Property Market 2020

ZX7R

awec wrote: »

It was the ESRI (Economic Social Research Institute). It wasn't an opinion piece. It produces independent research. It is not in the business of trying to make people feel better or alleviate fears.

The gist of the article was basically that the coronavirus is going to hit the economy and certainly dent economic growth significantly. If the lockdowns persist beyond July, we are potentially looking at negative growth / economic contraction.

If we are past the worst of it by then, the the economy could show positive growth (obviously less than was previously forecast) or zero growth this year.

Of course, they could be totally wrong. Anyone who pretends to have certainty on the economy is a bluffer.

Article is on the front page of the print edition of the IT. Didn't look for it online.

European central bank mirrors this view also you can download a PDF of the files,
But they go a little further no offense to the op as they trade in stocks,they believe part of the blame is also with market trader's themselves in my understanding stock market were always geared towards long term yields , and trading had switched towards quick gain's, resulting in the knee jerk reaction seen in the markets know

Mad_maxx

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Depends on how you measure wealth
Milan is much wealthier than Dublin on a number of levels for example. Better quality life, better food, better hospitals, better quality of both old and new houses

Cheaper accommodations

Is that why hardly any young Italians remain in the country due to the place having been more or less in recession for three decades?

dor843088

enricoh wrote: »

Talking to a mate of mine in Hong Kong and he said the whole thing is history over there now.
Everything back to normal, apart from his serviced apartment is half price at the mo due to lack of tourists + businesses flying in staff. He's not a waffler

Is finding new cases of covid19 every day and evacuating families from their homes only today what you would call back to normal ?

Mic 1972

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Is that why hardly any young Italians remain in the country due to the place having been more or less in recession for three decades?

That's a bit random and definitely doesn't apply to Milan and North Italy in general

SteelyDanJalapeno

We've found a place we love and have gone sale agreed at 10% over asking price, however Engineer puts the house value a little higher than that, but that's besides the point.

We're both in relatively protected private employment, unless the MNCs collapse, mortgage will be about 15% of our take home, and cheaper than our current rent.

This is a house for at least 10-15 years, would you drive on, or stall/withdraw?

ittakestwo

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

We've found a place we love and have gone sale agreed at 10% over asking price, however Engineer puts the house value a little higher than that, but that's besides the point.

We're both in relatively protected private employment, unless the MNCs collapse, mortgage will be about 15% of our take home, and cheaper than our current rent.

This is a house for at least 10-15 years, would you drive on, or stall/withdraw?

An Engineer would not value a house?

When did you go sale agreed? You dont want to buy at a price that you could get cheaper in a few months. What has happened in the last few weeks was unforeseen and will probably take prices down in the coming months.

I would try and negotiate at least a 5% reduction in the asking. If I was a vendor and had gone sale agreed anytime before 2 weeks ago and the buyer said they wanted 5% off I would probably give in rather than put it back on the market now. However if they asked for a 10% I think I would probably put it back on the market.

SteelyDanJalapeno

ittakestwo wrote: »

An Engineer would not value a house?

When did you go sale agreed? You dont want to buy at a price that you could get cheaper in a few months. What has happened in the last few weeks was unforeseen and will probably take prices down in the coming months.

I would try and negotiate at least a 5% reduction in the asking. If I was a vendor and had gone sale agreed anytime before 2 weeks ago and the buyer said they wanted 5% off I would probably give in rather than put it back on the market now. However if they asked for a 10% I think I would probably put it back on the market.

It wasn't an official value from him, just from chatting with him.

Thanks for the rest, food for thought

Zenify

Do you think they are going to finish building these mega sites like cherrywood? They have invested so much into it....

Villa05

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote:

This is a house for at least 10-15 years, would you drive on, or stall/withdraw?

Based on the info provided, you are a safe bet

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote:

We're both in relatively protected private employment, unless the MNCs collapse, mortgage will be about 15% of our take home, and cheaper than our current rent.

Not sure what protected private employment means. I assume it is that your skills are in high demand and that should you loose your job you'll walk into a similar position quickly

15% of income is very low. Should you proceed, consider repayments of up to 25% to minimise risk and pay off mortgage quickly.

ZX7R

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

We've found a place we love and have gone sale agreed at 10% over asking price, however Engineer puts the house value a little higher than that, but that's besides the point.

We're both in relatively protected private employment, unless the MNCs collapse, mortgage will be about 15% of our take home, and cheaper than our current rent.

This is a house for at least 10-15 years, would you drive on, or stall/withdraw?

Drive on with it especially as you plan on long term living there.
I'm selling my house , only Monday my solicitor contacted me to inform that the buyer's had signed there end as they wanted to push the sale through.
I know the buyer's they informed me that there lender boi are to continue with issuing mortgage for the foreseeable future.
That measures are in place to deal with any fallout experienced with the current fears in relation to the virus.

voluntary

There will surely be withdrawals from sale agreed as many people are losing their jobs right now or being laid off.

Knex*

It's very hard not to imagine house prices falling. I don't know what the bottom is, but I think if you're sale agreed you can definitely go back and open dialogue again around the price with respect to the current climate.

If both parties want to move ahead, purely in terms of buying and selling, a deal can be done. 5% is potentially the minimum I'd be looking to get off the price.

superd1978

Im suppose to be signing contracts for a property tomorrow morning, and very apprehensive with all thats going on. I went sale agreed circa 7% above asking price, at 350k. i still think its a reasonably good price, as its a two bedroom apartment in the middle of the IFSC. A similar property went for (a pretty inflated) 410k a couple of weeks back.
Im trying to rationalize the situation in my head, and make a decision on whether to walk away now, or follow through with the deal. Ultimately, does it not boil down to basic ecomomics? Theres a supply / demand issue, and its going to take a number of years before thats aligned. Ireland has a young population, which i can only assume many more thousands of buyers coming into the market every year.
Yes the ecomony will be impacted here for sure, along with property to some extent, but i cant see how there will be a major correction or crash with everything taken into account.
This corona virus will damage the ecomony over the coming months, but will run its course. Meanwhile people still need somewhere to live.
Then theres that niggling side of me saying, the writings on the wall, walk away now....

nerrad01

there is going to be thousands of job losses from this, businesses will fold and wont be able to suddenly just start up again. We are looking at a prolonged isolation period so yes theres a shortage of houses but the world economy is going to be majorly effected.

If you are buying to live in long term and have a secure job and can meet the repayments then go ahead, better to be paying a mortgage you can afford than renting. If you think you may lose your job or its an investment id be seriously reconsidering

voluntary

If you have doubts then push it back by 2-3 weeks and take your time to decide. We may have a clearer view on what's happening in the world at that time.

rosmoke

OEP wrote: »

You must live on a sh*t side of Dublin then

If 400k gets you a house in this sh*t area then yeah.

combat14

Knex. wrote: »

It's very hard not to imagine house prices falling. I don't know what the bottom is, but I think if you're sale agreed you can definitely go back and open dialogue again around the price with respect to the current climate.

If both parties want to move ahead, purely in terms of buying and selling, a deal can be done. 5% is potentially the minimum I'd be looking to get off the price.

Would offer 20-25% less than asking price at moment if even able to safely view houses. Economists talking about US potentially entering recession. It's a whole new world.

OttoPilot

combat14 wrote: »

Would offer 20-25% less than asking price at moment if even able to safely view houses. Economists talking about US potentially entering recession. It's a whole new world.

Odds gonna US recession this year are over 50% atm fyi, per Bloomberg. JP Morgan predicting a recession. And if you're a betting man, the odds on betfair market are 1/3 or 66% chance.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/

randoplh134

Anyone buying property now needs their head examined. The same property will be worth 25-35% less within the next 18 months, fact.

Idbatterim

randoplh134 wrote: »

Anyone buying property now needs their head examined. The same property will be worth 25-35% less within the next 18 months, fact.

not a fact, but plausible. This offering 20-25% less is also bull****, its as if any of us or the seller has a crystal ball and could tell prices would drop by 40% in a year, so take the hand off for the 20-25% drop now :rolleyes: What this will do I reckon, is slow everything down to a near halt, whats the incentive to buy now? unless you yourself are selling in a similar area and downsizing, upsizing etc. worst case scenario for buyers, prices only drop marginally, best case for a buyer (assuming they will be in a position to buy if the **** really hits the fan ) they drop a good chunk. There is an old saying "be wary of catching a falling knife"...

human by their nature tend to over do things, all going good, go mental like there is no tomorrow, the good times will never end, and the same on the down swing. Which is why things tend to over shoot and then under shoot... very few will be lucky enough to get right in at the bottom, because there is a lot of chance to it, its only obvious that it was the "bottom" months after the event, but would you buy now at the top? because that is what this is, the peak and prices were already starting to drop, before this corona "bomb" went off!

optogirl

Idbatterim wrote: »

not a fact, but plausible. This offering 20-25% less is also bull****, its as if any of us or the seller has a crystal ball and could tell prices would drop by 40% in a year, so take the hand off for the 20-25% drop now :rolleyes: What this will do I reckon, is slow everything down to a near halt, whats the incentive to buy now? unless you yourself are selling in a similar area and downsizing, upsizing etc. worst case scenario for buyers, prices only drop marginally, best case for a buyer (assuming they will be in a position to buy if the **** really hits the fan ) they drop a good chunk. There is an old saying "be wary of catching a falling knife"...

But we're still renting and paying a fortune for the pleasure

ebayissues

optogirl wrote: »

But we're still renting and paying a fortune for the pleasure

This as well. The maount i'm paying doesnt even bother me much as the security. The owner of my house is away in Canada/Oz, nothing stopping tem from saying I want my house back.

Idbatterim

optogirl wrote: »

But we're still renting and paying a fortune for the pleasure

I actually entered a bit about this and took it out. If you are being done on rent, it does change things. If you are living at home or paying way below market rent, its a bit different... If you are closing, I would make sure its at least a medium term property!

I would also try renegotiate, say you want more off. In the case of most sellers now, assuming I wasnt in a chain etc. I would probably snap the hand off any one, who was offering a few percent below what I would have accepted a few weeks, differnet planet now. They are still getting near full asking AND can avoid a massive amount of head ache and just bank the cash!

optogirl

Idbatterim wrote: »

I actually entered a bit about this and took it out. If you are being done on rent, it does change things. If you are living at home or paying way below market rent, its a bit different... If you are closing, I would make sure its at least a medium term property!

I would also try renegotiate, say you want more off. In the case of most sellers now, assuming I wasnt in a chain etc. I would probably snap the hand off any one, who was offering a few percent below what I would have accepted a few weeks, differnet planet now. They are still getting near full asking AND can avoid a massive amount of head ache and just bank the cash!

I intend to be carried out of the house we eventually buy in a box so definitely long term!

Idbatterim

optogirl wrote: »

I intend to be carried out of the house we eventually buy in a box so definitely long term!

thats one big issue addressed. The next is, even if people lose their jobs here, it has been proven, the banks will absolutely not be let people evict people out of their home and if they cant do it when certain people were blatantly taking the piss, what are the chances the courts would allow it, in a mental situation like we currently find ourselves in? as close to zero as you can get. This is not like the states, where you could be out on the balls of your ass in the blink of an eye...

OwlsZat

optogirl wrote: »

I intend to be carried out of the house we eventually buy in a box so definitely long term!

Do you plan to die there or just have your wake there?

I've not done a huge amount of thinking about my own death, so I commend you for your forward thinking. What age are you if you don't mind me asking?

superd1978

voluntary wrote: »

If you have doubts then push it back by 2-3 weeks and take your time to decide. We may have a clearer view on what's happening in the world at that time.

Advice taken. Called solicitor today who was totally in agreement, he said it’s very hairy out there at the minute. Pushed out for a minimum of 2-3 weeks.

As an aside, he mentioned his daughter works in Vincent’s hospital and she said things are going to get very bad with this corona situation.

randoplh134

Idbatterim wrote: »

not a fact, but plausible. This offering 20-25% less is also bull****, its as if any of us or the seller has a crystal ball and could tell prices would drop by 40% in a year, so take the hand off for the 20-25% drop now :rolleyes: What this will do I reckon, is slow everything down to a near halt, whats the incentive to buy now? unless you yourself are selling in a similar area and downsizing, upsizing etc. worst case scenario for buyers, prices only drop marginally, best case for a buyer (assuming they will be in a position to buy if the **** really hits the fan ) they drop a good chunk. There is an old saying "be wary of catching a falling knife"...

human by their nature tend to over do things, all going good, go mental like there is no tomorrow, the good times will never end, and the same on the down swing. Which is why things tend to over shoot and then under shoot... very few will be lucky enough to get right in at the bottom, because there is a lot of chance to it, its only obvious that it was the "bottom" months after the event, but would you buy now at the top? because that is what this is, the peak and prices were already starting to drop, before this corona "bomb" went off!

Fully agree

Idbatterim

during the last crash, many refused offers that they would have killed for even three months before. There is no way there will be drastic price reductions volunteered by sellers now, just because stuff MIGHT , but probably will get very serious...

Computer Science Student

Demand will fall through the floor. So anybody that desperately needs to sell now will be selling for a price far lower than they probably hoped.