Property Market 2020

Assetbacked

IRES shares down 6.24% since opening today, sitting at what would appear to be their lowest level in the last year;

https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/IE00BJ34P519-XMSM

odyssey06

SozBbz wrote: »

As for all this talk about another massive recession, even if that happens (i'm not convinced its imminent or going to be massive) but still, would you rather be renting or living with your mammy when that happens, unable to get finance for years because the banks no longer lend.

In general yes.

But there are nuances e.g. for people thinking of trading up \ trading down, people thinking of buying apartment now with view to trading up in a few years, people in a 'safe' job might want to hold off with a view to drop off in prices.
Not everyone watching the property market is a renter looking for FTB.

Mic 1972

The_Conductor wrote: »

True.
It seems to be a lot more virulent that SARS was- even if the fatality level is a lot lower (roughly 3%). One way or the other- looks like its a matter of when, not if, before we have an Irish outbreak- and given the midterm shenanigans- it's likely in the next day or so here...……

The fatality rate is currently between 7% and 8%, trending down (Source: wordlometer)
If it wasn't that high we probably wouldn't have governments taking such extreme measures. Things like this can be very disruptive of the economic.
China is only starting now to have it under control, but the impact on its economy will last longer than the virus. Once this starts to make waves in Europe we can't expect things to function like nothing is happening unfortunately

The_Conductor

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The fatality rate is currently between 7% and 8%, trending down (Source: wordlometer)
If it wasn't that high we probably wouldn't have governments taking such extreme measures. Things like this can be very disruptive of the economic.
China is only starting now to have it under control, but the impact on its economy will last longer than the virus. Once this starts to make waves in Europe we can't expect things to function like nothing is happening unfortunately

According to CIDRAP the mortality rate among the first 72k notified sufferers of Covid/Corona Virus was 2.3% however, this hid a multitude of issues- including a 49% mortality rate in some demographics (OAPs with diabetes for example).

Source here: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

The bigger issue is how communicable it is- with an Ro of > 2.2 (that is everyone infected with Covid is infecting on average 2.2 other people)

So- its far less deadly than the likes of SARS- but far far more infectious.

Mic 1972

The_Conductor wrote: »

According to CIDRAP the mortality rate among the first 72k notified sufferers of Covid/Corona Virus was 2.3% however, this hid a multitude of issues- including a 49% mortality rate in some demographics (OAPs with diabetes for example).

Source here: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate
The bigger issue is how communicable it is- with an Ro of > 2.2 (that is everyone infected with Covid is infecting on average 2.2 other people)
So- its far less deadly than the likes of SARS- but far far more infectious.

That figure 2.3% includes unresolved cases, which accounts for the vast majority of the total 80k infected today. It's a skewed figure.
If you only look at cases with an outcome you get 7.8%, this figure has been trending down from the beginning, bit it's still pretty high for a such a highly infectious virus

The_Conductor

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That figure 2.3% includes unresolved cases, which accounts for the vast majority of the total 80k infected today. It's a skewed figure.
If you only look at cases with an outcome you get 7.8%, this figure has been trending down from the beginning, bit it's still pretty high for a such a highly infectious virus

Its discussions like this that remind me of why I'm getting 'Plague Inc' as a recommended download on my mobile!

Yes, its a high fatality rate- but the scary thing in comparison with SARS- is how damn infectious this seems to be. This seems to be exceptionally communicable.

pearcider

SozBbz wrote: »

No, thankfully I'm perfectly healthy. But I don't need to to know they're struggling.

But tell me, what does it have to do with property prices? Are you suggesting a significant portion of the population will die ala a proper good old fashioned plague? This is what I mean by hysterical.

If this was a thread about retail or hospitality industries, then yes I'd agree its going to be a massive factor. But its a thread about the Irish property market, and this virus will run its course and people will still want to buy a place to live.

As for all this talk about another massive recession, even if that happens (i'm not convinced its imminent or going to be massive) but still, would you rather be renting or living with your mammy when that happens, unable to get finance for years because the banks no longer lend.

Sure we basically don't reposes PPRs in this country, you're much better off in your own home.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/27/coronavirus-could-trigger-damage-on-scale-of-2008-financial-crisis-covid-19

But don’t worry Irish property prices won’t be affected. Thankfully, they exist in an economic vacuum.

Assetbacked

Assetbacked wrote: »

IRES shares down 6.24% since opening today, sitting at what would appear to be their lowest level in the last year;

https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/IE00BJ34P519-XMSM

Now 10.19% down today.

OwlsZat

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Sextant-skyscraper-in-Cork-gets-go-ahead-521c2336-74a4-4488-878c-318fed9b1dcb-ds

Another build to rent tower get's the green light, this time in Cork. Wonder is there an infiinite amount of oversea's buyers for these developments. I guess it's a byproduct of the tastly returns.

The_Conductor

OwlsZat wrote: »

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Sextant-skyscraper-in-Cork-gets-go-ahead-521c2336-74a4-4488-878c-318fed9b1dcb-ds

Another build to rent tower get's the green light, this time in Cork. Wonder is there an infiinite amount of oversea's buyers for these developments. I guess it's a byproduct of the tastly returns.

if you consider how in Dublin they're happier to keep the units vacant than to lower the rental price- you really have to wonder what their business model is...…….

If its all to do with book value and banking covenants- then steps must be taken by the authorities to properly penalise vacant units.

pearcider

The_Conductor wrote: »

if you consider how in Dublin they're happier to keep the units vacant than to lower the rental price- you really have to wonder what their business model is...…….

If its all to do with book value and banking covenants- then steps must be taken by the authorities to properly penalise vacant units.

They can do this because these constructions are built at extremely low interest rates so the cost of capital is tiny. Once interest rates rise they will be forced to liquidate these assets.

The_Conductor

pearcider wrote: »

They can do this because these constructions are built at extremely low interest rates so the cost of capital is tiny. Once interest rates rise they will be forced to liquidate these assets.

However, until there is a cost associated with keeping them empty- there is no impetus on them to actually let them- at any cost.

Its bonkers- and entirely counter intuitive.

Its almost like they have deliberately set the rent at 4k per month- specifically so no-one will rent them...…...

The_Conductor

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of buying an apartment for 5 years or so ( but with 50pc loan to value for approx 300k). Potentially renting the other room too so mortgage is paid before selling to buy a house.

Any thoughts welcome? Not trying to flip it but can't see value dropping more than 10pc in the coming years...

Its impossible to suggest whether, or not, the list price of the unit might fall by more than 10% over the next few years...…..

The big thing going for your proposal- is getting someone in to one of the rooms so you can use the rent-a-room relief, all the while you're saving towards your next property (or indeed, further accelerated paying down the mortgage on this one).

In general- its a bad idea to buy property unless you can see yourself staying there long term- people don't 'flip' property anymore- its far too risky.

Your plan has few risks though- other than you ending up there longterm (possibly unable to sell for one reason or another)- providing it is somewhere that you could see yourself in longer term (longer term than 4-5 years that is)- I'd say your idea has merit.

Mic 1972

The_Conductor wrote: »

In general- its a bad idea to buy property unless you can see yourself staying there long term- people don't 'flip' property anymore- its far too risky.

Agree with that statement very much, but it's difficult to know where you want to live long term. Jobs change and move all the time, single people start families. I bought a 3 bed semiD six years ago, saved a significant amount of money with rent-a-room and now i'd love to sell and buy a 1bed. I would never ever buy a 3 bed house with garden again. At the time it was all I wanted

ZX7R

In the process of selling my house,
Buyer was onto there mortgage lender.
On the extreme chance of lock down or other related issues, there provider say extensions will be given to time to draw down ECT

SozBbz

ZX7R wrote: »

In the process of selling my house,
Buyer was onto there mortgage lender.
On the extreme chance of lock down or other related issues, there provider say extensions will be given to time to draw down ECT

This is exactly why I don't think Covid19 will massivly effect our housing market.

the sales cycle for property is long anyway.

Its not going to be impacted the way that fashion retailers, hotels, restaurants etc.

If I decide not to holiday this year, I'll probably just consider it missed, and resume my normal amount of holidays next year. I won't defer the holiday, its just going to be cancelled.

As a result of not going away, I might decide not to buy more summer clothing. I'm not going to buy it later in the year or double my purchases next year, its just going to not happen.

I eat out once or twice a week normally, if I end up skipping some weeks due to isolation or whatever, I'm not going to start eating out 3 or 4 times a week once its over to make up for lost time, I'll go back to normal.

So yes, there will be real losses to the above industries, because they can't get those opportunities back, because they're depending on people consistently spending, and anything which impacts that consumer consistency will hurt. Buying a home is not like that, many people only do it once in a lifetime, and won't be put off indefinitely by a few months in 2020.

Conversely, if I wanted to buy a house, the virus might slow things down in terms of viewings etc, but the sale will still happen, albeit slightly delayed. If I need a house, I'll buy a house irrespective of delays.

I know this will hurt some industries but this virus like all viruses will run its course. If it appears again next year we will have a vaccine. Some businesses that are close to the edge might not make it, but those who are robust will recognise this is a temporary phenomenon to be outlasted and overcome.

JamesMason

Assetbacked wrote: »

Now 10.19% down today.

Ouch

JamesMason

pearcider wrote: »

They can do this because these constructions are built at extremely low interest rates so the cost of capital is tiny. Once interest rates rise they will be forced to liquidate these assets.

That could happen sooner than you think

Mic 1972

All the above activities are linked to one single economy, if a few of them get affected by the current uncertainty or worse by an actual temporary lock down - restaurants, pubs, hotels - there will be less money circulating around, slower sales, less investors, less potential buyers. Even if only temporarily there may be window for potential property market deflation

SozBbz

Mic 1972 wrote: »

All the above activities are linked to one single economy, if a few of them get affected by the current uncertainty or worse by an actual temporary lock down - restaurants, pubs, hotels - there will be less money circulating around, slower sales, less investors, less potential buyers. Even if only temporarily there may be window for potential property market deflation

I think it would have to be something systemic of fundamental for it to reach property in a meaningful way. I agree, there will be pain over the coming weeks and months but people will get past it.

I don't recall our property market being impacted by SARS or Foot&Mouth, but both did have a short term impact on the real economy.

OwlsZat

The_Conductor wrote: »

if you consider how in Dublin they're happier to keep the units vacant than to lower the rental price- you really have to wonder what their business model is...…….

If its all to do with book value and banking covenants- then steps must be taken by the authorities to properly penalise vacant units.

Invest with a high yield. Pay no tax. Fairly obvious what needs to change.

Reversal

I heard on Newstalk this evening that investors in the UK are now short selling shares in Cairn homes, as they see a slump in property prices coming in Ireland. I'm sure this isn't guesswork.

At the same time Irish banks taking a hammering in the markets due to Covid-19. While covid might not have a primary effect on the housing market, I think it is foolish to think a slowing economy won't filter to the market.

The_Conductor

Reversal wrote: »

I heard on Newstalk this evening that investors in the UK are now short selling shares in Cairn homes, as they see a slump in property prices coming in Ireland. I'm sure this isn't guesswork.

At the same time Irish banks taking a hammering in the markets due to Covid-19. While covid might not have a primary effect on the housing market, I think it is foolish to think a slowing economy won't filter to the market.

Show me a share- any share at all- that isn't getting shorted this week in the UK......... The FTSE100 is down another 3.5% today- nearly 14% this week so far.

Its hard to discern hard data on any particular sector, when the static around all stocks is so toxic.

FutureGuy

As someone buying a house right now, this is great fun.

awec

FutureGuy wrote: »

As someone buying a house right now, this is great fun.

Unless you're buying the house with a view to making a profit in the short term I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it.

You need somewhere to live at the end of the day.

TheSheriff

FutureGuy wrote: »

As someone buying a house right now, this is great fun.

Can echo this!! Hard to know which way things will go....

Taylor365

awec wrote: »

Unless you're buying the house with a view to making a profit in the short term I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it.

You need somewhere to live at the end of the day.

Somewhere to lay the head at a reasonable price not in Offaly or Baghdad would suit just fine.



Profits? :pac::pac::pac::pac:

Mic 1972

SozBbz wrote: »

I think it would have to be something systemic of fundamental for it to reach property in a meaningful way. I agree, there will be pain over the coming weeks and months but people will get past it.

I don't recall our property market being impacted by SARS or Foot&Mouth, but both did have a short term impact on the real economy.

SARS, MERS and F&M didn't generate the same level of irrational fear here in Europe. The next few weeks will be interesting to watch although the property market moves slowly and doesnt normally have sudden fluctuations. Anything that happens now, in case of global economy impact, it will affect the property market further down the line, not now

christin

The drop in the US stock market S&P 500 this week is the first time it's crashed more than 3% in back-to-back sessions since the financial crisis in 2008. And that is before the virus has spread widely across the USA. The effect of the virus will slow down global economic growth in 2020, according to leading banks and economists. So this global backdrop will inevitably be a negative pressure for the Irish economy which could well push house prices lower.

riclad

We are in a global economy,.factorys and business,s are closing down
in china .Every day theres reports of new countrys having people who have the virus .many pc,s laptops and parts for cars are made in china ,
this virus will slow the global economy ,
Theres so many things that have cpu,s , ram , motherboards made in china .Its a global supply chain.
Imagine if we have 50 case,s of the virus.It will effect the tourism industry .so many shops and cafes rely on tourists to make money.
See what happens every year, in the winter, we see old people with the flu left on trollys .our medical service is stretched to the limit.We do not have enough single rooms in hospitals for people to be put in isolation .Our medical system is not ready to deal with a few 100 people who ahve a very contagious virus .
If you think that our economy could not be effected by a global pandemic
than you must be very optimistic.