Property Market 2020

Cyrus

Springy Turf wrote: »

While first time buyers might dream of getting a better house for their money, I don't think anyone wants a mega recession.

The strange mindset on this thread are those who seem convinced that everything is fine because house prices are currently still strong - despite the fact that in the past house prices drops have lagged far behind global economic trends.

People aren’t convinced things are fine because of house prices , they will look at their own situation and make that determination.

A pilot is going to think oh house prices haven’t fallen looks like I’m alright jack is he ?

TheSheriff

Springy Turf wrote: »

While first time buyers might dream of getting a better house for their money, I don't think anyone wants a mega recession.

The strange mindset on this thread are those who seem convinced that everything is fine because house prices are currently still strong - despite the fact that in the past house prices drops have lagged far behind global economic trends.

A few posters on here seem to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of a mega recession :rolleyes:

It would be interesting to see the breakdown of the unemployment figures if such a breakdown existed i.e. what is the average income of the person impacted, what sector are they in. I think this information could be used to give some indication of where things will go i.e. if mostly low paid retail/service industry gigs then its more likely to impact lower end properties/apartments. This would likely feed up to higher properties, albeit to a lesser extent.

While a recession is here/coming, it does not appear that it will impact all equally (increased taxes aside). While there are many who have had their AIP pulled, there are also many people who have not and CV-19 has been nothing more than a prolonged lockdown where they have WFH and managed to save more than usual.

Walnut Salad

Cyrus wrote: »

The desire of some people for a deep and damaging and long lasting recession is mind boggling it’s like they crave it or something. It’s a strange mindset.

TheSheriff wrote: »

A few posters on here seem to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of a mega recession

I don't want to insult you but I find these comments very childlike. We are debating in a thread on house prices and need to look at the data points.

The ESRI says the 'Irish economy faces largest recession in history' in a report at the end of May: https://www.esri.ie/news/irish-economy-faces-largest-recession-in-history-as-lockdown-takes-its-toll

On real GDP decline they have 3 predictions;
Benign = 8.6%
Baseline = 12.4%
Severe = 17.1%
Regardless of the scenario, the Irish economy is set to experience the largest annual decline in its history.

The IMF said in June that global growth is projected at –4.9% in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 forecast. The numbers are moving fast....and always in the negative.

There are people on this thread saying house prices will remain unchanged or go up/down a small percentage. Fair enough. Some have even provided their rationale for those projections. However, and this is important, there is a high probability that those people are wrong. Indeed they will more than likely be very wrong. The odds are completely against them historically speaking. I don't think anyone can argue that. Trying to silence people that are on the right side of the probability distribution seems a bit weird to me.

I hope that the ERSI prediction falls into the Benign category. I really do. We have endured enough as a country already. It is already having an effect on people close to me.

For me it's not a question of whether the GDP and house prices fall, it's simply a question of by how much and for how long. The next question is what we and the new government should do to help the recovery.

Good night.

This is anecdotal

I watched 2 friends put houses up for sale in 2007, in Dublin, one was moving down the country hoping to build on a site given to them by family, the other, had to emigrate to Australia.
The 2 houses stayed in the market for over a year.
The ones that moved to Oz, never sold, house in the country, Celtic tiger house.
The other, sold eventually, but already built in the country, so they dropped the price &sold as quick as they could.
Point being, neither saw any issue in 2007, but the market bottomed out quickly!
Personally, I bought in 2009. But the market went further south after I bought.

Point being, nobody thought in 07/08 that things would get as bad as they did. But the recession was hard. The next one will be hard, maybe harder.
Things can go south. Property values can go south, but if its somewhere to live...... It really doesn't matter, if you plan in staying there.

Villa05

Some people on here want the froth removed from the property market and a bit of balance restored to avoid a mega recession

LJ12345

A lot also want their own roof above their heads and with a global pandemic and no where else more desirable or accessible to live during this period are not going anywhere. Equally many won’t be selling the houses they’ve worked so hard for at a cut price. Apartments/ ex BTL in need of work are the best bet if you’re looking for a good price.
When we look at the jobs, there will be a shift, supermarkets are flying at the moment and recruiting, companies as mentioned earlier will diversify, it’s in our nature to keep moving forward. A prolonged retraction is not something to be hoped for, but if it happens in Ireland we’ve no overhang of housing stock and no mass exodus facing us...

Villa05 wrote: »

Some people on here want the froth removed from the property market and a bit of balance restored to avoid a mega recession

suave.4u

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

House in Lucan asking €450k currently at €500k bidding. A lot of competition.

The bids on this property:

Bidder 1 €450,000 12 Jun, 2020 - 23:05:50
Bidder 2 €455,000 16 Jun, 2020 - 20:05:08
Bidder 1 €460,000 16 Jun, 2020 - 21:30:34
Bidder 1 €480,000 17 Jun, 2020 - 09:51:58
Bidder 1 €500,000 24 Jun, 2020 - 13:27:03


is there something fishy here? Last bidder put in 20K?

LJ12345

Definitely something off here, bidder 1 seems to be bidding against themselves. Could be a system glitch. Check it again tomorrow but it’s not right as it stands.

suave.4u wrote: »

The bids on this property:

Bidder 1 €450,000 12 Jun, 2020 - 23:05:50
Bidder 2 €455,000 16 Jun, 2020 - 20:05:08
Bidder 1 €460,000 16 Jun, 2020 - 21:30:34
Bidder 1 €480,000 17 Jun, 2020 - 09:51:58
Bidder 1 €500,000 24 Jun, 2020 - 13:27:03


is there something fishy here? Last bidder put in 20K?

MrMusician18

TheSheriff wrote: »

A few posters on here seem to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of a mega recession :rolleyes:

It would be interesting to see the breakdown of the unemployment figures if such a breakdown existed i.e. what is the average income of the person impacted, what sector are they in. I think this information could be used to give some indication of where things will go i.e. if mostly low paid retail/service industry gigs then its more likely to impact lower end properties/apartments. This would likely feed up to higher properties, albeit to a lesser extent.

While a recession is here/coming, it does not appear that it will impact all equally (increased taxes aside). While there are many who have had their AIP pulled, there are also many people who have not and CV-19 has been nothing more than a prolonged lockdown where they have WFH and managed to save more than usual.

Pretty sure it's effecting almost all sectors. At the height of the lockdown something like 75% of workers were either unemployed, receiving the covid payment, were in jobs supported by the wage subsidy scheme or were employed by the state.

brisan

Walnut Salad wrote: »

Is anybody able to point to an example in any modern country where house prices did not decrease significantly during a deep national and global recession?

I think we are past the point of a recession ,a recession at this stage would be a favourable outcome
i cant find the article online but I can quote you a piece by Dan O Brien in yesterdays Independent
"We all need to hope this state of affairs continues because the economic outlook is quite horrifying,something that may not be as widely understood as it could be.
Last week the International Monetary Fund underscored this.
It is now formally predicting that Europe will suffer a depression -defined as a contraction in output of more than 10%
That is a much sharper contraction than during the great recession or the Euro Debt crisis.It is also twice as great a slump as they predicted just eight weeks ago
when the funds forecasters took their first shot at predicting the effects of the pandemic on economies around the world.
The same forecasters also believe the UK and the US will suffer a similarly dire fate this year.
Britain's economy is also expected to contract by a tenth while the US is forecast to suffer shrinkage of 8% "

Throw Brexit in for good measure and see where we come out

I am a homeowner ,all 3 kids have their own home and I stopped flipping houses and renting out properties a few years ago

brisan

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The collapse in tourism and aviation might though.

I have to say I've been extremely surprised at the resilience of the property market so far. I have my eye on the market to move and there seems to be plenty of churn going on with a good few properties that have piqued my interest going sale agreed during the pandemic. I have said that I thought that the market would sharply decline but that hasn't happened, not yet at least.

It may take some time for the damage to the economy to work its way through to the reality of peoples day to day lives - especially as the state weans business off support and the non viable go to the wall.

According to one EA I know its people who have mortgage approval rushing to use it before it runs out in case the rules change and they don't get a renewal of approval
Use it or lose it
However he is an EA so cant really believe him

GDK_11

On a purely speculative basis it’s hard to see prices not dropping 10% or so over the next while, however, I can’t see huge drops that some people are expecting due to the lack of supply.

The WFH will surely increase but again I don’t see everyone moving down the country buying an 8 bed detached house and being given the same pay going forward and the 3.5 salary rule has kept property reasonably priced in the main

Im looking to move house at the moment due to family commitments, the value is similar enough to where I am so I figure I may as well do it, if they drop 10% so does the value of my own house.

Queenio

brisan wrote: »

According to one EA I know its people who have mortgage approval rushing to use it before it runs out in case the rules change and they don't get a renewal of approval
Use it or lose it
However he is an EA so cant really believe him

This is my exact position now. While I'm certain I will get renewal as we are both public sector I want this pushed over the line ASAP if possible bc we simply need to move. I have no interest in sinking another fortune in rent into a black hole with a child on the way. I've two friends in the same position, one who closed her sale last week (with 17% off asking for an extremely high end property bc the originating sale fell through last minute). Interestingly we are offering 4% under asking for a house that sale agreed since January and sale fell through (originally 20k over asking). Vendors having none of it.

Minimal supply and AIP ready to go makes it a tight market atm. Not fun. Lots of viewings at the houses we have seen and offers at and over asking within a few hours of a viewing.

Billythekid19

Queenio wrote: »

This is my exact position now. While I'm certain I will get renewal as we are both public sector I want this pushed over the line ASAP if possible bc we simply need to move. I have no interest in sinking another fortune in rent into a black hole with a child on the way. I've two friends in the same position, one who closed her sale last week (with 17% off asking for an extremely high end property bc the originating sale fell through last minute). Interestingly we are offering 4% under asking for a house that sale agreed since January and sale fell through (originally 20k over asking). Vendors having none of it.

Minimal supply and AIP ready to go makes it a tight market atm. Not fun. Lots of viewings at the houses we have seen and offers at and over asking within a few hours of a viewing.

Anecdotally on this page most properties seem to be going above asking price since covid. This seems to condtradict this morning report that house prices fell by almost 3 per cent to an average price of €268,000 as Covid-19 struck in the second quarter of the year, according to property website, Myhome.ie. Barry O’Halloran examines the latest report.

JimmyVik

bubblypop wrote: »

This is anecdotal

I watched 2 friends put houses up for sale in 2007, in Dublin, one was moving down the country hoping to build on a site given to them by family, the other, had to emigrate to Australia.
The 2 houses stayed in the market for over a year.
The ones that moved to Oz, never sold, house in the country, Celtic tiger house.
The other, sold eventually, but already built in the country, so they dropped the price &sold as quick as they could.
Point being, neither saw any issue in 2007, but the market bottomed out quickly!
Personally, I bought in 2009. But the market went further south after I bought.

Point being, nobody thought in 07/08 that things would get as bad as they did. But the recession was hard. The next one will be hard, maybe harder.
Things can go south. Property values can go south, but if its somewhere to live...... It really doesn't matter, if you plan in staying there.

I watched many friends by houses and apartments to live in in the mid to late 2000s, while I sat on the fence.
Come the 2010s I actually felt sorry for them and was glad I didnt buy when they did.
Come 2020 and I was jealous. They were all living in their houses with half the mortgage paid off already and where was I. Still sitting on the fence.
Lesson is that its a Marathon, not sprint .... There will be ups and downs before the finish line, but if you dont cross the start line, dont expect to ever see a finish line

Mr Hindley

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-introduces-frightening-mortgage-rules-and-halts-lending-to-covid-payment-recipients-1.4290956

Like many prospective buyers on here, I'm seeing the housing market being very buoyant, with properties quickly going for over the asking price. However, the above seems to indicate that while the you-know-what hasn't hit the fan yet, it's on its way...

GocRh

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Pretty sure it's effecting almost all sectors. At the height of the lockdown something like 75% of workers were either unemployed, receiving the covid payment, were in jobs supported by the wage subsidy scheme or were employed by the state.

This. While GDP projections are just projections, we do have hard data on the economic impact - number of people receiving state support either through PUP or payroll.
It's highly unlikely that a shock of this magnitude won't impact properties.
Figures for 30th of May:

'Speaking on RTÉ’s Week in Politics programme, Mr O’Donovan said that out of a labour force of around 2.5 million people, some 1.6 million are either public servants already or receiving some form of payment from the State.

“It is not sustainable going forward that we have 1.6 million people drawing an income support at some level from the State and 900,000 not drawing a support.'

Cyrus

Walnut Salad wrote: »

I don't want to insult you but I find these comments very childlike. We are debating in a thread on house prices and need to look at the data points.

The ESRI says the 'Irish economy faces largest recession in history' in a report at the end of May: https://www.esri.ie/news/irish-economy-faces-largest-recession-in-history-as-lockdown-takes-its-toll

On real GDP decline they have 3 predictions;
Benign = 8.6%
Baseline = 12.4%
Severe = 17.1%
Regardless of the scenario, the Irish economy is set to experience the largest annual decline in its history.

The IMF said in June that global growth is projected at –4.9% in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 forecast. The numbers are moving fast....and always in the negative.

There are people on this thread saying house prices will remain unchanged or go up/down a small percentage. Fair enough. Some have even provided their rationale for those projections. However, and this is important, there is a high probability that those people are wrong. Indeed they will more than likely be very wrong. The odds are completely against them historically speaking. I don't think anyone can argue that. Trying to silence people that are on the right side of the probability distribution seems a bit weird to me.

I hope that the ERSI prediction falls into the Benign category. I really do. We have endured enough as a country already. It is already having an effect on people close to me.

For me it's not a question of whether the GDP and house prices fall, it's simply a question of by how much and for how long. The next question is what we and the new government should do to help the recovery.

Good night.

Try and find where I said house prices won’t drop. I didn’t, they were already stagnating and on the way down where I live , I bought 3 years ago and despite some of my neighbours paying 7 or 8 percent more than me I don’t think if we went to sell that we would get much more than we paid at this end of the market.

This years gdp is of course going to be decline that’s inevitable the country was closed for 3 months.

That’s not my point , it’s the doom mongers that are getting all frothy about a decade long recession you have no idea how bad it will be etc etc

It’s some sort of sick mindset where the misery can’t be miserable enough

Cyrus

GocRh wrote: »

This. While GDP projections are just projections, we do have hard data on the economic impact - number of people receiving state support either through PUP or payroll.
It's highly unlikely that a shock of this magnitude won't impact properties.
Figures for 30th of May:

'Speaking on RTÉ’s Week in Politics programme, Mr O’Donovan said that out of a labour force of around 2.5 million people, some 1.6 million are either public servants already or receiving some form of payment from the State.

“It is not sustainable going forward that we have 1.6 million people drawing an income support at some level from the State and 900,000 not drawing a support.'

So 64 not 75%

What’s the percentage of the work force that’s public servants ?

thomas 123

Cyrus wrote: »

Try and find where I said house prices won’t drop. I didn’t, they were already stagnating and on the way down where I live , I bought 3 years ago and despite some of my neighbours paying 7 or 8 percent more than me I don’t think if we went to sell that we would get much more than we paid at this end of the market.

This years gdp is of course going to be decline that’s inevitable the country was closed for 3 months.

That’s not my point , it’s the doom mongers that are getting all frothy about a decade long recession you have no idea how bad it will be etc etc

It’s some sort of sick mindset where the misery can’t be miserable enough

It’s been pretty miserable for the last 10 years anyway for anyone trying to get on the property ladder and pay rent at the same time. (No brown envelopes from family to top me up either)

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

So 64 not 75%

What’s the percentage of the work force that’s public servants ?

300,000 people employed in the public sector ,so about 12%

Tallback

errlloyd wrote: »

Is there a way to tell if a property on myhome has had its price cut. There was one I was looking at that I think has gone down.

If you put the property address into Twitter search you'll often get the original date/price it went at

Springy Turf

Does that figure include universal supports like Child benefit?

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

Try and find where I said house prices won’t drop. I didn’t, they were already stagnating and on the way down where I live , I bought 3 years ago and despite some of my neighbours paying 7 or 8 percent more than me I don’t think if we went to sell that we would get much more than we paid at this end of the market.

This years gdp is of course going to be decline that’s inevitable the country was closed for 3 months.

That’s not my point , it’s the doom mongers that are getting all frothy about a decade long recession you have no idea how bad it will be etc etc

It’s some sort of sick mindset where the misery can’t be miserable enough

It's about making the best out of a bad situation.sentiment feeds into prices. You talking up house prices while we enter recession is making the worst of a bad situation for would be buyers.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

It's about making the best out of a bad situation.sentiment feeds into prices. You talking up house prices while we enter recession is making the worst of a bad situation for would be buyers.

Me talking up house prices ? Do tell

awec

smurgen wrote: »

It's about making the best out of a bad situation.sentiment feeds into prices. You talking up house prices while we enter recession is making the worst of a bad situation for would be buyers.

I think you're giving the boards.ie property forum way too much credit if you think anything said on here has any impact on anything.

smurgen

smurgen wrote: »

It's about making the best out of a bad situation.sentiment feeds into prices. You talking up house prices while we enter recession is making the worst of a bad situation for would be buyers.

Makes no sense whatsoever.

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

Try and find where I said house prices won’t drop. I didn’t, they were already stagnating and on the way down where I live , I bought 3 years ago and despite some of my neighbours paying 7 or 8 percent more than me I don’t think if we went to sell that we would get much more than we paid at this end of the market.

This years gdp is of course going to be decline that’s inevitable the country was closed for 3 months.

That’s not my point , it’s the doom mongers that are getting all frothy about a decade long recession you have no idea how bad it will be etc etc

It’s some sort of sick mindset where the misery can’t be miserable enough

You are in Ireland. People wish the worst on other people. We are famous for it.

GocRh

Springy Turf wrote: »

Does that figure include universal supports like Child benefit?

No, it only includes those on PUP (~500k), payroll support (~500k) and standard job seekers allowance (~250k).

brisan

Dublin 1 has seen 9 price changes over the last 3 months
2 increases
7 decreases
Overall decrease of
-4%

Dublin 2 has seen 14 price changes over the last 3 months
3 increases
11 decreases
Overall decrease of
-2%

Dublin 3 has seen 37 price changes over the last 3 months
12 increases
25 decreases
Overall decrease of
-1%

Dublin 4 has seen 36 price changes over the last 3 months
16 increases
20 decreases
Overall increase of
1%

Dublin 5 has seen 19 price changes over the last 3 months
3 increases
16 decreases
Overall decrease of
-3%

Dublin 6 has seen 46 price changes over the last 3 months
13 increases
33 decreases
Overall decrease of
-5%

Dublin 6W has seen 31 price changes over the last 3 months
13 increases
18 decreases
Overall decrease of
-1%

Dublin 7 has seen 25 price changes over the last 3 months
3 increases
22 decreases
Overall decrease of
-5%

Dublin 8 has seen 2 price changes over the last 3 months
0 increases
2 decreases
Overall decrease of
-4%


Dublin has seen 662 price changes over the last 3 months
209 increases
453 decreases
Overall decrease of
-2%