lending in 2020 the house will be going down in price sharply. They won't want to catch a falling knife and then there's a second wave of infection coming over the winter which could be worse than the first wave..

listermint

Villa05 wrote: »

Just channel flicking and it was mentioned on CNBC program fast money they were discussing threats to commercial property
Tuesday 12/05/20 10pm to 11pm

Google have hundreds of millions tied up in property they won't be openly re-evaluating anything.

An off the cuff remark on over of these fast money programs does not a fact make.

Note Google product offerings are vastly different than twitter's and in many cases full remote work won't suit the development process

Knex*

Hoffmans wrote: »

Some crazy prices still being sought for property,
Uk is already down 10%

Jumped on a virtual viewing yesterday, for the craic more than anything. House near Ashtown and Phoenix Park. I'd say its about 100k overpriced even at pre-covid prices.

Obviously hard to confirm it with a virutal viewing, but I had my suspicions beforehand and the viewing only consolidated that.

The amount of ****e the Estate Agent came out with in the 20 minutes was hilarious too, I might add.

Pivot Eoin

Knex. wrote: »

Jumped on a virtual viewing yesterday, for the craic more than anything. House near Ashtown and Phoenix Park. I'd say its about 100k overpriced even at pre-covid prices.

Obviously hard to confirm it with a virutal viewing, but I had my suspicions beforehand and the viewing only consolidated that.

The amount of ****e the Estate Agent came out with in the 20 minutes was hilarious too, I might add.

Ha I did my first yesterday also, such bolox. Could even see the person doing the video (I think it was the EA himself) purposefully avoiding a broken down fencing panel that left a 2m wide gap between the neighbouring garden.

The amount of fluff they were talking too. But in fairness to them, they didn't necessarily lie about anything, just avoiding some of the hard truths. Also said current bid was €50k under asking, it's not worth much more if any tbh. Was a 3Bed SD in DunLaoghaire area.

Snow Garden

lomb wrote: »

Probably bollocks to lift their spirits . Come 2021 if the banks weren't lending in 2020 the house will be going down in price sharply. They won't want to catch a falling knife and then there's a second wave of infection coming over the winter which could be worse than the first wave..

That's a great phrase. I expect mortgage lending conditions to be especially tricky in 2021 as the full economic impact of this virus becomes apparent.

dor843088

Knex. wrote: »

Jumped on a virtual viewing yesterday, for the craic more than anything. House near Ashtown and Phoenix Park. I'd say its about 100k overpriced even at pre-covid prices.

Obviously hard to confirm it with a virutal viewing, but I had my suspicions beforehand and the viewing only consolidated that.

The amount of ****e the Estate Agent came out with in the 20 minutes was hilarious too, I might add.

Come on , we all need a bit of cheering up. Give us a few of his lines.

senordingdong

Knex. wrote: »

Jumped on a virtual viewing yesterday, for the craic more than anything. House near Ashtown and Phoenix Park. I'd say its about 100k overpriced even at pre-covid prices.

Obviously hard to confirm it with a virutal viewing, but I had my suspicions beforehand and the viewing only consolidated that.

The amount of ****e the Estate Agent came out with in the 20 minutes was hilarious too, I might add.

But the problem here I think is that someone will pay that!

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

So these 450,000 people no longer qualify for a mortgage in Ireland?

For 6 months after it ends while it is on their wage slip

GreeBo wrote:

At what point in the future do you decide they won't lead to job losses? What would this decision be based on? I would have thought your employer keeping you on under the scheme was a very positive sign, compared to them making you redundant?

Financial decisions have to weigh up the positive with the negative

listermint wrote:

Google have hundreds of millions tied up in property they won't be openly re-evaluating anything.

They were critical in the lack of action on housing supply in Dublin.

listermint wrote:

Note Google product offerings are vastly different than twitter's and in many cases full remote work won't suit the development process

The trend is your friend, technology and I. T. Will benefit greatly from WFH

GreeBo

senordingdong wrote: »

But the problem here I think is that someone will pay that!

If someone is willing to pay that why is that "a problem"? Isnt that a free market in operation?

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Ha I did my first yesterday also, such bolox. Could even see the person doing the video (I think it was the EA himself) purposefully avoiding a broken down fencing panel that left a 2m wide gap between the neighbouring garden.

The amount of fluff they were talking too. But in fairness to them, they didn't necessarily lie about anything, just avoiding some of the hard truths. Also said current bid was €50k under asking, it's not worth much more if any tbh. Was a 3Bed SD in DunLaoghaire area.

If you are expecting an EA to draw your attention to issues with a property then you are always going to be disappointed. Same for anyone trying to sell anything tbh.

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

For 6 months after it ends while it is on their wage slip

But what is the logic behind that?

Financial decisions have to weigh up the positive with the negative

I'm not sure what that actually means in related to the question tbh!

The trend is your friend, technology and I. T. Will benefit greatly from WFH

Thats a massive generalization of an industry.
Almost equivalent to my mom asking me to fix her laptop because "you work in IT"

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

The trend is your friend, technology and I. T. Will benefit greatly from WFH

you're making a very sweeping generalization. Some people like working from home, some people don't. Many many people like social interaction in the workplace. Google continues to acquire prime office space in Dublin. WFH has benefits as an option but it is not a solution that will benefit all. People are sociable by nature. Covid will not change that medium to long term.

Out of interest, why do you think Tech and IT will benefit greatly from WFH?

senordingdong

GreeBo wrote: »

If someone is willing to pay that why is that "a problem"? Isnt that a free market in operation?.

Because people are being swindled and are accidentally artificially inflating the bubble.

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

you're making a very sweeping generalization. Some people like working from home, some people don't. Many many people like social interaction in the workplace. Google continues to acquire prime office space in Dublin. WFH has benefits as an option but it is not a solution that will benefit all. People are sociable by nature. Covid will not change that medium to long term.

Out of interest, why do you think Tech and IT will benefit greatly from WFH?

In reality lots of Tech/IT did WFH as a matter of course, many were expected to be on call so had to be able to dial in over VPN etc. Even when on holidays I was expected to check in every couple of days if we had a big upgrade or important presentation coming up so it has been something I have had to live with. There are upsides to this as well as I was able to work abroad when needed (but the pros and cons of this is a whole other matter and not something for this thread ).

There was people coming to our office who didn't need to (or at best could come in one day a week) who lived primarily quite a distance from Dublin. With being a minimum of 6 months of enforced WFH they have already indicated that they will not be coming back into the office and leaving Dublin.

GreeBo

senordingdong wrote: »

Because people are being swindled and are accidentally artificially inflating the bubble.

In your opinion they are being swindled. In their opinion they are paying what they are happy with to get a house that they are happy with.

Its neither accidental nor artificial, its how value is determined in pretty much any market. i.e. what someone else is willing to pay for it.

GreeBo

Ozark707 wrote: »

In reality lots of Tech/IT did WFH as a matter of course, many were expected to be on call so had to be able to dial in over VPN etc. Even when on holidays I was expected to check in every couple of days if we had a big upgrade or important presentation coming up so it has been something I have had to live with. There are upsides to this as well as I was able to work abroad when needed (but the pros and cons of this is a whole other matter and not something for this thread ).

There was people coming to our office who didn't need to (or at best could come in one day a week) who lived primarily quite a distance from Dublin. With being a minimum of 6 months of enforced WFH they have already indicated that they will not be coming back into the office and leaving Dublin.

Lots do and equally lots dont.

Some people think of IT as a bunch of guys working away on computers.
This ignores, finance, hr, tplm, operations, sales, marketing, communications, etc, etc.

Even developers are impacts, have you tried a design session via zoom yet?

but we are getting off topic.
Suffice to say the world isnt going to suddenly all work from home tomorrow, there are many roles in many industries where it is not at all beneficial and in fact detrimental.

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

Lots do and equally lots dont.

Some people think of IT as a bunch of guys working away on computers.
This ignores, finance, hr, tplm, operations, sales, marketing, communications, etc, etc.
.

And those in finance, sales, marketing are a bunch a guys working with the office abacus?

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

For 6 months after it ends while it is on their wage slip




Financial decisions have to weigh up the positive with the negative




They were critical in the lack of action on housing supply in Dublin.



The trend is your friend, technology and I. T. Will benefit greatly from WFH

Ozark707 wrote: »

In reality lots of Tech/IT did WFH as a matter of course, many were expected to be on call so had to be able to dial in over VPN etc. Even when on holidays I was expected to check in every couple of days if we had a big upgrade or important presentation coming up so it has been something I have had to live with. There are upsides to this as well as I was able to work abroad when needed (but the pros and cons of this is a whole other matter and not something for this thread ).

There was people coming to our office who didn't need to (or at best could come in one day a week) who lived primarily quite a distance from Dublin. With being a minimum of 6 months of enforced WFH they have already indicated that they will not be coming back into the office and leaving Dublin.

fully agree with you. It suits people, whether full or part time, but doesn't suit many more. Some posters seem to think it is the end of offices, which is just bo*lox. It is all about giving people options.

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

you're making a very sweeping generalization. Some people like working from home, some people don't. Many many people like social interaction in the workplace. Google continues to acquire prime office space in Dublin. WFH has benefits as an option but it is not a solution that will benefit all. People are sociable by nature. Covid will not change that medium to long term.

Out of interest, why do you think Tech and IT will benefit greatly from WFH?

I think Google and Facebook have already said they will not bring back resources until 2021.

I think some IT workers will ask for fulltime office desks but the remainder will sign up for hot-desking where they will come into the office for 1, 2 or 3 days a week and not require a permanent desk. Some will ask to WFH fulltime too.

WFH will reduce the office capacity needed. All IT companies will offer WFH or they will lose employees.

awec

GreeBo wrote: »

Lots do and equally lots dont.

Some people think of IT as a bunch of guys working away on computers.
This ignores, finance, hr, tplm, operations, sales, marketing, communications, etc, etc.

Even developers are impacts, have you tried a design session via zoom yet?

but we are getting off topic.
Suffice to say the world isnt going to suddenly all work from home tomorrow, there are many roles in many industries where it is not at all beneficial and in fact detrimental.

These are actually the sort of roles that suit a remote work / hot desk setup. The equipment requirements are low, so you don't need to allocate each employee a desk.

hometruths

Nobody thinks that everybody who is currently WFHing is never going back to the office when things restart.

But the genie is out of the bottle now and I see huge changes resulting from WFH, and coming down the tracks quite quickly i.e within 18 months.

Any job that is currently capable of being performed solely with a computer, internet connection and a phone will be impacted.

That's an enormous amount of jobs if you think about it.

GreeBo

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think Google and Facebook have already said they will not bring back resources until 2021.

I think some IT workers will ask for fulltime office desks but the remainder will sign up for hot-desking where they will come into the office for 1, 2 or 3 days a week and not require a permanent desk. Some will ask to WFH fulltime too.

WFH will reduce the office capacity needed. All IT companies will offer WFH or they will lose employees.

They (like my own company) are doing this due to the overheads and logistics in trying to enable social distancing in an office space, its not becuase they are embracing WFH.

GreeBo

awec wrote: »

These are actually the sort of roles that suit a remote work / hot desk setup. The equipment requirements are low, so you don't need to allocate each employee a desk.

They may suit hot desking, but I don't see how that impacts the property market?
(Unless you think that hot desking means all these people move house?)

It also completely ignores the fact that these people are 1 person in a family.
Even if every single IT worker could work from home, they have partners and families that would prevent them from just moving to longford.


Working from home is about much more than just equipment.

paulie13

Another thing to consider here is that there's a lot that keeps people (such as myself) in Dublin other than work. Going to music gigs, for example. Moving out of Dublin would save money on a house, there's no doubt about that, but what about individual's out-of-work interests. Dublin is still a huge draw.

GreeBo

Even a job that 100% uses a computer (are there even office jobs that dont use one?) doesnt necessarily mean working from home.

A team of software developers, arguably the flexible group still have daily team meetings, stand ups, design sessions etc that are a royal pain in the ass when working from home.
Talking to other teams when you have to arrange a meeting are much more disruptive than walking over to someone or chatting to them in a canteen for 5 minutes.

Not the mention the massive amount of knowledge that is shared by simply being in the same location as other employees and overhearing things.

Its very simplistic to think that having a computer and broadband means you can work effectively from home.