Property Market 2020

TheSheriff

EAs holding webinars next week for FTBers; anyone notice this? Got invites from both Sherry and Frankknight.

TheSheriff

cnocbui wrote: »

Some people better not have a look at this: https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/121665199/couple-buys-rundown-kingsland-villa-for-114m-eight-miss-out

That's €625,414

Saw some similar reports out of China on the property market being largely unaffected by CV-19. Will try to find the link later on.

ebayissues

TheSheriff wrote: »

Saw some similar reports out of China on the property market being largely unaffected by CV-19. Will try to find the link later on.

Chinese market is an interesting one. I have friends from China working in Tech companies and they are aying they've no hopes of buying in Bejing and also the top 5 cities in China. Majority of thse guys have purchased apartments - cash buyers from 300k to 550k ith gifts from their parents.



House purchase is cultural thing as well, as the men have to purchase a house in order to win their partners family...something amongst these lines.


I'm not going to derail this thread....


Now back to Irish market..... it seems A&P forum has been active with so many people reading to hop on the ladder....some saving more than usual(like myself). However the talk of bargains...50% drops here and there has me uneasy.....maybe be uneasy... cant find the word. There will be some diasspointed folks when houses prices dont fall by this amount.

James 007

Over 2 weeks ago I posted regarding this house. To me its only worth half of its value, some posters mentioned to compare it to a one bed apartment in the area. For me my bug bear was no windows,view and no proper garden. The tree trunk to the front was its only pride and joy.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/bungalows-for-sale/rathgar/125-rathgar-road-rathgar-dublin-2477742/

Since then I guess Covid-19 has taken hold in this area, but closeby there are 3no. houses located not too far that I would probably jump with before the heap of a shed above. I know the shed is Terenure and the other houses listed below are probably Tempalogue.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/7-wainsfort-crescent-terenure-dublin-2438275/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/12-wainsfort-crescent-terenure-terenure-dublin-2377740/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/11-wainsfort-crescent-terenure-dublin-2477708/

Any thoughts

Graham

James 007 wrote: »

Any thoughts

Different areas have different appeal/value.

An Ri rua

James 007 wrote: »

Over 2 weeks ago I posted regarding this house. To me its only worth half of its value, some posters mentioned to compare it to a one bed apartment in the area. For me my bug bear was no windows,view and no proper garden. The tree trunk to the front was its only pride and joy.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/bungalows-for-sale/rathgar/125-rathgar-road-rathgar-dublin-2477742/

Since then I guess Covid-19 has taken hold in this area, but closeby there are 3no. houses located not too far that I would probably jump with before the heap of a shed above. I know the shed is Terenure and the other houses listed below are probably Tempalogue.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/7-wainsfort-crescent-terenure-dublin-2438275/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/12-wainsfort-crescent-terenure-terenure-dublin-2377740/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/11-wainsfort-crescent-terenure-dublin-2477708/

Any thoughts

The 1st property is the kind of proposition that encourages 2+hour each way commutes. Hopefully, we'll see sanity rearing its head.You could buy a mansion for that price in Laois/Offaly etc.
Unsure if you've seen Neil McCoy Ward's videos on Youtube. Good analysis re an outflow of workers away from city centres as hybrid and WFH takes hold.

Ush1

James 007 wrote: »

Over 2 weeks ago I posted regarding this house. To me its only worth half of its value, some posters mentioned to compare it to a one bed apartment in the area. For me my bug bear was no windows,view and no proper garden. The tree trunk to the front was its only pride and joy.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/bungalows-for-sale/rathgar/125-rathgar-road-rathgar-dublin-2477742/

Since then I guess Covid-19 has taken hold in this area, but closeby there are 3no. houses located not too far that I would probably jump with before the heap of a shed above. I know the shed is Terenure and the other houses listed below are probably Tempalogue.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/7-wainsfort-crescent-terenure-dublin-2438275/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/12-wainsfort-crescent-terenure-terenure-dublin-2377740/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/terenure/11-wainsfort-crescent-terenure-dublin-2477708/

Any thoughts

First one is actually in Rathgar, the address it said.

The other three look more Perrystown than Terenure. Big difference in commute times to the city centre and the areas themselves.

Markitron

James 007 wrote: »

Any thoughts

I agree with you. Its a very fancy shed in a decent location, but it is still a shed with prison bars over the windows, and it looks like its effectively on someone else's driveway. I wouldn't even pay half their asking, don't care where it is.

ElBastardo1

Markitron wrote: »

I agree with you. Its a very fancy shed in a decent location, but it is still a shed with prison bars over the windows, and it looks like its effectively on someone else's driveway. I wouldn't even pay half their asking, don't care where it is.

Couldnt agree more, reminds me of this place.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/ticknock/ticknock-rd-ticknock-dublin-2472459/

Live in someones elses garden. absolute joke

Markitron

ElBastardo1 wrote: »

Couldnt agree more, reminds me of this place.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/ticknock/ticknock-rd-ticknock-dublin-2472459/

Live in someones elses garden. absolute joke

I once went to view a house for rent in Dublin, was shown as a 2-story house in the ad. Found out about 10 mins into the viewing that the entire upstairs was rented out to a family, couldn't get out of there fast enough.

I have no idea why they bother hiding this kind of thing, wastes everyone's time.

DB197840

The other 3 I have been viewing also myself and they are more Perrystown than Templeogue. Sure I had an estate agent trying to convince me Manor Estate was Terenure also. Lol. Not bad houses but overpriced in my opinion for the imprint they have. I’ve been looking around the Walkinstown,Kimmage and Perrystown areas since February and a lot of the houses need serious work to update. Some lovely houses but prices are still fairly high for what they are.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Some people better not have a look at this: https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/121665199/couple-buys-rundown-kingsland-villa-for-114m-eight-miss-out

That's €625,414

If we have a significant recession, job losses, less lending, less money in the economy, paycuts, higher taxes etc then it's hard to see anything other than a fall in house prices here.

I fail to understand how it could be any other way.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

If we have a significant recession, job losses, less lending, less money in the economy, paycuts, higher taxes etc then it's hard to see anything other than a fall in house prices here.

I fail to understand how it could be any other way.

I think there might be a modest price fall for less desirable properties or those subject to forced sale, but owners of decent properties won't go to market. I, will put mine up, but it will be at around current values. The REA and buying public might be annoyed, but it will be interesting for me.

But if there is a decline, it won't be by much, or for very long, because the supply of houses is way below demand, and only some of the demand is going away. This is why I am so interested in looking at what's happening in some overseas housing markets, like Oz, NZ and the US, where I keep seeing the same severe lack of supply staving off the expected severe price falls some were anticipating.

A lot of buyers over the last decade have bought for cash. Public servants comprise about a fifth of those employed and they are relatively wealthy and over paid. Lots of potential buyers won't be financially impacted, only a sub-set.

Taylor365

James 007 wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/bungalows-for-sale/rathgar/125-rathgar-road-rathgar-dublin-2477742/

Any thoughts

Ahhhhhhahahahah :pac:


I take it, it comes with 0.5 of an acre site?

Cyrus

cnocbui wrote: »

I think there might be a modest price fall for less desirable properties or those subject to forced sale, but owners of decent properties won't go to market. I, will put mine up, but it will be at around current values. The REA and buying public might be annoyed, but it will be interesting for me.

But if there is a decline, it won't be by much, or for very long, because the supply of houses is way below demand, and only some of the demand is going away. This is why I am so interested in looking at what's happening in some overseas housing markets, like Oz, NZ and the US, where I keep seeing the same severe lack of supply staving off the expected severe price falls some were anticipating.

A lot of buyers over the last decade have bought for cash. Public servants comprise about a fifth of those employed and they are relatively wealthy and over paid. Lots of potential buyers won't be financially impacted, only a sub-set.

Jesus public servants are unlikely to prop up the Dublin high end market to be fair

Mic 1972

Not sure about public servant myself :-) but definitely cash buyers are coming forward

cunnifferous

cnocbui wrote: »

I think there might be a modest price fall for less desirable properties or those subject to forced sale, but owners of decent properties won't go to market. I, will put mine up, but it will be at around current values. The REA and buying public might be annoyed, but it will be interesting for me.

But if there is a decline, it won't be by much, or for very long, because the supply of houses is way below demand, and only some of the demand is going away. This is why I am so interested in looking at what's happening in some overseas housing markets, like Oz, NZ and the US, where I keep seeing the same severe lack of supply staving off the expected severe price falls some were anticipating.

A lot of buyers over the last decade have bought for cash. Public servants comprise about a fifth of those employed and they are relatively wealthy and over paid. Lots of potential buyers won't be financially impacted, only a sub-set.

Where did you get these figures from? The most recent figures I've seen from 2018, the public sector made up 14.8% of the workforce which is lower than many OECD countries.

Also I can't see many people on CO/EO/AO/nurse/gardai salaries, who make up the bulk of the public sector, propping up the current prices.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

I think there might be a modest price fall for less desirable properties or those subject to forced sale, but owners of decent properties won't go to market. I, will put mine up, but it will be at around current values. The REA and buying public might be annoyed, but it will be interesting for me.

But if there is a decline, it won't be by much, or for very long, because the supply of houses is way below demand, and only some of the demand is going away. This is why I am so interested in looking at what's happening in some overseas housing markets, like Oz, NZ and the US, where I keep seeing the same severe lack of supply staving off the expected severe price falls some were anticipating.

A lot of buyers over the last decade have bought for cash. Public servants comprise about a fifth of those employed and they are relatively wealthy and over paid. Lots of potential buyers won't be financially impacted, only a sub-set.

Only time will tell I suppose.

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

Jesus public servants are unlikely to prop up the Dublin high end market to be fair

cunnifferous wrote: »

Where did you get these figures from? The most recent figures I've seen from 2018, the public sector made up 14.8% of the workforce which is lower than many OECD countries.

Also I can't see many people on CO/EO/AO/nurse/gardai salaries, who make up the bulk of the public sector, propping up the current prices.

19.5% of the workforce in 2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_sector


https://www.europeandatajournalism.eu/eng/News/Data-news/Public-employees-comparisons-between-European-countries-are-deceptive

They are not poorly paid.

Public sector workers get paid 40pc more on average than their private sector counterparts, a report claims.

By contrast, in the UK public sector pay is almost on a par with the private sector, with Ireland’s public/private pay gap high by European standards, the paper states.

The study by Davy Stockbrokers argues that any future growth in public sector pay should at most only match pay rises in the private sector.

“Ideally, the pay gap should close over time,” wrote Davy economist Conall Mac Coille, author of the report.

“Public sector pay rises should also be conditional on the on-going performance of the economy and tax revenues, guarding against the risks from Brexit, corporate tax reform and other economic uncertainties.”

The report notes the average public sector wage last year here was €47,400 – 40pc higher than in the private sector.

Around half of this pay gap can be attributed to differences in education, experience and qualifications, the paper said.

But in the UK, average public sector pay is £26,200 (€30,200) – almost exactly that of the private sector. Davy said Ireland’s public/private pay gap is on a par with southern European countries such as Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain.

“The public sector also enjoys retirement benefits that need to be taken into consideration,” the report states.

“On our calculations, a private sector worker would need to save a €590,000 pension to match the same €23,000 paid per annum to public sector workers when they retire on a career-average salary scheme. The figures are higher for those with defined benefit pensions linked to their final salary.”

https://kilcoyneaccountants.ie/public-sector-pay-outstrips-private-workers-by-40pc/

cnocbui

Some relevant headlines:

Cash buyers snapping up cheaper homes is pushing up prices
More than half of Irish houses are bought with cash - and big international funds are cleaning up

There have been times when 60% of house purchases were by cash buyers.

Graham

cnocbui wrote: »

Some relevant headlines:

Relevant now, or when they were published in 2016 and 2018?

Cyrus

cnocbui wrote: »

19.5% of the workforce in 2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_sector


https://www.europeandatajournalism.eu/eng/News/Data-news/Public-employees-comparisons-between-European-countries-are-deceptive

They are not poorly paid.

https://kilcoyneaccountants.ie/public-sector-pay-outstrips-private-workers-by-40pc/

Never said they were poorly paid but again they won’t be propping up the scd property market

cnocbui

Graham wrote: »

Relevant now, or when they were published in 2016 and 2018?

I was taking a wild guess that they aren't just a two year wonder and that at any given time, cash buyers likely comprise a significant percentage of the total.

Marcusm

Cyrus wrote: »

Jesus public servants are unlikely to prop up the Dublin high end market to be fair

New medical consultant contract with 250k entry level and 350-500 empty posts (assume 40% Dublin) will be a factor!

cunnifferous

cnocbui wrote: »

19.5% of the workforce in 2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_sector


https://www.europeandatajournalism.eu/eng/News/Data-news/Public-employees-comparisons-between-European-countries-are-deceptive

They are not poorly paid.

https://kilcoyneaccountants.ie/public-sector-pay-outstrips-private-workers-by-40pc/

You were speaking present tense saying 'comprise' and then quote a paper from 2014? I showed you the most recent information I could find from 2018 showing your assertion to be incorrect.

You also said that our 'overpaid' public servants are 'relatively wealthy'. Again what would two EO's or Nurses or Gardai in the middle of their respective payscales be able to afford on 3.5X LTI?

cunnifferous

Marcusm wrote: »

New medical consultant contract with 250k entry level and 350-500 empty posts (assume 40% Dublin) will be a factor!

What % of the public servants are medical consultants? An tiny fraction. Are you expecting 350-500 consultants (assuming all posts are filled which isn't guaranteed) to have any kind of sizable effect on national property prices?

Dylan94

This could have been posted already but I seen this from PTSB, they are expecting lending to reduce by 50% this year, if this is replicated across most other banks it spells disaster for the economy and the property market.

The loss of €850m in lending from that one bank alone could theoretically remove €10.5 billion from the economy.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0514/1138314-permanent-tsb-trading-update/

Deub

cnocbui wrote: »

A lot of buyers over the last decade have bought for cash. Public servants comprise about a fifth of those employed and they are relatively wealthy and over paid. Lots of potential buyers won't be financially impacted, only a sub-set.

By saying the part above, does it mean you don’t expect a recession in the coming months?

cnocbui

Deub wrote: »

By saying the part above, does it mean you don’t expect a recession in the coming months?

No, I do expect a recession, though it's length is uncertain, but I do think the majority of people wont become unemployed or see significant loss of income, unless the government decides to use taxation to prolong the recession as long as they can, which unfortunately is probably the biggest risk.

Cyrus

Marcusm wrote: »

New medical consultant contract with 250k entry level and 350-500 empty posts (assume 40% Dublin) will be a factor!

Yes granted but unless they are married to another one they still top out at 1m unless there is family money on the deposit side and they make up a tiny tiny percentage of the civil service but I take the point.