Property Market 2020

Mad_maxx

ive no idea how far houses fall but i think we could be in for a long drawn out drop over several years so , its unlikely we have a " V " shaped recovery where things bounce back to where they were after a very sharp drop , a need to adapt to a " new normal " is more likely

thus making the economy less productive , this means less wealth creation = less disposable income

gangbusters growth is likely gone for several years , this feeds into the appetite for buying

GreeBo

Deub wrote: »

The -12% in 2020 and +8% in 2021 makes me smile. The Chair of the Federal Reserve (FED) said yesterday:

“ It’s going to take a while for us to get back,...The economy will recover. It may take a while…. It could stretch through the end of next year. We really don’t know.”

The last sentence is important.

That quote doesnt in any way disagree with your first sentence.

8% in 2021 would still leave it lower than now (if there is a 12% drop this year)
The chair said it could stretch to the end of 2021, which is more bullish than the quote you are trying to disprove!

Markitron

enableMacr0s wrote: »

That's bad but imagine paying 500k for a house in Corduff? I can't provide a link due to being a new member but just Google "4 westway rise blanchardstown dublin" and click on the link to the daft.ie website.

For those unaware it is one of the worst areas in the country. I can't help but nearly indulge in schadenfreude in what this crash is going to do to the housing market and EAs/Vendors like the ones provided in the link. I don't wish miss fortune on anyone but this is taking the p!ss.

Even pre-covid they were out of their minds thinking they were gonna get 500k for that. You would do well to get half that.

Is massively over-pricing a house some EA strategy I am unaware of?

Blueshoe

There is a lovely new housing estate with about 25 houses in it almost completed up the road from me. Solar panels on the roof of each house too. Prime location.
Only found out after I expressed interest that all of the houses are social.
Maybe next time

Deub

GreeBo wrote: »

That quote doesnt in any way disagree with your first sentence.

8% in 2021 would still leave it lower than now (if there is a 12% drop this year)
The chair said it could stretch to the end of 2021, which is more bullish than the quote you are trying to disprove!

I agree with the post I quoted. Like most people, you focused on the first part but the important part is where he says they really don’t know what will happen.

GreeBo

Deub wrote: »

I agree with the post I quoted. Like most people, you focused on the first part but the important part is where he says they really don’t know what will happen.

Fair enough, though "makes me smile" would indicate to me that you disagree with it.

No one knows what will happen really, which is why people stating that there will be 30% drops and a mass exodus out of Dublin is misguided.

PokeHerKing

Interested Observer wrote: »

Song is about Salford, not Dublin.

That kind of proves his point though doesn't it! :pac:

I love Dublin though, so I don't completely agree with OP.

hometruths

The -12% in 2020 and +8% in 2021 makes me smile because I think it speaks volumes about Irish property.

Rational markets are expected to post much smaller but consecutive falls eg Belgium -3% in 2020, -2% in 2021.

The yoyoing that is accepted as normal should be a red flag.

GreeBo

GreeBo wrote: »

Fair enough, though "makes me smile" would indicate to me that you disagree with it.

No one knows what will happen really....................

It indicated to me he reckons as you do, no one knows really so down 12% followed by up 8% is nothing more then guessing.

cnocbui

Blueshoe wrote: »

There is a lovely new housing estate with about 25 houses in it almost completed up the road from me. Solar panels on the roof of each house too. Prime location.
Only found out after I expressed interest that all of the houses are social.
Maybe next time

Any pieces of land around you could buy and have something similar built on?

MrMusician18

GreeBo wrote: »

Ehh yeah, prices change based on market and demand.
Are you expecting to pay the same now as you did in 1985? If not, why not?

You can't use the fact that prices went down to prove they were overvalued...otherwise I can use the fact they went up to prove they were undervalued!

Houses have a current value, that's it.
You've still not answered the most basic question about value btw.

For someone that's pontificating on property, you really haven't a clue. Value and market price are different concepts.

Value is derived from a multitude of factors, such as multi-year averages, long term price and salary trends as well as other wider economic factors. It's is impossible to determine with absolute certainty and can only be expressed as a mere opinion. For example, if I look to sell half a rood of rock in rural Monaghan for €10m, most objective assessors would say I have over valued the property. If someone buys it for that price, it is still overvalued.

Market price on the other hand is a fact, and can be determined with certainty.

Do yourself and everyone else a favour and go off and educate yourself before posting.

Graham

Deub wrote: »

However some “Economics” are able to predict the Irish property market. They should apply to the FED, they are looking for people like them right now.

Pretty much all economists 'predict', it's not a trait unique to Irish economists.

Claw Hammer

Graham wrote: »

Pretty much all economists 'predict', it's not a trait unique to Irish economists.

How many economists do you know with one hand? Reading tea leaves would give as good an indication at the moment.

Graham

Claw Hammer wrote: »

How many economists do you know with one hand? Reading tea leaves would give as good an indication at the moment.

There's a certain irony to predicting the outcome of economic predictions.

GreeBo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

For someone that's pontificating on property, you really haven't a clue. Value and market price are different concepts.

Value is derived from a multitude of factors, such as multi-year averages, long term price and salary trends as well as other wider economic factors. It's is impossible to determine with absolute certainty and can only be expressed as a mere opinion. For example, if I look to sell half a rood of rock in rural Monaghan for €10m, most objective assessors would say I have over valued the property. If someone buys it for that price, it is still overvalued.

Market price on the other hand is a fact, and can be determined with certainty.

Do yourself and everyone else a favour and go off and educate yourself before posting.

"Pontificating", because I don't share your doom and gloom outlook?
You need to learn to argue without being petulant in your posts.


I and others have been asking for days for people to define how they are calling property overvalued. The answers have ranged from "go look at London" to "dont look at London", so forgive me for not blindly following the opinion of some on this thread.

Btw, as I have shown before, long term property price trends are always up, so remind me again how they show property to be overvalued?

theballz

I was bidding on a property pre-pandemic.

My final offer was 20k below asking price, which was rejected.

When the crisis hit I pulled out, the family were willing to accept my offer, and when I turned it down, after numerous back and forths, they offered 60k in the end off asking price.

As a single buyer, I felt it was better I hold off as I am unsure how work is going to play in my profession.

Long story short, anyone who thinks there is not a dip in the market is an estate agent in denial or is a joe soap who needs their heads checked.

fliball123

theballz wrote: »

I was bidding on a property pre-pandemic.

My final offer was 20k below asking price, which was rejected.

When the crisis hit I pulled out, the family were willing to accept my offer, and when I turned it down, after numerous back and forths, they offered 60k in the end off asking price.

As a single buyer, I felt it was better I hold off as I am unsure how work is going to play in my profession.

Long story short, anyone who thinks there is not a dip in the market is an estate agent in denial or is a joe soap who needs their heads checked.

But for every story like this there is one for a person who looked for a discount and where told to f-off. Its irrelevant a one off. No one will know what way the market will be until all restrictions are lifted

Honestly, the only people who will sell now are either under HUGE financial pressure (i.e. about to get their house repossessed after a 9 year battle with the Banks!) or selling as part of a will/probate or are going to die soon and want to settle some affairs. Everyone else selling will pull their stock from the market as opposed to sell it for 20+% less than asking price. Of course, there will be exceptions to this but most of the good stock (qualitatively speaking) in Dublin and surrounding is coming off the market.

And why wouldn't it?

Claw Hammer

Deleted User wrote: »

Honestly, the only people who will sell now are either under HUGE financial pressure (i.e. about to get their house repossessed after a 9 year battle with the Banks!) or selling as part of a will/probate or are going to die soon and want to settle some affairs. Everyone else selling will pull their stock from the market as opposed to sell it for 20+% less than asking price. Of course, there will be exceptions to this but most of the good stock (qualitatively speaking) in Dublin and surrounding is coming off the market.

And why wouldn't it?

Some people may take the opportunity to trade up.

GreeBo

Deleted User wrote: »

Honestly, the only people who will sell now are either under HUGE financial pressure (i.e. about to get their house repossessed after a 9 year battle with the Banks!) or selling as part of a will/probate or are going to die soon and want to settle some affairs. Everyone else selling will pull their stock from the market as opposed to sell it for 20+% less than asking price. Of course, there will be exceptions to this but most of the good stock (qualitatively speaking) in Dublin and surrounding is coming off the market.

And why wouldn't it?

I don't necessarily disagree, but wont that just push prices up?
There are lots of people in better financial position now than before COVID-19.

TheSheriff

theballz wrote: »

I was bidding on a property pre-pandemic.

My final offer was 20k below asking price, which was rejected.

When the crisis hit I pulled out, the family were willing to accept my offer, and when I turned it down, after numerous back and forths, they offered 60k in the end off asking price.

As a single buyer, I felt it was better I hold off as I am unsure how work is going to play in my profession.

Long story short, anyone who thinks there is not a dip in the market is an estate agent in denial or is a joe soap who needs their heads checked.

This is very similar to our current sale agreed.

Very obvious eagerness on the sellers part to offload before the impending drop.

We are more than happy to take it off their hands for over 50k under asking.

Whether it's a good move or not on the sellers part (if it took years to return to these price levels) or our part (if there is a further massive drop in prices) is anyone's guess.

An Ri rua

GreeBo wrote: »

"Pontificating", because I don't share your doom and gloom outlook?
You need to learn to argue without being petulant in your posts.


I and others have been asking for days for people to define how they are calling property overvalued. The answers have ranged from "go look at London" to "dont look at London", so forgive me for not blindly following the opinion of some on this thread.

Btw, as I have shown before, long term property price trends are always up, so remind me again how they show property to be overvalued?

Longterm the price of any asset goes up in a FIAT currency?

ps I wouldn't call 2007-2019 longterm....

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

"Pontificating", because I don't share your doom and gloom outlook?
You need to learn to argue without being petulant in your posts.


I and others have been asking for days for people to define how they are calling property overvalued. The answers have ranged from "go look at London" to "dont look at London", so forgive me for not blindly following the opinion of some on this thread.

Btw, as I have shown before, long term property price trends are always up, so remind me again how they show property to be overvalued?

That graph looks a lot like you're suggesting prices are currently higher than they were in 2007.

Which is almost as ridiculous as saying locations with better public transport should be cheaper than those without.

Which is almost as ridiculous as saying it doesn't make a difference whether you bought a property in 2005 or 2008.

I don't think anyone on here is expecting you to blindly follow their opinion, when you are quite clearly too busy blindly following your own.

Ozark707

theballz wrote: »

I was bidding on a property pre-pandemic.

My final offer was 20k below asking price, which was rejected.

When the crisis hit I pulled out, the family were willing to accept my offer, and when I turned it down, after numerous back and forths, they offered 60k in the end off asking price.

As a single buyer, I felt it was better I hold off as I am unsure how work is going to play in my profession.

Long story short, anyone who thinks there is not a dip in the market is an estate agent in denial or is a joe soap who needs their heads checked.

Without giving too much away are you able to give a range what % the 20k was?

Oliver Fisher

GreeBo wrote: »

"Pontificating", because I don't share your doom and gloom outlook?
You need to learn to argue without being petulant in your posts.


I and others have been asking for days for people to define how they are calling property overvalued. The answers have ranged from "go look at London" to "dont look at London", so forgive me for not blindly following the opinion of some on this thread.

Btw, as I have shown before, long term property price trends are always up, so remind me again how they show property to be overvalued?

economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/08/11/our-cities-house-price-index-suggests-the-property-market-is-slowing (I can't post the full URL, sorry.)

According to The Economist, Dublin prices are 25% overvalued against income.

GreeBo

GreeBo wrote: »

I don't necessarily disagree, but wont that just push prices up?
There are lots of people in better financial position now than before COVID-19.

Of course prices may go up. Good properties are hard to find! Every single property has pros and cons to whoever is looking to purchase.

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Some people may take the opportunity to trade up.

Absolutely but a 20% reduction in their selling price will more than likely mean a 20% reduction in the price they're looking to buy too...and if they're trading up, they're may not be anything to trade up to as good supply is being pulled.

SozBbz

Deleted User wrote: »

Honestly, the only people who will sell now are either under HUGE financial pressure (i.e. about to get their house repossessed after a 9 year battle with the Banks!) or selling as part of a will/probate or are going to die soon and want to settle some affairs. Everyone else selling will pull their stock from the market as opposed to sell it for 20+% less than asking price. Of course, there will be exceptions to this but most of the good stock (qualitatively speaking) in Dublin and surrounding is coming off the market.

And why wouldn't it?

This is very true in my opinion, but to expand on it slightly, I think many posters on this thread talk about the market like its a single, homogenous entity, when in fact its a multitude of many many smaller markets. I don't think you can infer blanket equal price drops across the board. You can't compare a relatively new area with lots of new builds to shift, to a more mature redbrick area, and thats just one comparison.

If I think about my parents road for example (mature redbrick road dating back to the 1920's of roughly 40 houses.) I cannot remember anyone moving away from the road, with the exception of a few cases of divorce. The only time houses become available is when older residents die, which has happened a bit of late due to the demographics of the road where some of the elderly population are the children of the people who bought them as new in the 1920s. There of lots of homes occupied by people who aren't motivated by the movements of the market one way or another.

3 houses sold in 2019 which was high as some times years go by without any movement -2 estate sales and 1 divorce. Both of the houses that came to the market as estate sales were in need of significant modernisation and are both in the process of being gutted and in one case almost rebuilt from the ground except for the facade.


This is a very different proposition to a new build in a commuter county. Certain areas will always be desirable and will hold value. People with assets like that won't let them go cheaply. Supply will contract, and more so in certain areas.

Mic 1972

We have been speculating about a potential decline in property prices since the beginning of Covid in Jan/Feb
It's now almost June and no sings of trend changes are being detected. It may too early but I think it's strange. Viewings have started again, asking prices are higher than last year.
During the last recession the market started to drop almost at the same time as jobs were being lost

Claw Hammer

Deleted User wrote: »

Of course prices may go up. Good properties are hard to find! Every single property has pros and cons to whoever is looking to purchase.



Absolutely but a 20% reduction in their selling price will more than likely mean a 20% reduction in the price they're looking to buy too...and if they're trading up, they're may not be anything to trade up to as good supply is being pulled.

There are always executor sales, family break ups and repossessions and landlords throwing in the towel. Wen someone trades up it releases their own house.

Cupatae

Mic 1972 wrote: »

We have been speculating about a potential decline in property prices since the beginning of Covid in Jan/Feb
It's now almost June and no sings of trend changes are being detected. It may too early but I think it's strange. Viewings have started again, asking prices are higher than last year.
During the last recession the market started to drop almost at the same time as jobs were being lost

I dont see why it would change, the markets basically cornered, people are profiting massively.. they will maintain this situation, keep the demand high and the prices higher.

Its a incredible good housing situation in Ireland atm for certain people to exploit. Ideal conditions for profiting.