Property Market 2020

hmmm

Everything depends on when a vaccine appears. If we have a best case and some limited supply starts appearing towards the end of this year with it likely to be available for all in 2021, I expect a demand surge and choked supply. If a vaccine falters, and this economic calamity looks like continuing longer term, all bets are off. The first vaccines are due to report phase 3 indicators around the end of August - that's when we will know.

I suspect the supply issues will be in 18 months to 2 years. Builders might be completing builds, but they aren't planning much in the way of new builds while this uncertainty continues.

Top Dog

SozBbz wrote: »

Some sort of incentive for FTBs to buy 2nd hand homes in need of renovations instead of targeting all incentives at new builds. Lets reinvest in our older stock too.

That's something I'd personally love to see. Not everyone wants to live in a sprawling estate. And the only new builds you'll see in the countryside are private or self builds - in other words won't be for sale once completed.

Markitron

Top Dog wrote: »

That's something I'd personally love to see. Not everyone wants to live in a sprawling estate. And the only new builds you'll see in the countryside are private or self builds - in other words won't be for sale once completed.

Same. As a single applicant I really need the HTB scheme but I really don't want to live in a condensed estate no matter how nice it is.

TheSheriff

hmmm wrote: »

Everything depends on when a vaccine appears. If we have a best case and some limited supply starts appearing towards the end of this year with it likely to be available for all in 2021, I expect a demand surge and choked supply. If a vaccine falters, and this economic calamity looks like continuing longer term, all bets are off. The first vaccines are due to report phase 3 indicators around the end of August - that's when we will know.

I suspect the supply issues will be in 18 months to 2 years. Builders might be completing builds, but they aren't planning much in the way of new builds while this uncertainty continues.

Logical, and I agree.

Expectations are high that a vaccine will be with us year end. I know several companies now have all R&D resources devoted to this (due to the cash-cow its going to be; several billion doses required). Supply chains have already been established and all eyes are on Phase 3 results.

The lack of supply remains the curve ball. If we didn't have the demand levels we had previously, I would fully expect to be knocking 100k off any would be house in Dublin; but without supply, I am not sure if I see this happening.

Hubertj

wassie wrote: »

RTE Reporting that

The number of new mortgage approvals in May was nearly 62% lower than the same month last year. According to the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland, the decrease was not unexpected given the scale of the lockdown and physical restrictions due to Covid-19.

In total 1,879 new mortgages were approved by lenders here in May - a decrease of 14.6% compared to a month earlier.

But compared to May of last year the volume was nearly 62% lower. At €442 million the overall value of the mortgages approved dropped nearly 16% between April and May, and 61% compared to May of 2019.

and further in the Independant

"Our strong message to would-be borrowers, whose income and employment circumstances have not been impacted by the current pandemic, and who meet normal lending criteria, is to actively proceed with their applications," Mr Hayes said.

Move along...nothing to see here...:eek:

I would have thought the mortgage applications/approvals would have been worse than this given what is going on. What would be more insightful is the number of applications vs approvals and % decrease (or increase ðŸ˜)

Padre_Pio

Hubertj wrote: »

I would have thought the mortgage applications/approvals would have been worse than this given what is going on. What would be more insightful is the number of applications vs approvals and % decrease (or increase ðŸ˜)

Maybe, but what bank wants to be seen as tough on mortgage applications?

They probably won't release these figures.

I'm waiting for the PPR update in August before I start making bids.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

I think that point is huge. We were undersupplied already. supply is not going to increase anytime soon. So the only price pressure can be demand dropping. For demand to drop the economy will be in a bad state altogether.

How does the price fair when Demand is greater than supply, but that demand cannot afford current prices and even more so current rents. Does the state have to house people at the highest market rate as appears to be policy

If the state has to bailout everyone, who will be bailing out the state

What the end game here?

Padre_Pio

Villa05 wrote: »

How does the price fair when Demand is greater than supply, but that demand cannot afford current prices and even more so current rents. Does the state have to house people at the highest market rate as appears to be policy

If the state has to bailout everyone, who will be bailing out the state

What the end game here?

Demand is not people who want a house but can't afford one.

19233974

TheSheriff wrote: »

Logical, and I agree.

Expectations are high that a vaccine will be with us year end. I know several companies now have all R&D resources devoted to this (due to the cash-cow its going to be; several billion doses required). Supply chains have already been established and all eyes are on Phase 3 results.

The lack of supply remains the curve ball. If we didn't have the demand levels we had previously, I would fully expect to be knocking 100k off any would be house in Dublin; but without supply, I am not sure if I see this happening.

lets be honest, we wont have a vaccine until around this time next year at absolute best and all going well. Speak to any expert who dosent have a vested interest in the development and they will tell you as much. A vaccine by the end of the year is pie in the sky stuff.

The real test will be how big and how well we manage the 2nd, 3rd waves etc.

TheSheriff

19233974 wrote: »

lets be honest, we wont have a vaccine until around this time next year at absolute best and all going well. Speak to any expert who dosent have a vested interest in the development and they will tell you as much. A vaccine by the end of the year is pie in the sky stuff.

The real test will be how big and how well we manage the 2nd, 3rd waves etc.

Not to derail the thread, but I disagree with you here.

There is serious resources being directed towards the development of this vaccine, as the first out the gate will likely win the market and maintain market share going forward for years to come with contracts with global payers. Accelerated timelines all round, huge pressure on pharma employees to deliver results.

Going by the attitude of the general public, I also think all bets are off if we get positive phase 3 results; if people know a vaccine is coming, it will likely be business as usual, whether its available today or next year.

SozBbz

TheSheriff wrote: »

Not to derail the thread, but I disagree with you here.

There is serious resources being directed towards the development of this vaccine, as the first out the gate will likely win the market and maintain market share going forward for years to come with contracts with global payers. Accelerated timelines all round, huge pressure on pharma employees to deliver results.

Going by the attitude of the general public, I also think all bets are off if we get positive phase 3 results; if people know a vaccine is coming, it will likely be business as usual, whether it available today or next year.

I completely agree - knowing theres an end in sight versus not would be completely transformative.

Once a vaccine has been deemed safe and effective (despite the logistical challenges of actually rolling it out) I think you'll see confidence start to reemerge.

Its the uncertainty of how long Covid will be around, will there be a 2nd/3rd + waves, how will we cope during next winter with flu etc that makes everything feel so risky.

A vaccine would signal an end point, even if it takes time to get to that end point. The resources going into this are unparalleled. I heard Luke O'Neill on PT saying he expected we'd hear news on a vaccine in the next 2/3 months. I can't think what vested interest he has.

The property market, the stock market, the banking system, our economies generally are built on confidence. Covid has undermined our confidence in life as normal and as of now its still out of our control, but a vaccine would change all that.

hmmm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Going by the attitude of the general public, I also think all bets are off if we get positive phase 3 results; if people know a vaccine is coming, it will likely be business as usual, whether its available today or next year.

That's a good point. If we know a vaccine works, and will be with the general public in a few months, things and people's expectations change from that point - not the point a vaccine actually is available. The EU has already pre-purchased the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine and is negotiating for others.

It's going to be fascinating.

SozBbz

Villa05 wrote: »

How does the price fair when Demand is greater than supply, but that demand cannot afford current prices and even more so current rents. Does the state have to house people at the highest market rate as appears to be policy

Is this literally not what our market has looked like for the past 5 years?

TheSheriff

SozBbz wrote: »

I completely agree - knowing theres an end in sight versus not would be completely transformative.

Once a vaccine has been deemed safe and effective (despite the logistical challenges of actually rolling it out) I think you'll see confidence start to reemerge.

Its the uncertainty of how long Covid will be around, will there be a 2nd/3rd + waves, how will we cope during next winter with flu etc that makes everything feel so risky.

A vaccine would signal an end point, even if it takes time to get to that end point. The resources going into this are unparalleled. I heard Luke O'Neill on PT saying he expected we'd hear news on a vaccine in the next 2/3 months. I can't think what vested interest he has.

The property market, the stock market, the banking system, our economies generally are built on confidence. Covid has undermined our confidence in life as normal and as of now its still out of our control, but a vaccine would change all that.

Yes, this is the golden goose of our generation for pharma shareholders. Whichever pharma company gets there first will generate massive profits for many years to come - there is considerable resources being put into this as mentioned.

Not to delve into my worklife too much, but there are already supply chains in place for some of the bigger companies. Money has changed hands, contracts locked in - there is anticipation of positive efficacy outcomes will be there soon. It'll be a big pay day for whomever gets there first.

Europe approved Remdesevir today (Note; not a vaccine), while not news in itself, whats important here is the speed at which this was recommended for approval, it noted in the article submission occurred on the 5th of June, so approx 20 days to approve a drug. As I said, considerable resources....... (Can't post the link but its on the European Medicines Agency website).

A vaccine could be with us sooner than we think, but I would argue that the mere notion of a vaccine being available (with positive clinical outcomes) will have a far greater impact on the property market than physically being immunized.

19233974

TheSheriff wrote: »

Yes, this is the golden goose of our generation for pharma shareholders. Whichever pharma company gets there first will generate massive profits for many years to come - there is considerable resources being put into this as mentioned.

Not to delve into my worklife too much, but there are already supply chains in place for some of the bigger companies. Money has changed hands, contracts locked in - there is anticipation of positive efficacy outcomes will be there soon. It'll be a big pay day for whomever gets there first.

Europe approved Remdesevir today (Note; not a vaccine), while not news in itself, whats important here is the speed at which this was recommended for approval, it noted in the article submission occurred on the 5th of June, so approx 20 days to approve a drug. As I said, considerable resources.......

A vaccine could be with us sooner than we think, but I would argue that the mere notion of a vaccine being available (with positive clinical outcomes) will have a far greater impact on the property market than physically being immunized.

people have being getting remdesvir in the hospital since march through compassionate use prior to gilead carrying out their trial. Its an anti viral drug, along with other anti virals that have been used and a whole different ball game to a new vaccine for a new virus!

Not derailing the thread and i would love a new vaccinne before the end of the year but its highly highly unlikely.

The bigger impact in the short term is subsequent waves and how they are handled as they will have such a major impact on the economy as a whole that its the only thing that i can see effecting house prices in the near future.

We still have a supply issue that wont be going away any time soon mind you

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

..........

A vaccine could be with us sooner than we think, but I would argue that the mere notion of a vaccine being available (with positive clinical outcomes) will have a far greater impact on the property market than physically being immunized.

Could you detail what that impact might be?
I'm baffled as to what you are alluding to, to be honest.

SozBbz

TheSheriff wrote: »

Yes, this is the golden goose of our generation for pharma shareholders. Whichever pharma company gets there first will generate massive profits for many years to come - there is considerable resources being put into this as mentioned.

Not to delve into my worklife too much, but there are already supply chains in place for some of the bigger companies. Money has changed hands, contracts locked in - there is anticipation of positive efficacy outcomes will be there soon. It'll be a big pay day for whomever gets there first.

Europe approved Remdesevir today (Note; not a vaccine), while not news in itself, whats important here is the speed at which this was recommended for approval, it noted in the article submission occurred on the 5th of June, so approx 20 days to approve a drug. As I said, considerable resources....... (Can't post the link but its on the European Medicines Agency website).

A vaccine could be with us sooner than we think, but I would argue that the mere notion of a vaccine being available (with positive clinical outcomes) will have a far greater impact on the property market than physically being immunized.

Completely agree - the moment there is consensus that a vaccine is safe and effective I think everyone will settle down a bit. Once we KNOW its coming, I think people will feel a lot safer. At the moment, we just HOPE its coming.....at some point.

And yes, I'm aware of the prep work thats been put in place between governments and pharma companies to roll this out once available. This won't be like your average vaccine launch. The prize here - normal life - is probably one that governments will pay anything for. The real issue I see will be how to deal with the anti-vaxers!

Smaller breakthroughs like Remdesiver and also Dexamethasone (steroid) which appears to impact the fatality rate by about a third. Anything that makes it easier to treat, reduces the mortality rate, reduces the amount of healthcare resource required per critical case. If we can treat it better and quicker, then its less crippling.

TheSheriff

Augeo wrote: »

Could you detail what that impact might be?
I'm baffled as to what you are alluding to, to be honest.

Market sentiment, as outlined by another poster.

Right now we have no idea how Covid will play out long term, and its undoubtedly impacting the sentiment of consumers who are buying houses (myself included).

If a vaccine were announced tomorrow, it would go along way to alleviate my concerns that the house I buy today will be worth considerably less in the near future.

lalababa

Antidotal ...but been looking at old houses that are a bit past their best, and asking prices seem to have risen a small bit...10-20%. probably down to that rte series...cheap Irish homes🙄

hmmm

Augeo wrote: »

Could you detail what that impact might be?
I'm baffled as to what you are alluding to, to be honest.

A vaccine means the end of social distancing, and a reopening of sectors which are currently closed. It'll take some time before the economy recovers, but I expect we'll probably see massive stimulus being launched by governments & central banks at the same time. You're going to see a huge wave of investment to prepare for a re-opening.

The other issue I can see is that for those who have managed to hang on to a job, they are building up hefty extra deposits as there hasn't been all that much to spend it on.

It's hard to know how things will go, but as we expect the first phase 3 vaccine indicators to arrive probably around end of August at the earliest (that's the date I heard in a interview with the lead Oxford scientist), if I was an FTB I'd make sure I have everything lined up by that date so I'm in a position to potentially make an offer. Not saying that's the right time to buy, but you don't want to be faffing around collecting documentation if the market suddenly takes a turn.

SozBbz

TheSheriff wrote: »

Market sentiment, as outlined by another poster.

Right now we have no idea how Covid will play out long term, and its undoubtedly impacting the sentiment of consumers who are buying houses (myself included).

If a vaccine were announced tomorrow, it would go along way to alleviate my concerns that the house I buy today will be worth considerably less in the near future.

Absolutely, sentiment, confidence etc will bring stability.

If I know a vaccine exists, and the roll out will take say 6 months, I know that in 6 months time life will be fairly normal again.

My behaviour changes, I start booking those holidays or making big life decisions (like moving house)which involve spending again. If I own a restaurant or hotel, I can make plans for the future again, instead of being in survival mode. The economy starts to pick up as soon as that news in announced, not when the roll out actually happens.

Right now the not knowing when this will be over is probably doing as much economic harm as the tangible effects of the virus itself.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

I would also be expecting things to get difficult for would be FTBers (myself included!).

I think supply is going to be seriously choked over the coming year as a result of credit being cut off for many; at the same time there are large sectors which are completely unaffected by CV-19 and will likely be able to get access to credit, thereby competing for what stock is available.

TheSheriff wrote: »

Market sentiment, as outlined by another poster.

Right now we have no idea how Covid will play out long term, and its undoubtedly impacting the sentiment of consumers who are buying houses (myself included).

If a vaccine were announced tomorrow, it would go along way to alleviate my concerns that the house I buy today will be worth considerably less in the near future.

So you reckon supply constraints along with large sectors which are completely unaffected by CV-19 will ensure competition for what stock is there yet you are concerned prices will fall considerably in the near future unless there's word of a vaccine?

brisan

wassie wrote: »

RTE Reporting that

The number of new mortgage approvals in May was nearly 62% lower than the same month last year. According to the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland, the decrease was not unexpected given the scale of the lockdown and physical restrictions due to Covid-19.

In total 1,879 new mortgages were approved by lenders here in May - a decrease of 14.6% compared to a month earlier.

But compared to May of last year the volume was nearly 62% lower. At €442 million the overall value of the mortgages approved dropped nearly 16% between April and May, and 61% compared to May of 2019.

and further in the Independant

"Our strong message to would-be borrowers, whose income and employment circumstances have not been impacted by the current pandemic, and who meet normal lending criteria, is to actively proceed with their applications," Mr Hayes said.

Move along...nothing to see here...:eek:

See how the land lies in Dec regarding jobs not being impacted

The_Conductor

The portion of the EU stimulus fund currently earmarked for Ireland is a little under 4 billion- and we've already had one of the more generous schemes to assist both individuals and businesses during the lock-down. Even if there is stimulus- you can be certain individuals are not going to benefit (based purely on the recognition that the Irish, as a people, saved the money that was doled out during the lock-down, rather than spending it. John Fitzgerald (of the ESRI) has already said as much. Any stimulus should be highly targeted and not feature disbursements to individuals in future.

If we have Wave 2 and Wave 3 on the horizon- we're going to be in an entirely different boat than the one we were in for the first wave.........

hmmm

............. I'd fear a vaccine is years away.
There's an element of mushrooms being fed sh1te at play also.

hmmm wrote: »

A vaccine means the end of social distancing, and a reopening of sectors which are currently closed. It'll take some time before the economy recovers, but I expect we'll probably see massive stimulus being launched by governments & central banks at the same time. You're going to see a huge wave of investment to prepare for a re-opening.

The other issue I can see is that for those who have managed to hang on to a job, they are building up hefty extra deposits as there hasn't been all that much to spend it on.

It's hard to know how things will go, but as we expect the first phase 3 vaccine indicators to arrive probably around end of August at the earliest (that's the date I heard in a interview with the lead Oxford scientist), if I was an FTB I'd make sure I have everything lined up by that date so I'm in a position to potentially make an offer. Not saying that's the right time to buy, but you don't want to be faffing around collecting documentation if the market suddenly takes a turn.

brisan

Augeo wrote: »

............. I'd fear a vaccine is years away.

Ah no ,lads reckon it will be here before the end of the year and house prices and rents will keep going up and the economy will get back to normal overnight
Although the owners and investors in INTU might disagree

GreeBo

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Demand is not people who want a house but can't afford one.

the reason they cant afford to is....demand.

Mic 1972

Even without a vaccine the market doesn't seem too bothered with Covid
Yes less sales, less stock bla bla, but prices are still high with absolutely no signs of trend changes

TheSheriff

brisan wrote: »

Ah no ,lads reckon it will be here before the end of the year and house prices and rents will keep going up and the economy will get back to normal overnight
Although the owners and investors in INTU might disagree

I don't think anyone really thinks house prices and rents will keep going up to be fair........ its clear that pre-Covid we were at peak affordability.

Its more a question of how much of a dip will happen, I don't think anyone is denying a dip is inevitable either; the divergent opinions on here are really how much of a dip (small or double digits) and for how long (v-shaped or more prolonged).

Claw Hammer

TheSheriff wrote: »

I don't think anyone really thinks house prices and rents will keep going up to be fair........ its clear that pre-Covid we were at peak affordability.

Rents were falling before Covid. All the build to rents and student blocks and the tightening of the screw on Airbnb had started to have an impact. All covid has done is accelerate the process.