Property Market 2020

Wompa1

Glory83 wrote: »

We are expecting prices to fall up to 50% probably even 30%. If so, don't you think homeowners will hold off selling their properties until the market adjusts itself. Consequently, the supply will drop way beyond the demand. In this scenario, buyers will compete on a fewer properties that will drive their prices up again.
I am talking about properties in good conditions and locations not the rubbish ones.

How many people are still in houses they bought in 2006 or 2007 and paid 400k+ and due to the way things went they may have barely gotten past paying off the interest?

If those people held onto the property up until now, they are very f'kin greedy and stupid.

How many are completely upside down on their mortgage but they are chasing a price that will not just clear off what they owe but also make them money, despite them being completely f*cked on the mortgage?

In almost any other country, they'd lose the house entirely.

Sheeps

Graham wrote: »

I don't think we have homes for first time buyers. We haven't for a long time.

We have homes that are reachable to a small subset of FTBers.

I think that's absolutely true. To refine my statement, I think the entry level to the market at the moment will continue to rise slowly or remain the same and the top and middle of the market will fall through it's arse.

GreeBo

I prices drop by 50% I'll personally be buying a couple of BTLs and I'm sure I wont be the only one.
No one will be moving house and most likely mortgage restrictions will be even tighter, so fewer people will be able to get a mortgage.

I also wonder who will be selling in a 50% down market?
Who will be building in this market also? How do you make any money as a developer if prices are down 50%

So if no one is building and no one is selling, how exactly are prices down 50%?
Supply would be zero.
Which will drive prices up.

GreeBo

Wompa1 wrote: »

How many people are still in houses they bought in 2006 or 2007 and paid 400k+ and due to the way things went they may have barely gotten past paying off the interest?

I'd expect most of them were and are repaying at the same rate they agreed to when buying the house. Sure, some people went interest only for a while, but to suggest that it was a majority and that they are only just back to repaying capital is wrong.

Wompa1 wrote: »

If those people held onto the property up until now, they are very f'kin greedy and stupid.

Huh? Greedy? Stupid? Because they kept the house the bought and kept paying a mortgage?

Wompa1 wrote: »

How many are completely upside down on their mortgage but they are chasing a price that will not just clear off what they owe but also make them money, despite them being completely f*cked on the mortgage?

I dont know what that paragraph means.

Wompa1 wrote: »

In almost any other country, they'd lose the house entirely.

If they stopped paying and didnt talk to their bank.
A bank doesnt want houses, it wants people paying a mortgage, even if that means striking a deal with them around different terms.

Glory83

Wompa1 wrote: »

How many people are still in houses they bought in 2006 or 2007 and paid 400k+ and due to the way things went they may have barely gotten past paying off the interest?

Well, whoever bought at that time and managed to keep their repayments would not need to sell if the market is down or if they are not forced to sell due to external reason be it a death, emigration, divorce maybe. Again those 300 or 400K + properties will be few and far between during this period.

Wompa1 wrote: »

If those people held onto the property up until now, they are very f'kin greedy and stupid.

If they don't need to sell, why should they?

Wompa1 wrote: »

How many are completely upside down on their mortgage but they are chasing a price that will not just clear off what they owe but also make them money, despite them being completely f*cked on the mortgage?

In almost any other country, they'd lose the house entirely.

Those who could not meet their repayments either already sold in negative equity or the bank repossessed their properties. Alternatively, they are still living in their properties anyway.

Glory83

GreeBo wrote: »

I prices drop by 50% I'll personally be buying a couple of BTLs and I'm sure I wont be the only one.
No one will be moving house and most likely mortgage restrictions will be even tighter, so fewer people will be able to get a mortgage.

I also wonder who will be selling in a 50% down market?
Who will be building in this market also? How do you make any money as a developer if prices are down 50%

So if no one is building and no one is selling, how exactly are prices down 50%?
Supply would be zero.
Which will drive prices up.

It would be many cash buyers properties that need full renovations. And agreed with you the few good properties left will drive the price up anyway. Therefore, if I manage to find a good house in the area of my interest and I can buy it, I will not wait as it will be my forever home. Not in rush though anyway

JimmyVik

Wompa1 wrote: »

How many people are still in houses they bought in 2006 or 2007 and paid 400k+ and due to the way things went they may have barely gotten past paying off the interest?.

Most of my friends are in that position.
Im actually jealous of them. They are now half way through their mortgages and paying a hell of a lot less per month than I would be paying if i bought today.

There were a few hairy years for them but in the long run they are so much better off. I find myself now wishing I had bought a house in 2006 or 2007 tbh.

TheSheriff

I think the next few months, likely till the end of the year , buyers are in a very good position to negotiate hard on properties.

If people are looking to buy, I'd be offering 20% under asking and have a figure in mind you'd be will to close at.

Waiting around till the famed 50% drops happen may work, but you might also find there is nothing or very little to buy.

combat14

Looks like this covid 19 is going to be around for quite a while .. very hard to shake it off .. South Korea starting to close hundreds of schools again only days after opening up as virus reappears in densely populated areas ....

No rush buying a house at the moment.. let prices drop first...

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52844350

JimmyVik

TheSheriff wrote: »

I think the next few months, likely till the end of the year , buyers are in a very good position to negotiate hard on properties.

If people are looking to buy, I'd be offering 20% under asking and have a figure in mind you'd be will to close at.

Waiting around till the famed 50% drops happen may work, but you might also find there is nothing or very little to buy.

I was talking to someone just yesterday who was sale agreed on a trade up house and also sale agreed on his own house.


His buyer asked for €30k off last month. He went to the person he is buying from and asked same. That person just decided to pull the house from the market instead of negotiate. Whole chain has collapsed now.
The person I was talking to has decided to just take the house off the market and stay in it for a few years to see how it pans out.


Im sure thats a common theme the last few weeks.

combat14

https://amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/greens-transport-budgets-dominate-talks-with-fine-gael-and-fianna-fail-1002298.html

The greens looking for tax rises all over the place .. any chance of another election ��

TheSheriff

JimmyVik wrote: »

I was talking to someone just yesterday who was sale agreed on a trade up house and also sale agreed on his own house.


His buyer asked for €30k off last month. He went to the person he is buying from and asked same. That person just decided to pull the house from the market instead of negotiate. Whole chain has collapsed now.
The person I was talking to has decided to just take the house off the market and stay in it for a few years to see how it pans out.


Im sure thats a common theme the last few weeks.

Yeah this is the flip side; we did view several properties in early Jan we liked but thought were overpriced. They have sinces disappeared from the market, no indication they were sold.

GreeBo

JimmyVik wrote: »

I was talking to someone just yesterday who was sale agreed on a trade up house and also sale agreed on his own house.


His buyer asked for €30k off last month. He went to the person he is buying from and asked same. That person just decided to pull the house from the market instead of negotiate. Whole chain has collapsed now.
The person I was talking to has decided to just take the house off the market and stay in it for a few years to see how it pans out.


Im sure thats a common theme the last few weeks.

Hard to say though, 30K off a 300,000 house is very different than 30K off a 1,300,000 house.

AlmightyCushion

combat14 wrote: »

https://amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/greens-transport-budgets-dominate-talks-with-fine-gael-and-fianna-fail-1002298.html

The greens looking for tax rises all over the place .. any chance of another election ��

That article only mentions an air travel tax which would be a new tax (well bringing back an old one to be exact). What are the rest of the taxes increases?

Air travel tax is a great idea, it's not really a punitive one. It's almost a universal one too, you get a few quid off scobes heading away on their little excursions etc. Fantastic.

combat14

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

That article only mentions an air travel tax which would be a new tax (well bringing back an old one to be exact). What are the rest of the taxes increases?

property taxes, carbon taxes, wealth taxes, windfall taxes and probably a few more

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/greens-push-overhaul-of-property-tax-higher-carbon-tax-in-government-talks-1.4263350%3fmode=amp

combat14

Augeo wrote: »

Air travel tax is a great idea, it's not really a punitive one. It's almost a universal one too, you get a few quid off scobes heading away on their little excursions etc. Fantastic.

so families going away on their once a year family holiday, workers and business people who all use planes are now suddenly "scobes heading away on their little excursions"
I hope the green party dont have that attitude or will be very hard to form a stable government with them!

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Can someone explain to me why the whole country will go bankrupt if prices drop 50%?

People say this as if we will all be at soup kitchens if the property market tanks 50% again, but I don't really understand what the doomsday scenario is.

Anybody who does understand how it would damage Average Joe care to spell it out for me?

I think its how the economy would be if a 50% drop happened as it will only happened if the economy is completely decimated, ergo we are all in trouble

Villa05

combat14 wrote:

property taxes, carbon taxes, wealth taxes, windfall taxes and probably a few more

Do you think given our debt situation that there will be no new/higher taxes, at least they do have good ideas about how it is spent. This has been the real problem for years.

c.p.w.g.w

Well in Limerick, a few houses have been removed from daft/my home. I'd imagine as they don't want to be dealing with people low balling (in fairness the houses were up for at least 10-15% more than they are probably worth)

cnocbui

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Well in Limerick, a few houses have been removed from daft/my home. I'd imagine as they don't want to be dealing with people low balling (in fairness the houses were up for at least 10-15% more than they are probably worth)

I hope to be putting my house on the market within the next year or so. If selling on Adverts is any indication, I'll get an endless stream of knuckle dragging natives wanting me to pay them to take it off my hands, or to swap it for their dead cat, and then a nice Polski or other recent immigrant will go, wow, bargain, and take it off my hands for near what I'll be asking, with a huge smile.

SozBbz

cnocbui wrote: »

I hope to be putting my house on the market within the next year or so. If selling on Adverts is any indication, I'll get an endless stream of knuckle dragging natives wanting me to pay them to take it off my hands, or to swap it for their dead cat, and then a nice Polski or other recent immigrant will go, wow, bargain, and take it off my hands for near what I'll be asking, with a huge smile.

Why would you think Adverts (which granted is full of melters) would be indicitave of selling a house?

Were you planning on going without an agent?

cnocbui

SozBbz wrote: »

Why would you think Adverts (which granted is full of melters) would be indicitave of selling a house?

Were you planning on going without an agent?

Because my last experience selling a house in this country was 'interesting'. I have been wondering about selling it myself but suspect I'll chicken out. I'll have a good think on it, for sure.

James 007

cnocbui wrote: »

Because my last experience selling a house in this country was 'interesting'. I have been wondering about selling it myself but suspect I'll chicken out. I'll have a good think on it, for sure.

Why don't you put it up here, there are a lot of buyers online on Boards.ie:p

ElBastardo1

JimmyVik wrote: »

Most of my friends are in that position.
Im actually jealous of them. They are now half way through their mortgages and paying a hell of a lot less per month than I would be paying if i bought today.

There were a few hairy years for them but in the long run they are so much better off. I find myself now wishing I had bought a house in 2006 or 2007 tbh.

I bought a 1 bed Apartment in 2006, While my repayments were low as it was a tracker I had ended up having 2 kids which meant I had to move out and rent elsewhere and become an accidental LL. If you bought a place in a location you could live for the rest of your life in 2006, you were in a good position. The people who bought in 2012 were in a far better position, I know people who got houses for 150k in decent locations in Dublin and eventually these doubled in Value.

Over the years I heard people berate landlords, how they didn't have empathy with Tenants. I wasn't cut out to be a LL. The worry and stress hoping Tenants paid their rent and didn't wreck your place was tough. I was just covering my rent in the place I was living and Mortgage repayments and Tax on the place I was renting. If the rent didn't come in I was in the red. My advice would be, only buy a place you can live in for the next 10 years of your life.

cnocbui

James 007 wrote: »

Why don't you put it up here, there are a lot of buyers online on Boards.ie:p

Even the politest of my replies to the likes of schmittel, would see me perma-banned.

Glory83

fliball123 wrote: »

I think its how the economy would be if a 50% drop happened as it will only happened if the economy is completely decimated, ergo we are all in trouble

That is the reason for any drop in pricing. It is a demand and supply market depending on the purchasing power of the buyers and the amount banks can lend. As long buyers have jobs and savings that afford them to buy 300K+ properties, sellers will not reduce their asking prices or expectations. It is during the time when buyers can not afford that, then sellers, if they are forced, they will sell for a considerable drop, or simply wait for the markt to pick up again. Sellers can always let their properties in the meantime. This is what it is happening now, I believe.

Assetbacked

My parents have their house on the market (South Dublin), at the €1m+ price range the past few months. Not using an agent but instead their own experience and an auctioneer. There have been positive enquiries from the UK but without travel being permitted it can't be tested how serious they are. For them, they are viewing everything as being frozen and are happy to wait out a year or two years if needs be, there is no point in panicking now or in the next few months as far as they're concerned.

cnocbui

Some people better not have a look at this: https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/121665199/couple-buys-rundown-kingsland-villa-for-114m-eight-miss-out

Demand for rundown do-up villas in Auckland seems as great as ever post-lockdown.

Clarke and Kelsey Baker have just spent $1.14 million on this Kingsland fixer-upper that's just three doors along from their existing home in the same street.

And they were the "lucky ones". Tim Hawes of Ray White Kingsland says he had nine offers on the property

That's €625,414

19233974

I have been trying to contact EA`s over the last few weeks. I assumed they would be working from home, but the likes of DNG are not even answering phones or replying to emails. Seems odd that they appear to have shut up shop temporarily