Property Market 2020

Pivot Eoin

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Thats exactly what an EA would say.

The back garden is no more 'generous'
There is no room to the side to extend, maybe above the garage but not to the side.
Its an old home - 'not needing a huge amount of work' is fair if you like stair lifts, old windows, old garage doors. It looks to be very well kept and has had some heating and window modernisations, but they need further investigation.

Well that is what I meant. Convert the Garage, build above it. I would consider that room to extend.

I suggest you look at the back garden equivalents in that area (I lived 5 mins walk from that property majority of my life)

I'm not trying to sound like an EA, I know it isnt perfect. But there are far better examples in the area of Crazy Asking Prices.. like this one: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-northumberland-park-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96a568/4423098

hometruths

Assetbacked wrote: »

Another property related IT article this morning;

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/property-market-is-now-the-time-to-buy-1.4251536?mode=amp

Amidst all these bullish EA's, Owen Reilly seems to be having a tough time of it:

Agent Owen Reilly, who handles a lot of Dockland sales, says over half their deals have fallen through, and they have had to renegotiate at lower prices. There have also been calls from buyers asking whether properties have been discounted.

“Definitely the market won’t be unscathed,” he says. “I valued a property pre-Covid at between € 580,000 and € 600,000 and we now plan to launch it at €520,000 and hopefully there will be interest from more than one party at that level”.

Or to put it another way - Estate agent says property prices have dropped 10% already.

In contrast Eunan Doherty of DNG Central is having a good lockdown:

“I’ve sale agreed some properties in recent weeks around Dublin 8 and I’m in regular contact with several potential buyers.

This continuing demand is from those not impacted financially and who are undeterred by macro uncertainty. “There are first time buyers in rental accommodation who are ready to buy and they are very, very keen,” says Doherty.

The smart, ballsy first time buyers are undeterred by macro uncertainty.

What could go wrong?

Pivot Eoin

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

like this one: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-northumberland-park-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96a568/4423098

Look at the TV/Phone cable coming in above the radiater in the bunk bed room.
Imagine letting that happen in your house.
that is the standard of UPC/Sky/KN works

Pivot Eoin

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

like this one: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-northumberland-park-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96a568/4423098

Look at the TV/Phone cable coming in above the radiator in the bunk bed room.
Imagine letting that happen in your house.
that is the standard of UPC/Sky/KN works

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

Once or twice a fortnight is not what we are talking about though. 20% is one day a week. Nobody is moving for 1 day a week in my experience.

It's currently close to 100%, 20% would be a very Conservative estimate.

Even at 20% of all work carried out in the office, it would be significant
1 day a week assumes everyone will be doing it, however it is far more likely that employees that are struggling for accommodation in Dublin that would look at it as a more regular option

This would help in moving potential demand away from high demand areas

Add in higher unemployment, reduced foreign students, potential salary cuts, reduced tourism and you can see re balancing of supply demand issues

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Amidst all these bullish EA's, Owen Reilly seems to be having a tough time of it:



Or to put it another way - Estate agent says property prices have dropped 10% already.

In contrast Eunan Doherty of DNG Central is having a good lockdown:



The smart, ballsy first time buyers are undeterred by macro uncertainty.

What could go wrong?

i think Owen Reilly released a short video on LinkedIn last week giving an overview. Someone else posted it - realistic outlook but he seems to be concentrated in docklands area from what i remember others saying. A lot of those apartments sounded very over priced anyway..

Knex*

schmittel wrote: »

Amidst all these bullish EA's, Owen Reilly seems to be having a tough time of it:



Or to put it another way - Estate agent says property prices have dropped 10% already.

In contrast Eunan Doherty of DNG Central is having a good lockdown:



The smart, ballsy first time buyers are undeterred by macro uncertainty.

What could go wrong?

DNG are a tedious crowd to deal with, in my experience. Proper shady, even when compared to other EAs.

There's one EA in general around the D7/D15 area that would make me rule out viewing a house just by seeing his name alone.

Cuddlesworth

Hubertj wrote: »

i think Owen Reilly released a short video on LinkedIn last week giving an overview. Someone else posted it - realistic outlook but he seems to be concentrated in docklands area from what i remember others saying. A lot of those apartments sounded very over priced anyway..

Difference there is the potential market for buyers. I would take a guess and say apartments in the docklands were primarily "Investors" looking for the 3k a month rents, while the house buyers are primarily people looking to purchase a family home.

Investors drop off first, since they have more options.

Empty_Space

I cant wait for property to be down 40-50 percent if only to look back and laugh at those misinformed talking about supply\building costs etc et.. All propaganda speak.

Cyrus

Empty_Space wrote: »

I cant wait for property to be down 40-50 percent if only to look back and laugh at those misinformed talking about supply\building costs etc et.. All propaganda speak.

bore off

if property is down 50% the country is in massive trouble.

Hubertj

Empty_Space wrote: »

I cant wait for property to be down 40-50 percent if only to look back and laugh at those misinformed talking about supply\building costs etc et.. All propaganda speak.

that's a lovely outlook.... happy to see other peoples' misfortune. Really worthwhile contribution.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

bore off

if property is down 50% the country is in massive trouble.

the country is already in massive trouble. I think that is why some people are expecting property prices to fall.

Snow Garden

Villa05 wrote: »

Add in higher unemployment, reduced foreign students, potential salary cuts, reduced tourism and you can see re balancing of supply demand issues

I believe UCD takes in roughly 10,000 international students. It will not be long before they need to approach the government for a bailout.

fliball123

Empty_Space wrote: »

I cant wait for property to be down 40-50 percent if only to look back and laugh at those misinformed talking about supply\building costs etc et.. All propaganda speak.

Where are you getting 40/50% thats crazy the only person being laughed at will be you

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

that's a lovely outlook.... happy to see other peoples' misfortune. Really worthwhile contribution.

Just to be clear, I am not wishing to see anybody suffer, but how exactly do you see large numbers of people suffering because their property has fallen 50%?

Zenify

Hubertj wrote: »

What’s your “expert” opinion?

My opinion is the same as it has been here for years. We really dont know. Theres a hell of a lot more risk now than the last couple of years for downward pressure through. I dont like articles and information coming from interested parties. That's why I made that comment. Banks and property investors are not going to publish information that's detrimental to their business. They are in the profit business not the honesty business. As other posters have said there is an attitude of "nothing to see here" amongst estate agents and developers at the moment. I dont blame them, their livelihoods depend on it. It is possible they are even here on boards trying to convince people that everything is ok and carry on buying property. Likewise prospective buyers want the opposite.

addaword

Snow Garden wrote: »

I believe UCD takes in roughly 10,000 international students. It will not be long before they need to approach the government for a bailout.

The whole country will be asking the government for bailouts on top of bailouts. No wonder property is forecast to fall 50%. It did the last time in many parts of the country too and this recession will be worse.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Just to be clear, I am not wishing to see anybody suffer, but how exactly do you see large numbers of people suffering because their property has fallen 50%?

I'm not referring to you - you are giving a negative opinion based on what you see........ suffering because of unemployment, negative equity, pressure from lenders, lose home, possibly bankruptcy, stress.

My wife and I are in a lucky position with secure employment, plenty of savings and low mortgage payments. I know that many people are not as fortunate but you have some clown saying he will laugh...... a bit of cop on lads. but i suppose that is what trolling is.

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

It's currently close to 100%, 20% would be a very Conservative estimate.

Yeah but it's 100% because we are on lockdown.
What makes 20% conservative?
What were the numbers before lockdown? They weren't 20% or anything near it.

Villa05 wrote: »

Even at 20% of all work carried out in the office, it would be significant
1 day a week assumes everyone will be doing it, however it is far more likely that employees that are struggling for accommodation in Dublin that would look at it as a more regular option

That assumes that the employers are happy to have someone work from home more frequently, which is a large assumption.

Villa05 wrote: »

This would help in moving potential demand away from high demand areas

Add in higher unemployment, reduced foreign students, potential salary cuts, reduced tourism and you can see re balancing of supply demand issues

Which happens first though? Infrastructure moves to lower demand areas so the people follow, or the people move so the infrastructure follows?
You arent going to get a lot of people moving to areas that dont have the supports in place.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I'm not referring to you - you are giving a negative opinion based on what you see........ suffering because of unemployment, negative equity, pressure from lenders, lose home, possibly bankruptcy, stress.

My wife and I are in a lucky position with secure employment, plenty of savings and low mortgage payments. I know that many people are not as fortunate but you have some clown saying he will laugh...... a bit of cop on lads. but i suppose that is what trolling is.

I agree that suffering is very real - unemployment, negative equity, pressure from lenders, lose home, possibly bankruptcy, stress - and nobody wants to see it.

And I am certainly not going to laugh if prices drop 50%, (i'll be facing a big financial hit myself), but I understand the frustration of some of the posters on here.

I believe they see people charging full steam ahead buying now and are saying, stop you're mad, because they foresee the sort of suffering you reference.

But they are told by the bullish posters that sure that suffering is not a big deal compared to the suffering of not owning a property, buy now and don't listen to the people who are wishing for a crash so they can cash in on others misfortune.

It's maddening.

I see sheep

Daily Mail (I know ) reporting that in the UK buyers are asking for 20% off pre-covid prices. (That's the headline)

In the article it says that Estate Agents are telling sellers to they need to accept between 5% - 10% lower than pre covid.

Snow Garden

fliball123 wrote: »

Where are you getting 40/50% thats crazy the only person being laughed at will be you

I expect house prices to be down 40% down on Q1-2020 levels by the end of 2022. I have outlined why in previous posts.

fliball123

Snow Garden wrote: »

I expect house prices to be down 40% down on Q1-2020 levels by the end of 2022. I have outlined why in previous posts.

Good luck with that I hope your not left waiting

Snow Garden

fliball123 wrote: »

Good luck with that I hope your not left waiting

I am not looking to buy or sell at the moment so it is what it is. I do have property and I would prefer to be very wrong but I call it as I see it.
I would also hate to see a FTB buy an overpriced property now too. I have experienced negative equity before.

Please feel free to counter any of my previous arguments and send me an 'I told you so' at the end of 2021 (I predict a 20+% fall by close of 2021).

amyed198

Knex. wrote: »

DNG are a tedious crowd to deal with, in my experience. Proper shady, even when compared to other EAs.

There's one EA in general around the D7/D15 area that would make me rule out viewing a house just by seeing his name alone.

Same with Ray Cooke. One EA based in the Finglas branch thinks he is too big for his boots, dreadful professional and is known to be emotional and rude to clients via text/phone

amyed198

Federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell paints a grim economic picture — get ready for more selling in the stock market which will cascade and impact house prices

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200513a.htm

wassie

Zenify wrote: »

...Banks and property investors are not going to publish information that's detrimental to their business. They are in the profit business not the honesty business....

Actually the Banks are PLCs have a legal obligation to publish information that may be detrimental to their business to the market. Such examples can be found in their profit guidance - of which most have now said is no longer applicable since the shutdown.

KBC reported today in the Independant warning investors "House prices in Ireland could fall 20pc this year and continue to decline in 2021". Not exactly a good news story for the bank.

JimmyVik

schmittel wrote: »

I agree that suffering is very real - unemployment, negative equity, pressure from lenders, lose home, possibly bankruptcy, stress - and nobody wants to see it.

And I am certainly not going to laugh if prices drop 50%, (i'll be facing a big financial hit myself), but I understand the frustration of some of the posters on here.

I believe they see people charging full steam ahead buying now and are saying, stop you're mad, because they foresee the sort of suffering you reference.

But they are told by the bullish posters that sure that suffering is not a big deal compared to the suffering of not owning a property, buy now and don't listen to the people who are wishing for a crash so they can cash in on others misfortune.

It's maddening.

The amount of people I told not to buy from 2000 to 2008 is unreal. I genuinely felt sorry for them when they all ignored my "advice" and thought if only they had followed my advice. I realize now that I actually had no clue. I just convinced myself that I knew all about it and could predict it.


These days im jealous of them. Not one of them regret buying. I regret not buying then though. But the upshot is, I dont have a clue and I am only guessing when I make predictions. So its for fun more than anything else.

Ronaldinho

I can see the State stepping in at some point to scoop up new builds at 20% discount to use for social housing.

PommieBast

SozBbz wrote: »

I agree, I think properties in very poor nick are going to need a serious enough haircut. People not only have to finance the purchase price but also renovations which can be tricky. In many cases, you might need somewhere to live while works are being done which is also an obstacle for some.

I think they're potentially a good opportunity if you're a bit capable or confident when it comes to doing work/getting work done, but its too much for a lot of people.

In a falling market the better maintained properties in more desirable areas are simply nowhere to be seen, so I would not be surprised if for the next 12-18 months the whole market being a fire-sale.