Property Market 2020

Marius34

Looking at the myhome open viewings. Seems its coming back. Was expecting open viewings only from 29 June.
There are quite a number being added today, mostly for the Weekend open viewings. Will see how it will work out.

Taylor365

Experience_day wrote: »

I will be honest and say I've got no idea about outside of Dublin, never applied for a role outside and never will..

No, you misunderstood.


Salaries in Dublin are not what you think they are.

Reversal

Marius34 wrote: »

Anyone who don't see major price fall have vested interest, or who are they?
Well you are the one, coming with Bias information just trying to pick up any negative points on property price. Which is ok, it's common withing people selectively pick up only negative or positive information.
But what its not nice, that just few months ago you was telling about obvious significant price fall in Pre-Covid times. And even now, that most of Pre-Covid market sales completed, you still would not recognize that price was not falling back than.
We don't know yet well the impact of the Covid. But it's weird to not see the case of the past on Property Market, that there were no real price fall in Ireland in Pre-Covid.

I remember exactly what I said. I expressed the belief that the market had begun to soften before and seperate to the COVID effect, specifically in a S Dublin context. While you say there has been no real price drops, the facts would beg to differ.

Q1 daft report shows YOY asking price reductions of between 3-5%



CSO figures prove that we had seen a 3% "actual drop" in achieved prices since the October 2018 peak, in Dublin as a whole, pre COVID.



But I'm sure you'll pass these raw figures off as bias. Apparently more biased than the opinions of someone who has skin in the game...

Mic 1972

Reversal wrote: »

I remember exactly what I said. I expressed the belief that the market had begun to soften before and seperate to the COVID effect, specifically in a S Dublin context. While you say there has been no real price drops, the facts would beg to differ.

Q1 daft report shows YOY asking price reductions of between 3-5%


CSO figures prove that we had seen a 3% "actual drop" in achieved prices since the October 2018 peak, in Dublin as a whole, pre COVID.


But I'm sure you'll pass these raw figures off as bias. Apparently more biased than the opinions of someone who has skin in the game...

The 2020 stats are telling a different story, look at the PPR prices at the link below
Median price for Dublin - in red - is spiking. You are correct about the Q4 2019 decline, unfortunately the market has picked up already. Maybe it will decline sometime in Q4, as of now it look mysteriously healthy



https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

Experience_day

Taylor365 wrote: »

No, you misunderstood.


Salaries in Dublin are not what you think they are.

I'm going off my own experience not saying I'm gospel. I'm saying that I was on 60s in my twenties and I'm not a high performer.

And going back to my original point there's a lot of people like me (enough to skew figures) that are in the same boat and who have now saved a lot....well on way to buy a property.

Whether it helps house prices who knows.....

Mic 1972

awec wrote: »

This sort of role is not really IT, this just sounds like typical low-skill call center first-line support work.

IT workers have degrees and job titles like software engineer, data scientist, program manager, business analyst, service engineer etc..

I guess it depends on what the true definition of "IT" is. If you expand it to include anyone who works with computers then the salary range will obviously be much larger.

Technically any IT job, including entry level, should be labelled IT.
Apple pays 28K for front-line software support, you need to pass a tech test to qualify for interview and then pass another tech test after training is completed. It's not you average low-skill call centre job.
General call centre jobs go for 20-22K

Business Analyst and Program Manager apply to a variety of industries, not only IT

Marius34

Reversal wrote: »

I remember exactly what I said. I expressed the belief that the market had begun to soften before and seperate to the COVID effect, specifically in a S Dublin context. While you say there has been no real price drops, the facts would beg to differ.

Q1 daft report shows YOY asking price reductions of between 3-5%



CSO figures prove that we had seen a 3% "actual drop" in achieved prices since the October 2018 peak, in Dublin as a whole, pre COVID.

I'm talking about you saying price falling 2-3 months ago. You wasn't just speaking about South Dublin.
If you want to be objective, what's the point to choose always Oct 2018 point? If the price will fluctate around +/-3% for the next few years, will you keep telling that price are falling? I can find lower point, and say that is going up always. There is no real direction for the last 2 years.

As well what's the point to pickup specifically Dublin South, to discuss the price Market in Dublin or Ireland, if you want objective discussion.

But I'm sure you'll pass these raw figures off as bias. Apparently more biased than the opinions of someone who has skin in the game...

Whom you are referring this to? Makes no sense to repeat constantly in your comments.

Graham

Mod Note

Reversal, pretty much everyone posting in this thread has skin in the game or a vested interest of some sort. Some as property professionals, some as homeowners, some as landlords, some as tenants, some as first time buyers.

It's not necessary to state that obvious point in every single post as though there's an underlying conspiracy.

Reversal

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

Reversal, pretty much everyone posting in this thread has skin in the game or a vested interest of some sort. Some as property professionals, some as homeowners, some as landlords, some as tenants, some as first time buyers.

It's not necessary to state that obvious point in every single post as though there's an underlying conspiracy.

"Every single post", or more accurately you mean my last two posts which were directly in response to a property professional trying to label objective comments as "bias"?

Agreed, everyone has a bias, which is going to come into the discussion. I'd argue it shouldn't influence the moderation of a thread though.

Browney7

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The 2020 stats are telling a different story, look at the PPR prices at the link below
Median price for Dublin - in red - is spiking. You are correct about the Q4 2019 decline, unfortunately the market has picked up already. Maybe it will decline sometime in Q4, as of now it look mysteriously healthy


https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

The median price went up in April but the volume of sales took a serious hit so. The median quoted there looks to be a "crude" median of the properties sold on PPR and not standardised for a constant mix of property so if a greater volume of new builds or bigger property sold in the month it would cause distortions. The May median is significantly lower on smaller volume again but the price trend since Jan in the source you quoted is downward.

Mic 1972

Browney7 wrote: »

The median price went up in April but the volume of sales took a serious hit so. The median quoted there looks to be a "crude" median of the properties sold on PPR and not standardised for a constant mix of property so if a greater volume of new builds or bigger property sold in the month it would cause distortions. The May median is significantly lower on smaller volume again but the price trend since Jan in the source you quoted is downward.

That's how that report works, the latest month always looks low volume
Prices in 2020 so far looks igher than last years same time

Marius34

Browney7 wrote: »

The median price went up in April but the volume of sales took a serious hit so. The median quoted there looks to be a "crude" median of the properties sold on PPR and not standardised for a constant mix of property so if a greater volume of new builds or bigger property sold in the month it would cause distortions. The May median is significantly lower on smaller volume again but the price trend since Jan in the source you quoted is downward.

Right the report looks "crude". Actually proportion of New builds was normal in April, but very low in May, in particular in Dublin, very low number of New build transactions. There is massive price increase in "row" data seen in April, I believe due to some "Bulk" sales of higher end properties.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That's how that report works, the latest month always looks low volume
Prices in 2020 so far looks igher than last years same time

That's right latest month always low volume, takes over month to see result, but the amount it gets added on weekly basis since middle of April is around 40% lower.

Besides, I have done some dashboards on PPR data, for my data engineering studies, on different calculations, cleaning data and reducing anomalies.
Sharing one of it, hope it works (never tried to share before), I'm happy to provide any other dashboard if there is interest to see anything specific out of PPR:
https://datastudio.google.com/s/rk-PSHr2Qx4

Geuze

makeorbrake wrote: »

Bringing this back to the context of property, I bought my house in 2005. Fifteen years later, it is still 40% under water in terms of the price/value of the property.

Really?

Still 40% below the original price paid?

I bought in 2005.

I sold in 2019, making a 2.8% capital loss, comparing price paid and received.

OK, I had made improvements, maybe costing 50k over the years.

So in reality I lost more.


Is it apartments that are still 40% below 2005 prices?

Geuze

The earnings of mortgage applicants are published.

Let me try to find the info.

https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/household-credit-market-report/household-credit-market-report-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=6

See section 3.1

Geuze

FTB in Dublin:

average income = 89k
age = 34
deposit = 79k
LTI = 3.4
29 yr mortgage
LTV = 80%

theintern

Geuze wrote: »

FTB in Dublin:

average income = 89k
age = 34
deposit = 79k
LTI = 3.4
29 yr mortgage
LTV = 80%

The average deposits are surprisingly large are they not? Average deposit for a ftb of over 20 percent of the average house price, the guts of a years salary?

Outside of Dublin it's an average of 20 percent of the house price too it seems.

Geuze

Bear in mind many applications will be two people?

Geuze

I had a 44% deposit in 2005, although I admit that is not typical.

But I'm not surprised with 20% deposits.

Two people saving for ten years...................

awec

I assume it's the mean deposit, which is easily skewed upward by people with enormous deposits obtained through inheritance etc.

Rte reporting asking prices have risen during May after a fall in April.

Billythekid19

The boom is back baby! The price of housing across the country has risen by 3.7% in May.


Albeit the latest Daft.ie Housing Market Report shows the rebound after the cost of buying a home fell by 5.5% in April.:)

theintern

awec wrote: »

I assume it's the mean deposit, which is easily skewed upward by people with enormous deposits obtained through inheritance etc.

Could be the case alright. Median would probably be more interesting.

Cuddlesworth

awec wrote: »

I assume it's the mean deposit, which is easily skewed upward by people with enormous deposits obtained through inheritance etc.

Average age is 34 and average income is 90k(I'd assume that's combined for most). Its not that hard to assume inheritance isn't a large part of it.

wassie

Deleted User wrote: »

Rte reporting asking prices have risen during May after a fall in April.

The key word is "ASKING" prices..... let's wait until we actually have some hard evidence in sales data.

jimmytwotimes 2013

Geuze wrote: »

Really?

Still 40% below the original price paid?

I bought in 2005.

I sold in 2019, making a 2.8% capital loss, comparing price paid and received.

OK, I had made improvements, maybe costing 50k over the years.

So in reality I lost more.


Is it apartments that are still 40% below 2005 prices?

Don't normally post here but prob hoping to sell next year.

Bought in 2005 for 195k, the absolute most my place will sell for will be 150k but most likely 140k.

Was a new 3-bed semi in a nice area. House value never recovered

Assetbacked

wassie wrote: »

The key word is "ASKING" prices..... let's wait until we actually have some hard evidence in sales data.

There will not be a lot of completed transactions so even sales data will be limited. The sales data from the few transactions which are completed will only be of a portion of the market and will not be an indicator of the market in general. It will not look so bad and will be spun as such by the media. However, the reality is that there is uncertainty and it is not credible to claim that the market is normal based on what has happened the last few months. That's the only conclusion I can make right now!

awec

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Average age is 34 and average income is 90k(I'd assume that's combined for most). Its not that hard to assume inheritance isn't a large part of it.

Even on 90k, a 79k deposit is enormous.

The average FTB is definitely not saving that sort of money.

Graham

Is HTB included in the deposit figures?

Reversal

Asking prices dropped 5.5% in a MONTH, then recovered 3.7% in a MONTH. Those are extreme figures, and the assessment of the Institute of Professional Auctioneers & Valuers is;

"the housing market is likely to be more stable over the course of the next 12 to 18 months than many had thought."

Absolute comedy gold

In reality, the erratic figures are probably down to a relative lack of data during a effectively shut down market. And actual sales figures will be also, for a time.

Geuze

jimmytwotimes 2013 wrote: »

Don't normally post here but prob hoping to sell next year.

Bought in 2005 for 195k, the absolute most my place will sell for will be 150k but most likely 140k.

Was a new 3-bed semi in a nice area. House value never recovered

Ok.

195k to 140k is a 28% fall.