Property Market 2020

hometruths

schmittel wrote: »

For me the interesting thing about lockdown is the pause button. Normally you's see prices rise fast, rise slow, flatten for a while, turn downwards slowly, faster, flatten etc etc.

i.e there is always a point that can take a while to decide is the market going to turn or not.

But I wonder has that turning point been compressed into the lockdown period. Very rare that tenants and landlords, and buyers and sellers have such an extended period to reflect on all the options.

And for all my negative sentiment on property I think an extended lockdown is the only thing that might cushion the fall.

The longer the pause is in place, the more time medics and scientists have to gain better understanding of covid, true mortality rates, mass random testing etc.

The more info they have, the more info the economists have to make predictions on effects and recoveries.

At the moment the medics and economists are just shooting in the dark, and this uncertainty will accelerate property price drops.

But if say Germany suddenly announced that they had tested 10 million citizens randomly and found a 50% infection rate with a mortality rate of 0.03%, that would change everything and lockdown would be lifted immediately.

Not saying i’ve Suddenly become bullish, this is my guess at best case scenario, which is probably still bigger drops than some posters worst case scenario!!

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Has there been any official statement on when viewings can restart? I haven't seen any. I'm quite surprised as I would have thought it was fairly essential - certainly for rentals.

Haven't seen official statement, but I guess the current plan is for Phase 2, 8 June. Probably for appointment viewings only, none groups.
Phase 2:
"You will be able to travel up to 20 kilometres away from your home"
"Up to 4 people may visit another household for a short period of time but everyone must keep at least 2 metres apart from people they don't live with."
"Workers, like those who work on their own, as well as other workers who can keep a 2 metre distance from others can return to work."

Ozark707

schmittel wrote: »

Has there been any official statement on when viewings can restart? I haven't seen any. I'm quite surprised as I would have thought it was fairly essential - certainly for rentals.

Was wondering the same myself and from what I have seen it is not included (which seems odd as a private viewing could be done with SD quite easily I would have thought).

Ozark707

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The volumes of sold houses is higher than 2019 in the first 3 months (Jan/Feb/Mar) so that looks up to date. And for those months the prices are higher than 2019. April looks incomplete. But there is no sign of price decline considering that we have been more than 2 months into Covid and rental market already took a hit

Yes this will be interesting to monitor as the weeks go by. March is probably 90% in I would think as from what I saw a few years ago 90% of registrations were within 6 weeks after the end of the month.

Marius34

Mic 1972 wrote: »

So far PPR prices have been slightly higher than last year in Dublin and in ireland, including April
I would have expected to see the start of a declining trend by now but it the opposite going by the stats below

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

Even CSO report shows small price increase on March transactions.
But most including you was arguing with me that prices were falling well before Pre-Covid.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The Sales Daft report for Q1 is out, some interesting points. Dublin was already dropping 2.6% year on year regardless of Covid

For majority in this group it was obvious that price was falling in Pre-Covid, and probably for many it's still the case that it was falling regardless.

Mic 1972

Marius34 wrote: »

Even CSO report shows small price increase on March transactions.
But most including you was arguing with me that prices were falling well before Pre-Covid.



For majority in this group it was obvious that price was falling in Pre-Covid, and probably for many it's still the case that it was falling regardless.

Are you looking for validation by digging old posts?

I look at current data and so far I'm surprised at the lack or real impact whatsoever on property market considering how many factors have changed in the last 2 months. Many people out of jobs with no access to credit, less buyers, less viewings. Surspisingly the volumes for March are higher than last year. The next few months will be interesting to monitor

Marius34

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Are you looking for validation by digging old posts?

I look at current data and so far I'm surprised at the lack or real impact whatsoever on property market considering how many factors have changed in the last 2 months. Many people out of jobs with no access to credit, less buyers, less viewings. Surspisingly the volumes for March are higher than last year. The next few months will be interesting to monitor

Sorry, I brought it up old post, just because you was discussing with me on those posts about Pre-Covid prices, including couple other guys, who where telling me about obvious significant price fall before Covid. I don't discuss that much, thus it's not difficult to remember.

Regarding the Covid times, I do expect the first impact very minor one, to be seen on April transactions, and more afterwards.

James 007

cruizer101 wrote: »

Extend to where, the space to the front and back side of the house looks to be someone elses driveway, seems you just own a small strip behind the house.

Can't imagine who is going to buy a house like that. You'd be better spending the money on a decent apartment to at least get some of the advantages of apartments.

For me, I would prefer a house over an apartment every day but this one has knocked it on its head. Its not so much the size of the place but the absence of windows at an eye level is something I could not live in. I'll have to track this one. Perhaps the window bars bring character to the house:rolleyes:

GreeBo

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Are you looking for validation by digging old posts?

I look at current data and so far I'm surprised at the lack or real impact whatsoever on property market considering how many factors have changed in the last 2 months. Many people out of jobs with no access to credit, less buyers, less viewings. Surspisingly the volumes for March are higher than last year. The next few months will be interesting to monitor

People without jobs are neither selling nor buying so won't impact the market.
This isn't going on long enough to show in the market.
Especially when renters can't be evicted and repossessions don't happen fora long time

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

People without jobs are neither selling nor buying so won't impact the market.
This isn't going on long enough to show in the market.
Especially when renters can't be evicted and repossessions don't happen fora long time

The smart, ballsy guys are buying property because unemployment is rising.

Ozark707

schmittel wrote: »

The smart, ballsy guys are buying property because unemployment is rising.

I thought they only bought property when it only started to drop and not waited until it dropped a lot more?

Assetbacked

Ozark707 wrote: »

I thought they only bought property when it only started to drop and not waited until it dropped a lot more?

Prices, if they drop, won't even start to drop (at least the data won't show price drops), until next year and not early in the year. Best case scenario there is a semblance of normality in August for jobs and life in general. A few tentative months of recovering a form of normality bringing us into the new year and then towards spring next year things start to move again and we will start to see what the appetite is for purchasing property, which then shows up in data in Q3 onwards.

hometruths

Ozark707 wrote: »

I thought they only bought property when it only started to drop and not waited until it dropped a lot more?

This time it's different.

James 007

Two buildings on the same street already seen a €70K difference between the two. Definately something happening in the market here. Clearly one Vendor is eager to sell

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/phibsborough/genesis-house-296c-north-circular-road-phibsborough-dublin-2424132/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/phibsborough/bournville-house-296b-north-circular-road-phibsborough-dublin-2424016/

The downside of who ever buys these two properties is that there are many common areas that you need to share with each other, Vincent do you mind sharing an explanation regarding this one please:rolleyes:

I prefer the southerly aspect of 296B over 296C, hence the higher price tag:D

Hubertj

James 007 wrote: »

Two buildings on the same street already seen a €70K difference between the two. Definately something happening in the market here. Clearly one Vendor is eager to sell

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/phibsborough/genesis-house-296c-north-circular-road-phibsborough-dublin-2424132/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/phibsborough/bournville-house-296b-north-circular-road-phibsborough-dublin-2424016/

The downside of who ever buys these two properties is that there are many common areas that you need to share with each other, Vincent do you mind sharing an explanation regarding this one please:rolleyes:

I prefer the southerly aspect of 296B over 296C, hence the higher price tag:D

1 of them has an extra floor. Maybe that explains the price difference? Or has price dropped on 1 or both?

lisasimpson

Can see more of a demand in rural ireland. While everyone thats working full time from home at the moment, wont continue it full time some people might do 2 or 3 days a week from home. It was definately the discussion amoung my group of friends. Only problem is the availablity of housing. I live a half hour from Limerick. In the last few yrs v hard to get somewhere to rent jn the local town and the same issue with buyers. In sure there are many towns and villages that are within 30/40 mins of a city in the same both. These towns and villages also have facilities which would help take pressure of cities in terms of school places etc.. The development of hubs in towns throughout Ireland would be great esp in terms of boardband issues. There are a couple of them around Ireland which are a great success. Also allows people more time for family and hobbies in the evening rather than hours of communting

Marius34

Marius34 wrote: »

Even CSO report shows small price increase on March transactions..

Would those houses have been sale agreed in January?

Padre_Pio

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Would those houses have been sale agreed in January?

Yes and Ireland didn't lock down until the third week of March.

Villa05

In relation to Limerick, places like Nenagh, Tipp Town, Newcastle West, Askeaton, Shannon, would have excesses and cheaper housing, to a lesser extent Kilmallock, kilfinane, bally landers and Bruff, you could go into North Kerry also and if you really wanted to spoil yourself, there is the proliferation of holiday homes in Clare/Kerry. Kilkee lost its Town status recently as population fell below a 1000, There is enough accommodation there to accommodate many multiples of that

I think local hubs could be huge for the area, brings back that co-operative spirit that spawned some of our few domestic multi national companies

Experience_day

schmittel wrote: »

In reality it means if the bank valued 22 Acacia Avenue at €500k in January, and are now asked to value the same property today, they will value it at €450k.

Nice reference

Marius34

Deleted User wrote: »

Would those houses have been sale agreed in January?

Yes, it could be big portion of March sales, that has been sale agreed in January, for second hand homes. Those that doesn't have issues, I would think it could normally take around 2 months from Sale Agreed.

Padre_Pio

I'm thinking to hold off for 6 months.

By November we'll have a clearer idea of what state the economy is in, my employers WFH policy should be clear and its probably a good time of year to be viewing houses.

hometruths

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I'm thinking to hold off for 6 months.

By November we'll have a clearer idea of what state the economy is in, my employers WFH policy should be clear and its probably a good time of year to be viewing houses.

Wise I would think.

Irrespective of economy/price fluctuations, how would your employers long term WFH policy affect your purchasing decision?

Padre_Pio

schmittel wrote: »

Wise I would think.

Irrespective of economy/price fluctuations, how would your employers long term WFH policy affect your purchasing decision?

Rumours are they'll encourage people to WHF 3 or 4 days a week so they don't need to buy more office space.
Our office was bursting at the seams before COVID, and really we don't need to be in the same building most days.
Im only looking at property within a 30 min commute, and I'd stretch it to 1 hour if I'm only in 1 or 2 days.

I could save myself 30-40k at current prices if I look further out.

Villa05

Padre_Pio wrote:

I could save myself 30-40k at current prices if I look further out.

Seems a sensible decision, may be able to double that saving over time

TheSheriff

Seeing a number of properties we had previously spotted increasing their prices now by 5-10%, likely trying to pre-empt the inevitable request for a reduction.

One in glasnevin, St. Malachys road, peviously 395k, now 450k.

Cupatae

Arthur Daley wrote: »

The Irish economy is such a seesaw balanced on the housing market that if you saw 10% drop the momentum would develop into a 30% drop, and the country would be back in recession. It really is that much of a rollercoaster for sentiment.

So houses would be back to, there actual worth then not the over priced nonsense we have now, set by ppl manipulating the market to get mass profits

Pivot Eoin

TheSheriff wrote: »

Seeing a number of properties we had previously spotted increasing their prices now by 5-10%, likely trying to pre-empt the inevitable request for a reduction.

One in glasnevin, St. Malachys road, peviously 395k, now 450k.

Yeah there's definitely been scenarios of this.

Advice is if you're serious about a Certain Property

1. Screenshot the Price Everytime it Changes
2. Screenshot the asking of Properties on same road/estate
3. Always refer to most recent similar sales on PPR and search for the listings even if they were sold over a year ago. Some of them still remain.
4. Keep an eye on similar level of demand properties on <SNIP>** auction sites **</SNIP>and how often the bids change. This will give you an actual idea of exactly how many bids actually go on a house before it's sold.

Doing this will give you context for when you submit a bid that is 20% below what some properties have come to ask on DAFT/MyHome.

It's not an exact science, but dont be one of the <10% who get the wool pulled over their eyes and their pants pulled down by an EA.

James 007

TheSheriff wrote: »

Seeing a number of properties we had previously spotted increasing their prices now by 5-10%, likely trying to pre-empt the inevitable request for a reduction.

One in glasnevin, St. Malachys road, peviously 395k, now 450k.

https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges/dublin-9/glasnevin

As per my previous post I think Vincent needs to do explaining now:rolleyes:

lisasimpson

Villa05 wrote: »

In relation to Limerick, places like Nenagh, Tipp Town, Newcastle West, Askeaton, Shannon, would have excesses and cheaper housing, to a lesser extent Kilmallock, kilfinane, bally landers and Bruff, you could go into North Kerry also and if you really wanted to spoil yourself, there is the proliferation of holiday homes in Clare/Kerry. Kilkee lost its Town status recently as population fell below a 1000, There is enough accommodation there to accommodate many multiples of that

I think local hubs could be huge for the area, brings back that co-operative spirit that spawned some of our few domestic multi national companies

No excess housing in Nenagh. Big shortage there a couple of housing estates that werent fully build before the crash have just started getting finished the last couple of years. Very hard to get somewhere to rent too. But potential to build at cheaper than cities