Property Market 2020

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Well it certainly contradicts it.

I am beginning to realise that nothing disproves what GreeBo says.

so there are now 3 things certain in life? death, taxes and.......

SozBbz

schmittel wrote: »

Well it certainly contradicts it.

I am beginning to realise that nothing disproves what GreeBo says.

Not really though.... he's saying that its more nuanced, and not as simple as people arbitrarily working from home from now on.

All the IBEC survey says is 12% of people would like to fully work from home and that 83% would like more flexibility.

I can absolutely see the flexibility thing becoming a reality, but as for offices becoming a thing of the past.... nope, they still serve a purpose IMO.

For one thing, I think its actually because I've worked and personally interacted with my colleagues for the past 2 years is part of the reason that we've adapted relatively well to WFH during this time. I'm not sure how I'd feel about starting a new job from scratch, never having met anyone and having to learn all the processes remotely. Sounds very hard and lonely.

Snow Garden

GreeBo wrote: »

The technologies aren't the issue though.

Unless you have a holographic interface you will not replicate the adhoc conversations that are the oil of most companies.

Yes you can. You're all over the shop if I am being honest.

Over the past few years I bet you talk a lot less with your friends on the phone but Whatsapp them a lot more. How did that happen? Are they still your friends?

SozBbz

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yes you can. You're all over the shop if I am being honest.

Over the past few years I bet you talk a lot less with your friends on the phone but Whatsapp them a lot more. How did that happen? Are they still your friends?

What does that prove? You're not trying to hit deadlines with your friends, or deliver against project plans.

Plus everyone talks less to their friends as they get older.

That said, I still hope to carry on seeing my friends in real life from time to time, irrespective of technology.
The Zoom quizzes and cocktails are nice at the moment, but they're never going to be preferable to actually meeting a friend in person for a drink and dinner.

Similarly, I think most employees will want at least some in person contact with their co-workers, even if less than was previously the case.

Snow Garden

SozBbz wrote: »

All the IBEC survey says...

Ibec are great at stating the obvious. Ignore them.

SozBbz wrote: »

I can absolutely see the flexibility thing becoming a reality, but as for offices becoming a thing of the past.... nope, they still serve a purpose IMO.

Ah c'mon. Nobody is saying offices will become a thing of the past. However I am saying that companies will seek to have less office capacity.

For example - I can hire 50 resources for a 30 seat office if I implement hot-desking and WFH policies. Win Win.

guyfawkes5

I think the biggest change will be companies that previously resisted working from home for largely dressed-up reasons will now have that rationale shown to be ultimately cultural, meaning there'll significant pressure for them to keep at least some aspect of that freedom going forward even after Covid-19 passes, which of course in turn means more working from home generally.

People seem to be taking this to mean the death of offices, which I don't really think will happen from experience in the Tech industry where working from home has been heavily encouraged for years. The technology is great and you can definitely be as productive at home with discipline, but there is a human aspect to collaborations and careers and this will provide an upper limit for the numbers doing it week-in, week-out for most companies I would think.

Ozark707

Snow Garden wrote: »

For example - I can hire 50 resources for a 30 seat office if I implement hot-desking and WFH policies. Win Win.

I think this is going to be the mainstay going forward. We can probably all agree that there is going to be some change to work practices varying from industry to industry but the net effect will be a reduction in demand for property in or around Dublin.

Pivot Eoin

Can Mods Create a WFH side thread in Accom/Property?

No offence to posters, but sick of wading through pages of WFH debate on the general Property thread.

SozBbz

Snow Garden wrote: »

Ibec are great at stating the obvious. Ignore them.

Please point that to the person who cited IBEC as proof that everyone now wants to WFH.

[/QUOTE]
Ah c'mon. Nobody is saying offices will become a thing of the past. However I am saying that companies will seek to have less office capacity.

For example - I can hire 50 resources for a 30 seat office if I implement hot-desking and WFH policies. Win Win.[/QUOTE]

Why are you trying to fight with me then, thats basically what I've been saying. A mix between home and office is far more likely than everyone working from home.

And oh yes they are - that's literally why they're saying it on a property thread -that WFH is going to be so revolutionary, that no one will go to the office anymore and that we can all buy mansions in the back of beyond for €200k and no one will want to live in Dublin anymore, thus prices will collapse.

What myself and others are saying is that this is overly simplistic, and that a bit of WFH is not going to have people moving out of Dublin in their droves.

Snow Garden

Ozark707 wrote: »

I think this is going to be the mainstay going forward. We can probably all agree that there is going to be some change to work practices varying from industry to industry but the net effect will be a reduction in demand for property in or around Dublin.

100%. Commercial property and office space is not a good investment now. Watch what happens when expensive long term leases come up for renewal.

Brianmwalker

schmittel wrote: »

I don't really buy the argument that the market will suddenly be full of buyers with deep pockets this summer because of lockdown savings.

But the money saved thing is about the only bullish point I can see any potential in, and by that I mean a lot of people will have realised that actually living without all the trimmings like pints and a 3 euro coffees every day and weekly brunch, and all the other things we fritter our money on, is not that difficult.

It is feasible that this year post lockdown there will be a far larger number of would be house buyers with an aggressive (and successful) savings plan who otherwise may not have got very far.

I can't see the money saving lasting, once lock down is over every bar and restaurant will be booked out. Memories are short and people will enjoy all the stuff they were missing out on

Snow Garden

SozBbz wrote: »

Why are you trying to fight with me then, thats basically what I've been saying. A mix between home and office is far more likely than everyone working from home.

And oh yes they are - that's literally why they're saying it on a property thread -that WFH is going to be so revolutionary, that no one will go to the office anymore and that we can all buy mansions in the back of beyond for €200k and no one will want to live in Dublin anymore, thus prices will collapse.

What myself and others are saying is that this is overly simplistic, and that a bit of WFH is not going to have people moving out of Dublin in their droves.

I agree with you partially. I don't know who is saying 'droves' but it will be significant enough to see downward pressure on Dublin house prices and Dublin commercial property. And that % doing hotdesking/WFH will increase over time. It could also lead to more public service jobs available outside Dublin.

Cyrus

SozBbz wrote: »

Well obviously it remains to be seen what price the imaculate house will achieve, but, it seems like your friend will have done well, even if prices drop, theres always going to be value in a house in that location. It would rent well if they couldnt/dont want to sell it even if they outgrow it themselves. Vincents hospital alone would provide a pool of potential tenants.

While personally I've always done work when I've bought property, I know people who literally can't handle more than a lick of paint. Certain people can't see beyond whats in front of them, and unless its already "done" they won't be interested. Sure its how small scale developers have made a living forever.

youd be surprised at how far 80-100k goes, or doesnt go more to the point.

SozBbz

Brianmwalker wrote: »

I can't see the money saving lasting, once lock down is over every bar and restaurant will be booked out. Memories are short and people will enjoy all the stuff they were missing out on

If the queues daily outside my local post office are any indication, people may not be saving that much - online shopping seems to have ballooned!

I try to go for a walk at lunchtime and pass the post office and every day there are about hoards of people either collecting and returning packages.

I've been spending my money too, buying dinner boxes to heat up/finish at home from my favourite restaurants and I've definitely treated myself to a few nice items online.

Now I'm not trying to save for a house, but I've definitely found new ways to spend my free cash.

OwlsZat

cnocbui wrote: »

Yes, as stated in my original post. This pandemic is a worldwide phenomenon, in case you hadn't noticed. All countries are expected to experience a significant economic downturn. Australia is forecast to have 10% unemployment, which I think is optimistic.

You stated nothing in your original post about your unnamed quote being from or about Australia. It's close to meaningless in an Irish or Eurorpean context. The economy here is linked the UK EU and US. Not Australia.

Pivot Eoin

Cyrus wrote: »

youd be surprised at how far 80-100k goes, or doesnt go more to the point.

They're very lucky. We have a close pal who has flipped multiple houses taking it on. He told them if they don't buy it, he will. Reckons he could flip it at €100k profit. He's probably right if you completely discount labour costs seeing as he's doing it himself.

hometruths

SozBbz wrote: »

Not really though.... he's saying that its more nuanced, and not as simple as people arbitrarily working from home from now on.

All the IBEC survey says is 12% of people would like to fully work from home and that 83% would like more flexibility.

Ok I'll walk you through it. The IBEC article says a bit more than 83% want more flexibility.

Snow Garden mentions a company he know of that pre Covid-19 he knew of that were keen to reduce office costs and had employees asking for more WFH.

He say's 'It's the future for sure'.

GreeBo jumps on him and says "You can't possibly make that statement though. You have nothing to base it on other than the fact that at the moment people are being forced to work from home." (He clearly didn't register that Snow Garden expressly said he was basing it on people he knew who were asking to work from home pre Covid: i.e the exact opposite of "fact that at the moment people are being forced to work from home.")

The article contradicts him (in my opinion) because:

a) GreeBo is saying that he is not convinced that WFH is the future. In my opinion the IBEC article contradicts him because their director of employee relations says there will be "a significant permanent shift into home-working after the crisis"

b) later in the post he says "I think the idea that a large number of people are happy to give up the social aspect of working in an office (completely ignoring the other work impacts) is much smaller than a lot of people on here are expecting."

The article states

The majority (83%) of the 7,241 respondents indicated they would like to work remotely after the crisis is over. Of these, 12% want to do so daily, 42% said they would like to do so several times per week and 29% said they want to work remotely several times per month

So 54% (the majority) of people want to work from home daily or several times a week (which seems pretty regular to me)

In my opinion 54% is a large number, it is certainly larger that 46% therefore it contradicts what GreeBo said.

Cyrus

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

They're very lucky. We have a close pal who has flipped multiple houses taking it on. He told them if they don't buy it, he will. Reckons he could flip it at €100k profit. He's probably right if you completely discount labour costs seeing as he's doing it himself.

yep all depends on how much you do yourself, personally i dont have time so you have to pay, but if you can do work yourself you can save 10s of thousands.

SozBbz

Snow Garden wrote: »

I agree with you partially. I don't know who is saying 'droves' but it will be significant enough to see downward pressure on Dublin house prices and Dublin commercial property. And that % doing hotdesking/WFH will increase over time. It could also lead to more public service jobs available outside Dublin.

I still think theres more to it, I already only go into the office 4 days a week max, and maybe going forward it will be less, but I don't think I'd want to live anywhere else and its more than just work related.

I've some friends who went for new builds outside Dublin and within months were lamenting the lack of restaurant choices, concerts, comedy gigs and general ad hoc social activities that they were used to while renting in town. People like to live in urban environments for all sorts of reasons.

I think the impact will be far more on commercial than residential. My own company reduced 1/3rd of our office space due to attiriton of certain jobs to other locations and a revised office layout.

As for the Public Sector, lots of them have a long way to go. My company work with mostly PS clients and some of them have had huge difficulties adapting, as their set ups were so far removed. I'm talking about finance departments that physically printed and signed POs and then scanned them back rather than using paper free solutions for example, purely because for years they've just been resistant to change since forever and theres been no incentive for them to behave like a lean operation.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Hah!

Australia:


also:

OwlsZat wrote: »

You stated nothing in your original post about your unnamed quote being from or about Australia. It's close to meaningless in an Irish or Eurorpean context. The economy here is linked the UK EU and US. Not Australia.

Really?

hometruths

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Can Mods Create a WFH side thread in Accom/Property?

No offence to posters, but sick of wading through pages of WFH debate on the general Property thread.

Fair enough!

Will get back to its impact on property!

To me it seems likely that it will serve to dampen the demand a little even in the immediate term.

It will give some of those pause for thought who intended to buy this year. If WFH is working for them and their company, before they commit to €500k in Dublin they will wait and see if WFH is a viable long term option.

+ likely to put further pressure on rents, which will in turn put downward pressure on sales prices

PokeHerKing

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Can Mods Create a WFH side thread in Accom/Property?

No offence to posters, but sick of wading through pages of WFH debate on the general Property thread.

I think we need a GreeBo side thread. Most of this thread is him/her arguing the toss with a few other posters.

Pivot Eoin

Anybody know how this is happening on MyHome?

Been tracking this house for a bit and can see it's dropped to €595k today. It was €625k yesterday but no sign of that on the page. No signal or re-listing or Historical Price Drops on the page?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/21-kill-abbey-deansgrange-county-dublin/4378810

hometruths

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I think we need a GreeBo side thread. Most of this thread is him/her arguing the toss with a few other posters.

Apologies, guilty as charged.

PommieBast

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Dog Rough Properties could drop up to 20%

Back in December I viewed some real dumps in D1/D3/D7 which had asking of around €300k but which I thought back then were only perhaps worth €200k tops. Things like the one that was cracked in half due to subsidence, or the other where getting to the shower/toilet meant stepping out onto the patio. These are the places that will fall 40% or so, assuming they shift at all.

SozBbz

PommieBast wrote: »

Back in December I viewed some real dumps in D1/D3/D7 which had asking of around €300k but which I thought back then were only perhaps worth €200k tops. Things like the one that was cracked in half due to subsidence, or the other where getting to the shower/toilet meant stepping out onto the patio. These are the places that will fall 40% or so, assuming they shift at all.

I agree, I think properties in very poor nick are going to need a serious enough haircut. People not only have to finance the purchase price but also renovations which can be tricky. In many cases, you might need somewhere to live while works are being done which is also an obstacle for some.

I think they're potentially a good opportunity if you're a bit capable or confident when it comes to doing work/getting work done, but its too much for a lot of people.

GreeBo

mcbert wrote: »

Thats 90's thinking right there. Its not for everyone but many companies do it, and it can and does work well for many employers and employees

90s thinking?

Certain roles can do it, but even then you lose out significantly on the KT by natural osmosis and also incidental problem resolution where someone overhears someone else talking about something that they are working on.

This is as true for a developer as it is for a sales or procurement team.

GreeBo

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yes you can. You're all over the shop if I am being honest.

Over the past few years I bet you talk a lot less with your friends on the phone but Whatsapp them a lot more. How did that happen? Are they still your friends?

all over the place? This is pretty simple, common stuff I'm pointing out here.
If anything you are being incredibly naive if you think that technology is going to replace the office wholesale.

Equating shooting the breeze with your mates to adhoc collaboration at work is bizarre. Maybe it just depends on how long you have been working and how senior you are...

GreeBo

Snow Garden wrote: »

Ah c'mon. Nobody is saying offices will become a thing of the past. However I am saying that companies will seek to have less office capacity.

For example - I can hire 50 resources for a 30 seat office if I implement hot-desking and WFH policies. Win Win.

But that does nothing for property prices (residential at least) unless those 20 people move further out of Dublin. I dont know what percentage of people are going to move based on partial work from home 2 days a week, but I'm willing to bet its not significant.

And those 20 people need to have the rest of their lives (including their partners career) in a place that also suits them moving.

The intersection of all these pieces is smaller than you think, obviously in my opinion, and so is not going to massively impact house prices.

TheSheriff

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Anybody know how this is happening on MyHome?

Been tracking this house for a bit and can see it's dropped to €595k today. It was €625k yesterday but no sign of that on the page. No signal or re-listing or Historical Price Drops on the page?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/21-kill-abbey-deansgrange-county-dublin/4378810

Hard to know, I started keeping my home.ie email alters in a folder for areas I was subscribed too, to keep track of the price changes.

There is a real lack of transparency sometimes