Property Market 2020

TheSheriff

cnocbui wrote: »

Where does this circle of friends currently live? Where do they work?

I suspect this might come as a surprise to you, but not everyone would necessarily consider living in a capital city an improvement in lifestyle. There are some fairly well off internationally famous people who live here or have houses and they always seem to be outside of Dublin. One lives on an island in a lake, another in a castle, another in an isolated house outside Cork.

Actually this doesn't surprise me at all, not in the slightest.

If I could leave Dublin tomorrow I would; I've just gone sale agreed on a house in Dublin. I don't have any particular love for Dublin BUT, I earn twice as much in Dublin as I would where I am from. I would be in the 75k + bracket. So would many of my friends, we are all late 20's, early 30s.

The fact is many people value large salaries, career progression etc. The majority of my friends in Dublin are blow-ins, none are from here. If I could get the same salary in Cork, Limerick etc. I would be gone, out of the rat race. But I cannot, I looked into it when first starting our house hunt. We decided that for the purposes of building wealth (i.e. a house, security, savings etc), Dublin was the best option for the immediate future.

Myself and my circle of friends all work in healthcare, pharma, tech MNCs etc. All would be late 20s, early 30s. All have been renting the previous 5-10 years and all would be on 50-100k.

I fully hope prices in Dublin fall; all I am saying is when everyone I know is now talking about jumping on the property ladder in Dublin because there is a slump its not good for prices falling (granted, as above, access to credit will be an issue). So far none of myself or my friends have been impacted by Covid.

Not trying to get into a discussion of the merits of Dublin versus. the rest of the country. The fact is many of us who have chosen career are tied to the city; I cannot see that changing immediately; over time yes, but not immediately.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

......... If I could get the same salary in Cork..... I would be gone, out of the rat race. .........

The rat race is nationwide.
Cork and Galway aren't much behind Dublin.
Healthcare and pharma salaries in Cork aren't lagging behind Dublin to any great extent.

TheSheriff wrote: »

..........We decided that for the purposes of building wealth (i.e. a house, security, savings etc), Dublin was the best option for the immediate future. .............

You won't build wealth by borrowing fnck loads to buy a house.

TheSheriff

Augeo wrote: »

The rat race is nationwide.
Cork and Galway aren't much behind Dublin.



You won't build wealth by borrowing fnck loads to buy a house.

Yes, but its relative for us. We could move to Cork/Limerick and get a cheaper house and half the salary. Is that any better? I don't know, maybe it is. The point is, we cannot get our Dublin salaries based in Cork, Limerick, Clare - "Insert X" whereever people are from.

I think (and would hope) this will change over time, but for now, these roles are tied to Dublin.

I would love to f**k off back home and be closer to family, but equally, we've built a life here over the past 5 years with friends, connections etc.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

Yes, but its relative for us. We could move to Cork/Limerick and get a cheaper house and half the salary. Is that any better? I don't know, maybe it is.

What are you doing that pays 75K+ in Dublin that pays under 40k in Cork?

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

I know in my friend circle and work circle who would all be on 50-100k salaries, dual income etc. are now gearing up to purchase because of imminent falls, whereas a few months back they had held off and and this may in fact have the opposite effect and keep prices up.

Even for Dublin, that is a salary that puts you in the top 30/40% of income earners. Is that a bracket that would normally struggle to buy a house?
Are prices overvalued? To a rational person, one would have to say Yes, very much so

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

Yes, but its relative for us. We could move to Cork/Limerick and get a cheaper house and half the salary. Is that any better? I don't know, maybe it is.

Limerick/Cork have some of the highest salaries in the country, with lower living costs, they get to enjoy more of that salary

TheSheriff

Villa05 wrote: »

Limerick/Cork have some of the highest salaries in the country, with lower living costs, they get to enjoy more of that salary

Ah look, I don't know if it has any relevance to what we are discussing. Maybe we are looking for different jobs types. I don't think myself and my friends are all naive either tough, we are all in Dublin because the salaries are higher/career progression is better.

Its a moot point, all I was saying is my group of friends are now looking to hop on the property ladder if/when the opportunity presents. That's all. It's likely they wont all get access to credit, all I meant was perhaps its a micro view of wider groups. Who knows. All speculation at this point.

I mentioned before we've negotiated down the price of the house we are buying due to covid. We might get a few more % if we waited another few months, but mentally we are sick of looking/renting and want to have security.

Would I give it all up tomorrow if I could get the same job in Limerick/Cork with the same opportunities. Absolutely

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

Ah look, I don't know if it has any relevance to what we are discussing. Maybe we are looking for different jobs types. I don't think myself and my friends are all naive either tough, we are all in Dublin because the salaries are higher/career progression is better.

Its a moot point, all I was saying is my group of friends are now looking to hop on the property ladder if/when the opportunity presents. That's all. It's likely they wont all get access to credit, all I meant was perhaps its a micro view of wider groups. Who knows. All speculation at this point.

I mentioned before we've negotiated down the price of the house we are buying due to covid. We might get a few more % if we waited another few months, but mentally we are sick of looking/renting and want to have security.

Would I give it all up tomorrow if I could get the same job in Limerick/Cork with the same opportunities. Absolutely

What sort of properties and profiles are you and our friends looking at. City centre/SCD/apartments houses. Are you married/singles/families etc?

ie anecdotally what are the average late 20s/early 30s buyers going for at the minute? whatever they can get within a budget or do they have something more specific in mind?

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

Even for Dublin, that is a salary that puts you in the top 30/40% of income earners. Is that a bracket that would normally struggle to buy a house?
Are prices overvalued? To a rational person, one would have to say Yes, very much so

In what way are are house prices in Dublin over-valued? Compared to what? Dublin is a capital city, not some small provincial hamlet. How many people living in London, or Paris, working at what you do, can afford to buy a house more easily than you can?

landofthetree

cnocbui wrote: »

In what way are are house prices in Dublin over-valued? Compared to what? Dublin is a capital city, not some small provincial hamlet. How many people living in London, or Paris, working at what you do, can afford to buy a house more easily than you can?

Those cities have a much better public transport system than Dublin.

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

Even for Dublin, that is a salary that puts you in the top 30/40% of income earners. Is that a bracket that would normally struggle to buy a house?
Are prices overvalued? To a rational person, one would have to say Yes, very much so

Top 30/40%?

Try top 10% if you're on >60K Euro...

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/high-earner-ireland-755580-Jan2013/

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

What sort of properties and profiles are you and our friends looking at. City centre/SCD/apartments houses. Are you married/singles/families etc?

ie anecdotally what are the average late 20s/early 30s buyers going for at the minute? whatever they can get within a budget or do they have something more specific in mind?

We've gone for a 3 bed semi D, nice sized garden, close to good transport links etc. No interest on our part to live in or near the city centre. If I can get in relatively quickly on the dart/Luas we are happy. We value space more than anything, nice neighbourhood etc.

We started about a year ago looking at apartments, but felt we wanted a garden etc. I know a single friend of mine has sale agreed on an apartment - likely as he is a single income.

TheSheriff

Villa05 wrote: »

Limerick/Cork have some of the highest salaries in the country, with lower living costs, they get to enjoy more of that salary

Also do you have any link to the source for this ? Genuinely interested.

cnocbui

landofthetree wrote: »

Those cities have a much better public transport system than Dublin.

So?

cnocbui

TheSheriff wrote: »

Also do you have any link to the source for this ? Genuinely interested.

My wife is a lecturer at UL. She's not the only one. She paid €100 K for a two bedroom house within walking distance of the city centre. At the bottom of the dip, mind.

Claw Hammer

cnocbui wrote: »

My wife is a lecturer at UL. She's not the only one. She paid €100 K for a two bedroom house within walking distance of the city centre. At the bottom of the dip, mind.

What has that got to do with high salaries in Cork and Galway?

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

We've gone for a 3 bed semi D, nice sized garden, close to good transport links etc. No interest on our part to live in or near the city centre. If I can get in relatively quickly on the dart/Luas we are happy. We value space more than anything, nice neighbourhood etc.

We started about a year ago looking at apartments, but felt we wanted a garden etc. I know a single friend of mine has sale agreed on an apartment - likely as he is a single income.

3 bed semi in the Dublin suburbs. And I guess judging by your posts if in 15 years time, with decent career progression under your belt, you could keep the salary and relocate somewhere else thanks to WFH you would?

Just one example of many in which houses in Dublin are likely to be vacated.

Cumulatively I think there's a fair chance that they will pass a tipping point whereby they are being vacated faster than they are filled.

Leading to oversupply.

cnocbui

Claw Hammer wrote: »

What has that got to do with high salaries in Cork and Galway?

Since when was Limerick in Galway?

Claw Hammer

cnocbui wrote: »

Since when was Limerick in Galway?

It wasn't but the fact of someone buying a house has nothing to do with salary levels.

cnocbui

Claw Hammer wrote: »

It wasn't but the fact of someone buying a house has nothing to do with salary levels.

How much do you think university lecturers with a Phd. get paid then?

Claw Hammer

cnocbui wrote: »

How much do you think university lecturers with a Phd. get paid then?

They get paid very little but the fact of one buying a property does not have any link with the issue of salary levels generally in particular cities.

cnocbui

Claw Hammer wrote: »

They get paid very little but the fact of one buying a property does not have any link with the issue of salary levels generally in particular cities.

Ok; how about someone buying a turn-key house in walking distance of a city centre for 1.2 times their annual salary. Does that help you get it?

Experience_day

Deleted User wrote: »

Top 30/40%?

Try top 10% if you're on >60K Euro...

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/high-earner-ireland-755580-Jan2013/

I don't think they are right on that. I'm higher than 60k and I certainly would not put myself into top 10%....

Claw Hammer

cnocbui wrote: »

Ok; how about someone buying a turn-key house in walking distance of a city centre for 1.2 times their annual salary. Does that help you get it?

What has that got to do with salary levels generally?

addaword

cnocbui wrote: »

Ok; how about someone buying a turn-key house in walking distance of a city centre for 1.2 times their annual salary. Does that help you get it?

Indeed I know a teacher who bought investment properties for 1 years salary each during the bottom of the downturn. Fair play to him. You could get fine investment properties for less than 50k at one stage in parts of the country.

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

Limerick/Cork have some of the highest salaries in the country, with lower living costs, they get to enjoy more of that salary

cnocbui wrote: »

Ok; how about someone buying a turn-key house in walking distance of a city centre for 1.2 times their annual salary. Does that help you get it?

Claw Hammer wrote: »

What has that got to do with salary levels generally?

Sorry, I can't do your thinking for you.

Claw Hammer

cnocbui wrote: »

Sorry, I can't do your thinking for you.

It seems to me that you should be doing the thinking.

Graham

Mod Note

Cop on you two.

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

3 bed semi in the Dublin suburbs. And I guess judging by your posts if in 15 years time, with decent career progression under your belt, you could keep the salary and relocate somewhere else thanks to WFH you would?

Just one example of many in which houses in Dublin are likely to be vacated.

Cumulatively I think there's a fair chance that they will pass a tipping point whereby they are being vacated faster than they are filled.

Leading to oversupply.

Hmmm this I am not so sure about, it's too far away to tell. Right now I can say yes, I would like to live closer to my parents but I am purchasing in Dublin as this is where my career currently is (and we got a reduction on the asking price on a house we really like). It also stops us having to rent.

We debated it at length when starting our search and there is more to Dublin than the salary and jobs (for us at least) We enjoy the city. There is more variety, things to do etc. I know when I meet old friends from home I constantly get the 'why would you want to live in dublin' attacks; it's all personal preference, but those remarks usually come from those who haven't lived here.

I would like to move, but equally I am not horrified at the thought of having a life here and I wouldn't look back and think god I should have left sooner.

I don't see the mass exodus. Perhaps some will, but en masse I certainly wouldn't think so. Not people who have been here and are settled with kids etc.

GreeBo

landofthetree wrote: »

Those cities have a much better public transport system than Dublin.

How does that answer the question?
Cities with better transport should be cheaper to buy in since you can commute more easily, that helps his point not yours.