Property Market 2020

GreeBo

More repeats of overvalued property in Dublin/Ireland with zero to back it up.
Everytime someone asks about it the answer is totally unrelated to the question...getting old lads, answer the question or stop spouting this "fact".

hometruths

Comparing the values in Paris and London to Dublin simply on the basis that they should be comparable because all are European capitals, is like comparing Finglas and Clontarf because they are both Northside suburbs.

The idea that property values in Dublin should be similiar to those in London is the sort of deluded hubris that fuelled the last bubble.

Donald Trump

GreeBo wrote: »

How does that answer the question?
Cities with better transport should be cheaper to buy in since you can commute more easily, that helps his point not yours.

Think of it this way. Would you pay more for a house that was within 2 mins walk of a luas station or one that had no transport and which would necessitate the purchase of a car (or two) if both were equidistant from the city centre

hometruths

Donald Trump wrote: »

Think of it this way. Would you pay more for a house that was within 2 mins walk of a luas station or one that had no transport and which would necessitate the purchase of a car (or two) if both were equidistant from the city centre

Pfft. Public transport. If property values always go up it doesn't matter what you pay, when you pay, or where you pay for it.

Just as long you're not renting.

cnocbui

schmittel wrote: »

Comparing the values in Paris and London to Dublin simply on the basis that they should be comparable on the basis all are European capitals, is like comparing Finglas and Clontarf because they are both Northside suburbs.

The idea that property values in Dublin should be similiar to those in London is the sort of deluded hubris that fuelled the last bubble.

Do you think it's just London and Paris? Dublin apartments are cheaper to buy per square meter, than in 57 other major world cities, many of which aren't even capital cities:

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/city_price_rankings?itemId=100

No hubris involved, just inconvenient reality.

Hubertj

As long as prices don’t fall too much in D4. I don’t want riffraff moving into my neighbourhood.

hometruths

cnocbui wrote: »

Do you think it's just London and Paris? Dublin apartments are cheaper to buy per square meter, than in 57 other major world cities, many of which aren't even capital cities:

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/city_price_rankings?itemId=100

No hubris involved, just inconvenient reality.

I'm not sure I get the point. Are you saying you prices in Dublin should be higher, because currently they are cheaper than San Francisco, which isn't even a capital city?

Experience_day

Experience_day wrote: »

I don't think they are right on that. I'm higher than 60k and I certainly would not put myself into top 10%....

I think it's right relative to the market but in terms of actually feeling that way, I totally agree. Squeezed middle. Large varied range!

Shelga

Do people think there is any point doing virtual viewings and offering prices way less than the asking, just yet?

Something like this: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/fairview/106-fairview-close-fairview-dublin-2477263/#img=8

would have been way out of my budget a few months ago. Now I'm toying with the idea of viewing places like this, and just offering around €240k and seeing what happens. That particular place is on sale for nearly €60k more than the sellers purchased it for in 2015, which I think is a bit rich.

We're in unchartered territory, do I suck up living at home for another 6-12 months or just start making lowball offers on places? I doubt that place is going to sell for anywhere near asking, with the new reality we live in, plus if the sellers are looking to upsize, they will also be offering way less on whatever property they bid on.

Mic 1972

Shelga wrote: »

Do people think there is any point doing virtual viewings and offering prices way less than the asking, just yet?

Something like this: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/fairview/106-fairview-close-fairview-dublin-2477263/#img=8

would have been way out of my budget a few months ago. Now I'm toying with the idea of viewing places like this, and just offering around €240k and seeing what happens. That particular place is on sale for nearly €60k more than the sellers purchased it for in 2015, which I think is a bit rich.

We're in unchartered territory, do I suck up living at home for another 6-12 months or just start making lowball offers on places? I doubt that place is going to sell for anywhere near asking, with the new reality we live in, plus if the sellers are looking to upsize, they will also be offering way less on whatever property they bid on.

Asking prices have been increasing since beginning of the year, Covid didn't seem to have an impact on the trend - al least not yet
I called an agency last week for a 1bed apt that was up for 220K and they said they already had an offer for 235K, they were also doing normal physical viewings with social distancing

Snow Garden

Shelga wrote: »

We're in unchartered territory, do I suck up living at home for another 6-12 months or just start making lowball offers on places? I doubt that place is going to sell for anywhere near asking, with the new reality we live in, plus if the sellers are looking to upsize, they will also be offering way less on whatever property they bid on.

Totally and utterly unchartered territory. This is unprecedented.
Unchartered? - it's more like Columbus sailing west aimlessly and worrying about monsters or falling off the edge of the world.
I think you would be mad to consider buying until you see how this Covid19 crisis is going to play out long term. You wont have a notion of that until early 2021.
House prices are only going one way, the question is how much will they drop. The market now is completely artificial (e.g. govt is paying wages, mortgage amnesties etc), wait until things 'stabilise' and then try and suss the lie of the land. Remember we are only 2 months into 'lockdown', 2 months. You won't miss out on any bargains between now and early 2021. I think 2021 will be the worst year for depreciation myself. 2022 wont be far behind.

If you want some guidance on how the future may play out economically wait until the Q2 results for large corporations globally and within Ireland. Those results and warnings published in mid July will be very telling.
.

Hubertj

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/esri-redouble-efforts-to-stop-damaging-roller-coaster-of-irish-house-price-boom-and-bust-1000031.html

Assetbacked

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/esri-redouble-efforts-to-stop-damaging-roller-coaster-of-irish-house-price-boom-and-bust-1000031.html

The interview with the ESRI guy quotes that the KBC report of a 12% drop in housing this year but an 8% rebound next year is realistic. That sounds like soft landing talk and is very much dependent on a best case economic scenario. I don't see how the price drops will even manifest in data until Q2 reports next year there's just too much uncertainty for meaningful house transaction data to come available for the rest of this year.

Also, I don't understand this point;

In an interview with the Irish Examiner, professor McQuinn said the think tank was fianalising its own price projections but the fallout of the Covid-19 crisis would dampen housing transactions and more significantly could be long lasting not on the demand for housing but on the supply of new homes because of the disruption caused by the necessary closures of building sites over the last two months.

Building sites are getting back to work tomorrow albeit slowly but will be up and running properly in the next few weeks. Loans are being made available for builders to get back to work too. However, demand has dissipated and is going to stay muted for longer as the economy only opens properly in August. People's focus won't be on buying a house for a number of months as they have other priorities like obtaining certainty with their job situation and whether their kids can go back to school in the autumn!

addaword

Snow Garden wrote: »

Totally and utterly unchartered territory. This is unprecedented.
Unchartered? - it's more like Columbus sailing west aimlessly and worrying about monsters or falling off the edge of the world.
I think you would be mad to consider buying until you see how this Covid19 crisis is going to play out long term. You wont have a notion of that until early 2021.
House prices are only going one way, the question is how much will they drop. The market now is completely artificial (e.g. govt is paying wages, mortgage amnesties etc), wait until things 'stabilise' and then try and suss the lie of the land. Remember we are only 2 months into 'lockdown', 2 months. You won't miss out on any bargains between now and early 2021. I think 2021 will be the worst year for depreciation myself. 2022 wont be far behind.

If you want some guidance on how the future may play out economically wait until the Q2 results for large corporations globally and within Ireland. Those results and warnings published in mid July will be very telling.
.

And indeed wait for the emergency budget from our government later this year. Government borrowing is unsustainable. There will be changes. Interesting times ahead.

RedXIV

Saw a house that my wife and I actually had the deposit for, down the country where I'd like to live but I'm wondering if this is just the start of it. My wife and I are luckily both still unaffected by covid and had expected to be saving another year or so at least for a deposit but a price reduction would certainly be welcome.

Will be very interested to see what happens in the next few months but our big problem is we can't go viewing anywhere until the restrictions are lifted.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

The interview with the ESRI guy quotes that the KBC report of a 12% drop in housing this year but an 8% rebound next year is realistic. That sounds like soft landing talk and is very much dependent on a best case economic scenario. I don't see how the price drops will even manifest in data until Q2 reports next year there's just too much uncertainty for meaningful house transaction data to come available for the rest of this year.

Also, I don't understand this point;



Building sites are getting back to work tomorrow albeit slowly but will be up and running properly in the next few weeks. Loans are being made available for builders to get back to work too. However, demand has dissipated and is going to stay muted for longer as the economy only opens properly in August. People's focus won't be on buying a house for a number of months as they have other priorities like obtaining certainty with their job situation and whether their kids can go back to school in the autumn!

The CIF said that while sites are reopening only about 25% of workers will be on those sites. With restrictions in place productivity will be impacted further delaying the completion of projects.
I agree with your point on -12% to +8%. The drop is fairly significant in such a short time frame but the increase next year sounds strange.

GreeBo

Erm Dublin is expensive because it's a capital city with high demand... Not rocket science.

If you have 5 houses and 6 buyers, prices go up.
Same is true for 5 of anything with 6 buyers actually

FVP3

GreeBo wrote: »

No, but it's irrelevant to saying property is over priced.
Prices are set by the market, you are essentially saying thatch market is wrong.

ECON 101 rears its ugly stupid head again.

That prices are set by the market doesn't tell you whether they are over-valued or not. I mean prices in 2008 were near double 2012. Both were market prices.

Of course in 2008 anybody who suggested prices were over valued was shouted down by a chorus of "the market is always right" cretinism. As dumb as that argument was then at least they didnt have hindsight. Its pretty fcking remakrable to say houses cant be over valued a mere decade or so later.

Assetbacked

https://propertydistrict.ie/sunday-property-round-up-may-17th-2020/

A property news story roundup of the past week from Property District Ireland, to take us through the last hours before the new week.

Villa05

cnocbui wrote:

Do you think it's just London and Paris? Dublin apartments are cheaper to buy per square meter, than in 57 other major world cities, many of which aren't even capital cities:

Ahh stop, come down of yer high horses and put them in their stables down in Smithfield.
Paris and London incl suburbs have populations well in excess of our country. They have magnificent architecture, while one of Dublins anthems is Dirty oul town.

There wealth is generated from indigenous industry while a significant proportion of Dublins wealth is from foreign companies who can move anytime they want.
The same can be said about most of those cities on that list

A more accurate comparison would be Edinburgh or even Belfast

Poland is pricey

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

The CIF said that while sites are reopening only about 25% of workers will be on those sites. With restrictions in place productivity will be impacted further delaying the completion of projects.
I agree with your point on -12% to +8%. The drop is fairly significant in such a short time frame but the increase next year sounds strange.

Self builds have been going on for weeks near me. Obviously not flat out but trades have been working on them.

I also noticed 2 sites locally, that were at wall plate level for 2/3 years, have suddenly started construction again. I guess people got them to wall plate level to satisfy planning and now aim to finish the build and sell before the bottom falls out of the market.

wassie

I know of several large sites that contractor is hoping will be running 100% in 2 weeks.

wassie

DUPLICATE DELETED

Donald Trump

Snow Garden wrote: »

Self builds have been going on for weeks near me. Obviously not flat out but trades have been working on them.

I also noticed 2 sites locally, that were at wall plate level for 2/3 years, have suddenly started construction again. I guess people got them to wall plate level to satisfy planning and now aim to finish the build and sell before the bottom falls out of the market.

Maybe it depends on the local authority but I think that now the house needs to be finished as in roofed and windows and doors within the time limit.

Interested Observer

Villa05 wrote: »

Ahh stop, come down of yer high horses and put them in their stables down in Smithfield.
Paris and London incl suburbs have populations well in excess of our country. They have magnificent architecture, while one of Dublins anthems is Dirty oul town.

There wealth is generated from indigenous industry while a significant proportion of Dublins wealth is from foreign companies who can move anytime they want.
The same can be said about most of those cities on that list

A more accurate comparison would be Edinburgh or even Belfast

Poland is pricey

Song is about Salford, not Dublin.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Ahh stop, come down of yer high horses and put them in their stables down in Smithfield.
Paris and London incl suburbs have populations well in excess of our country. They have magnificent architecture, while one of Dublins anthems is Dirty oul town.

There wealth is generated from indigenous industry while a significant proportion of Dublins wealth is from foreign companies who can move anytime they want.
The same can be said about most of those cities on that list

A more accurate comparison would be Edinburgh or even Belfast

Poland is pricey

Compare dublin to Belfast? Cop yourself on.

GreeBo

FVP3 wrote: »

ECON 101 rears its ugly stupid head again.

That prices are set by the market doesn't tell you whether they are over-valued or not. I mean prices in 2008 were near double 2012. Both were market prices.

Of course in 2008 anybody who suggested prices were over valued was shouted down by a chorus of "the market is always right" cretinism. As dumb as that argument was then at least they didnt have hindsight. Its pretty fcking remakrable to say houses cant be over valued a mere decade or so later.

Ehh yeah, prices change based on market and demand.
Are you expecting to pay the same now as you did in 1985? If not, why not?

You can't use the fact that prices went down to prove they were overvalued...otherwise I can use the fact they went up to prove they were undervalued!

Houses have a current value, that's it.
You've still not answered the most basic question about value btw.

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

Ahh stop, come down of yer high horses and put them in their stables down in Smithfield.
Paris and London incl suburbs have populations well in excess of our country. They have magnificent architecture, while one of Dublins anthems is Dirty oul town.

There wealth is generated from indigenous industry while a significant proportion of Dublins wealth is from foreign companies who can move anytime they want.
The same can be said about most of those cities on that list

A more accurate comparison would be Edinburgh or even Belfast

Poland is pricey

Paris and London are larger then Dublin too and actually Dublin has a higher population density than London.

Btw, the above are facts, your post is nonsense ranting and an attack on your capital city, which, yet again ignores the most basic question that you have been ignoring for days now.

Deub

Assetbacked wrote: »

The interview with the ESRI guy quotes that the KBC report of a 12% drop in housing this year but an 8% rebound next year is realistic. That sounds like soft landing talk and is very much dependent on a best case economic scenario. I don't see how the price drops will even manifest in data until Q2 reports next year there's just too much uncertainty for meaningful house transaction data to come available for the rest of this year.

Also, I don't understand this point;



Building sites are getting back to work tomorrow albeit slowly but will be up and running properly in the next few weeks. Loans are being made available for builders to get back to work too. However, demand has dissipated and is going to stay muted for longer as the economy only opens properly in August. People's focus won't be on buying a house for a number of months as they have other priorities like obtaining certainty with their job situation and whether their kids can go back to school in the autumn!

The -12% in 2020 and +8% in 2021 makes me smile. The Chair of the Federal Reserve (FED) said yesterday:

“ It’s going to take a while for us to get back,...The economy will recover. It may take a while…. It could stretch through the end of next year. We really don’t know.”

The last sentence is important.

However some “Economics” are able to predict the Irish property market. They should apply to the FED, they are looking for people like them right now.

LuckyLloyd

Shelga wrote: »

Do people think there is any point doing virtual viewings and offering prices way less than the asking, just yet?

Something like this: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/fairview/106-fairview-close-fairview-dublin-2477263/#img=8

would have been way out of my budget a few months ago. Now I'm toying with the idea of viewing places like this, and just offering around €240k and seeing what happens. That particular place is on sale for nearly €60k more than the sellers purchased it for in 2015, which I think is a bit rich.

We're in unchartered territory, do I suck up living at home for another 6-12 months or just start making lowball offers on places? I doubt that place is going to sell for anywhere near asking, with the new reality we live in, plus if the sellers are looking to upsize, they will also be offering way less on whatever property they bid on.

Start making lowball offers, particularly if you have cash and are ready to go. The worst they can say is no (or sit on it stewing in annoyance).