Property Market 2020

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

The ESRI report discussed a few days ago has now been published and IT are leading with a clickbait headline

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/house-prices-to-fall-by-12-over-next-18-months-esri-says-1.4258075?mode=amp

12% wouldn't seem too bad for the next 18 months but there is a possibility that this is just when prices start to climb down as data in 18 months will reflect activity in 12-18 months, when the market will only be restarting properly. Until then, people are more concerned about their job still existing, kids going to school and whether they can get a holiday at some point this year.

12% sounds pretty steep over 18 months - would it have taken 3 years to increase by 12%? Would be interesting to understand the metrics used to arrive at this number and what the margin +/- would be.

12% does sound ok when compared to the doom merchants on boards. I'm just not sure who has more credibility - the ESRI or some lad on the internet.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

all sounds very plausible. However, socialism isn't the solution to the problems caused by government policy. It would make them worse. Ideological socialist boll*xology will not fix polotics / policy / systemic failures in any part of our society.....

I'm not an advocate of socialism or capitalism, however both have very positive aspects and both have aspects that can be exploited

The last recession resulted in socialism for the wealthy. The sins of the few and their Debts were passed onto children and those not even born yet

Regulation of building looks like a job for the boys set up, Now when and where have we seen that in the past? Absolutely disgraceful that an inneffective system developed here for regulation costs 40,000 per unit while a better independent effective system is in place up the road costing 730

Controlling and suppressing supply of a commodity that everyone needs is an act of war in most countries. For a government to partake in such a practice to the detriment of the majority of its people is unforgivable in a democracy

Is it too much to ask a Government to act in the best interests of its country

When will this country have a common sense party or a mixture of political parties that results in common sense policies

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm not an advocate of socialism or capitalism, however both have very positive aspects and both have aspects that can be exploited

The last recession resulted in socialism for the wealthy. The sins of the few and their Debts were passed onto children and those not even born yet

Regulation of building looks like a job for the boys set up, Now when and where have we seen that in the past? Absolutely disgraceful that an inneffective system developed here for regulation costs 40,000 per unit while a better independent effective system is in place up the road costing 730

Controlling and suppressing supply of a commodity that everyone needs is an act of war in most countries. For a government to partake in such a practice to the detriment of the majority of its people is unforgivable in a democracy

Is it too much to ask a Government to act in the best interests of its country

When will this country have a common sense party or a mixture of political parties that results in common sense policies

There are too many self interest groups in the country. Like you say we have communism for the wealthy where only debts are spread to everyone and champagne socialists who think anyone who is working hard and earning money should have a target on their back as how dare they try to make a decent wage lets tax the hell out of them. Then you have the Public sector who wield way too much sway over things. Then add in the cohort who want everything handed to them. There is no one out there who will tackle any of it. What should happen going forward is options should be put up as in who ever is in power they should say we need to earn say 50 billion this year and then get a say on how we get to that figure. same goes with the spending. There are decisions made for sectors of society that is punishing the middle income earners and it needs to stop.

Assetbacked

Hubertj wrote: »

12% sounds pretty steep over 18 months - would it have taken 3 years to increase by 12%? Would be interesting to understand the metrics used to arrive at this number and what the margin +/- would be.

12% does sound ok when compared to the doom merchants on boards. I'm just not sure who has more credibility - the ESRI or some lad on the internet.

Hard to know, I'm not a fan of the ESRI, but of fuddy duddy 1970s civil service vibe off them.

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

12% does sound ok when compared to the doom merchants on boards. I'm just not sure who has more credibility - the ESRI or some lad on the internet.

Remember the ESRI didn't predict the housing collapse the last time either.

Villa05

Esri
The recovery of housing demand is dependent on how long covid 19 welfare payments remain in place and at what point authorities decide to pull them

Hubertj

Ozark707 wrote: »

Remember the ESRI didn't predict the housing collapse the last time either.

I didn’t know that. I only started taking an “interest” in property the last few months. Does 12% in 18 months not indicate a collapse though? Sounds pretty steep to me no matter what you are purchasing.

SozBbz

To be fair, its on the record from subsequent enquiries that the ESRI didnt predict the banking collapse (neither did anyone else really though - a lot of the reasons we had such a bad time is that the bankers themselves were firstly under regulated and secondly withholding key information from the Central Bank in order to conceal certain activity that was at best amoral and often illegal.)

They did call out that we had a housing bubble and that lending was getting out of control from 2001 onwards. Sucessive governments (and opposition parties) ignored it.

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

I didn’t know that. I only started taking an “interest” in property the last few months. Does 12% in 18 months not indicate a collapse though? Sounds pretty steep to me no matter what you are purchasing.

I agree 12% is not a collapse. I think they were major proponents of the 'soft landing' theory the last time out. I just find it hard that a body with no many PhD's etc failed to spot the elephant in the corner at that time (I don't want to divert the thread into a rehash of the 2007 implosion ).

Snow Garden

Ozark707 wrote: »

Remember the ESRI didn't predict the housing collapse the last time either.

Correct. Morgan Kelly predicted it and Bertie Ahern wondered why people on the sidelines "cribbing and moaning . . . don't commit suicide".

I guess I am a doom merchant and I am fine with that. I think a lot of people have their head in the sand in relation to the economic fallout of this crisis.
I am not buying or selling but I do have an opinion...and I would absolutely hate for any first time buyers to face into years of negative equity when buying a house now. It's a truly awful scenario to be in. It caused so much pain in the late 2000s. Anyway, I wont post in this thread anymore. Enjoy the soft landing.

Shelga

Assetbacked wrote: »

The ESRI report discussed a few days ago has now been published and IT are leading with a clickbait headline

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/house-prices-to-fall-by-12-over-next-18-months-esri-says-1.4258075?mode=amp

12% wouldn't seem too bad for the next 18 months but there is a possibility that this is just when prices start to climb down as data in 18 months will reflect activity in 12-18 months, when the market will only be restarting properly. Until then, people are more concerned about their job still existing, kids going to school and whether they can get a holiday at some point this year.

12% drop over 18 months doesn't sound like much to me. I'm not living at home another 18 months just to save 12%. I'm just gonna keep offering 20% less than the asking price to EAs until one of them bites :pac:

landofthetree

cnocbui wrote: »

In what way are are house prices in Dublin over-valued? Compared to what? Dublin is a capital city, not some small provincial hamlet. How many people living in London, or Paris, working at what you do, can afford to buy a house more easily than you can?

landofthetree wrote: »

Those cities have a much better public transport system than Dublin.

cnocbui wrote: »

So?

There are 346 trains from Reading to London every day.

Same for loads of other places that are within an hour of London.

Whereas with Dublin you don't have that sort of option.

landofthetree

Browney7 wrote: »

It's all a game at the minute. The builders know they will struggle to get the price pre Covid so they either stop building or drop prices and reduce their margin.

There is of course another option where they lobby like crazy and keep prices the same or a small reduction but negotiate a bigger reduction in development levies or VAT or building standards in order to keep their margins intact.

Of course if they stop building the government could always make use of the extra capacity from idle tradesmen and builders and contractors and embark on an ambitious affordable/social housing scheme on state land but availability of money to finance and willingness and ability to add to the national debt will come into play. The next year will be interesting to see what plays out

A lot of developers are funded by vulture funds and not the banks.

The loans they are paying back have pretty high interest rates.

These developers need cash flow and many will have to reduce prices.

Cyrus

What am i missing here:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-nutley-road-donnybrook-dublin-4/4413668

v

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/97-anglesea-road-ballsbridge-dublin-4-d04-v3a3/4277483

Markitron

Cyrus wrote: »

What am i missing here:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-nutley-road-donnybrook-dublin-4/4413668

v

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/97-anglesea-road-ballsbridge-dublin-4-d04-v3a3/4277483

The only thing I can think of is that the top one is detached and closer to the sea, other than that, it makes no sense to me. I would choose the bottom one all day long.

Cyrus

Markitron wrote: »

The only thing I can think of is that the top one is detached and closer to the sea, other than that, it makes no sense to me. I would choose the bottom one all day long.

i was looking at the ballsbridge one earlier thinking it wasnt terrible value for what it is

the donnybrook house is dreamer territory though,

Markitron

Cyrus wrote: »

i was looking at the ballsbridge one earlier thinking it wasnt terrible value for what it is

Can't really comment on the value of it for the area, but that place needs a substantial amount of work. No one that could afford it would want to live in it in the state it is in.

lawrencesummers

Cyrus wrote: »

What am i missing here:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-nutley-road-donnybrook-dublin-4/4413668

v

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/97-anglesea-road-ballsbridge-dublin-4-d04-v3a3/4277483

Interesting comparison alright, Nutley road is listed as 5 bed and the other only 3 bed. Both in need of modernising. Not a huge difference in SQ FT and you would thing the end tce is a more desired location.

Be interesting to see the closing prices down the road.

Amirani

landofthetree wrote: »

There are 346 trains from Reading to London every day.

Same for loads of other places that are within an hour of London.

Whereas with Dublin you don't have that sort of option.

Why would that make Dublin property over-valued?

Nutley road would be a very desirable area.
Also, the other one, which is only a few mins walk away, has a house built in the garden.

SozBbz

Cyrus wrote: »

What am i missing here:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-nutley-road-donnybrook-dublin-4/4413668

v

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/97-anglesea-road-ballsbridge-dublin-4-d04-v3a3/4277483

Weird one alright, could be that the bottom one is actually serious about selling?

While neither property is that recently decorated, but I'd say that the bottom one is in better order - toning down some of the paintwork and removing some of the chintzy furniture etc would make a quick improvement. Theres little worth saving from the top one, its needs to be fully redecorated including flooring.

Nominally being detached is an advantage, but in my opinion theres very little curb appeal in the Nutly property. I'd be surprised if that seller gets anything like what they want irrespective of covid.

Cyrus

Markitron wrote: »

Can't really comment on the value of it for the area, but that place needs a substantial amount of work. No one that could afford it would want to live in it in the state it is in.

the donnybrook house you mean ? the ballsbridge house would need updating but its not too bad.

Cyrus

bubblypop wrote: »

Nutley road would be a very desirable area.
Also, the other one, which is only a few mins walk away, has a house built in the garden.

so is anglesea road though,

i do take the point re the building in the garden, which maybe explains some of the pricing.

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

What am i missing here:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-nutley-road-donnybrook-dublin-4/4413668

v

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/97-anglesea-road-ballsbridge-dublin-4-d04-v3a3/4277483

I was having a look at that second link and thought the layout of the hallway looked familiar and had a quick look at some old family photos I have scanned and sure enough:



Very similar.

Hubertj

some of the Angelsea road houses were prone to flooding when the dodder would burst. I think some can no longer get insurance. While a lot of work has been done on the Dodder perhaps that would impact it? Also, Angelsea road is a carpark at peak times so maybe a factor?

Nutley rd is a detached 5 bed house, with a driveway.
Angelsey rd is a end of terrace 3 bed, no parking with a house built in the garden.

Now, personally I like the angelsey rd house better, but for a family, I can see the other is probably better. They are really only a few mins walk from each other.

Roberto_gas

https://amp.independent.ie/irish-news/house-prices-due-to-fall-sharply-in-wake-of-pandemic-rices-39220784.html

We would be lucky to get away with 12% drop by next year ! Any views on the above

Cyrus

bubblypop wrote: »

Nutley rd is a detached 5 bed house, with a driveway.
Angelsey rd is a end of terrace 3 bed, no parking with a house built in the garden.

Now, personally I like the angelsey rd house better, but for a family, I can see the other is probably better. They are really only a few mins walk from each other.

you could make a 5 bed house of the anglesea house im sure (or a decent 4 bed which im sure the nutley house is really, the 5th bedroom will be a closet)

also has offstreet parking

to me their is no comparison and i have kids.

The Belly

Roberto_gas wrote: »

https://amp.independent.ie/irish-news/house-prices-due-to-fall-sharply-in-wake-of-pandemic-rices-39220784.html

We would be lucky to get away with 12% drop by next year ! Any views on the above

Prices will fall slightly in the near future as the lead time for the full effect of the damage to the economy will take months to fully come through.

But if current temporary unemployment becomes long term unemployment triple the ESRI's estimate on the fall in property prices

When you see banks tighten lending criteria thats the canary in the coal mine.

cnocbui

The US is showing some signs that the pandemic isn't affecting buying in the way many had feared:

If mortgage demand is an indicator, buyers are coming back to the housing market far faster than anticipated, despite coronavirus shutdowns and job losses.

Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 6% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Purchase volume was just 1.5% lower than a year ago, a rather stunning recovery from just six weeks ago, when purchase volume was down 35% annually.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/weekly-mortgage-applications-point-to-remarkable-bounce-in-homebuying.html