Property Market 2020

Shelga

Well I've fired off an email to the estate agent saying I'd be potentially interested, but for 20% less than the asking price. Sure will see what she says anyway!

GreeBo

Shelga wrote: »

Well I've fired off an email to the estate agent saying I'd be potentially interested, but for 20% less than the asking price. Sure will see what she says anyway!

But you'd be mad to buy at X now, if you wait Y months longer it will be X-10%!

(repeat for all values of X and Y)

Shelga

GreeBo wrote: »

But you'd be mad to buy at X now, if you wait Y months longer it will be X-10%!

(repeat for all values of X and Y)

Yes yes, I know, I need to live at home until 2025 to see real reductions! :pac:

I more just want to see if the response is reluctant but willing to entertain me somewhat, or an out and out fcuk off!

Immy

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Some people may take the opportunity to trade up.

This is us.

We’d sell in a shot if there was anything for us to buy.

Snow Garden

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Agree with all of that, but still no sings of property market decline.
I've been monitoring the 1bed market fora while, I haven't seen any change whatsoever. I also cancelled one viewing last week because they had already 3 people going and there were already offers for higher than asking price. I'm still expecting things to change in the future but at the moment the market seems mostly unaffected

It's very very early. The economy has just hit a wall. Everyone is still in shock. The market is currently dysfunctional. You will have no idea how bad things will get until Q1 2021.

Summer2020

Snow Garden wrote: »

It's very very early. The economy has just hit a wall. Everyone is still in shock. The market is currently dysfunctional. You will have no idea how bad things will get until Q1 2021.

I knew who posted this without even looking at the username. You’re like a broken record at this stage.

Padre_Pio

Summer2020 wrote: »

I knew who posted this without even looking at the username. You’re like a broken record at this stage.

He's right though.
People are expecting a fire sale of property that's not happening. Sellers aren't going to freak and offload at any cost. Even if they did, banks are too hesitant to extend credit given a quarter of the workforce is on social welfare.

For every story of a buyer getting a % off, there's another who was told to jump.
Maybe property will crash by 20% this year, but there's still 6 months left in the year.

Buyers on this thread seem to fall into two categories.
Those late in the purchase who want to get it over with before the bank pulls their mortgage.
Those early in the process who are withdrawing offers and happy to wait for the market to show it's hand.

ladystardust

Hi all, looking to buy a house in cash as soon as possible. I have spent weeks reading these posts and it seems very divisive. My question is, considering the amount of mortgages being lost at drawdown etc, does the cash aspect give me further leeway in terms of asking price and negotiating? I have been very cheeky and throwing offers 10% under all over the shop the last few days.

ladystardust

ladystardust wrote: »

Hi all, looking to buy a house in cash as soon as possible. I have spent weeks reading these posts and it seems very divisive. My question is, considering the amount of mortgages being lost at drawdown etc, does the cash aspect give me further leeway in terms of asking price and negotiating? I have been very cheeky and throwing offers 10% under all over the shop the last few days.

Really interesting. What's your budget and how have they been received?

Ozark707

ladystardust wrote: »

Hi all, looking to buy a house in cash as soon as possible. I have spent weeks reading these posts and it seems very divisive. My question is, considering the amount of mortgages being lost at drawdown etc, does the cash aspect give me further leeway in terms of asking price and negotiating? I have been very cheeky and throwing offers 10% under all over the shop the last few days.

What has been the reaction to these offers?

ladystardust

Ozark707 wrote: »

What has been the reaction to these offers?

Generally have been told to take a hike so far. But I doubted anyone would be happy to accept it off the bat considering how complex the whole situation is. I don't know, maybe cash counts for nothing at the moment. Bit did it really ever? I was advised that being a cash buyer puts we in a good position but realistically has it ever translated to lower sale agreed prices? Or is it just something people say when they havent a clue? Have been royally messed over this year trying to buy (as I know many many people have been) and now valuations and asking prices seem totally random to me and almost completely arbitrary.

Ozark707

ladystardust wrote: »

Generally have been told to take a hike so far. But I doubted anyone would be happy to accept it off the bat considering how complex the whole situation is. I don't know, maybe cash counts for nothing at the moment. Bit did it really ever? I was advised that being a cash buyer puts we in a good position but realistically has it ever translated to lower sale agreed prices?

As a cash buyer you will definitely not be at a disadvantage and I suspect right now you would be given the Royal treatment. What EA wants to go through the chances of having a sale fall through due to bank valuation falling short etc. Some of the anecdotes here recently seem to indicate that you might be receiving a call back from an EA...good luck!

ladystardust

Ozark707 wrote: »

As a cash buyer you will definitely not be at a disadvantage and I suspect right now you would be given the Royal treatment. What EA wants to go through the chances of having a sale fall through due to bank valuation falling short etc. Some of the anecdotes here recently seem to indicate that you might be receiving a call back from an EA...good luck!

That's what I thought! Maybe I just have to hold out. Thanks!

Ozark707

ladystardust wrote: »

That's what I thought! Maybe I just have to hold out. Thanks!

Well it will be interesting to see if any of these low ball offers generate a follow up from an EA for you. Are these new builds?

James 007

ladystardust wrote: »

Hi all, looking to buy a house in cash as soon as possible. I have spent weeks reading these posts and it seems very divisive. My question is, considering the amount of mortgages being lost at drawdown etc, does the cash aspect give me further leeway in terms of asking price and negotiating? I have been very cheeky and throwing offers 10% under all over the shop the last few days.

Yes but you need to play their game, if an EA indicates to give you 10% reduction, then your next step is to get a further reduction either by saying you will go off & think about it , maybe flog them off to say I need to consult my partner etc & come back with another slight reduction maybe 5%, or walk the house with a builder or a so called 'builder' & explain to the EA that there are certain renovation works required coming in a X amount & you need to go off & consult your partner as this changes everything etc.

ladystardust

Ozark707 wrote: »

Well it will be interesting to see if any of these low ball offers generate a follow up from an EA for you. Are these new builds?

Nope, older houses for the most part. Think I have genuine just been naive until now and have been apologetic for bidding low and fast. Also maybe need to adjust my "isn't everyone just being up front and open" glasses. I'm not a natural poker player by any means.

em_cat

Ozark707 wrote: »

As a cash buyer you will definitely not be at a disadvantage and I suspect right now you would be given the Royal treatment. What EA wants to go through the chances of having a sale fall through due to bank valuation falling short etc. Some of the anecdotes here recently seem to indicate that you might be receiving a call back from an EA...good luck!

From my experience as a cash buyer, (last 6 mos) we ended up in several bidding wars, either against other cash buyers or against both cash + mortgage, this really didn’t put us in a better position against other bidders. We also weren’t looking at new build either so that was another factor. I knew that cash buying wouldn’t necessarily make us more attractive buyers though because people sell for a variety of reasons and in the end I got super frustrated, mostly because the lack of suitable properties & dealing with EAs that have strict no match bidding policies.

In the end we found an infill site that suits us, had a huge amount of interest, mostly by Architects & builders/developers. We had to get a bit aggressive with our bidding but in the end my aim to trigger the best & final won out. It doesn’t hurt to be cash buyers, but be aware there are quite a few more out there than you’d think and EAs always deal with people who say they are cash.

GreeBo

James 007 wrote: »

Yes but you need to play their game, if an EA indicates to give you 10% reduction, then your next step is to get a further reduction either by saying you will go off & think about it , maybe flog them off to say I need to consult my partner etc & come back with another slight reduction maybe 5%, or walk the house with a builder or a so called 'builder' & explain to the EA that there are certain renovation works required coming in a X amount & you need to go off & consult your partner as this changes everything etc.

Or just make an offer at whatever you are willing to pay.

It would be a strange situation if a poster on boards had new ideas that an EA hadnt seen a million times before.
"oh its very dark!" as he shields his eyes from the sun

Snow Garden

GreeBo wrote: »

Or just make an offer at whatever you are willing to pay.

It would be a strange situation if a poster on boards had new ideas that an EA hadnt seen a million times before.
"oh its very dark!" as he shields his eyes from the sun

That is terrible advice all things considered. Have you bought recently or something?

Padre_Pio

Snow Garden wrote: »

That is terrible advice all things considered. Have you bought recently or something?

I don't think so.

An EA probably has years if not decades selling houses.
Joe Soap coming in with a "builder friend" tapping walls and tutting isn't going to phase him.
Anyone who's sold a few cars can tell tyre kickers a mile off.

Property is a weird thing in that it's worth what people are willing to pay for it.
Know how much your willing to pay and you won't be ripped off.

Donald Trump

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I don't think so.

An EA probably has years if not decades selling houses.
Joe Soap coming in with a "builder friend" tapping walls and tutting isn't going to phase him.
Anyone who's sold a few cars can tell tyre kickers a mile off.

Property is a weird thing in that it's worth what people are willing to pay for it.
Know how much your willing to pay and you won't be ripped off.

Also know what the market would be willing to pay.



The house might be worth 300k to you because your parents live within walking distance and it would be handy for childminding etc. but you know that similar houses in the area go for 250k.

markodaly

I do not see how these measures will not affect the price of property.

PommieBast

markodaly wrote: »

I do not see how these measures will not affect the price of property.

Where did you get this pre-print image from?

GreeBo

markodaly wrote: »

I do not see how these measures will not affect the price of property.

Seems to just impact people currently in receipt, so presumably once they go back to being paid by their employer this problem is no more.

GreeBo

PommieBast wrote: »

Where did you get this pre-print image from?

https://www.broadsheet.ie/

hometruths

Housing in Ireland - from crisis to crisis is a 2015, report from the National Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis, which is more interesting than it sounds.

Given the amount of times on the thread we are told "this time is different, there was a massive oversupply in 2009" it won't surprise anybody that the report confirms this was a problem at the time:

Significantly exacerbating the situation was it soon became clear that not only were prices over-inflated, but that there was a massive oversupply of housing stock and over-zoning of land....
....The extent of the oversupply was clarified by the 2011 census, which reported that 230,056 units were vacant (excluding holiday homes), 168,427 houses and 61,629 apartments out of a total housing stock of 1,994,845 (CSO 2012). Allowing that one would always expect some units to be vacant in any housing market (the Department of Environment, Community and Local Government (DECLG) suggest 6%) then oversupply was approximately 110,000 units.

So, according to this, if the oversupply in 2011 was 110,000, the optimum supply would have been 1,884,845 units for our then population of 4,588,252 - a figure of 411 units per 1000 people.

Since then housing stock has risen to 2,053,500 (gov data to 31/12/2018 + estimates of new builds in 2019) and population has risen to 4,902,000.

So the current estimate is 419 units per 1000 people.

Does anybody know what is different now that 419 units per 1000 people represents a chronic undersupply, but 9 years ago 411 units per 1000 was the optimum?

Padre_Pio

GreeBo wrote: »

Seems to just impact people currently in receipt, so presumably once they go back to being paid by their employer this problem is no more.

If they go back to their employer.

GreeBo

Padre_Pio wrote: »

If they go back to their employer.

Anyone in receipt of wage subsidy never left their employer...that was kinda the point of it.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Housing in Ireland - from crisis to crisis is a 2015, report from the National Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis, which is more interesting than it sounds.

Given the amount of times on the thread we are told "this time is different, there was a massive oversupply in 2009" it won't surprise anybody that the report confirms this was a problem at the time:



So, according to this, if the oversupply in 2011 was 110,000, the optimum supply would have been 1,884,845 units for our then population of 4,588,252 - a figure of 411 units per 1000 people.

Since then housing stock has risen to 2,053,500 (gov data to 31/12/2018 + estimates of new builds in 2019) and population has risen to 4,902,000.

So the current estimate is 419 units per 1000 people.

Does anybody know what is different now that 419 units per 1000 people represents a chronic undersupply, but 9 years ago 411 units per 1000 was the optimum?

does the report lay out where the over supply is? For example, if there are 10k empty units in longford does that really constitute oversupply? IF there is such an oversupply why aren't people buying the empty units?

Cuddlesworth

GreeBo wrote: »

Anyone in receipt of wage subsidy never left their employer...that was kinda the point of it.

And there is a decent chance the employer might not open again or might have to cut staff due to reduced demand.