Property Market 2020

brisan

brisan wrote: »

Dublin 1 has seen 9 price changes over the last 3 months
2 increases
7 decreases
Overall decrease of
-4%

Dublin 2 has seen 14 price changes over the last 3 months
3 increases
11 decreases
Overall decrease of
-2%

Dublin 3 has seen 37 price changes over the last 3 months
12 increases
25 decreases
Overall decrease of
-1%

Dublin 4 has seen 36 price changes over the last 3 months
16 increases
20 decreases
Overall increase of
1%

Dublin 5 has seen 19 price changes over the last 3 months
3 increases
16 decreases
Overall decrease of
-3%

Dublin 6 has seen 46 price changes over the last 3 months
13 increases
33 decreases
Overall decrease of
-5%

Dublin 6W has seen 31 price changes over the last 3 months
13 increases
18 decreases
Overall decrease of
-1%

Dublin 7 has seen 25 price changes over the last 3 months
3 increases
22 decreases
Overall decrease of
-5%

Dublin 8 has seen 2 price changes over the last 3 months
0 increases
2 decreases
Overall decrease of
-4%


Dublin has seen 662 price changes over the last 3 months
209 increases
453 decreases
Overall decrease of
-2%

Here is Myhome.ie take on Dublin house prices
The PPR will be the telling argument

gourcuff

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/goodbye-commuter-homes-hello-rural-living-swapping-the-city-for-country-living-39265322.html

Sarah Mcinerney's show today talking about a huge spike in interest in property in rural areas, covid might be leading to a mini-flight from the cities/urban areas given working from home will be more common going forward.

larger gardens, home offices are big plus points for new buyers..

Trim and Carlow benefiting apparently

awec

This anecdotal stuff is so pointless. It would be really naive to think that no houses are selling above asking, and it would be naive to think that no houses are selling for under asking. You can't extrapolate the state of the market from a few of your mates, things will vary a lot depending on the area of the market they are in.

Generally, nicer houses in nicer areas will maintain their value for longer, and will attract more interest. Lesser houses in lesser areas will see drops sooner.

You need to wait for the official reports based off the actual sale price to get a proper overview of where things are. Basing it off asking price is just error prone.

fliball123

Iceman29 wrote: »

No, i'm not involved but several of my friends have managed to negotiate a cheaper price than the one that's been advertised. Maybe your friend was bidding against themselves through a sneaky EA who managed to drip a few more quid out of them? who knows

any idea how much they got off just curious to see how much of a cheeky bid people are putting in

brisan

Iceman29 wrote: »

No, i'm not involved but several of my friends have managed to negotiate a cheaper price than the one that's been advertised. Maybe your friend was bidding against themselves through a sneaky EA who managed to drip a few more quid out of them? who knows

Would not be the first time
Happened to us a few times years ago ,it's amazing how often they come back to you when you walk away

kippy

GreeBo wrote: »

"huge mortgage rates"?

What are you paying and on what scale or in what context is it considered huge?

Sorry, I was using the phrase from the other persons post.
I don't believe they are "huge" relative to many years ago, but they tend to be higher than most ( I beleive) EU countries and the logic used for this is the difficulty and cost of the banks in retrieving the proppery should the mortgage holder default on payments.

c.p.w.g.w

Speaking a few people the last day or so...most giving out about the banks imposing/suggesting restrictions on applicants who are/where on Covid19 (WSS)...

All claiming their jobs are safe, business is grand just a little slow...

If your employer has put you on the scheme, it means things aren't all rosey...Also with the inevitable recession coming thing will likely get worse...

These are the same people who give out about the banks giving "too big a mortgage" to most people during the last recession...

You can't have it both ways...in the past the banks were too loose giving mortgages, now their too strict...SWTF

Canyon86

I applied for a LTI exemption earlier in the week,

Luckily my job is secure and i have been working through Covid,
I am a first time buyer

Has anybody experiences with getting an exemption lately?

I was looking at this link https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/mortgage-exemptions-could-dry-up-as-soon-as-april-1.3432517

Billythekid19

Canyon86 wrote: »

I applied for a LTI exemption earlier in the week,

Luckily my job is secure and i have been working through Covid,
I am a first time buyer

Has anybody experiences with getting an exemption lately?

I was looking at this link https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/mortgage-exemptions-could-dry-up-as-soon-as-april-1.3432517

Exemptions wont be available again until January next year, they usually run out in the first 3 months of the year. You might pick up a bargain holding off buying till the recession is in full flow in 2021.

Mr Hindley

fliball123 wrote: »

Asking prices seem to be going down on myhome but have you actually been involved in trying to buy I know of 3 people who are currently looking and all 3 have been outbid I know its a small sample set but it cant be a coincidence

That's my own experience - a number of places I've expressed an interest in, to be told that bids have already gone significantly over asking.

Markitron

Mr Hindley wrote: »

That's my own experience - a number of places I've expressed an interest in, to be told that bids have already gone significantly over asking.

I was under the impression that every EA says this about every property

cnocbui

Iceman29 wrote: »

nonsense....do you have proof of this? because someone in here just showed proof of the decline in prices in here just yesterday/or day before i believe....

You could go read the currently buying/selling thread, in which you will find ample evidence to support what he says.

Fuzzy_Dunlop

MrMusician18 wrote: »

6 months.

Are you sure about this? I haven't seen any confirmation of it from the banks and heard anecdotally that they just needed one standard pay check after coming off the subsidy.

lir6777

Canyon86 wrote: »

I applied for a LTI exemption earlier in the week,

Luckily my job is secure and i have been working through Covid,
I am a first time buyer

Has anybody experiences with getting an exemption lately?

I was looking at this link https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/mortgage-exemptions-could-dry-up-as-soon-as-april-1.3432517

It's not impossible, theres a lot of talk about exemptions being totally off the table for the year but actually some banks do still offer LTI exemptions right now, in my experience (in a similar boat to you) those banks are the harder ones to get an exemption with as a single FTB (they set high net disposable income criteria etc). You probably know all that given that you've applied already. If they let you apply then surely theres a chance right? Good luck with it!

lir6777

Canyon86 wrote: »

I applied for a LTI exemption earlier in the week,

Luckily my job is secure and i have been working through Covid,
I am a first time buyer

Has anybody experiences with getting an exemption lately?

I was looking at this link https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/mortgage-exemptions-could-dry-up-as-soon-as-april-1.3432517

It's not impossible, theres a lot of talk about exemptions being totally off the table for the year but actually some banks do still offer LTI exemptions right now, in my experience (in a similar boat to you) those banks are the harder ones to get an exemption with as a single FTB (they set high net disposable income criteria etc). You probably know all that given that you've applied already. If they let you apply then surely theres a chance right? Good luck with it!

JimmyVik

Iceman29 wrote: »

I cant believe what I'm reading here to be honest. Firstly people in here are effectively condoning people who buy houses/ mortgages knowing full well that their jobs are on the line. How irresponsible is that????

We've been here before.

JimmyVik

The_Brood wrote: »

Prices rising, here in Dublin at least legions outbidding each other for every livable house. No hope for anyone not very rich to buy property. Things getting worse, not better.

I didnt buy even when I could have afforded to in 2007.
I still havent bought since.
I am 40 now and will not get more than a 25 year mortgage even today.
If a recession comes and keeps me out of the market for another 10 years, i'll only ever be buying for cash because I wont get a mortgage at 50 years of age.


I think I sat of the fence for far too long. Im a career fence sitter at this stage

Springy Turf

JimmyVik wrote: »

I didnt buy even when I could have afforded to in 2007.
I still havent bought since.
I am 40 now and will not get more than a 25 year mortgage even today.
If a recession comes and keeps me out of the market for another 10 years, i'll only ever be buying for cash because I wont get a mortgage at 50 years of age.


I think I sat of the fence for far too long. Im a career fence sitter at this stage

Out of interest - why didn't you buy during 2010-2015? Coming from a new fence sitter who doesn't want to overstay on the fence.

guyfawkes5

Canyon86 wrote: »

I applied for a LTI exemption earlier in the week,

Luckily my job is secure and i have been working through Covid,
I am a first time buyer

Has anybody experiences with getting an exemption lately?

I was looking at this link https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/mortgage-exemptions-could-dry-up-as-soon-as-april-1.3432517

I was granted one by EBS in mid to late March of this year.

I also was told by BOI that they weren't entertaining applications for LTI exemptions in May or thereabouts.

It seems that the chances can vary bank to bank.

combat14

down in Waterford today place looks like a ghost town very few places after opening up .. not looking good so far...hope the rest of the country is doing better ...?

hometruths

Iceman29 wrote: »

I cant believe what I'm reading here to be honest. Firstly people in here are effectively condoning people who buy houses/ mortgages knowing full well that their jobs are on the line. How irresponsible is that????

Secondly people complaining that the banks wont loan to certain people....
This is just ridiculous in my opinion. At first i thought these rules brought in by the bank were to prevent another bail out but the more i read in here i can see that its also to protect stupid people from themselves.

There's going to be a whopper recession for some time to come and it's going to affect the whole world. if you think that everything's going to be rosy well i don't know what to say to you other than good luck

You've hit the nail on the head.

Extremely strict blanket lending policies are required here because there are a lot of very stupid people quite prepared to borrow way more than is prudent in order to outbid equally stupid people with equally ill advised borrowings.

If anybody is unable to recognise why the banks are correct in refusing mortgages to people on Covid payment supports, then the chances are high that you are one of these stupid people.

JimmyVik

Springy Turf wrote: »

Out of interest - why didn't you buy during 2010-2015? Coming from a new fence sitter who doesn't want to overstay on the fence.

Because I still thought property prices were going to fall again
Still do.

awec

Springy Turf wrote: »

Out of interest - why didn't you buy during 2010-2015? Coming from a new fence sitter who doesn't want to overstay on the fence.

JimmyVik wrote: »

Because I still thought property prices were going to fall again

It is pretty important to point out that the people who bought around ~2012, and therefore bought at the bottom, had no idea that they were buying at the bottom, it was coincidental and only became clear in retrospect.

You can be sure there were people saying that prices were still crazy, buying a house was nuts, just wait a few more years for all the repossessions to really floor the market etc etc.

Immy

Mr Hindley wrote: »

That's my own experience - a number of places I've expressed an interest in, to be told that bids have already gone significantly over asking.

My experience as well in the south Dublin market

Pulled out on a house last week that had reached over a million, asking was 850. 3 of us bidding.

r93kaey5p2izun

All houses I'm currently looking at in North Kildare are bidding well over asking. Houses mostly asking 350-400k. All going min 30k over and selling fast with lots of bidders. Houses going sale agreed in under two weeks.

MrMusician18

awec wrote: »

It is pretty important to point out that the people who bought around ~2012, and therefore bought at the bottom, had no idea that they were buying at the bottom, it was coincidental and only became clear in retrospect.

You can be sure there were people saying that prices were still crazy, buying a house was nuts, just wait a few more years for all the repossessions to really floor the market etc etc.

In 2013 the country had started to turn the corner and by 2014 the arrow was pointing very much upwards. You may have missed max value but there was good value to be had in those years.

Marius34

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In 2013 the country had started to turn the corner and by 2014 the arrow was pointing very much upwards. You may have missed max value but there was good value to be had in those years.

Someone looking to buy property in Dublin in 2014 Spring/Summer and completing sale 2-3 months later would have paid around 40% more then the ones in 2012, meaning missing bottom by large margin.

MrMusician18

Marius34 wrote: »

Someone looking to buy property in Dublin in 2014 Spring/Summer and completing sale 2-3 months later would have paid around 40% more then the ones in 2012, meaning missing bottom by large margin.

Indeed they would have but they're was no indication at that point that price growth would stall. 40% above bottom isn't the cheapest it could be but it is cheaper than every point after that year.

Holding out in 2014 for the hope of a better price was a poor decision. Holding out on 2019 for a market correction in 2020 was not - all the signs were pointing to the market stalling before Covid was ever a headline.

GreeBo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Indeed they would have but they're was no indication at that point that price growth would stall. 40% above bottom isn't the cheapest it could be but it is cheaper than every point after that year.

Holding out in 2014 for the hope of a better price was a poor decision. Holding out on 2019 for a market correction in 2020 was not - all the signs were pointing to the market stalling before Covid was ever a headline.

I dont think I would every buy a house by timing the market rather than timing when I wanted/needed a house.

Far too many stories of people stuck renting a decade later with bugger all savings to show for it.

Marius34

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Indeed they would have but they're was no indication at that point that price growth would stall. 40% above bottom isn't the cheapest it could be but it is cheaper than every point after that year.

Holding out in 2014 for the hope of a better price was a poor decision. Holding out on 2019 for a market correction in 2020 was not - all the signs were pointing to the market stalling before Covid was ever a headline.

There were no signs of any correction in 2019, the property market was stable not pointing to anything, different believes was pointing to different directions.
There are plenty stock investors that looking at the historical graph and try to predict future (day traders), normally those ones giving up after sometime. Whereas long term value investors, that doesn't try to catch bottom or tops, normally stay investors for a life.