Property Market 2020

Snow Garden

paulie13 wrote: »

Another thing to consider here is that there's a lot that keeps people (such as myself) in Dublin other than work. Going to music gigs, for example. Moving out of Dublin would save money on a house, there's no doubt about that, but what about individual's out-of-work interests. Dublin is still a huge draw.

I would imagine there are a lot more cons than pros. Especially for young families.
And Dublin certainly will not improve during a deep recession. The traffic will.

hometruths

paulie13 wrote: »

Another thing to consider here is that there's a lot that keeps people (such as myself) in Dublin other than work. Going to music gigs, for example. Moving out of Dublin would save money on a house, there's no doubt about that, but what about individual's out-of-work interests. Dublin is still a huge draw.

What kind of age profile are you if you don't mind me asking?

paulie13

schmittel wrote: »

What kind of age profile are you if you don't mind me asking?

Late-30s

hometruths

paulie13 wrote: »

Late-30s

Kids or planning in the future?

awec

paulie13 wrote: »

Another thing to consider here is that there's a lot that keeps people (such as myself) in Dublin other than work. Going to music gigs, for example. Moving out of Dublin would save money on a house, there's no doubt about that, but what about individual's out-of-work interests. Dublin is still a huge draw.

Yes, this is definitely true. Many people like the urban lifestyle, and are happy to pay the premium to have it.

One of the reasons that Dublin ended up so top-heavy with new jobs in the first places was because companies set up there as that's where the employees they wanted to hire wanted to live.

So while it's true that people came to Dublin for jobs, it's also true that jobs came to Dublin for people.

mcbert

GreeBo wrote: »

Even a job that 100% uses a computer (are there even office jobs that dont use one?) doesnt necessarily mean working from home.

A team of software developers, arguably the flexible group still have daily team meetings, stand ups, design sessions etc that are a royal pain in the ass when working from home.
Talking to other teams when you have to arrange a meeting are much more disruptive than walking over to someone or chatting to them in a canteen for 5 minutes.

Not the mention the massive amount of knowledge that is shared by simply being in the same location as other employees and overhearing things.

Its very simplistic to think that having a computer and broadband means you can work effectively from home.

I disagree that they are a pain in the ass. Many companies have been doing all those things you listed - fully remote - for some time, and it can work well. Such companies are not working less efficiently. They would claim the opposite is true in fact.

awec

GreeBo wrote: »

They may suit hot desking, but I don't see how that impacts the property market?
(Unless you think that hot desking means all these people move house?)

It also completely ignores the fact that these people are 1 person in a family.
Even if every single IT worker could work from home, they have partners and families that would prevent them from just moving to longford.


Working from home is about much more than just equipment.

The inference is that the HR worker, whose company has moved to hot-desking, who currently rents in Dundrum because he has to commute to town 5 days a week will suddenly find himself only having to go into the office once a week, and so is willing to commute from somewhere like Navan for that one day.

There will be people like this. May not be widespread but it'll be a choice that some make.

This would mean lower demand in Dublin and higher demand in Navan for example.

Snow Garden

GreeBo wrote: »

They (like my own company) are doing this due to the overheads and logistics in trying to enable social distancing in an office space, its not becuase they are embracing WFH.

I know one IT company that was doing this (hot-desking) long before Covid19 came along.
They were doing so because they were reluctant to lease more expensive office space and their employees were asking for more WFH.
It's the future now for sure.

It will be very very difficult to drag resources back to earlier mornings, maddening traffic, packed public transport etc etc

Hubertj

awec wrote: »

The inference is that the HR worker, whose company has moved to hot-desking, who currently rents in Dundrum because he has to commute to town 5 days a week will suddenly find himself only having to go into the office once a week, and so is willing to commute from somewhere like Navan for that one day.

There will be people like this. May not be widespread but it'll be a choice that some make.

This would mean lower demand in Dublin and higher demand in Navan for example.

or with lower rents someone living in Navan will choose to live in Dundrum.....

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Yes, this is definitely true. Many people like the urban lifestyle, and are happy to pay the premium to have it.

One of the reasons that Dublin ended up so top-heavy with new jobs in the first places was because companies set up there as that's where the employees they wanted to hire wanted to live.

So while it's true that people came to Dublin for jobs, it's also true that jobs came to Dublin for people.

This is very true, particularly for the tech Google, Facebook etc. A big part of the brand is the working culture, games rooms in the trendy office, urban hipsters etc.

And I think these sort of companies will always maintain that, whilst allowing those who wish to WFH in Ballygoarseways if they want.

But over 70% of non finance jobs in Ireland are in SMEs. They don't have chrome canteens with smashed avocado because they have enough to worry about with the rents and rates that they are paying.

Google and Facebook saying sure no problem work from home until 2021 will grab headlines now. But it is in the SME sector where the dramatic changes will be seen over the next few years.

How will it affect property?

Rents and sales prices will fall in Dublin. Whilst Dublin will always be at a premium the differential between Dublin and the rest of the country will narrow.

Billythekid19

It looks like estate agents are now trying to market houses with WFH in mind, definitely one of the most interesting angles taken by an EA during the pandemic! https://www.yaycork.ie/planning-a-move-here-are-3-lockdown-lessons-that-house-hunters-can-learn-from/

GreeBo

awec wrote: »

The inference is that the HR worker, whose company has moved to hot-desking, who currently rents in Dundrum because he has to commute to town 5 days a week will suddenly find himself only having to go into the office once a week, and so is willing to commute from somewhere like Navan for that one day.

There will be people like this. May not be widespread but it'll be a choice that some make.

This would mean lower demand in Dublin and higher demand in Navan for example.

What about the HR workers partner who works somewhere where WFH isnt appropriate or permitted?
That completely discounts the ability of that HR worked to move out of Dublin. (and thats before family commitments and preferences etc are brought into it)

GreeBo

Snow Garden wrote: »

I know one IT company that was doing this (hot-desking) long before Covid19 came along.
They were doing so because they were reluctant to lease more expensive office space and their employees were asking for more WFH.
It's the future now for sure.

It will be very very difficult to drag resources back to earlier mornings, maddening traffic, packed public transport etc etc

You can't possibly make that statement though. You have nothing to base it on other than the fact that at the moment people are being forced to work from home.

It wont be difficult if your employer says "come in or you are fired"

FWIW I worked in a company that hotdesked about 10 years ago, with multiple employees originally from outside of Dublin between 20-30 years old and none of them moved out of Dublin due to hot desking.

I think the idea that a large number of people are happy to give up the social aspect of working in an office (completely ignoring the other work impacts) is much smaller than a lot of people on here are expecting.

mcbert

GreeBo wrote: »

What about the HR workers partner who works somewhere where WFH isnt appropriate or permitted?
That completely discounts the ability of that HR worked to move out of Dublin. (and thats before family commitments and preferences etc are brought into it)

Completely discounts a move out of dublin? No it doesnt. Moving out of Dublin is very difficult if both cant WFH, but if one can and one cant, it still opens up the possibility of moving - only one needs to find a new job. One still can pay bills while the transition happens. Thats exactly what we did two years ago - moved west.

cnocbui

Billythekid19 wrote: »

It looks like estate agents are now trying to market houses with WFH in mind, definitely one of the most interesting angles taken by an EA during the pandemic! https://www.yaycork.ie/planning-a-move-here-are-3-lockdown-lessons-that-house-hunters-can-learn-from/

When I put my property on the market I will make sure the EA emphasises the 1 GBps FTTH connection as ideal for large, data hungry families and for those WFH. Don't think they would miss the potential anyway.

GreeBo

mcbert wrote: »

Completely discounts a move out of dublin? No it doesnt. Moving out of Dublin is very difficult if both cant WFH, but if one can and one cant, it still opens up the possibility of moving - only one needs to find a new job. One still can pay bills while the transition happens. Thats exactly what we did two years ago - moved west.

It wouldn't seem like a great time to be looking for a job outside of Dublin to me, assuming your industry even exists outside of Dublin.

Also seems like it would make getting a mortgage complicated, only having one income.

cnocbui

Twitter have said they will make WFH permanent.

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

It wouldn't seem like a great time to be looking for a job outside of Dublin to me, assuming your industry even exists outside of Dublin.

Also seems like it would make getting a mortgage complicated, only having one income.

Or if you're not paying those €2k a month creche fees, you might find it easier to get a mortgage for half the amount you would need in Dublin.

Couples would have more disposable income and need to borrow less.

Does it still seem complicated?

smurgen

GreeBo wrote: »

You can't possibly make that statement though. You have nothing to base it on other than the fact that at the moment people are being forced to work from home.

It wont be difficult if your employer says "come in or you are fired"

FWIW I worked in a company that hotdesked about 10 years ago, with multiple employees originally from outside of Dublin between 20-30 years old and none of them moved out of Dublin due to hot desking.

I think the idea that a large number of people are happy to give up the social aspect of working in an office (completely ignoring the other work impacts) is much smaller than a lot of people on here are expecting.

You have nothing to base your statements on.
There's alot of us currently working from home. Our company is talking about it long term now. We were also due to move to a larger building last September it was put on hold til march and just today it's been shelved indefinitely.

MrMusician18

In a friends office they recently had jobs going, before covid. Impossible to fill unless they were willing to allow new recruits to work from one of their regional offices. Consequently most positions went unfilled I think he told me.

As I said before, the we can look to decentralisation to get a flavour. Young people U30s won't leave Dublin, those between 30-40 will embrace the opportunity to leave the city.
Those over 40 will also embrace WFH but will not leave the city since they will already have settled and will not want to move their children from school and uproot their lives.

We may well though see a sharp fall in commercial rents as they move to hot dealing rather than permanent desks for staff.

GreeBo

smurgen wrote: »

You have nothing to base your statements on.
There's alot of us currently working from home. Our company is talking about it long term now. We were also due to move to a larger building last September it was put on hold til march and just today it's been shelved indefinitely.

My office and my wifes have been working from home since the very beginning so I'm one of the "us" working from home.

I'm basing it on experience the and fact that there are no cultures of mass working from home in any countries that I'm aware of.

Was it shelved because everyone is going to be working from home from now on, or because of the financial implications covid-19 will have on the economy and your company?

paulie13

schmittel wrote: »

Kids or planning in the future?

Kids in the future all going to plan, but still have every intention of maintaining some level of social life, however limited that may be.

Nika Bolokov

I think there probably will be a WFH boost to prices in some rural scenic areas but kips like Navan, Athy, Arklow etc where people moved too because they needed a cheaper house commutable to Dublin might not see a boost, if anything a drop, as the proximity to Dublin doesn't matter now. Mullingar was never sexy.

hometruths

Re WFH property impact, demand for types of property in Dublin will fall too.

The young city dwellers are going to be keen on apartments/duplexes/mews etc in Dublin city centre and surrounds.

Rents and sales prices for these will fall a lot less relative to the 3 bed houses in the suburbs of SCD - because the young family buyers that are now competing in this market will be looking for more space and value further afield.

For example - if you are a WFH couple with kids are you going to go for this:



3 Bed 1 bath 94 sq m semi d 1960s bungalow in Dun Laoghaire for €475,000

or this:



4 bed 4 bath 223 sq m 2000s detached in Wexford town for €365,000

Sure that kind of choice is unlikely to be widely practical to buyers in 3 months time, but what about in 3 years time? And what about 30 years time (the amount of time you'll be paying for the house.)

The problem will be compounded by an oversupply coming on stream at the same time as demand drops.

If I was looking for my first family home in Dublin right now, I'd be very wary of the certainty with which some people say property is a one way bet, in 30 years you'll be laughing.

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

Twitter have said they will make WFH permanent.

i suspect twitter are going to have bigger challenges than wfh over the coming years...

hometruths

paulie13 wrote: »

Kids in the future all going to plan, but still have every intention of maintaining some level of social life, however limited that may be.

Fair enough, all I can say is having lived in cities through my 20s and half of 30s, which I loved, nothing would take me back now I have 2 young kids.

My social life is different for sure, but it is still active.

Ursabear

The company I work for is talking about possibly bringing in a high level of WFH after this too (the rumour mill has it) . My industry has always had about 15- 20 percent remote workers .We are in late 30s and were looking to buy as soon as some personal matters get sorted . We are now going to see how WFH pans out as most of our friend groups have kids and go out less so we wouldn't mind travelling to meet them once and a while. Lived socialising in town when I was younger, now I just would love a house with nice views and space , rather then a poky place.

hometruths

Incidentally, whilst I was looking at examples for the above SCD & Wexford post I saw what I think will turn out to be a very interesting bellwether property sale:



3 Northumberland Park, Dun Laoghaire, Co. Dublin - €595,000

Interesting because 1 Northumberland Park sold in 2017 for €545k and no 4 in 2018 for €565k.

If this sells this year I think it will be a good example of the cookie cutters being priced at the margin I was talking about a few pages back.

If it makes over €550k within the next 12 months I will eat my words and admit I was overly bearish on property.

Pivot Eoin

Villa05 wrote: »

For 6 months after it ends while it is on their wage slip

This isn't true. Have spoke with numerous banks about it.

Captainsatnav

https://www.auctioneera.ie/house-prices-ireland-post-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR3CuHM4cBB9HT2vVKJjtXDq43L5zxKZgnZYZI6V4bVAMQavpUvozcj0jcI