Property Market 2020

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

From The Economist 2018
"House prices in Dublin are 25 per cent overvalued against income, according to the Economist, which also finds in a new survey that property price growth in the city has outpaced growth in 22 other global cities over the past five years.

The finding from the influential newspaper comes on the back of continued price growth in Dublin and across the country, with prices nationally now up 79.6 per cent from their 2012 lows, with Dublin prices almost doubling, up 92.7 per cent".

against income.

You can't just ignore context.
Sure prices have increased faster than incomes...that doesn't make hour s overvalued or overpriced.

Experience_day

Villa05 wrote: »

Are we on a sustainable path? Are assets allowed to fall to there natural level? The fed is buying up mortgage backed securities at a similar rate to 2008. Why do these things need to be propped up everytime there is a downturn

Could it be they are overvalued? Is property all over the developed world overvalued

Is this why recessions are global now
Is it one massive Ponzi scheme

I agree with regards cautions supporting securitization of properties ...but I would say population has been growing quite steady and everyone needs a place to live. And if you look at desirable locations (e.g. not the Sahara desert or Russian Plains) then it's actually a pretty small footprint of globe.

World getting smaller equals more buyers. More buyers equates to higher prices over the long term

M256

Experience_day wrote: »

I agree with regards cautions supporting securitization of properties ...but I would say population has been growing quite steady and everyone needs a place to live. And if you look at desirable locations (e.g. not the Sahara desert or Russian Plains) then it's actually a pretty small footprint of globe.

World getting smaller equals more buyers. More buyers equates to higher prices over the long term

Not sure if I can agree with this statement. This is not about the growing population, this is about the way people work. Everything should be in the office, everything should in city center. WFH will massively change it.

Don’t know about the Sahara, but around big cities everywhere in the world there is lots of empty space. Once people start working from home, this whole city center thing will go away and people will start buying houses in those remote areas, more land will be available to build on, so it will become cheaper, daily commute will no longer be a factor. House prices will be formed in a very different way.

hometruths

M256 wrote: »

Not sure if I can agree with this statement. This is not about the growing population, this is about the way people work. Everything should be in the office, everything should in city center. WFH will massively change it.

Don’t know about the Sahara, but around big cities everywhere in the world there is lots of empty space. Once people start working from home, this whole city center thing will go away and people will start buying houses in those remote areas, more land will be available to build on, so it will become cheaper, daily commute will no longer be a factor. House prices will be formed in a very different way.

Agreed. All good and well to say buy now, there is undersupply in Dublin.

I think there will be a massive oversupply problem in Dublin within 15 years.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Agreed. All good and well to say buy now, there is undersupply in Dublin.

I think there will be a massive oversupply problem in Dublin within 15 years.

I agree things could change like this but I think it will take more than 15 years to provide infrastructure outside urban areas.... better public transport, better roads, more schools, etc. All this would take major planning that civil servants do not possess the competency to deliver. Look at the laughable effort if bus connects. That’s the best they can propose?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I agree things could change like this but I think it will take more than 15 years to provide infrastructure outside urban areas.... better public transport, better roads, more schools, etc. All this would take major planning that civil servants do not possess the competency to deliver. Look at the laughable effort if bus connects. That’s the best they can propose?

For sure government can do a poor job of planning and managing the trend, but it won't stop the trend from taking place.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

For sure government can do a poor job of planning and managing the trend, but it won't stop the trend from taking place.

It won’t matter what policy a government introduces. The civil servants will not be competent enough to implement.

TheSheriff

Agreed therell be more WFH in the future but I don't think Itll be a clear cut exodus from Dublin anymore , I was hopeful a month or two back as I was personally in favour of moving out of the city.

My girlfriend's company have indicated at least two days a week in the office when things are back, rotating so as to maximise social distancing.

I'm in a mid level position in my company, WFH has been ruled out. Plans in place to be fully back in the office by sept.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

Can you justify why house price inflation is greater than wage inflation,
It does indicate that property is overpriced especially when you consider that your average house is smaller and gardens are smaller

Regarding the inflation, are you selectively choosing 2013? Or how do you get that house price inflation is greater than wage inflation? It's interesting because in many countries it is a case, due to regulations, quality of house and etc.. But I'm not sure about Ireland.

As well you would need to compare likes with likes.. Saying that nowadays houses are smaller then before is already wrong, houses are bigger in fact, whereas regarding the gardens you might be right. But again you need to compare similar size cities/towns.

Overpriced - is kind of subjective thing to speak about...

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

No, but it's irrelevant to saying property is over priced. Prices are set by the market, you are essentially saying thatch market is wrong.

Property market is not a free market, it is rigged on the demand side and suffocated on the supply side thereby creating a bubble in price.

Experience_day wrote:

World getting smaller equals more buyers. More buyers equates to higher prices over the long term

Why would this be an issue in Ireland, we are the most underdeveloped in the EU by some distance

Hubertj wrote:

I agree things could change like this but I think it will take more than 15 years to provide infrastructure outside urban areas.... better public transport, better roads, more schools, etc. All this would take major planning that civil servants do not possess the competency to deliver. Look at the laughable effort if bus connects. That’s the best they can propose?

You often hear of not enough places in schools for children in cities, while in rural locations, teaching positions are lost as they have not enough students
Infrastructure would be cheaper to provide outside cities in large towns. Much of our rail infrastructure is under utilised. Wfh would mean less pressure on current high volume infrastructure

TheSheriff wrote:

Agreed therell be more WFH in the future but I don't think I'll be a clear cut exodus from Dublin anymore , I was hopefully a month or two back as I was personally in favour of moving out of the city.

I'd expect any potential exodus from the non home owning population that can work at least 2 to 3 days a week at home. It would be far less prevalent amongst homeowners within Dublin unless they had strong ties to an area outside Dublin

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

Property market is not a free market, it is rigged on the demand side and suffocated on the supply side thereby creating a bubble in price.

Rigged? Well if you call people having babies rigged then sure, its rigged.
Who is suffocating the supply? Is there someone buying up properties and boarding them up or knocking them down? Who is doing this? It should be easy for you to prove this, if its true.

Villa05 wrote: »

Why would this be an issue in Ireland, we are the most underdeveloped in the EU by some distance

Because we are a small nation, if you are expecting Wexford to have a bustling financial hub I fear you will be forever mistaken.

Villa05 wrote: »

You often hear of not enough places in schools for children in cities, while in rural locations, teaching positions are lost as they have not enough students
Infrastructure would be cheaper to provide outside cities in large towns. Much of our rail infrastructure is under utilised. Wfh would mean less pressure on current high volume infrastructure

Its far easier to solve one problem (Dublin) than solve 25 problems.
Unless of course your plan is that everyone who moves out of Dublin moves to the same place?

Villa05 wrote: »

I'd expect any potential exodus from the non home owning population that can work at least 2 to 3 days a week at home. It would be far less prevalent amongst homeowners within Dublin unless they had strong ties to an area outside Dublin

Sure, some people will, but try to put a number on it before you decide its going to impact the property market.

hometruths

Cover feature in today's Sunday Times property section is headlined "Remote Possibilities" - reports of an uptick in demand for ex Dublin properties due to WFH.

Who'd have thought it.

Snow Garden

TheSheriff wrote: »

Agreed therell be more WFH in the future but I don't think Itll be a clear cut exodus from Dublin anymore , I was hopeful a month or two back as I was personally in favour of moving out of the city.

My girlfriend's company have indicated at least two days a week in the office when things are back, rotating so as to maximise social distancing.

I'm in a mid level position in my company, WFH has been ruled out. Plans in place to be fully back in the office by sept.

It will not be an exodus and it's not black and white but the trend will expedite now and cannot be reversed.

The managers that made the decision in your company could change his mind or may not be your manager in 5/10 years. Change is constant. WFH will certainly not become less prevalent post Covid.

Plenty of capacity in rural schools by the way.

Assetbacked

schmittel wrote: »

Agreed. All good and well to say buy now, there is undersupply in Dublin.

I think there will be a massive oversupply problem in Dublin within 15 years.

I don't think oversupply has big problems associated with it, certainly the negative aspects can be offset better than with undersupply. However, it's not even worth mentioning in an Irish context at this stage, considering we are in one of the worst, if not the absolute worst, housing crisis in the Independence era.

hometruths

Assetbacked wrote: »

I don't think oversupply has big problems associated with it, certainly the negative aspects can be offset better than with undersupply. However, it's not even worth mentioning in an Irish context at this stage, considering we are in one of the worst, if not the absolute worst, housing crisis in the Independence era.

Maybe no oversupply now. But I am talking about in 15 years time.

Agree, the problems are not really that big a deal when it happens.

Experience_day

M256 wrote: »

Not sure if I can agree with this statement. This is not about the growing population, this is about the way people work. Everything should be in the office, everything should in city center. WFH will massively change it.

Don’t know about the Sahara, but around big cities everywhere in the world there is lots of empty space. Once people start working from home, this whole city center thing will go away and people will start buying houses in those remote areas, more land will be available to build on, so it will become cheaper, daily commute will no longer be a factor. House prices will be formed in a very different way.

I was speaking on a wider scale and generally. The world is a finite place and we have a system based on infinite growth. Land will become more scare and prices will rise. Obviously over time and still subject to fluctuations.

And I think people miss that outsourcing becomes a lot more prevalent when people are no longer needed in a particular geography..

Assetbacked

schmittel wrote: »

Maybe no oversupply now. But I am talking about in 15 years time.

Agree, the problems are not really that big a deal when it happens.

If we have oversupply in 15 years, something must have gons terribly wrong in the country; net emigration for years, nuclear incident in the UK etc!

cnocbui

With house prices head back down below their supply cost, I'm sure we are in great danger of a massive building boom leading to imminent oversupply.

Theres been a chronic housing shortage for years, many people unemployed could never buy anyway. This isnt 2007 all over again with every Tom and dick getting 100% mortgages to buy a 2nd "investment" home.

People still need homes. If you haven't lost your job (and many on a position to buy have not) then yeah it's a falling market and take care but it also means a bargain can be had.

hometruths

Assetbacked wrote: »

If we have oversupply in 15 years, something must have gons terribly wrong in the country; net emigration for years, nuclear incident in the UK etc!

I'm talking about oversupply in Dublin not nationwide - specifically the typical suburban family home.

TheSheriff

While I do think houses prices are going to fall in the region of 10-20%; what does worry me slightly is everyone on the street is now talking about "picking up a bargain".

I know in my friend circle and work circle who would all be on 50-100k salaries, dual income etc. are now gearing up to purchase because of imminent falls, whereas a few months back they had held off and and this may in fact have the opposite effect and keep prices up.

None of these people are from Dublin, but they like many I assume would like to live in Dublin because of the lifestyle it affords. These people who have rented here for 5-10 years do not want to return to the leafy countryside.

I just hope people use the uncertainty to negotiate hard and save themselves a few 10's of thousands off the asking.

hometruths

Assetbacked wrote: »

If we have oversupply in 15 years, something must have gons terribly wrong in the country; net emigration for years, nuclear incident in the UK etc!

Well apparently we have gone from oversupply to undersupply in less than a decade, so I am unsure why we could not go back again in the next 15 years!

JimmyVik

schmittel wrote: »

Well apparently we have gone from oversupply to undersupply in less than a decade, so I am unsure why we could not go back again in the next 15 years!

Ive been reading property threads here from 2011.
Very entertaining actually.

cnocbui

TheSheriff wrote: »

While I do think houses prices are going to fall in the region of 10-20%; what does worry me slightly is everyone on the street is now talking about "picking up a bargain".

I know in my friend circle and work circle who would all be on 50-100k salaries, dual income etc. are now gearing up to purchase because of imminent falls, whereas a few months back they had held off and and this may in fact have the opposite effect and keep prices up.

None of these people are from Dublin, but they like many I assume would like to live in Dublin because of the lifestyle it affords. These people who have rented here for 5-10 years do not want to return to the leafy countryside.

I just hope people use the uncertainty to negotiate hard and save themselves a few 10's of thousands off the asking.

Where does this circle of friends currently live? Where do they work?

I suspect this might come as a surprise to you, but not everyone would necessarily consider living in a capital city an improvement in lifestyle. There are some fairly well off internationally famous people who live here or have houses and they always seem to be outside of Dublin. One lives on an island in a lake, another in a castle, another in an isolated house outside Cork.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

...........

I know in my friend circle and work circle who would all be on 50-100k salaries, dual income etc. are now gearing up to purchase because of imminent falls, whereas a few months back they had held off and and this may in fact have the opposite effect and keep prices up. .........

Where were all these folk from 2012 to 2016 ish ?
Surely they'd have been on similar enough salaries etc unless they are all just turned 30 now?
You've no friends or work colleagues in your circle who own their own home but they are all on decent enough cash?

ebayissues

Augeo wrote: »

You've no friends or work colleagues in your circle who own their own home but they are all on decent enough cash?

Some people on on decent can't buy right away.


Take a graduate working for those tech/PE/VC firms with a salaray and benefits of between 55k - 65k. This grad till needs to save a deposit which would tke a number of years - assuming they get an exemption. Also some new grads who earn this might not even be looking to buy right away.

Augeo wrote: »

Where were all these folk from 2012 to 2016 ish ?
Surely they'd have been on similar enough salaries etc unless they are all just turned 30 now?

My group of friends are in this bracket...4yrs go they would be out of college. They're earn between the 50k - 100K bracket. They are currently renting.

MrMusician18

schmittel wrote: »

Cover feature in today's Sunday Times property section is headlined "Remote Possibilities" - reports of an uptick in demand for ex Dublin properties due to WFH.

Who'd have thought it.

Not in the least surprised. I know of one small block of apartments <10 units where 1/3 of them have been vacated this last few weeks.

Of those vacated I know one was an overseas tech worker laid off and another was a couple WFH that decided they now didn't need to be in Dublin anymore. The other vacancy was ordinary churn.

A small sample granted, but I fully expect a lot of property to come to rental market because of covid after the economy reopens.

MrMusician18

Augeo wrote: »

Where were all these folk from 2012 to 2016 ish ?
Surely they'd have been on similar enough salaries etc unless they are all just turned 30 now?
You've no friends or work colleagues in your circle who own their own home but they are all on decent enough cash?

What sheriff is missing here is that these people did also exist during the last recession (even if they weren't the same individuals). The reason they were not able to fully capitalise on the crash was because they couldn't access credit.

TheSheriff

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What sheriff is missing here is that these people did also exist during the last recession (even if they weren't the same individuals). The reason they were not able to fully capitalise on the crash was because they couldn't access credit.

No I totally understand this, I don't expect them all to be able to purchase.

Some will, some wont get credit.

My point was that a large portion of people I know are not waiting to pick up a bargain. They are hopeful, and likely will as soon as they can.

Believe me, I fully expect prices to fall, I want prices to fall. I am trying to purchase a house myself.

ebayissues

ebayissues wrote: »

Some people on on decent can't buy right away.


Take a graduate working for those tech/PE/VC firms with a salaray and benefits of between 55k - 65k. This grad till needs to save a deposit which would tke a number of years - assuming they get an exemption. Also some new grads who earn this might not even be looking to buy right away.








My group of friends are in this bracket...4yrs go they would be out of college. They're earn between the 50k - 100K bracket. They are currently renting.

that's all lovely but he was mentioning folk who were coupled up on 50 to 100k and looking to buy but holding off.

Not many folk fit into that criteria that were in college 4 years ago.

Also he mentioned friends and work colleagues.