Property Market 2020

kokiyou

I am not sure if the data is available but if it is would anyone know where to find:

1. How many mortgages (particularly) FTB are single applicant vs 2 or more people, ie couples or parental help etc?

2. As mentioned today, is there any detailed Household Gross income information from recent years 2018/2019 that show HH income by single person, or at least per age bracket to remove OAP or youth, married couples etc?

It seems like other countries have easily accessible information on wages/income vs Irelands data - or else I am not so good at googling.

Geuze

Interested Observer wrote: »

Stupid question but are the figures given for household income gross or net? Edit - the RTE article is gross so I was wondering if it was a gross v net comparison or something. If you'd ask me to guess the median household income in Ireland I definitely would have gone higher than 45k. Though I suppose that includes plenty of people who aren't in the home buying demographic, like pensioners or basically anyone in their 20s, people in social housing, etc.

Earnings and incomes are always quoted gross.

Be careful with CSO data.

Earnings is not the same as income.

Direct income
+ social transfers
= gross household income
- direct taxes
= disposable household income


All income data here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/socialconditions/surveyonincomeandlivingconditionssilc/

Interested Observer

kokiyou wrote: »

I am not sure if the data is available but if it is would anyone know where to find:

1. How many mortgages (particularly) FTB are single applicant vs 2 or more people, ie couples or parental help etc?

2. As mentioned today, is there any detailed Household Gross income information from recent years 2018/2019 that show HH income by single person, or at least per age bracket to remove OAP or youth, married couples etc?

It seems like other countries have easily accessible information on wages/income vs Irelands data - or else I am not so good at googling.

I saw this in a report before but I can't find it again, but from memory the clear majority, 70%+, were applications from couples as opposed to single applicants. Not sure where data on parental help would come from, I doubt that can be tracked beyond running a survey or something.

The CSO has data on household income, lots of it: https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/earnings/, https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/generalstatisticalpublications/geographicalprofilesofincomeinireland/

Geuze

Here is household income data for 2018:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-silc/surveyonincomeandlivingconditionssilc2018/


Here are the median figures:

2018 gross HH income = 49,260, bear in mind this includes social transfers, and is an average across all HH types

2018 disp HH income = 42,865



Here are the 2018 median figures for HH heading by a worker = 56,067 disposable income

LuckyLloyd

lastusername wrote: »

Wow, does that mean that only 14% of households have an income where two people are on an average of 50k+ (or one person on 100k+)?!

Yes, it does.

Geuze

lastusername wrote: »

Wow, does that mean that only 14% of households have an income where two people are on an average of 50k+ (or one person on 100k+)?!

I'll have a look for you.


https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-silc/surveyonincomeandlivingconditionssilc2018/income/

See tables 2.4, 2.5, 2.6.

Geuze

lastusername wrote: »

Wow, does that mean that only 14% of households have an income where two people are on an average of 50k+ (or one person on 100k+)?!

I am looking at table 2.5.

The top 10% have a weekly gross HH income of 4,318.

After tax, the top decile is left with 2,591 per week disposable income.

Geuze

lastusername wrote: »

Wow, does that mean that only 14% of households have an income where two people are on an average of 50k+ (or one person on 100k+)?!

The RTE article you are quoted is referring to this:


https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-gpii/geographicalprofilesofincomeinireland2016/

CSO data on household incomes in 2016, by geography.

That 14.1% refers to HH gross income.

Here is the data for HH gross income:

2016 median = 45,256 in the Geog report (published June 2019) or 44,676 in the regular 2018 SILC, published Nov 2019

2017 median = 45,631

2018 median = 49,260

Reversal

seamus wrote: »

It's certainly weird.

The most reasonable explanation is just a low volume of sales.

Once everyone is properly back to work and the economic shocks start to hit, we'll see that 5.5% repeated again for a number of months.

Agreed, when the data set is small, month to month figures are going to be erratic.

And yes it's asking prices, so what EA is going to advise their clients to apply a discount to the asking price now. The asking prices are only going to be based on the most recent sales of similar properties, which were pre COVID. The only possible effect on asking prices at the moment is artificial inflation, to offset low ball offers.

The fact that a body representing property professionals use two months worth of limited data, that shows extreme volatility, to say that it's business as usual and nothing to see here, is embarrassing. The dog on the street knows the economic hardship that is only coming over the horizon now. Yet they go on record saying a monthly drop of 5.5% and a bounce of 3.7% is evidence of stable prices for the next 18 months. What planet do these people operate on.

Billythekid19

lastusername wrote: »

Wow, does that mean that only 14% of households have an income where two people are on an average of 50k+ (or one person on 100k+)?!

My Issue with the CSO figures is that it only factors in the official income of people.
Your typical mechanic/plumber/ Electrician is officially would often be down as on less than 50k. However how many times have you paid for these jobs with cash in hand, and at 50-100 euro an hour they are certainly on over 50k if working 40 hour weeks!

Mic 1972

shatners bassoon wrote: »

Asking price is no barometer.

Several places I've been keeping an eye on have been relisted with a substantial increase in asking price, clearly aimed at factoring in a 'discount' to an unsuspecting purchaser.

I wouldn't say it's a no barometer. Asking price has its peculiar dynamics, as you pointed out most listings now appear with higher asking prices than a few weeks/months ago. But if the property market were to decline than Asking prices eventually would follow as seen during the last recession

DellyBelly

Billythekid19 wrote: »

My Issue with the CSO figures is that it only factors in the official income of people.
Your typical mechanic/plumber/ Electrician is officially would often be down as on less than 50k. However how many times have you paid for these jobs with cash in hand, and at 50-100 euro an hour they are certainly on over 50k if working 40 hour weeks!

I agree with you. I think the average wage for Dublin would be in the 65K + bracket I would think. Most of my friends would be on greater than that to be honest. I am unsure how someone could survive on Dublin on less than 50K a year...and even that is a poor enough salary..

awec

Reversal wrote: »

Agreed, when the data set is small, month to month figures are going to be erratic.

And yes it's asking prices, so what EA is going to advise their clients to apply a discount to the asking price now. The asking prices are only going to be based on the most recent sales of similar properties, which were pre COVID. The only possible effect on asking prices at the moment is artificial inflation, to offset low ball offers.

The fact that a body representing property professionals use two months worth of limited data, that shows extreme volatility, to say that it's business as usual and nothing to see here, is embarrassing. The dog on the street knows the economic hardship that is only coming over the horizon now. Yet they go on record saying a monthly drop of 5.5% and a bounce of 3.7% is evidence of stable prices for the next 18 months. What planet do these people operate on.

If they had used two months of data to say that prices are about to fall off a cliff would you be complaining?

Data right now is obviously skewed massively, but some seem happy to use it if it backs up their own view, while outright dismissing it if it doesn't.

Browney7

Marius34 wrote: »

Right the report looks "crude". Actually proportion of New builds was normal in April, but very low in May, in particular in Dublin, very low number of New build transactions. There is massive price increase in "row" data seen in April, I believe due to some "Bulk" sales of higher end properties.



That's right latest month always low volume, takes over month to see result, but the amount it gets added on weekly basis since middle of April is around 40% lower.

Besides, I have done some dashboards on PPR data, for my data engineering studies, on different calculations, cleaning data and reducing anomalies.
Sharing one of it, hope it works (never tried to share before), I'm happy to provide any other dashboard if there is interest to see anything specific out of PPR:
https://datastudio.google.com/s/rk-PSHr2Qx4

Spot on - in the price register, some bulk sales are registered on the one line and other times the apartments are listed 1 by 1.

In this case, the Mount Argus scheme was registered as 155 entries out of the total 2551 entries on the PPR for April. These 155 apartments were registered for 93 million total including 13.5% VAT. I see a median of 255k national when these are listed line by line. When I combined these as the one item for 93 million the median drops to 242k. There are a range of bulk entries for April so using the median as a measure isn't without its pitfalls and shows the peculiarities of the PPR raw data.

Geuze

DellyBelly wrote: »

I agree with you. I think the average wage for Dublin would be in the 65K + bracket I would think. Most of my friends would be on greater than that to be honest. I am unsure how someone could survive on Dublin on less than 50K a year...and even that is a poor enough salary..

2016 median HH gross income


County Household median gross income
State 45,256

Dublin City 47,294
South Dublin 52,759
Fingal 58,795
Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown 66,203

Reversal

awec wrote: »

If they had used two months of data to say that prices are about to fall off a cliff would you be complaining?

Data right now is obviously skewed massively, but some seem happy to use it if it backs up their own view, while outright dismissing it if it doesn't.

Where did I outright dismiss the data? I commented on the use of data, which shows anything but a stable market, to declare stability in the market for the next 18 months. Highlighted the pitfalls of using such a small data set, yes, dismissed it, no.

Please enlighten me as to where I've been happy to use an equally dubious set of stats becaus it backed up my own view. Some seem happy to not even read a post properly if doesn't back up theirs.

JimmyVik

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

We’re all limited by our anecdotal experience. People in the top 10% of incomes often assume they are nowhere near that bracket. This is particularly true for college educated people who work professional jobs where the majority of their friends do the same. I’m in that bracket and I struggle to accept where we sit versus average / median incomes. It doesn’t feel true.

The income figures from the CSO are gross. I’ll comfortably assume the income figures in the central bank data are gross too.

If you look at the actual € amount you pay in tax compared to someone in a much lower salary bracket than you you will see why the actual difference in income is not what the gross difference suggests. Thats probably why it doesnt feel like it to you

Mitch Connor

JimmyVik wrote: »

If you look at the actual € amount you pay in tax compared to someone in a much lower salary bracket than you you will see why the actual difference in income is not what the gross difference suggests. Thats probably why it doesnt feel like it to you

Yup, when I saw the difference between what I paid in tax last year vs the wife, I was a little shocked!

Shelga

So do people think there will be a significant drop in property prices over the next year, or not? I know it's an unusual situation with no precedent, but I'm starting to think there won't be.

Going absolutely mad living at home, had planned on being well on my way to having keys in my hand by now. Anyway, it'll be like the queue at the supermarket- whatever one you choose will be the wrong one. If I buy now, prices are sure to drop by 20%. If I don't buy now, they'll stay the same. Attempting to buy as a single person so I'm screwed either way.

Marius34

Reversal wrote: »

"the housing market is likely to be more stable over the course of the next 12 to 18 months than many had thought."

Absolute comedy gold

Reversal wrote: »

The fact that a body representing property professionals use two months worth of limited data, that shows extreme volatility, to say that it's business as usual and nothing to see here, is embarrassing. The dog on the street knows the economic hardship that is only coming over the horizon now. Yet they go on record saying a monthly drop of 5.5% and a bounce of 3.7% is evidence of stable prices for the next 18 months. What planet do these people operate on.

Reversal wrote: »

Where did I outright dismiss the data? I commented on the use of data, which shows anything but a stable market, to declare stability in the market for the next 18 months. Highlighted the pitfalls of using such a small data set, yes, dismissed it, no.
Please enlighten me as to where I've been happy to use an equally dubious set of stats becaus it backed up my own view. Some seem happy to not even read a post properly if doesn't back up theirs.

Your citation says:
"the housing market is likely to be more stable over the course of the next 12 to 18 months than many had thought."

Highlighted the words which you dismissed in your interpretation.

JimmyVik

Shelga wrote: »

So do people think there will be a significant drop in property prices over the next year, or not? I know it's an unusual situation with no precedent, but I'm starting to think there won't be.

Going absolutely mad living at home, had planned on being well on my way to having keys in my hand by now. Anyway, it'll be like the queue at the supermarket- whatever one you choose will be the wrong one. If I buy now, prices are sure to drop by 20%. If I don't buy now, they'll stay the same. Attempting to buy as a single person so I'm screwed either way.

It will follow jobs, trailing a little bit.
So I expect a drop while jobs have dropped.
If jobs rebound, which it looks like they will at this point, then house prices will follow a few months later.


If a second wave comes all bets are off. At this point im thinking if a second wave comes that contries will just weather it and not shut down. But who knows, a second wave my be devastating and force them to shut down.


Its all up in the air, but mainly follow the job numbers

q85dw7osi4lebg

I feel too many want a crash to happen that it won't happen.

Ush1

Stock market is like a rocket from the crypt. Can't see house prices dropping much short term.

lomb

Before Covid I dont think banks checked anything. Likely they dont want to lend now due to having lent out money to the 10% not paying their mortgage they dont want to overextend. Also their share prices have collapsed so they cant issue fresh share capital to buffer their balance sheets. They are looking for any excuse to get out. I drew down a few weeks ago but was a bit of a nightmare. And I had a pre Covid full loan offer in writing that was signed and valid pre Covid. I sense they would prefer if buyers pulled out of the purchases than they withdrew the offer. Im convinced property will fall by 20% minimum within 2 years saying all that and I think they probably realise that too leaving most new mortgages exposed on LTVs and negative equity

Assetbacked

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

I feel too many want a crash to happen that it won't happen.

The fact many want a crash indicates they are in a decent financial position and therefore a crash is not likely to happen in isolation (i.e. without job losses or salary/bonus cuts).

kokiyou

Thanks Geuze that is very interesting data.

Would be perfect if it was also broken down by age bracket, would be great to see where each of us fall in the top % earners etc.

I assume these gross earnings include RSUs, overtime, bonuses, rental income if you are a landlord etc. Interesting that some households will have 3 or more adults as earners.

Roberto_gas

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

I feel too many want a crash to happen that it won't happen.

Too many do not want the crash to happen so it wont happen :P:P:P !

Jokes aside the way stock market is moving another asset class will have to take the hit....whether its stocks themselves, property or gold time will tell !

Till then enjoy the QE show ! Its one of the best in recent times.

GavMan

lomb wrote: »

Before Covid I dont think banks checked anything. Likely they dont want to lend now due to having lent out money to the 10% not paying their mortgage they dont want to overextend. Also their share prices have collapsed so they cant issue fresh share capital to buffer their balance sheets. They are looking for any excuse to get out. I drew down a few weeks ago but was a bit of a nightmare. And I had a pre Covid full loan offer in writing that was signed and valid pre Covid. I sense they would prefer if buyers pulled out of the purchases than they withdrew the offer. Im convinced property will fall by 20% minimum within 2 years saying all that and I think they probably realise that too leaving most new mortgages exposed on LTVs and negative equity

And how exactly will banks be making money if they do not lend?

Where did you pluck 20% from? Or did you just throw out any old number that sounds good. There will be an increase in unemployment which will reduce the number of buyers potentially but we need to wait to see where we end up. The numbers are soft right now. Vast majority will go back to work.

Crucially and what is completely different to 2008 is that housing stock is still low. Vast majority of buyers will remain relatively untouched. But stock will still be low and we've lost 12 weeks of building. That will stabilize prices IMO

wassie

There is a serious disconnect in stock markets at the moment between valuations and earnings. The scale of the stimulus is giving markets an unprecedented sugar hit. But ultimately in the longer term as the support taps are turned off, if companies are not making profits, then it can only go one way.

Shelga wrote: »

So do people think there will be a significant drop in property prices over the next year, or not? I know it's an unusual situation with no precedent, but I'm starting to think there won't be.

Going absolutely mad living at home, had planned on being well on my way to having keys in my hand by now. Anyway, it'll be like the queue at the supermarket- whatever one you choose will be the wrong one. If I buy now, prices are sure to drop by 20%. If I don't buy now, they'll stay the same. Attempting to buy as a single person so I'm screwed either way.

Too early to tell. Property market has much longer times before we know which we it is going and the country is only reopening up. Your going to need a couple of months data before any one can answer your question with certainty.

Nijmegen

The income tax returns are likely a strong indicator of what's going to happen in the property market. Income tax was down 7.8% in May versus last year. That's despite unemployment reaching 28.2% in April (haven't seen May figures yet, but I can't imagine they're better). That doesn't count 427,400 people receiving the wage subsidy scheme, where the state and employer both kick in. Add that to the figure and you have 1.246m workers affected.

But income tax drops 7.8%...

So, who's losing their jobs? People who earn less money, generally, and weren't in or very far in the income tax bracket. Lot of part time workers, younger people. People who weren't buying a house any time soon or who were buying in the lower end of the market.

Builders have returned to sites on the expectation that developers can shift units to FTBs. There's a sign of confidence in the market. They're not having fire sales, either.

With the economy re-opening I think the expectations of a 20-40% price drop as feverishly suggested by some in these parts is not supported by the evidence we're currently seeing. I think if you wanted to move a 2nd hand unit you'd need to give a discount to get a deal over the line, but I'm not sure there's a systemic falling off the arse out of the trousers of the market. As noted earlier in the thread, the demand for household formation is still there; and as evidenced in the income tax returns, the people who want to form a household are likely still at work or at least having their income supported through the pandemic.