Property Market 2020

Assetbacked

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/banks-to-tighten-lending-standards-because-of-covid-19-makhlouf-says-1.4252689?mode=amp

The blog post referred to in the article; https://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/blog-covid-19-and-developments-in-credit?utm_medium=social&utm_source=CBI-Homepage&utm_campaign=governor-covid-19&utm_content=43964

A key point of relevance to property;

A further piece of research (to be published tomorrow) shows that banks expect firms' demand for short-term loans to increase and demand for longer-term loans to decrease. On the household side, demand is expected to contract sharply, both for mortgage lending and for consumer credit.

GreeBo

TheSheriff wrote: »

Hard to know, I started keeping my home.ie email alters in a folder for areas I was subscribed too, to keep track of the price changes.

There is a real lack of transparency sometimes

https://property.trovit.ie/listing/21-kill-abbey-deansgrange-blackrock-county-dublin-625000.s1T1s1EE1I102

still 625 here

ebayissues

I was on a webinar recently regarding COV19 and the Irish economy.




For anyone interested - there are a couple of webinars hosted by EY about the irish economy.



https://www.ey.com/en_ie/covid-19


A virtual audience with Mr Paschal Donohoe TD, Minister for Finance & Public Expenditure and Reform



The speakeron the webinar that I listened to today, one of the leading reputable irish economist had house prics falling 10 - 15%. I dont thiink a timeline was given. IMO - this is far likely than the 30% some are saying.





Suppose one should differentiate or specificy whre ti drop can occur - in what markts segements. Does one see a 30% drop in prices between the 300 - 350k? Surely it can happen in houses selling the mniddle of nowhere for dicilous pries. It's this that will drop for even more. Will you see a 30% drop in house prices sellng between 300k - 350k in Raheny? Its vry unlikely but a 5/10% drop is more likely.



For anyone interested - there a couple of webinars hosted by EY about the irish economy.



https://www.ey.com/en_ie/covid-19


A virtual audience with Mr Paschal Donohoe TD, Minister for Finance & Public Expenditure and Reform

Pivot Eoin

ebayissues wrote: »

I was on a webinar recently regarding COV19 and the Irish economy.




For anyone interested - there are a couple of webinars hosted by EY about the irish economy.



https://www.ey.com/en_ie/covid-19


A virtual audience with Mr Paschal Donohoe TD, Minister for Finance & Public Expenditure and Reform



The speakeron the webinar that I listened to today, one of the leading reputable irish economist had house prics falling 10 - 15%. I dont thiink a timeline was given. IMO - this is far likely than the 30% some are saying.





Suppose one should differentiate or specificy whre ti drop can occur - in what markts segements. Does one see a 30% drop in prices between the 300 - 350k? Surely it can happen in houses selling the mniddle of nowhere for dicilous pries. It's this that will drop for even more. Will you see a 30% drop in house prices sellng between 300k - 350k in Raheny? Its vry unlikely but a 5/10% drop is more likely.



For anyone interested - there a couple of webinars hosted by EY about the irish economy.



https://www.ey.com/en_ie/covid-19


A virtual audience with Mr Paschal Donohoe TD, Minister for Finance & Public Expenditure and Reform

Which one did you watch today?

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

you're making a very sweeping generalization. Some people like working from home, some people don't. Many many people like social interaction in the workplace. Google continues to acquire prime office space in Dublin. WFH has benefits as an option but it is not a solution that will benefit all. People are sociable by nature. Covid will not change that medium to long term.

There is a high percentage of people that would like the option of wfh. Let's say 20% of all office work were to shift to home, that is fairly significant.

I believe I posted a radio report from a work hub in Skibbereen where local workers from several companies based in Cork came to work. Great idea in my opinion. 20% is a very Conservative number, I think this could go far higher

Ingenuity and thinking outside the box like this is what solves major problems. Multinationals have been calling on the government to address the supply issue for years. Neccesity is the mother of invention

If people are priced out of high demand markets, I see no harm in opening up new options and more affordable markets to them

WFH will be voluntary, it may well be taken up en masse by individuals that are priced out of the Dublin market or of the opinion that what they can afford is not suitable.

Hubertj wrote:

Out of interest, why do you think Tech and IT will benefit greatly from WFH?

Data security, cloud computing., antivirus, upgrading of broadband infrastructure, purchase of new hardware software
Silicon Valley has some of the highest priced real estate in the world less of it will be needed if they can wfh

Nasdaq is almost positive for the year.

Hubertj wrote:

fully agree with you. It suits people, whether full or part time, but doesn't suit many more. Some posters seem to think it is the end of offices, which is just bo*lox. It is all about giving people options.

It's not and never will be the end of offices. The discussion on these boards over the last few years often references the lack of building workers as they were busy on commercial projects

I note that 1 sector that has not recovered in the USA since the late march lows is banking and this is partly because of their exposure to commercial property. Stock markets are forward looking.

schmittel wrote:

Rents and sales prices will fall in Dublin. Whilst Dublin will always be at a premium the differential between Dublin and the rest of the country will narrow.

That pretty much sums it up

GreeBo wrote:

I'm basing it on experience the and fact that there are no cultures of mass working from home in any countries that I'm aware of.

Cultures evolve

combat14

ebayissues wrote: »

I was on a webinar recently regarding COV19 and the Irish economy.




For anyone interested - there are a couple of webinars hosted by EY about the irish economy.



https://www.ey.com/en_ie/covid-19


A virtual audience with Mr Paschal Donohoe TD, Minister for Finance & Public Expenditure and Reform



The speakeron the webinar that I listened to today, one of the leading reputable irish economist had house prics falling 10 - 15%. I dont thiink a timeline was given. IMO - this is far likely than the 30% some are saying.





Suppose one should differentiate or specificy whre ti drop can occur - in what markts segements. Does one see a 30% drop in prices between the 300 - 350k? Surely it can happen in houses selling the mniddle of nowhere for dicilous pries. It's this that will drop for even more. Will you see a 30% drop in house prices sellng between 300k - 350k in Raheny? Its vry unlikely but a 5/10% drop is more likely.



For anyone interested - there a couple of webinars hosted by EY about the irish economy.



https://www.ey.com/en_ie/covid-19


A virtual audience with Mr Paschal Donohoe TD, Minister for Finance & Public Expenditure and Reform

UK experts already saying house prices fell 5% there in March and predicting further falls of 10-15%

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/13/uk-property-market-could-fall-13-housing-experts-predict

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

There is a high percentage of people that would like the option of wfh. Let's say 20% of all office work were to shift to home, that is fairly significant.

It sounds significant but it's not.
Unless it's 20% of workers working from home 75%+ of the time then no, it's not significant from a property point of view.
Unless and until people sell up and move, nothing has changed from a property pov.
Even at 20% of workers, their family and partner have to also able and amenable to it.
You need huge numbers to even begin to impact the market.

Cultures evolve

How terribly deep and meaningless an answer that is.

smurgen

GreeBo wrote: »

It sounds significant but it's not.
Unless it's 20% of workers working from home 75%+ of the time then no, it's not significant from a property point of view.
Unless and until people sell up and move, nothing has changed from a property pov.
Even at 20% of workers, their family and partner have to also able and amenable to it.
You need huge numbers to even begin to impact the market.



How terribly deep and meaningless an answer that is.

Not really. A new buyer might now think I can move further out than I would have previously as I only have to commute once or twice a week now or maybe even once a fortnight. Nicer house further out and cheaper. Win win for everyone.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

Not really. A new buyer might now think I can move further out than I would have previously as I only have to commute once or twice a week now or maybe even once a fortnight. Nicer house further out and cheaper. Win win for everyone.

If what you say holds that’s only temporary, if proximity to cities is no longer a factor prices will rise in the cheaper areas and fall in more expensive areas

Hubertj

Kbc laid out a couple of scenarios..... best case 12% drop this year, worst case 20%-25% by end of 2021. I’ll stick with the “expert” view on boards.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/kbc-sees-irish-house-prices-falling-12-amid-covid-19-1.4253178

lawrencesummers

GreeBo wrote: »

https://property.trovit.ie/listing/21-kill-abbey-deansgrange-blackrock-county-dublin-625000.s1T1s1EE1I102

still 625 here

That’s just mad.

When I see things like this it makes me wonder why people are in such a hurry to live in Dublin. That house in other areas of the country would cost 350- 480 max, and when you weigh up the pros and cons it has to make sense for a lot of people.

Pivot Eoin

lawrencesummers wrote: »

That’s just mad.

When I see things like this it makes me wonder why people are in such a hurry to live in Dublin. That house in other areas of the country would cost 350- 480 max, and when you weigh up the pros and cons it has to make sense for a lot of people.

Well it's €595k now. In fairness that is a spacious 4 bed, fully detatched home, with very generous front and back gardens with room to extend to the side, 5 mins drive from DunLaoghaire and a short walk to Deansgrange, in a very nice and private estate, not needing a huge amount of work.

I'm not saying it's bargain of the century, but if you look at 3 Bed Terraced home prices in the area it's not bad value in comparison if you were able to strike a deal in the €550-€570k area.

I actually lived in that estate as a young child.

GreeBo

smurgen wrote: »

Not really. A new buyer might now think I can move further out than I would have previously as I only have to commute once or twice a week now or maybe even once a fortnight. Nicer house further out and cheaper. Win win for everyone.

Once or twice a fortnight is not what we are talking about though.
20% is one day a week.
Nobody is moving for 1 day a week in my experience.

GreeBo

lawrencesummers wrote: »

That’s just mad.

When I see things like this it makes me wonder why people are in such a hurry to live in Dublin. That house in other areas of the country would cost 350- 480 max, and when you weigh up the pros and cons it has to make sense for a lot of people.

That's what demand does though... Youd get a mansion in Belarus for the same price, are you gonna move there?

lawrencesummers

lawrencesummers wrote: »

When I see things like this it makes me wonder why people are in such a hurry to live in Dublin.

Not everybody has a choice though & for some the idea of commuting for hours everyday is depressing as hell!

Assetbacked

Another property related IT article this morning;

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/property-market-is-now-the-time-to-buy-1.4251536?mode=amp

It reads like it was sponsored by estate agents to coincide with the KBC article above! You always know when to take a pinch of salt with an article when it has quotes describing price declines as a "softening" of house prices.

All quotes come from the EAs. It mentions the Central Bank without noting the blog post from its governor which was reported in the IT yesterday outlining a severe contraction in mortgage lending as a result of the Covid-19 crisis.

These are the main points in the article;

- Buying power - "There are few upsides to lockdown, but for those whose income has not been impacted, their finances have never been healthier. By the end of this year, households will have between €10 billion and €15 billion extra in their bank accounts because they can’t spend it, analysts say.

With no spend on childcare, eating out, commuting, holidays or anything else, some saving for a house are in an even better position to buy.

Public sector workers and many in the pharmaceutical, technology and finance sectors will have seen no change to their base pay. The extra savings made in these months of not going out may position them to buy sooner, to borrow less or to pitch for a better property or postcode than they anticipated."

- Borrowing -" Current fixed interest rates mean that it’s not a bad time to borrow."

- Lending -"Many who wanted to buy have paused plans as banks tighten up on lending for those whose incomes are affected by the crisis. In fact, the number of mortgages approved by Irish banks in March declined by almost 10 per cent on the same month last year, Banking and Payments Federation figures show. But banks still have to lend to someone." and "The Central Bank says it has ‘not introduced any restrictions on lending in response to the pandemic’. Its big brother, the European Central Bank, has provided €120 billion in crisis relief to banks. This can be used by lenders to absorb losses or finance new lending, says the Central Bank."

- Competition -" Viewing numbers were strong before the pandemic and enquiries are still there, estate agents say."

- Bargain Town? -" Is it a good time to buy? “It depends on the price point,” says Michael Turley of Turley Property Advisors. Some 30 to 40 per cent of the market is unaffected by the crisis, he estimates. “If you have a house in Rathgar and you’ve got a doctor and a tech professional who want it, they might drive the price up to the pre-Covid level to get it.”"

- Chain Reaction -" If this was the year you were going to sell your house and buy another, any drop in prices will bring both advantages and disadvantages. But you’ve got to do what you’ve got to do.

Births, school, work, death and separations all spur moves and these continue – pandemic or no pandemic."

GreeBo

GreeBo wrote: »

Once or twice a fortnight is not what we are talking about though.
20% is one day a week.
Nobody is moving for 1 day a week in my experience.

I know a woman who moved her family to galway because she only has to go into the office in Dublin once a week

Pivot Eoin

Assetbacked wrote: »

- Bargain Town? -" Is it a good time to buy? “It depends on the price point,” says Michael Turley of Turley Property Advisors. Some 30 to 40 per cent of the market is unaffected by the crisis, he estimates. “If you have a house in Rathgar and you’ve got a doctor and a tech professional who want it, they might drive the price up to the pre-Covid level to get it.”"

Ha, this quote could be applied to any property, in any in demand area, anywhere. There is ALWAYS going to be some people unaffected by wider economic difficulties, and earning high wages. So in theory yes, 2 People, who really want the house, who both have the money, could always spark a bidding contest.

But this just isn't representative of the whole wider market. "30 to 40 percent of market unaffected" he's pulled this figure completely out of his arse, because it is just too early to tell how the whole wider market has responded to every different level of the housing market. I'd also point out that every level of the market is directly influenced by the Price Category directly above it and directly below it, so in some way, shape, or form the whole market will be affected.

It is PR fluff designed to get current sale agreeds over the line without people backing out or looking for discounts, and to maybe trick some who are looking to believe their BS when it comes to current highest bids etc.

combat14

Assetbacked wrote: »

Another property related IT article this morning;

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/property-market-is-now-the-time-to-buy-1.4251536?mode=amp

It reads like it was sponsored by estate agents to coincide with the KBC article above! You always know when to take a pinch of salt with an article when it has quotes describing price declines as a "softening" of house prices.

All quotes come from the EAs. It mentions the Central Bank without noting the blog post from its governor which was reported in the IT yesterday outlining a severe contraction in mortgage lending as a result of the Covid-19 crisis.

These are the main points in the article;

- Buying power - "There are few upsides to lockdown, but for those whose income has not been impacted, their finances have never been healthier. By the end of this year, households will have between €10 billion and €15 billion extra in their bank accounts because they can’t spend it, analysts say.

With no spend on childcare, eating out, commuting, holidays or anything else, some saving for a house are in an even better position to buy.

Public sector workers and many in the pharmaceutical, technology and finance sectors will have seen no change to their base pay. The extra savings made in these months of not going out may position them to buy sooner, to borrow less or to pitch for a better property or postcode than they anticipated."

- Borrowing -" Current fixed interest rates mean that it’s not a bad time to borrow."

- Lending -"Many who wanted to buy have paused plans as banks tighten up on lending for those whose incomes are affected by the crisis. In fact, the number of mortgages approved by Irish banks in March declined by almost 10 per cent on the same month last year, Banking and Payments Federation figures show. But banks still have to lend to someone." and "The Central Bank says it has ‘not introduced any restrictions on lending in response to the pandemic’. Its big brother, the European Central Bank, has provided €120 billion in crisis relief to banks. This can be used by lenders to absorb losses or finance new lending, says the Central Bank."

- Competition -" Viewing numbers were strong before the pandemic and enquiries are still there, estate agents say."

- Bargain Town? -" Is it a good time to buy? “It depends on the price point,” says Michael Turley of Turley Property Advisors. Some 30 to 40 per cent of the market is unaffected by the crisis, he estimates. “If you have a house in Rathgar and you’ve got a doctor and a tech professional who want it, they might drive the price up to the pre-Covid level to get it.”"

- Chain Reaction -" If this was the year you were going to sell your house and buy another, any drop in prices will bring both advantages and disadvantages. But you’ve got to do what you’ve got to do.

Births, school, work, death and separations all spur moves and these continue – pandemic or no pandemic."

Looks like house prices are going to 2008 prices and beyond tomorrow based on this.
They probably are factoring in the central bank nuking the 3.5 lending limits too.

No mention of a pending global economic recession/depression and the million or so here now relying completely on state support.

I does love a balanced Irish Times news article.

Irish Independent this morning has more sobering reading:

Coronavirus Ireland: 300,000 'will be out of work for years to come'
'Sobering' message: Economic crisis 'more like 1980s than the financial crash'

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-300000-will-be-out-of-work-for-years-to-come-39205475.html

GreeBo

bubblypop wrote: »

I know a woman who moved her family to galway because she only has to go into the office in Dublin once a week

Did house prices change when she did this?

Anecdotes don't make the market I'm afraid.

I know a couple who moved back because one of them couldn't get a job in her industry.

Zenify

Hubertj wrote: »

Kbc laid out a couple of scenarios..... best case 12% drop this year, worst case 20%-25% by end of 2021. I’ll stick with the “expert” view on boards.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/kbc-sees-irish-house-prices-falling-12-amid-covid-19-1.4253178

That expert is a turkey telling you what not to eat for christmas.

GreeBo

GreeBo wrote: »

Did house prices change when she did this?

Anecdotes don't make the market I'm afraid.

I know a couple who moved back because one of them couldn't get a job in her industry.

Never suggested it was.
Was merely replying to your suggestion that people don't move for one day

Hubertj

Zenify wrote: »

That expert is a turkey telling you what not to eat for christmas.

What’s your “expert” opinion?

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

Looks like house prices are going to 2008 prices and beyond tomorrow based on this.
They probably are factoring in the central bank nuking the 3.5 lending limits too.

No mention of a pending global economic recession/depression and the million or so here now relying completely on state support.

I does love a balanced Irish Times news article.

Irish Independent this morning has more sobering reading:

Coronavirus Ireland: 300,000 'will be out of work for years to come'
'Sobering' message: Economic crisis 'more like 1980s than the financial crash'

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-300000-will-be-out-of-work-for-years-to-come-39205475.html

If that transpires, there will be no new houses constructed in Ireland for the foreseeable future and those brave souls with cash will be out buying up 60% of the existing houses that are available. 60-70% of tradesmen will emigrate, if possible, like last time. Can't imagine how the banks are going to survive.

Snow Garden

combat14 wrote: »

Irish Independent this morning has more sobering reading:

Coronavirus Ireland: 300,000 'will be out of work for years to come'
'Sobering' message: Economic crisis 'more like 1980s than the financial crash'

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-300000-will-be-out-of-work-for-years-to-come-39205475.html

Very sobering but it's the scenario I expect out of this virus and it's implications to business and tourism.

Hubertj

Snow Garden wrote: »

Very sobering but it's the scenario I expect out of this virus and it's implications to business and tourism.

Yep doesn’t look good. A lot is going to depend on what they come up with out of Europe. Big decisions to be made.

Snow Garden

cnocbui wrote: »

If that transpires, there will be no new houses constructed in Ireland for the foreseeable future and those brave souls with cash will be out buying up 60% of the existing houses that are available. 60-70% of tradesmen will emigrate, if possible, like last time.

Where will they emigrate to and will they have competitive wage expectations like they had in the 70/80s? I believe the lack of a credible emigration valve will make this recession much worse.

I do expect construction worker emigration from one sector - outlined in this post: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=113397138

spaceHopper

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Anybody know how this is happening on MyHome?

Been tracking this house for a bit and can see it's dropped to €595k today. It was €625k yesterday but no sign of that on the page. No signal or re-listing or Historical Price Drops on the page?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/21-kill-abbey-deansgrange-county-dublin/4378810

You'd be pumping in another 50K++ to the house. Look over the pictures again there are sockets higher up on the wall which are not used and extension leads plugged in to sockets at floor level. Red Flag1. The heating system is old probably gun metal so will need to be ripped out. Windows probably leak heat. The insulation is probably terrible then there will be all the making good.

lawrencesummers

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Well it's €595k now. In fairness that is a spacious 4 bed, fully detatched home, with very generous front and back gardens with room to extend to the side, 5 mins drive from DunLaoghaire and a short walk to Deansgrange, in a very nice and private estate, not needing a huge amount of work.

I'm not saying it's bargain of the century, but if you look at 3 Bed Terraced home prices in the area it's not bad value in comparison if you were able to strike a deal in the €550-€570k area.

I actually lived in that estate as a young child.

Thats exactly what an EA would say.

The back garden is no more 'generous'
There is no room to the side to extend, maybe above the garage but not to the side.
Its an old home - 'not needing a huge amount of work' is fair if you like stair lifts, old windows, old garage doors. It looks to be very well kept and has had some heating and window modernisations, but they need further investigation.

Snow Garden

bubblypop wrote: »

I know a woman who moved her family to galway because she only has to go into the office in Dublin once a week

I also know a senior financial manager living in Galway and going to her office in Dublin a maximum of once a week. She moved her family down 4 years ago.
It's only 2 hours up the motorway.