Property Market 2020

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

That kind of sums up the Irish property market. Most people only buy to have a place they can call home. We all need one, but the market is rigged so that the wealthy can extract the maximum out of people for this need.

People think they are big gainers if there property rises in price but in truth it's irrelevant because it is your home.
It will even cost you more should you need to upsize and even if you don't its your children that will suffer, having to pay more and more for the same thing. When the price rises to unsustainable levels a crash occurs and these funds move in to mop up the bargains and your children become the next victims of the cycle.
All this is being egged on by home owners who think they are winners because there House has gone up in value
Your not, your a cog in a machine that will be replaced by your children when you have outlived your usefulness

The only true gainers are the super rich in the form of foreign pension funds and vulture funds and land bankers. The very institutions the last Government welcomed in here on a close to tax free basis adding insult to injury




It really is common sense, there is a risk to the economy which at present is difficult to quantify. Banks in such circumstance need to proceed with caution.
A company needs to fulfill certain negative criteria to avail of this help.

Use the time to increase your deposit which may help get a lower interest rate and with reduced mortgages, the likelihood is that the house you will buy will be a little cheaper




You know your in a bubble when people excuse irrational behaviour to obtain a particular asset

The crash may not be too far away

damn pension funds earning money for your pension. How could they.

nerrad01

givyjoe wrote: »

Many im sure will, however many wont and simply issuing a blanket policy having previously been on covid is further exacerbating the negative impact on the economy. You seem to be completely forgetting that the government imposed a lockdown so that many viable businesses simply couldn't get customers through the door, doors are now re-opened and they no longer meet the criteria for qualifying for wage subsidy. There is a requirement now that a letter be provided to state if you were affected, that you are longer affected and there are no changes to your wage or employment status.

How long do you think folks should have to wait after the covid subsidy is over? Until a vaccine, x number of years.. never?

I think you are failing to grasp that there will be a fundamental difference in economic climate and business viability pre and post covid. If there is a 2nd, 3rd, 4th wave etc then a business that was viable pre covid, may no longer be post covid. This wont change unless we get a vacinne, so unsure how you think this wont effect any business that had to avail of wage subsidy. We could be looking at 1 year + of mini lockdowns and ongoing social distancing etc.

Hubertj

People are complaining about the bank being prudent in its lending. How many of these people complained about banks reckless lending ahead of the last recession?

MrMusician18

givyjoe wrote: »

That is completely incorrect, at least up until yesterday it was.

That was what was reported on the radio yesterday.

GreeBo

awec wrote: »

No it pushes those people into the rental market and the social housing list.

Springy Turf wrote: »

Yes, but people who previously would have been leaving the rental market will have to stay.

So I'm hearing that it will increase demand for rental properties, which increases the cost of renting, which increases the yield, which brings more landlords into the market, which increases demand => prices go up.

givyjoe

nerrad01 wrote: »

I think you are failing to grasp that there will be a fundamental difference in economic climate and business viability pre and post covid. If there is a 2nd, 3rd, 4th wave etc then a business that was viable pre covid, may no longer be post covid. This wont change unless we get a vacinne, so unsure how you think this wont effect any business that had to avail of wage subsidy. We could be looking at 1 year + of mini lockdowns and ongoing social distancing etc.

I think you are completely failing to grasp the point that I and others are making. Not every person is in the same situation, nor every business. Not every person or every job is going to be affected and you cannot simply shut down the mortgage market indefinitely.

Are you saying that no one who is/or was should be able to get a mortgage, regardless of their CURRENT circumstances? By the same logic, even folks who haven't been affected at all (yet) shouldn't be able to get a mortgage, in case their employer is affected in the future. And do tell us, where do they live until x amount of time passes? What happens if/when they're forced to move from their rental property?

I personally have significant savings to be able to tide us through 12-18 months of BOTH of us losing our jobs and dont need to buy, but will if the right property comes up. It's a home, not an investment for us and this situation isn't black and white, no matter how many people seem to try and argue that it is.

givyjoe

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That was what was reported on the radio yesterday.

Which radio station and which bank were they referring to? Brian Hayes was on the radio yesterday stating there was no blanket policy, didn't mention anything about 6 months worth of statements post covid payment.

givyjoe

Cyrus wrote: »

so you expect the bank to do a due diligence on the future prospects of each applicants company? a blanket policy is the only workable solution and its a sensible one. its for everyones own good.

A blanket policy, in either direction, is ludicrous. Im specifically talking to people who think that having PREVIOUSLY been on the covid scheme should rule you out in the FUTURE. It makes zero sense.

Cyrus

givyjoe wrote: »

A blanket policy, in either direction, is ludicrous. Im specifically talking to people who think that having PREVIOUSLY been on the covid scheme should rule you out in the FUTURE. It makes zero sense.

depends on how far into the future it is.

Iceman29

Dub4747 wrote: »

I can understand if you're on unemployment benefit but why if your company decided to avail of help from the government but still tops up your wages in full should you be ruled out?

My husband and I own a home and are literally a week away from putting it on the market and have found the home we want to buy as we need to trade up. We talked to AIB (we have our current mortgage with them) and went through all our wages and details but had not finalised our application.

I have worked fulltime from home (more hours than ever before) during lockdown and my salary has remained unchanged. I am not unemployed. I am not on a pay cut. My job is not in danger. My company just used help the government offered so they could afford to keep all staff employed and paid. My husband's job is totally secure and he even got a pay rise during the lockdown. Why should we be ruled out from a mortgage? It's total BS. We bailed these banks out and now they want to screw those of us who are still working and making our full wages???

Hmmmmm

brisan

givyjoe wrote: »

By my own admission? This isn't a court and I said some. Way to completely ignore what was stated to suit your own narrative.

I have no narrative and no skin in the game as I doubt I will ever buy or sell again
As you said not all companies are deadwood but some are and some will go to the wall.
Pubs that are well established and in large areas are already gone
One in Dalkey and the Donaghmede Inn , a pub that is the only pub in walking distance of over 4000 residences
hotel and restaurants have admitted that a lot will struggle,and therefore those that supply and service them will struggle as a result

Padre_Pio

GreeBo wrote: »

So I'm hearing that it will increase demand for rental properties, which increases the cost of renting, which increases the yield, which brings more landlords into the market, which increases demand => prices go up.

People who can't buy are probably already renting, or on HAP.
Rental demand is already down due to COVID. Twice as many rental properties. Airbnb is effectively gone.
Don't know if rents are reduced as a result, but supply is up.

Landlord are leaving the market due to one sided legislation and have been for years.
House prices should be falling. Renters will still get f*cked, as they have been for years.

lir6777

ebayissues wrote: »

No denial, I've skin in the game. Exemption expired , still renting with a disgusting and frustrating housemate, however I still have the peace of mind now than to purchase and lose my job.

This made me laugh out loud as I can totally relate I would definitely feel less panicked to buy if it was more doable to live alone in a rental currently. The prices mean most people end up sharing looooooong after they ideally would- the flatmate market only gets grimmer the older I get I find Yours sounds a total horror, sorry to hear it!

nerrad01

givyjoe wrote: »

I think you are completely failing to grasp the point that I and others are making. Not every person is in the same situation, nor every business. Not every person or every job is going to be affected and you cannot simply shut down the mortgage market indefinitely.

Are you saying that no one who is/or was should be able to get a mortgage, regardless of their CURRENT circumstances? By the same logic, even folks who haven't been affected at all (yet) shouldn't be able to get a mortgage, in case their employer is affected in the future. And do tell us, where do they live until x amount of time passes? What happens if/when they're forced to move from their rental property?

I personally have significant savings to be able to tide us through 12-18 months of BOTH of us losing our jobs and dont need to buy, but will if the right property comes up. It's a home, not an investment for us and this situation isn't black and white, no matter how many people seem to try and argue that it is.

who says the mortgage market is shut down for everyone? I got re-approval in the last 2 weeks. Its a risk assessment that the banks are making, they will still look at your application but if you work in an industry that has had to avail of a wage subsidy to ensure you still have a job, chances are you are not going to get approval. No one is stopping you applying, just chances are due to the complete unpredictability of this situation you pose too much of a risk to banks.

All the other issues are fundamental problems with the market the need to be corrected through government policy, not reckless lending by banks

brisan

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/lenders-stop-issuing-mortgages-to-customers-on-pandemic-unemployment-payment-39324345.html

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

damn pension funds earning money for your pension. How could they.

The pension fund investing here is one for Canadian teachers.
I'm sure they do great work and are fully deserving of their pension, but I'm sure you'll agree that it seems odd that they can come in here and avail of utilities provided by the Irish taxpayers and leave without making any contribution in the form of taxation

Billythekid19

kippy wrote: »

I wouldn't condone the behaviour for everyone in every circumstance but if you've been approved for a mortgage, you've a deposit saved up, and you're planning to live in the house for the long term, it's a safer personal stance to try get the house purchased than hold off and rely on the rental market to look after you for an undefined amount of time, while all the time realising that your chances of getting mortgage approval again in the short to medium term are damn near impossible.
A house is not just an asset. It's not all about profit and loss.

All situations are different, but I can see why people who are approved for mortages are trying to get their houses sorted.

It's all well and good saying what you've said in your post - a review of the property market but an individual has absolutely no control over many of those factors. You either play the game to your own benefit or get outta here altogether.
I'd rather have as much control over my own living arrangements as possible, rather than rely on all of those external factors.

I fully agree that the best time to buy a house is different for everyone. I have a colleague who has purchased a new build detached house in 2019. Although the market will crash by xyz % they have saved 5% of the house value by moving home with their parents for a year and another 5% by claiming the government HTB scheme. So in their scenario if the market drops 10% they are still break even.
You could wait 10 year for the 'crash' to happen but you might not have a job by then .

givyjoe

givyjoe wrote: »

.............You seem to be completely forgetting that the government imposed a lockdown so that many viable businesses simply couldn't get customers through the door, doors are now re-opened and they no longer meet the criteria for qualifying for wage subsidy. There is a requirement now (for drawdown) that a letter be provided to state if you were affected, that you are no longer affected and there are no changes to your wage or employment status.

How long do you think folks should have to wait after the covid subsidy is over? Until a vaccine, x number of years.. never?

I'm not forgetting anything. Am I to write a thesis on Covid19 prior to mentioning my thoughts on AIBs lending policy?

To answer how long, 12 months + IMO, last year's P60 or whatever it's called now along with 3 months of latest payslips Anyone on covid19 support isn't suitable to lend 100s of thousands to IMO.

Iceman29

I cant believe what I'm reading here to be honest. Firstly people in here are effectively condoning people who buy houses/ mortgages knowing full well that their jobs are on the line. How irresponsible is that????

Secondly people complaining that the banks wont loan to certain people....
This is just ridiculous in my opinion. At first i thought these rules brought in by the bank were to prevent another bail out but the more i read in here i can see that its also to protect stupid people from themselves.

There's going to be a whopper recession for some time to come and it's going to affect the whole world. if you think that everything's going to be rosy well i don't know what to say to you other than good luck

The_Brood

Prices rising, here in Dublin at least legions outbidding each other for every livable house. No hope for anyone not very rich to buy property. Things getting worse, not better.

kippy

Villa05 wrote: »

You emphasise my other point on the same post.
The property market is designed to force you to buy even if you know your future outlook might be pointing to negative hit. you have the gun to your head of an extortionate rental market to push into making the decision to buy.

This process maximises the damage caused by a crash and the the super rich can move in and mop up the bargains at the bottom of the market.

This is not an accident or luck or anything like that. This is the way the property market has been designed and its been predominantly done by Irish government policy and inflicted on its citizens

Who votes for government? How many governments have been involved in this?
Who are the "super rich"?
Not suggesting that the housing situation is a mess btw, but they are the cards currently on the table. Waiting for it to become less of a mess has taken the guts of two decades already (and one would argue that for it to be less of a mess we need to go back to 20 percent mortgages, councils being actively involved in both social housing and provision of mortgages and less people working)
ie - define me a time when housing wasn't a mess.

So again, what things have you some control over and what things have you no control over?
People here saying I am daft to suggest that people look out for themselves and take into account their own personal situation as well as the variables that are:
1. Within their control.
2. Out of their control.

Iceman29

The_Brood wrote: »

Prices rising, here in Dublin at least legions outbidding each other for every livable house. No hope for anyone not very rich to buy property. Things getting worse, not better.

nonsense....do you have proof of this? because someone in here just showed proof of the decline in prices in here just yesterday/or day before i believe....

GreeBo

kippy wrote: »

Wait a minute. We pay huge mortgage rates for mortgages because it's almost impossible reclaim the asset for the bank. This is a rule of the game. Why take a personal stance in this?
I wouldn't be condoning buying a house while you are in a precarious financial situation if it wasn't so hard for the banks to take the asset back.
Your own personal stance won't lower rates and while the rules are as they are at the moment I can see why people try their damnedest to buy.

"huge mortgage rates"?

What are you paying and on what scale or in what context is it considered huge?

fliball123

Iceman29 wrote: »

nonsense....do you have proof of this? because someone in here just showed proof of the decline in prices in here just yesterday/or day before i believe....

They were asking prices there does seem to be a lot of bidding wars gong on and prices pushing up, not sure if its the lads who have mortgage approval and want to get it done before credit is gone,

The_Brood

Iceman29 wrote: »

nonsense....do you have proof of this? because someone in here just showed proof of the decline in prices in here just yesterday/or day before i believe....

Prices are listed as one thing online but there is huge outbidding that is driving them up before final sale.

GreeBo

Padre_Pio wrote: »

People who can't buy are probably already renting, or on HAP.
Rental demand is already down due to COVID. Twice as many rental properties. Airbnb is effectively gone.
Don't know if rents are reduced as a result, but supply is up.

Landlord are leaving the market due to one sided legislation and have been for years.
House prices should be falling. Renters will still get f*cked, as they have been for years.

Agreed, but with a growing population that means increasing demand, these people dont just vanish.

Iceman29

The_Brood wrote: »

Prices are listed as one thing online but there is huge outbidding that is driving them up before final sale.

Where are you hearing this? i am hearing the opposite

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

The pension fund investing here is one for Canadian teachers.
I'm sure they do great work and are fully deserving of their pension, but I'm sure you'll agree that it seems odd that they can come in here and avail of utilities provided by the Irish taxpayers and leave without making any contribution in the form of taxation

they dont draft the legislation.

fliball123

Iceman29 wrote: »

Where are you hearing this? i am hearing the opposite

Asking prices seem to be going down on myhome but have you actually been involved in trying to buy I know of 3 people who are currently looking and all 3 have been outbid I know its a small sample set but it cant be a coincidence

Iceman29

fliball123 wrote: »

Asking prices seem to be going down on myhome but have you actually been involved in trying to buy I know of 3 people who are currently looking and all 3 have been outbid I know its a small sample set but it cant be a coincidence

No, i'm not involved but several of my friends have managed to negotiate a cheaper price than the one that's been advertised. Maybe your friend was bidding against themselves through a sneaky EA who managed to drip a few more quid out of them? who knows