Property Market 2020

Mic 1972

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Overall, do people think the Dublin market is picking up again? With a steady rise throughout the year or is it just Jan/Feb being busy now that Brexit is over and it will slowdown later this year.

it's Jan/Feb catching up on last year slow down

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Mic 1972 wrote: »

it's Jan/Feb catching up on last year slow down

Do you think it will slow down a bit in Q2/Q3. Are you currently looking yourself?

beauf

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Overall, do people think the Dublin market is picking up again? With a steady rise throughout the year or is it just Jan/Feb being busy now that Brexit is over and it will slowdown later this year.

Depends what exact area you are looking. Where I'm looking there is very little new on the market since last year. There are new build houses, but they aren't all sold. All at the high end. No starter homes or smaller/cheaper places.

beauf

TSQ wrote: »

and leave perfectly good homes go to rack and ruin? If the govt can legislate for a derelict site tax, impose rules for landlords in rent pressure zones, etc, no reason why they cant legislate for a derelict homes tax, or better still, for an empty dwelling tax in rent pressure zones. The Housing Together scheme could surely be tweaked to facilitate loans to do up houses for long term social housing (the 10 year lease would be short enough to suit someone going in to care, and their families).

If they were perfectly good homes they wouldn't need work in the first place.
If they haven't been sold then there is a reason for it, legal or otherwise.
In the time you'd have all this sorted you've have built new housing.

Why you'd choose to go the longest more difficult route, perhaps even more expensive to end up with an flawed modernized old house, instead of a new one.

No one wants to be landlord for this type of housing. Not even the govt. They are trying to outsource the responsibility.

https://www.thejournal.ie/how-many-empty-council-houses-are-there-in-your-county-2355049-Sep2015/
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/more-than-3-600-local-authority-homes-vacant-at-end-of-2017-1.3671530

Literally the Govt need to get their houses in order before grabbing someone else's before they are even dead. How much housing did Nama dispose of.

https://www.thejournal.ie/nama-progress-report-4421912-Jan2019/

19233974

i viewed 2 apartments in smithfield on sat, both on at 375k for 2 bed, both small investors selling up. Seems to be a few apts slowly coming onto the market and all the ones ive viewed have been small landlords selling up.

Definitely more supply coming on

Mic 1972

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Do you think it will slow down a bit in Q2/Q3. Are you currently looking yourself?

I've been looking at the market for quite sometime now, the trend was positive until beginning of 2019 then it stabilized with only -0.9% drop in Dublin year on year 2019-2020
Jan/Feb looks like an out of trend spike, it's too early to draw conclusions.
One thing to consider is how the virus will affect flights and people circulation inside Europe for the coming weeks/months. Economy will be impacted too
Italy lost 4% stock value in 1 day. A big portion of rent payers in town are foreigners working for multinational companies
This is going to be a year to watch

19233974

yea ive been thinking about this, we are flying to austria on sat and got a warning from topflight saying check for updates re: travel restrictions. I think we are only starting to see the impact of the coronavirus, when it spreads...and it will who knows what impact it will have on the economies of europe

fliball123

19233974 wrote: »

yea ive been thinking about this, we are flying to austria on sat and got a warning from topflight saying check for updates re: travel restrictions. I think we are only starting to see the impact of the coronavirus, when it spreads...and it will who knows what impact it will have on the economies of europe

I reckon it will go the way or sars it will blow itself out within the next 6 months either that or a treatment will be found

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

I reckon it will go the way or sars it will blow itself out within the next 6 months either that or a treatment will be found

6 months can still have an impact on the property market, i was thinking if we get in any lock down scenario what's going to happen

PommieBast

19233974 wrote: »

both small investors selling up. Seems to be a few apts slowly coming onto the market and all the ones ive viewed have been small landlords selling up.

Same story everywhere. Most other buyers I've met are also people who have been turfed out by landlords..

Assetbacked

Mic 1972 wrote: »

6 months can still have an impact on the property market, i was thinking if we get in any lock down scenario what's going to happen

The vulnerable people to the Corona virus are the elderly, many of whom own their own houses in Ireland. Maybe, in the event of the spread of the Corona virus, their deaths result in more supply of housing?

enricoh

Assetbacked wrote: »

The vulnerable people to the Corona virus are the elderly, many of whom own their own houses in Ireland. Maybe, in the event of the spread of the Corona virus, their deaths result in more supply of housing?

Good jaysus, full of the joys of spring asset backed!!

Sunny Disposition

Have arranged the sale of two properties in Dublin in the last few weeks, was easy enough to get a good price, but wouldn’t be sure it’ll stay that way. Huge profits made in six years, but now is surely a good time to sell, something has to change with housing, can’t stay so expensive long term.
Have a couple of other places away from Dublin, but hanging onto them for the long haul.

Assetbacked

enricoh wrote: »

Good jaysus, full of the joys of spring asset backed!!

My initial thoughts on the link between Corona virus impact to Irish housing!

Assetbacked

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

Have arranged the sale of two properties in Dublin in the last few weeks, was easy enough to get a good price, but wouldn’t be sure it’ll stay that way. Huge profits made in six years, but now is surely a good time to sell, something has to change with housing, can’t stay so expensive long term.
Have a couple of other places away from Dublin, but hanging onto them for the long haul.

David McWilliams talks about this a good bit; the notion that markets, at a certain point, move based on mood rather than calculated data. An example of this is seen with your statement above, that you no longer see the sky as the limit and think that the going has been good for so long that it surely cannot continue. Based on what? The economy and population is still expected to grow, MNCs are continuing to expand, Brexit has had no negative impact on Ireland in the 4 years it has been going on and yet people are starting to get worried for some reason.

ml100

Assetbacked wrote: »

The vulnerable people to the Corona virus are the elderly, many of whom own their own houses in Ireland. Maybe, in the event of the spread of the Corona virus, their deaths result in more supply of housing?

That is some statement, are people that desperate!, the Coronavirus is more likely to reduce demand as the multinational companies tighten their belts.

If things get that bad that we want the state to force our sick and elderly in nursing homes to sell their houses then we may need to look at where some of this demand is coming from, i.e our immigration policy and our social welfare policy, why import workers when we have people that won't work!

beggars_bush

ml100 wrote: »

That is some statement, are people that desperate!, the Coronavirus is more likely to reduce demand as the multinational companies tighten their belts.

If things get that bad that we want the state to force our sick and elderly in nursing homes to sell their houses then we may need to look at where some of this demand is coming from, i.e our immigration policy and our social welfare policy, why import workers when we have people that won't work!

a few multinationals based in Ireland have already put a hold on any foreign travel for workers and also on foreign workers coming in to join their teams here

Mic 1972

beggars_bush wrote: »

a few multinationals based in Ireland have already put a hold on any foreign travel for workers and also on foreign workers coming in to join their teams here

I know of one who put on hold recruitment for Italian workers, company is based in Santry

Mic 1972

"Stockmarkets around the world have dropped significantly today as the threat of the coronavirus caused investors to panic"


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/markets-hub/

Cuddlesworth

Assetbacked wrote: »

David McWilliams talks about this a good bit; the notion that markets, at a certain point, move based on mood rather than calculated data. An example of this is seen with your statement above, that you no longer see the sky as the limit and think that the going has been good for so long that it surely cannot continue. Based on what? The economy and population is still expected to grow, MNCs are continuing to expand, Brexit has had no negative impact on Ireland in the 4 years it has been going on and yet people are starting to get worried for some reason.

Or another way of looking at it, he has made a significant amount of money in 6 years, well above other investment returns. Capitalizing those gains might not be a bad thing.

lcwill

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Or another way of looking at it, he has made a significant amount of money in 6 years, well above other investment returns. Capitalizing those gains might not be a bad thing.

Some of them might just be looking to lock in tax free gains.

An example:

Bought for 100 in 2013, now worth 200k - assume flat house prices for the next few years:.

Sell this year (7+0), capital gains tax = zero
Sell next year, 7 + 1, capitals gains tax = 4k
7 + 2, capital gains tax = 7k
7 + 3, capital gains tax = 10k

Tax owed = (((Current price - purchase price)/ X)* (X-7)) * .33

Where X is years since purchase.

Prices need to keep rising more than 2-3% per year just to keep ahead of your growing tax bill. Just another risk it would be nice to avoid. Numbers are even worse if prices start to drop

Wouldn't be surprised if some landlords are using it as a good moment to get out, but others might be doubling down and reinvesting in other properties, but with capital gains tax liability reset to zero.

Main losers: sitting tenants getting turfed out of the homes so landlords can manage their tax liabilities.

Sunny Disposition

Assetbacked wrote: »

David McWilliams talks about this a good bit; the notion that markets, at a certain point, move based on mood rather than calculated data. An example of this is seen with your statement above, that you no longer see the sky as the limit and think that the going has been good for so long that it surely cannot continue. Based on what? The economy and population is still expected to grow, MNCs are continuing to expand, Brexit has had no negative impact on Ireland in the 4 years it has been going on and yet people are starting to get worried for some reason.

It's a guess of where we are in the cycle coupled with my own lack of appetite for risk, that's all.
I think we are probably fairly close or just past the end of a great spell for property investors, because building has increased and there is a demand to curb the high prices of rent.
These are good things, but also good reasons to get out at this point, especially given I made far more than I was expecting when I got back into it. I'm hanging onto the few I have in Clare, think the ones I still hold here are unlikely to lose value really.

The post you wrote there could have been written in 2007 to someone selling investment properties. I just haven't the appetite for risk, very happy without how I've done out of a few recession time investments, and everyone must know by now that there is risk associated with investing in property.

Other people might be happy to remain landlords with the opportunity and risk associated, good luck to them, it's just not for me in Dublin right now.

coolshannagh28

Assetbacked wrote: »

David McWilliams talks about this a good bit; the notion that markets, at a certain point, move based on mood rather than calculated data. An example of this is seen with your statement above, that you no longer see the sky as the limit and think that the going has been good for so long that it surely cannot continue. Based on what? The economy and population is still expected to grow, MNCs are continuing to expand, Brexit has had no negative impact on Ireland in the 4 years it has been going on and yet people are starting to get worried for some reason.

This happens on a fairly widespread basis , a bit like the Lemmings , sentiment changes and everyone wants out,in the last recession it happened over a couple of months and suddenly there were no buyers only sellers.

quokula

Assetbacked wrote: »

David McWilliams talks about this a good bit; the notion that markets, at a certain point, move based on mood rather than calculated data. An example of this is seen with your statement above, that you no longer see the sky as the limit and think that the going has been good for so long that it surely cannot continue. Based on what? The economy and population is still expected to grow, MNCs are continuing to expand, Brexit has had no negative impact on Ireland in the 4 years it has been going on and yet people are starting to get worried for some reason.

Brexit hasn't been going on for 4 years. Discussions about it have been going on for 4 years, but it hasn't happened yet.

It actually happens at the end of this year, and that will be the first time its effects will be felt, whatever those effects may be.

Mic 1972

...Has anyone paid any attention on what is going on with the global stock market right now?
Link below is a live update, all markets dropped 3 to 4 points

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/markets-hub/

AlmightyCushion

Mic 1972 wrote: »

...Has anyone paid any attention on what is going on with the global stock market right now?
Link below is a live update, all markets dropped 3 to 4 points

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/markets-hub/

It sounds worse than it is. Look at VOO, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500. It's currently at $297.23 and down nearly 3% so far today and I'm pretty sure it was down on Friday as well. It was around this price on January 27th and actually lower on January 31st where it was $295.69. So, it has only lost about a months worth of growth.

Obviously, it could get a lot worse but the current drop isn't as bad as it initially sounds.

Sunny Disposition

On a more local level, do ye think the fundamentals of the property market are sound? I don't, prices went very high because there was very little built for a number of years and the FG government were kinda focused on private sector solutions. There's a pretty big political backlash demanding cheaper housing, would expect that will deliver something within a couple of years, be it a rent freeze or a very increased level of public sector building.

Sleepy

For all those harping on about Sinn Fein in the thread, remember that for all their shouty rhetoric and despite their 24.5% of the popular vote, they still only have 23% of the seats. That means for every person who voted for them, three didn't and with the two other large parties refusing to have anything to do with them, they're just going to be a slightly louder opposition party than they were last time around. They haven't been "voted in" and you can be sure they'll continue to be ignored by the other parties.

lastusername

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

On a more local level, do ye think the fundamentals of the property market are sound? I don't, prices went very high because there was very little built for a number of years and the FG government were kinda focused on private sector solutions. There's a pretty big political backlash demanding cheaper housing, would expect that will deliver something within a couple of years, be it a rent freeze or a very increased level of public sector building.

Seems to me that residential properties in the low-medium end of the market (the bulk of them) will fall slightly in price over the next 3-5 years. Higher-priced houses will probably hold their value overall.

JamesMason

Assetbacked wrote: »

The vulnerable people to the Corona virus are the elderly, many of whom own their own houses in Ireland. Maybe, in the event of the spread of the Corona virus, their deaths result in more supply of housing?

Charming