Property Market 2020

Shelga

schmittel wrote: »

Nobody as far as I can see is saying Dublin is a kip and everybody is dying to leave it, as soon as they're able they're about to leave in their droves.

If money was no object I suspect most people would like to live in Dublin. If I didn't have to worry about the bills I'd be in a detached period house with sea frontage in Dalkey, but sadly real life got in the way.

And real life looks like changing work practices so an increasing number of people will be able to WFH.

It is inevitable that some of them will weigh up the costs and benefits to live in the capital, and decide not to.

And whilst maybe you weren't bleating endlessly about how it was expensive in the place you lived abroad, did you complain about how expensive Dublin was when you came back?!

I’m sure I did at times, but I’m just saying after a while you have to pull yourself out of it and accept things as they are, or actively try to change your situation. Of course housing in Dublin is a nightmare.

Maybe there haven’t been too many in the last few pages of this thread, but we’ve all seen people in this forum talk about how they can’t wait to leave Dublin, it’s a kip, commuting is a nightmare, etc.

lawrencesummers

schmittel wrote: »

Nobody as far as I can see is saying Dublin is a kip and everybody is dying to leave it, as soon as they're able they're about to leave in their droves.

If money was no object I suspect most people would like to live in Dublin. If I didn't have to worry about the bills I'd be in a detached period house with sea frontage in Dalkey, but sadly real life got in the way.

And real life looks like changing work practices so an increasing number of people will be able to WFH.

It is inevitable that some of them will weigh up the costs and benefits to live in the capital, and decide not to.

And whilst maybe you weren't bleating endlessly about how it was expensive in the place you lived abroad, did you complain about how expensive Dublin was when you came back?!

If money was no object Dublin wouldn’t even be on the list of fifty places I would like to live.

The Student

Empty_Space wrote: »

Such a silly attitude. We need properties to get back to normal prizes. It will do a hell of a lot more people good then it will do bad.

Normal prices are dictated by a market. People disagree with what a normal price is if they can't afford it. That does not suggest prices are not normal!

Empty_Space

The Student wrote: »

Normal prices are dictated by a market. People disagree with what a normal price is if they can't afford it. That does not suggest prices are not normal!

Prices are inflated by meddling governments with invested interest to keep prizes growing forever so they can profit on their investments.

I've got news, prices don't just keep going up and when they go down, they go down quick. Sadly it will mostly be the working class who get burned badly.

If we can keep prices reasonable and not put everyone in strangling debt it's good for all. The markets are rigged to allow rich get richer. The only person who benefits from rising prices are those selling for profit or those renting out

hometruths

The Student wrote: »

Normal prices are dictated by a market. People disagree with what a normal price is if they can't afford it. That does not suggest prices are not normal!

Another view people think the price is normal if they don't understand the market forces at work.

Or they understand it perfectly well, but the abnormal pricing suits their own vested interests.

Normal prices are dictated by price discovery in an efficient market.

There is an abundance of evidence on this thread (a lot of it from the bullish posters) that suggest the Irish market is far from efficient.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Another view people think the price is normal if they don't understand the market forces at work.

Or they understand it perfectly well, but the abnormal pricing suits their own vested interests.

Normal prices are dictated by price discovery in an efficient market.

There is an abundance of evidence on this thread (a lot of it from the bullish posters) that suggest the Irish market is far from efficient.

So what elements of cost are too high? Price of land in urban areas? How much should it cost? Construction costs? Should tradesmen be paid less? Developer/builder margin is currently 15%ish ? Do you consider that too high considering the financial outlay? VAT?
As I understand it there has been a chronic undersupply of units. This is partly down to government policy by not building social housing. However there also appears to be a severe shortage of tradesmen. How do you increase supply if it is physically impossible?

lawrencesummers

Empty_Space wrote: »

Prices are inflated by meddling governments with invested interest to keep prizes growing forever so they can profit on their investments.

I've got news, prices don't just keep going up and when they go down, they go down quick. Sadly it will mostly be the working class who get burned badly.

If we can keep prices reasonable and not put everyone in strangling debt it's good for all. The markets are rigged to allow rich get richer. The only person who benefits from rising prices are those selling for profit or those renting out

Bit of the tinfoil hat there.

If this government has done one thing it’s keep a lid on house prices inflating to quickly, the central bank rules are often criticized for their restrictive nature but they keep thresholds in place that keep pricing from going crazy.

As far as it bein the working class that get badly burned that’s not the case, some high profile high end property owners lost their multiple fancy shirts when the property bubble burst previously.

And your just plain wrong about the only people who benefit are investors and landlords, that’s just not the case. Plenty of older people have done very well downsizing in recent times.

cnocbui

Empty_Space wrote: »

Such a silly attitude. We need properties to get back to normal prizes. It will do a hell of a lot more people good then it will do bad.

Ah, yes, the globally acknowledged 'normal' pricing at below cost.

The Student

schmittel wrote: »

Another view people think the price is normal if they don't understand the market forces at work.

Or they understand it perfectly well, but the abnormal pricing suits their own vested interests.

Normal prices are dictated by price discovery in an efficient market.

There is an abundance of evidence on this thread (a lot of it from the bullish posters) that suggest the Irish market is far from efficient.

To control prices requires a small number of suppliers who control the majority of the market to dictate prices.

Each person selling a property is not influencing the market, they are price takers is they are getting what the market offersoffers.

A rational buyer will not buy if they think the price is unfair or they will complain the price is not fair.

People should purchase at a figure they feel is fair, as should a seller sell at what they feel is a fair price.

Perhaps part of the issue is not the market but the unwillingness of people to accept market forces of supply and demand.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

So what elements of cost are too high? Price of land in urban areas? How much should it cost? Construction costs? Should tradesmen be paid less? Developer/builder margin is currently 15%ish ? Do you consider that too high considering the financial outlay? VAT?
As I understand it there has been a chronic undersupply of units. This is partly down to government policy by not building social housing. However there also appears to be a severe shortage of tradesmen. How do you increase supply if it is physically impossible?

Most of the costs you mention (apart from VAT) are input costs fluctuating with the overall sale price - I don't think the problem is here. The market is broken top downwards.

You say increasing supply is physically impossible but I believe the principal problem on the supply side is not that the number of new physical units on the market is too low but that the turnover % of all properties is too low.

For efficient price discovery a functioning market requires a decent % of units continuously turning over; if that is not happening the market clogs up and simply leads to an inefficient allocation of resources.

There is a clamour for more supply, supply, build, build more! It is a relatively short term fix but in reality, that is just exacerbating the problem as although it might increase the volume of transactions, it is lowering the turnover rate longterm.

Of course I may be wrong in my understanding of this, but I am yet to hear a convincing case that contradicts the above. Maybe some of the experts on market forces here will enlighten me.

There are a myriad of problems on the demand side, but largely they stem from the turnover problem, so cannot effectively be solved until the supply side is sorted.

I'll add that I have no idea what long term normal prices should be, for all I know they might be higher than they are currently, though I doubt it.

All I am confident of is that we do not have efficient price discovery in the Irish property market.

smurgen

Looks like the WFH deployment in the UK is having an effect.

"Estate agents are reporting a surge in the numbers of would-be homebuyers plotting a move out of the city to a rural area or smaller town as people conclude that home working is here to stay."

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/may/08/homebuyers-plotting-move-to-country-amid-increased-home-working

hometruths

The Student wrote: »

To control prices requires a small number of suppliers who control the majority of the market to dictate prices.

Each person selling a property is not influencing the market, they are price takers is they are getting what the market offersoffers.

A rational buyer will not buy if they think the price is unfair or they will complain the price is not fair.

People should purchase at a figure they feel is fair, as should a seller sell at what they feel is a fair price.

Perhaps part of the issue is not the market but the unwillingness of people to accept market forces of supply and demand.

I'm not convinced that the average buyer purchasing property in Ireland is completely rational. There have been justifications for buying on this forum that would be considered completely irrational in other markets.

If you were to seek out a market for an economic case study for irrational herd behaviour you'd struggle to find a better example than our housing market.

I am absolutely willing to accept market forces of supply and demand. They always win out in the end.

hometruths

smurgen wrote: »

Looks like the WFH deployment in the UK is having an effect.

"Estate agents are reporting a surge in the numbers of would-be homebuyers plotting a move out of the city to a rural area or smaller town as people conclude that home working is here to stay."

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/may/08/homebuyers-plotting-move-to-country-amid-increased-home-working

Ireland is different.

The Student

schmittel wrote: »

I'm not convinced that the average buyer purchasing property in Ireland is completely rational. There have been justifications for buying on this forum that would be considered completely irrational in other markets.

If you were to seek out a market for an economic case study for irrational herd behaviour you'd struggle to find a better example than our housing market.

I am absolutely willing to accept market forces of supply and demand. They always win out in the end.

Well then maybe people need to take responsibility for their choices rather than everyone else having to.

hometruths

The Student wrote: »

Well then maybe people need to take responsibility for their choices rather than everyone else having to.

Couldn't agree more. And that in a nutshell is why the market is broken.

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

Looks like the WFH deployment in the UK is having an effect.

"Estate agents are reporting a surge in the numbers of would-be homebuyers plotting a move out of the city to a rural area or smaller town as people conclude that home working is here to stay."

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/may/08/homebuyers-plotting-move-to-country-amid-increased-home-working

Uk would have better infrastructure so would be easier to commute when you have to go to the office. Train into tube network and away you go. Some lovely towns in East Sussex.

The Student

schmittel wrote: »

Couldn't agree more. And that in a nutshell is why the market is broken.

The market is broken because of housing benefits, mortgage defaulters, minimum evictions/repossessions. But nobody is willing to grasp that nettle!

hometruths

The Student wrote: »

The market is broken because of housing benefits, mortgage defaulters, minimum evictions/repossessions. But nobody is willing to grasp that nettle!

Yes exactly, that's the root of the problem causing the low turnover, but not grasping the nettle will not make it go away!

Padre_Pio

smurgen wrote: »

Looks like the WFH deployment in the UK is having an effect.

"Estate agents are reporting a surge in the numbers of would-be homebuyers plotting a move out of the city to a rural area or smaller town as people conclude that home working is here to stay."

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/may/08/homebuyers-plotting-move-to-country-amid-increased-home-working

B*llocks.
People have been in lockdown for 8 weeks.
No one is buying a house thinking they'll be WFH forever.

In 6 months the situation could be completely different but the property market is very slow to react to market changes. I don't know why people are expecting prices to drop overnight.

GreeBo

Hubertj wrote: »

Uk would have better infrastructure so would be easier to commute when you have to go to the office. Train into tube network and away you go. Some lovely towns in East Sussex.

tbf the train is crazy expensive in the UK and commuting by tube is neither pleasant nor easy (not to mention reliable)

Assetbacked

GreeBo wrote: »

tbf the train is crazy expensive in the UK and commuting by tube is neither pleasant nor easy (not to mention reliable)

I'd rather live in overcrowded London than have to travel in for two hours on a train and a Tube two days a week. Really unpleasant commuting in London.

That's a big draw with Dublin, it may not have the most incredible transport system but it's an hour door to door maximum commute for most people.

jimbobaloobob

Carl Dieter had an interesting take on it today on Mat Cooper

jimbobaloobob

jimbobaloobob wrote: »

Carl Dieter had an interesting take on it today on Mat Cooper

Which was?

Sheeps

jimbobaloobob wrote: »

Carl Dieter had an interesting take on it today on Mat Cooper

Carl Dieter is about the only one who has more consistently bad takes on things related to property and the economy than Dan O'Brien.

I don't even know what he said or what it is about. I just know what ever he said is probably wrong.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

So what elements of cost are too high? Price of land in urban areas? How much should it cost? Construction costs? Should tradesmen be paid less? Developer/builder margin is currently 15%ish ? Do you consider that too high considering the financial outlay? VAT? As I understand it there has been a chronic undersupply of units. This is partly down to government policy by not building social housing. However there also appears to be a severe shortage of tradesmen. How do you increase supply if it is physically impossible?

The Student wrote:

To control prices requires a small number of suppliers who control the majority of the market to dictate prices.

The property market was controlled by government. Michael Nonnan effectively said so a few years back when asked about affordability he stated that prices needed to go up a litlle bit more. This was years after supply issues in high demand areas

How did they do this?
Nama,
Almost full control of banks.
Punitive double digit interest rate for development of resdintitial property
Banning of bedsits
Stimulating demand ftb grants while suffocating supply
Washing their hands of social and affordable housing. The private market cannot provide housing for all it can barely accommodate the top 30% of income earners
Allowing mortgage defaults to climb to epic proportions without any consequence. This further strangled supply and has set a dangerous precedent for the forthcoming recession

The supply demand imbalance is a result of government policy and inaction

James 007

The only character left in this place is the tree stump outside the front door:rolleyes:

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/rathgar/cranford-gate-lodge-125-rathgar-road-rathgar-dublin-2441309/

I need some humour, can you spot any other 'character' aspects to this house:D

lawrencesummers

James 007 wrote: »

The only character left in this place is the tree stump outside the front door:rolleyes:

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/rathgar/cranford-gate-lodge-125-rathgar-road-rathgar-dublin-2441309/

I need some humour, can you spot any other 'character' aspects to this house:D

Half a million for an anorexic canoe shed.
It’s a steal.

TheSheriff

James 007 wrote: »

The only character left in this place is the tree stump outside the front door:rolleyes:

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/rathgar/cranford-gate-lodge-125-rathgar-road-rathgar-dublin-2441309/

I need some humour, can you spot any other 'character' aspects to this house:D

I think you've won this thread. I'm shocked.

Markitron

James 007 wrote: »

The only character left in this place is the tree stump outside the front door:rolleyes:

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/rathgar/cranford-gate-lodge-125-rathgar-road-rathgar-dublin-2441309/

I need some humour, can you spot any other 'character' aspects to this house:D

Christ, I wonder what that will actually go for? Surely nobody is stupid enough to pay 500k for that

GreeBo

Tbf it's a great location and doesn't have any of the issues a similar sized apartment would have.
The interior seems in good condition, but character filled it ain't.

I particularly enjoyed the English gymnastics regarding the amount of height that was in the height of the height of the ceiling height. Height. (Height)