Property Market 2020

Villa05

I think commercial property is going to be the massive looser from the covid crisis
Was just at a meeting with a company that were heavily against wfh and they have had a complete re think after 3 months of it.

Employee survey showed 90% overall positivity towards it and of course the significant cost saving have not gone unnoticed by management

The genie is out of the bottle on WFH and we are going to have a significant Oversupply of commercial property.
Of course this could be turned into a huge advantage in a hard Brexit scenario as cost of office space would have been a detterent to UK business re locating here.
Now if we could get the cost of housing down also, massive opportunities await

Have we got the bottle to do it. Time will tell

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

I think commercial property is going to be the massive looser from the covid crisis
Was just at a meeting with a company that were heavily against wfh and they have had a complete re think after 3 months of it.

Employee survey showed 90% overall positivity towards it and of course the significant cost saving have not gone unnoticed by management

The genie is out of the bottle on WFH and we are going to have a significant Oversupply of commercial property.
Of course this could be turned into a huge advantage in a hard Brexit scenario as cost of office space would have been a detterent to UK business re locating here.
Now if we could get the cost of housing down also, massive opportunities await

Have we got the bottle to do it. Time will tell

I read that pre Covid there was an undersupply of grade A offices, hence all the construction. Moves to wfh would hopefully rebalance commercial rents. This could also help companies if they can re negotiate leases or take new leases at reduced rents. Flexibility for employer and employee is key.

brisan

Villa05 wrote: »

I think commercial property is going to be the massive looser from the covid crisis
Was just at a meeting with a company that were heavily against wfh and they have had a complete re think after 3 months of it.

Employee survey showed 90% overall positivity towards it and of course the significant cost saving have not gone unnoticed by management

The genie is out of the bottle on WFH and we are going to have a significant Oversupply of commercial property.
Of course this could be turned into a huge advantage in a hard Brexit scenario as cost of office space would have been a detterent to UK business re locating here.
Now if we could get the cost of housing down also, massive opportunities await

Have we got the bottle to do it. Time will tell

Convert some of those office blocks into apartments and hey presto big help to the housing market.
It’s the owners of shops that go bang that will struggle.
Who will give Johnny Roman 30k a week for the Bewleys building in this market.
If McDonalds on Grafton street have to operate at 30% capacity will they pay the high rents.
Shops opened this week and takings down by 70% on this week last year
Crash is only starting.
As the Bank of England said
The biggest recession in over 300 years.

TheSheriff

Villa05 wrote: »

I think commercial property is going to be the massive looser from the covid crisis
Was just at a meeting with a company that were heavily against wfh and they have had a complete re think after 3 months of it.

Employee survey showed 90% overall positivity towards it and of course the significant cost saving have not gone unnoticed by management

The genie is out of the bottle on WFH and we are going to have a significant Oversupply of commercial property.
Of course this could be turned into a huge advantage in a hard Brexit scenario as cost of office space would have been a detterent to UK business re locating here.
Now if we could get the cost of housing down also, massive opportunities await

Have we got the bottle to do it. Time will tell

Possibly the end of the likes of grand canal dock?

Will be interesting to see how it all plays out..... I would be more concerned about how a WFH strategy will affect your salary, promotion prospects etc.

TheSheriff

brisan wrote: »

Convert some of those office blocks into apartments and hey presto big help to the housing market.
It’s the owners of shops that go bang that will struggle.
Who will give Johnny Roman 30k a week for the Bewleys building in this market.
If McDonalds on Grafton street have to operate at 30% capacity will they pay the high rents.
Shops opened this week and takings down by 70% on this week last year
Crash is only starting.
As the Bank of England said
The biggest recession in over 300 years.

Surprised they were only down 70% tbh on this week last year, its been 2 days.......

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

Will be interesting to see how it all plays out..... I would be more concerned about how a WFH strategy will affect your salary, promotion prospects etc.

Survey shows that people on average people want to be in the office 2 days a week.
Cost savings from WFH would help alleviate any downward pressure on wages
Apparently productivity is easier to measure in a WFH set up
Promotion prospects would probably swing towards productivity, results and ability as opposed to who you sit with in the canteen

brisan

https://news.bitcoin.com/ecb-recession-europe/


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/10/fed-forecasts-economy/%3foutputType=amp

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/734e604b-93d9-43a6-a6ec-19e8b22dad3c

https://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/press-release-qb2-2020-3-april-2020

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189832.shtml


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/paschal-donohoe-economy-5079913-Apr2020/%3famp=1

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/residential-property-sales-could-fall-25-this-year-1.4245574%3fmode=amp

Estate agents predict a Softening of house prices
Who would have guessed it.
I see Auctioneera have gone off the boards
A good EA but holds the price of properties up to long because you can’t bid less than 10% below asking.
Some of their properties have taken spectacular false in asking price due to this
One last year in particular
Asking 395 k
Sold after months on the market at 332k

Markitron

brisan wrote: »

I see Auctioneera have gone off the boards

I actually think this is a bit of a shame. I didn't mind having an EA's opinion in the mix. I personally didn't think it was a conflict of interest either as most people here have a vested interest in the market anyway. Unfortunately just the presence of the account caused chaos here.

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Survey shows that people on average people want to be in the office 2 days a week.
Cost savings from WFH would help alleviate any downward pressure on wages
Apparently productivity is easier to measure in a WFH set up
Promotion prospects would probably swing towards productivity, results and ability as opposed to who you sit with in the canteen

Who on earth told you this nonsense?

Widespread remote working will be one of the largest factors in driving wages downward, the same as how cost of living is one of the largest factors in driving them upward. If you believe that any savings resulting from reduced capital expenditure by businesses is going to used to prop up wages then I have some snake oil here I'd like to sell you.

PommieBast

TheSheriff wrote: »

Will be interesting to see how it all plays out..... I would be more concerned about how a WFH strategy will affect your salary, promotion prospects etc.

I was going to say none because the way to get salary bumps is to change companies, but then it sprang to mind that WFH makes it a lot easier to slip in interviews on the side.

ebayissues

So many factors at stake ue to interlinkages.. thinking about it makes my head hurt


There are companies who outright own their buildings... Google and Facebook maybe. Some other companies have >15yrs leases. Will these guys be able to break out of their leases? I don't think so.



I'd say WFH will be the way going forward but when vaccine is here and cov19 a thing of the past, I see WFH 4/5 days a week.

awec

ebayissues wrote: »

So many factors at stake ue to interlinkages.. thinking about it makes my head hurt


There are companies who outright own their buildings... Google and Facebook maybe. Some other companies have >15yrs leases. Will these guys be able to break out of their leases? I don't think so.



I'd say WFH will be the way going forward but when vaccine is here and cov19 a thing of the past, I see WFH 4/5 days a week.

The problem the likes of Google and Facebook etc have is capacity. They aren't going to be giving up their office space. Facebook have spent a clean fortune on their new D4 HQ.

What remote work will allow them to do is expand their headcount beyond their current capacity without having to significantly increase their expenditure on buildings.

TheSheriff

PommieBast wrote: »

I was going to say none because the way to get salary bumps is to change companies, but then it sprang to mind that WFH makes it a lot easier to slip in interviews on the side.

But also presumably it will allow interviews to interview alot more potential employees also..... double edged sword.

manniot2

I am sure the coffee shops, lunch spots ,pubs etc must seriously be worried about their prospects with all these people going to WFH home in future. I guess those located in the subarbs may benefit, but the net impact on the economy will not be good.

awec

manniot2 wrote: »

I am sure the coffee shops, lunch spots ,pubs etc must seriously be worried about their prospects with all these people going to WFH home in future. I guess those located in the subarbs may benefit, but the net impact on the economy will not be good.

Great news for supermarkets as people WFH are far more likely to just make a lunch at home.

Terrible news for town and city centre businesses who would see their day-time footfall evaporate.

People WFH are much more likely to shop online, so all those high street shops will question what's the point in having a shop at all.

The WFH thing sounds good but people need to be careful what they wish for. Having people travel into town and city centres props up an awful lot of the economy.

Kilboor

awec wrote: »

Great news for supermarkets as people WFH are far more likely to just make a lunch at home.

Terrible news for town and city centre businesses who would see their day-time footfall evaporate.

People WFH are much more likely to shop online, so all those high street shops will question what's the point in having a shop at all.

The WFH thing sounds good but people need to be careful what they wish for. Having people travel into town and city centres props up an awful lot of the economy.

Mentally do we really want young people without families working from home too? I'm 25 and rent a room. WFH is not a comfortable experience for me, working, sleeping, and upskilling in the same room is not ideal and we all know it is not viable to rent a complete property at these prices. Socially it also creates greater gaps in communication especially for new team members and mental well being. These are points in addition to yours.

The solution is a balance, freedom to work from home a certain number of days a month/week.

errlloyd

Kilboor wrote: »

Mentally do we really want young people without families working from home too? I'm 25 and rent a room. WFH is not a comfortable experience for me, working, sleeping, and upskilling in the same room is not ideal and we all know it is not viable to rent a complete property at these prices. Socially it also creates greater gaps in communication especially for new team members and mental well being. These are points in addition to yours.

The solution is a balance, freedom to work from home a certain number of days a month/week.

Out of town coworking spaces would be nice too. Our office are gonna switch to work from home, bt they're willing to pay for a coworking hot desk for anyone who wants it anywhere in the country.

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

But also presumably it will allow interviews to interview alot more potential employees also..... double edged sword.

It allows you to explore more employers and more opportunitires

manniot2 wrote:

I am sure the coffee shops, lunch spots ,pubs etc must seriously be worried about their prospects with all these people going to WFH home in future. I guess those located in the subarbs may benefit, but the net impact on the economy will not be good.

awec wrote:

The WFH thing sounds good but people need to be careful what they wish for. Having people travel into town and city centres props up an awful lot of the economy.

Those City centres were bustling with tourists and some had said coffee shop were too menial for us ie Beweleys

Having long commutes is extremely wasteful, taking this away or reducing it allows people more time to visit their local coffee shop/pub more often, thereby increasing and spreading wealth where it may be far more viable to run a business

Kilboor wrote:

The solution is a balance, freedom to work from home a certain number of days a month/week.

100% and thus far employers and employees seem to be willing to find that happy medium

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

It allows you to explore more employers and more opportunitires






Those City centres were bustling with tourists and some had said coffee shop were too menial for us ie Beweleys

Having long commutes is extremely wasteful, taking this away or reducing it allows people more time to visit their local coffee shop/pub more often, thereby increasing and spreading wealth where it may be far more viable to run a business




100% and thus far employers and employees seem to be willing to find that happy medium

You think people are going to leave their homes in the middle of the day to go to the pub / coffee shop?

It is far more likely that people just stay at home, and visit these places much less frequently than they would were they in the office.

Widespread remote working will see a massive reduction in consumer spending in cafes, pubs, restaurants and shops. I think the idea that it'll continue, but just spread out around the place instead, is flawed logic.

On the other hand, it'll likely see a good boost in revenue for online retailers as this is where the money people save by not commuting or buying lunch and coffee out will be spent. But online retailers employ a lot less staff than physical shops.

TheSheriff

awec wrote: »

You think people are going to leave their homes in the middle of the day to go to the pub / coffee shop?

It is far more likely that people just stay at home, and visit these places much less frequently than they would were they in the office.

Widespread remote working will see a massive reduction in consumer spending in cafes, pubs, restaurants and shops. I think the idea that it'll continue, but just spread out around the place instead, is flawed logic.

This has been our experience; I would have always gotten a coffee at lunch time when in the office.

We now live above a coffee shop, its been doing take away since fairly early on in lockdown.

I haven't gone down once, I walk past it every day when going for a walk. No interest when I am so close to home.

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

Dublin City Council appear to have negotiated a price of 5.88 million for 10 one and two bed luxury apartments in D4 for social housing

Its probably off topic, but this causes me issues.

It also is probably manipulating the market.

Villa05

awec wrote:

You think people are going to leave their homes in the middle of the day to go to the pub / coffee shop?

I'm being a bit anecdotal here, but where people save in one segment, they may spend in another.

Go for a dinner and a night out in their own locality as opposed to coffee and food 5 days a week while at work.

Does that seem possible to you?

Villa05

awec wrote:

Who on earth told you this nonsense?

awec wrote:

Widespread remote working will be one of the largest factors in driving wages downward, the same as how cost of living is one of the largest factors in driving them upward. If you believe that any savings resulting from reduced capital expenditure by businesses is going to used to prop up wages then I have some snake oil here I'd like to sell you.

@ awec are ye experiencing issues today, I've made 2 attempts to respond to this post, but neither has been posted

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm being a bit anecdotal here, but where people save in one segment, they may spend in another.

Go for a dinner and a night out in their own locality as opposed to coffee and food 5 days a week while at work.

Does that seem possible to you?

I think very few people operate in that way.
i.e. Oh look, Im saving €50/week in sandwiches & coffee, I think I'll spend that on something else instead.

In my experience its more likely that most if not all of that money is saved. (at least some of it will be offset by grocery shopping to replace the food/drinks)

Taylor365

GreeBo wrote: »

I think very few people operate in that way.
i.e. Oh look, Im saving €50/week in sandwiches & coffee, I think I'll spend that on something else instead.

In my experience its more likely that most if not all of that money is saved. (at least some of it will be offset by grocery shopping to replace the food/drinks)

I don't think so.

I've always saved, so WFH hasn't changed a thing for me.

Walked 3.5km to work and 3.5km back. Made my own lunches. Probably save an extra 50 a month with WFH.

People who aren't used to saving don't form the habit overnight. That money will be spent as soon as they can.

Look at the cues ffs!

cruizer101

GreeBo wrote: »

I think very few people operate in that way.
i.e. Oh look, Im saving €50/week in sandwiches & coffee, I think I'll spend that on something else instead.

In my experience its more likely that most if not all of that money is saved. (at least some of it will be offset by grocery shopping to replace the food/drinks)

I think it does happen, maybe not in a very direct fashion but if people have extra they will spend more.

It may be that they put it aside to spend on house refurbishments or get a better car, the money will recirculate, the question is where. A lot of it may go online and end up out of the country instead of local businesses which isn't good.

Villa05

awec wrote:

On the other hand, it'll likely see a good boost in revenue for online retailers as this is where the money people save by not commuting or buying lunch and coffee out will be spent. But online retailers employ a lot less staff than physical shops.

Change brings opportunity, Irish retail failed for the most part to embrace that change when the Internet offered a another outlet to get their products to market. Of course its not too late but its always that bit more difficult if you are unwilling to embrace change.

We should not make the same mistake with WFH. Many of our towns and villages have spare capacity and the infrastructure to handle an increasing population. It would be much easier and cheaper to fill schools where population has declined than build new schools in cities with.some of the most expensive land in the country

TheSheriff

Was watching this the last view days to see what offers would come in at as an idea for the area as we really like around there.

Was thinking it would go under, straight in at 35k over.

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/10-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-da26

c.p.w.g.w

TheSheriff wrote: »

Was watching this the last view days to see what offers would come in at as an idea for the area as we really like around there.

Was thinking it would go under, straight in at 35k over.

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/10-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-da26

Somebody really wants that house

brisan

TheSheriff wrote: »

Was watching this the last view days to see what offers would come in at as an idea for the area as we really like around there.

Was thinking it would go under, straight in at 35k over.

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/10-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-da26

either a ghost bid or Auctioneera grossly undervalued the property