Property Market 2020

landofthetree

nerrad01 wrote: »

This is going to make the recession look like a walk in the park, the US inventing 1.5 trillon to pump into the economy, more quantative easing by the ECB and it hasnt even kicked off yet in the US or Europe.

Scary times ahead

This is why people need 6 months of savings to cover mortgages and bills in such a crisis.

Unfortunately many wont have it.

Mic 1972

JJJackal wrote: »

Supply will stop - where do you think the Government will get the money for this?

Demand will stop too

OttoPilot

begbysback wrote: »

Is that a typo? Investing or inventing?

Is there a difference at this point? The money is created out of thin air

OttoPilot

stinger31 wrote: »

Prices will plummet for the foreseeable future. Demand will disappear due to
1)The amount of jobs that will be lost over this.
2)The amount of self employed people who will need massive loans to try stay going and in turn not be profitable for x amount of time and in turn not qualify to get a mortgage etc.
3)The lucky people to still have a job at the end of this will probably have to take a huge pay cut and with the 3.5 times rules it'll be extremely difficult
4)banks wont be loaning
5)more supply will be coming on the market as i would hope the Gov have learnt from the last time
6) People who aren't from here might go home as they cant afford to live here anymore and cheaper to live at home

Dont forget also the amount of people who moved from the country up to dublin for work. If work disappears, many may return to parents houses down the country.

awec

landofthetree wrote: »

What a joke of a country we are.

People wilth rdiculous mortages and rents facing into what could be a terrible recession.

The tragic part of it all of this is it disnt need to be like this.

Will we ever learn?

What does this post even mean?

awec

There are a lot more twists and turns to come in this saga, the doomsday stuff is a bit premature. And we're soon going to have to introduce a swear-jar concept every time someone posts that stupid investment cycle graph picture.

The market is all over the place. Up and down, up and down. My own stocks went down like 10% on Thursday, but came back up 15% yesterday. In the coming days and weeks I'm sure there'll be more drops, and more gains, there's no sense going all hysterical every time there's a drop right now.

In terms of bigger picture, was reading in the IT today that they reckon Ireland can afford a shutdown for the quarter, until June/July, and so long as we have got to grips with the worst of it by then the economy won't contract this year. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong, it's an interesting counter-point to the some of the stuff you read on here.

Still believe that those who think they'll be buying houses any time soon for significantly lower prices than they are right now are going to be sorely disappointed. If those who believe the place is about to implode are correct, then supply of new homes is going to drop to somewhere around zero. You can almost certainly completely forget about any idea of affordable housing from the government.

landofthetree

awec wrote: »

What does this post even mean?

It was government policy to get house prices to rise. They also messed up the rental market.

1. They openly said they wanted prices to rise.
https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/michael-noonan-wants-house-prices-to-rise-further-30192456.html

2. The government encouraged land speculation.


We are the least densely populated country in Western Europe. We could have cheap housing and low rents but our governments wouldnt have it.

Now with a recession coming we will be hit really hard because our housing costs are insane.

awec

landofthetree wrote: »

It was government policy to get house prices to rise. They also messed up the rental market.

1. They openly said they wanted prices to rise.
https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/michael-noonan-wants-house-prices-to-rise-further-30192456.html

2. The government encouraged land speculation.


We are the less densely populated country in Western Europe. We could have cheap housing and low rents but our governments wouldnt have it.

Now with a recession coming we will be hit really hard because our hosuing costs are insane.

How do you propose government stop house prices rising?

landofthetree

awec wrote: »

There are a lot more twists and turns to come in this saga, the doomsday stuff is a bit premature. And we're soon going to have to introduce a swear-jar concept every time someone posts that stupid investment cycle graph picture.

The market is all over the place. Up and down, up and down. My own stocks went down like 10% on Thursday, but came back up 15% yesterday. In the coming days and weeks I'm sure there'll be more drops, and more gains, there's no sense going all hysterical every time there's a drop right now.

In terms of bigger picture, was reading in the IT today that they reckon Ireland can afford a shutdown for the quarter, until June/July, and so long as we have got to grips with the worst of it by then the economy won't contract this year. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong, it's an interesting counter-point to the some of the stuff you read on here.

Still believe that those who think they'll be buying houses any time soon for significantly lower prices than they are right now are going to be sorely disappointed. If those who believe the place is about to implode are correct, then supply of new homes is going to drop to somewhere around zero. You can almost certainly completely forget about any idea of affordable housing from the government.

The IT get a lot of revenue from property advertising. They aren't anyway independent.

awec

landofthetree wrote: »

The IT get a lot of revenue from property advertising. They aren't anyway independent.

Nobody is independent.

This quote was from one of those economic think tank / quango things, I can't remember which one.

stinger31

awec wrote: »

There are a lot more twists and turns to come in this saga, the doomsday stuff is a bit premature. And we're soon going to have to introduce a swear-jar concept every time someone posts that stupid investment cycle graph picture.

The market is all over the place. Up and down, up and down. My own stocks went down like 10% on Thursday, but came back up 15% yesterday. In the coming days and weeks I'm sure there'll be more drops, and more gains, there's no sense going all hysterical every time there's a drop right now.

In terms of bigger picture, was reading in the IT today that they reckon Ireland can afford a shutdown for the quarter, until June/July, and so long as we have got to grips with the worst of it by then the economy won't contract this year. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong, it's an interesting counter-point to the some of the stuff you read on here.

Still believe that those who think they'll be buying houses any time soon for significantly lower prices than they are right now are going to be sorely disappointed. If those who believe the place is about to implode are correct, then supply of new homes is going to drop to somewhere around zero. You can almost certainly completely forget about any idea of affordable housing from the government.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I would imagine it's an effort to alleviate fears and nothing else. Honestly can't see how this could be true. I'd love to see this article

Mad_maxx

landofthetree wrote: »

It was government policy to get house prices to rise. They also messed up the rental market.

1. They openly said they wanted prices to rise.
https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/michael-noonan-wants-house-prices-to-rise-further-30192456.html

2. The government encouraged land speculation.


We are the least densely populated country in Western Europe. We could have cheap housing and low rents but our governments wouldnt have it.

Now with a recession coming we will be hit really hard because our housing costs are insane.

Name a capital city as wealthy as Dublin with low house prices?

awec

stinger31 wrote: »

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I would imagine it's an effort to alleviate fears and nothing else. Honestly can't see how this could be true. I'd love to see this article

It was the ESRI (Economic Social Research Institute). It wasn't an opinion piece. It produces independent research. It is not in the business of trying to make people feel better or alleviate fears.

The gist of the article was basically that the coronavirus is going to hit the economy and certainly dent economic growth significantly. If the lockdowns persist beyond July, we are potentially looking at negative growth / economic contraction.

If we are past the worst of it by then, the the economy could show positive growth (obviously less than was previously forecast) or zero growth this year.

Of course, they could be totally wrong. Anyone who pretends to have certainty on the economy is a bluffer.

Article is on the front page of the print edition of the IT. Didn't look for it online.

stinger31

awec wrote: »

It was the ESRI (Economic Social Research Institute). It wasn't an opinion piece.

The gist of the article was basically that the coronavirus is going to hit the economy and certainly dent economic growth significantly. If the lockdowns persist beyond July, we are potentially looking at negative growth / economic contraction.

If we are past the worst of it by then, the the economy could show positive growth (obviously less than was previously forecast) or zero growth.

Just remember this is global, not just Ireland. Bearing in mind all the local business that will go to the wall over this, we depend way too heavily on foreign businesses and investment.
This will be a bloodbath and articles like this are just trying to easy tension

awec

stinger31 wrote: »

Just remember this is global, not just Ireland. Bearing in mind all the local business that will go to the wall over this, we depend way too heavily on foreign businesses and investment.
This will be a bloodbath and articles like this are just trying to easy tension

You think the ESRI are unaware of this point?

Again, they're a research institute, they don't produce research to make you feel better. They could definitely be wrong, it's certainly not beyond the realms of possibility, but dismissing it as a belly rub because it doesn't fit the doomsday narrative doesn't make much sense.

stinger31

awec wrote: »

You think the ESRI are unaware of this point?

Again, they're a research institute, they don't produce research to make you feel better. They could definitely be wrong, it's certainly not beyond the realms of possibility, but dismissing it as a belly rub because it doesn't fit the doomsday narrative doesn't make much sense.

No need for the smart arse response....
Anyway this is coming from the same lads who claimed in 2007 that a "soft land" was on its way....

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/end-of-celtic-tiger-next-year-says-esri-1.1294816

You couldn't make this stuff up......

cute geoge

awec wrote: »

How do you propose government stop house prices rising?

By preventing the cost of living multiplying every year .
For a business to hire staff on minimum wage plus prsi in this country is a massive expense on any business ,this cost is then passed all along the line and we end up in a country with the highest cost of living with the social welfare budget accounting for the full amount of Income Tax paid every year .
Back to the person on the minimum wage they end up surviving from week to week .
Pascal Donoghue was probably the 1st minister of Finance ever with a surplus not to increase welfare allowance in his budget this year ,yet no one complimented him on this commendable move!!!

OwlsZat

awec wrote: »

How do you propose government stop house prices rising?

Reducing tax on building supplies.
Giving migrants visas to work on building sites.
Funding councils to build homes.
Reducing stamp duty.
Giving land to developers willing to build houses at affordable costs.

The idea it's not possible is stupid.

voluntary

stinger31 wrote: »

No need for the smart arse response....
Anyway this is coming from the same lads who claimed in 2007 that a "soft land" was on its way....

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/end-of-celtic-tiger-next-year-says-esri-1.1294816

You couldn't make this stuff up......

Few weeks back after first corona-induced market drops, investment gurus were advising shareholders and pension fund holders to sit tight saying that the long term approach always wins and the market will come back and that selling at the peak is not worth the play :rolleyes:

Now, whoever took their advice must be looking quite stupid today.

Taylor365

voluntary wrote: »

Few weeks back after first corona-induced market drops, investment gurus were advising shareholders and pension fund holders to sit tight saying that the long term approach always wins and the market will come back and that selling at the peak is not worth the play :rolleyes:

Now, whoever took their advice must be looking quite stupid today.

You can tell the future?



You have no idea where markets will be this time next year. No one does.

rosmoke

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Name a capital city as wealthy as Dublin with low house prices?

Not sure where you live but on my side of Dublin people are struggling to get by.
Dublin is not wealthy, everything is overpriced, houses are awful, most things are terrible quality from food to construction.

People are robbed here and the sad part is they don't even know it.

voluntary

Taylor365 wrote: »

You can tell the future?



You have no idea where markets will be this time next year. No one does.

I can't. But it's not me who was and is telling people to stay invested during the current crisis. Anyone with a brain sees that businesses are and will be struggling while the virus is spreading and countries are locking down.

awec

voluntary wrote: »

Few weeks back after first corona-induced market drops, investment gurus were advising shareholders and pension fund holders to sit tight saying that the long term approach always wins and the market will come back and that selling at the peak is not worth the play :rolleyes:

Now, whoever took their advice must be looking quite stupid today.

Unless you're due to retire in the very near future moving your pension fund out of stocks is probably one of the worst things to do right now.

You are just turning a potential loss into a guaranteed loss.

Anyone who is retiring in the near future, well it's daft to have any of your pension tied up in stock at that stage anyway.

voluntary

awec wrote: »

Unless you're due to retire in the very near future moving your pension fund out of stocks is probably one of the worst things to do right now.

Only if you assume the worst is behind us already.

Taylor365

voluntary wrote: »

I can't. But it's not me who was and is telling people to stay invested during the current crisis. Anyone with a brain sees that businesses are and will be struggling while the virus is spreading and countries are locking down.

So you're a buy high, sell low fellow!

Mad_maxx

rosmoke wrote: »

Not sure where you live but on my side of Dublin people are struggling to get by.
Dublin is not wealthy, everything is overpriced, houses are awful, most things are terrible quality from food to construction.

People are robbed here and the sad part is they don't even know it.

Food quality is excellent here

OEP

rosmoke wrote: »

Not sure where you live but on my side of Dublin people are struggling to get by.
Dublin is not wealthy, everything is overpriced, houses are awful, most things are terrible quality from food to construction.

People are robbed here and the sad part is they don't even know it.

You must live on a sh*t side of Dublin then

enricoh

Talking to a mate of mine in Hong Kong and he said the whole thing is history over there now.
Everything back to normal, apart from his serviced apartment is half price at the mo due to lack of tourists + businesses flying in staff. He's not a waffler

Mic 1972

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Name a capital city as wealthy as Dublin with low house prices?

Depends on how you measure wealth
Milan is much wealthier than Dublin on a number of levels for example. Better quality life, better food, better hospitals, better quality of both old and new houses

Cheaper accommodations

fliball123

stinger31 wrote: »

Prices will plummet for the foreseeable future. Demand will disappear due to
1)The amount of jobs that will be lost over this.
2)The amount of self employed people who will need massive loans to try stay going and in turn not be profitable for x amount of time and in turn not qualify to get a mortgage etc.
3)The lucky people to still have a job at the end of this will probably have to take a huge pay cut and with the 3.5 times rules it'll be extremely difficult
4)banks wont be loaning
5)more supply will be coming on the market as i would hope the Gov have learnt from the last time
6) People who aren't from here might go home as they cant afford to live here anymore and cheaper to live at home

on your points above
1) Supply is also disappearing meaning anyone who wants to buy has fewer properties to choose from
2) Government has already said they will be helping self employed as well as any one going into mortgage difficulty the banks have already been told to do as they are told
6) if people are coming home we have more Irish living outside of Ireland than in it so where do we house these people?
Other points
A cure/vaccine will be available before the summer already getting success stories from China and the U.S.
People may stop buying until this has passed but that built up demand will be still there. People are paying crazy rents


The most likely outcome is not a lot of transactions while this is going on only those who have investment properties and in desperate need to sell will sell at a cheaper price, but why would you sell when your getting a massive rent here.