Property Market 2020

awec

smurgen wrote: »

I never said a pandemic.i said price drops.you spoke of certainty in price stability in an arrogant and dismissive fashion.

Yes, you said price drops due to a whole bunch of economic theory. Numerous times in fact.

After being wrong 3 or 4 times, you don't get to claim you were right when potential price drops are caused by a global pandemic.

But I do wish you all the best in your hunt for a home. I hope you find what you're looking for!

smurgen

awec wrote: »

Yes, you said price drops due to a whole bunch of economic theory. Numerous times in fact.

After being wrong 3 or 4 times, you don't get to claim you were right when potential price drops are caused by a global pandemic.

But I do wish you all the best in your hunt for a home. I hope you find what you're looking for!

My main point was a drop in international activity/global recession leading to a drop in wages or job loss.we were at the top of an economic cycle.one of longest in history. Now the pandemic has triggered the correction I was expecting and probably made the situation worse that what I've predicted but it doesn't mean I was wrong.you were just out and out incorrect however.

alwald

The consequences on financial institutions could be huge. Banks have never recovered from the 2008 crash. BOI for instance its shares were worth over 391 EUR in 2007 and since then the highest it reached was just under 70 EUR...now it's worth 2.36 EUR.
I checked few other banks both in Ireland and other EU countries and the trend is more or less the same.

I am not an expert but their appetite to risk and to lending will be hugely impacted as a result of the damage done by the CoVid-19. Entire nations are shutting down completely and so their economy is going to be hugely impacted. Worrying times ahead for the housing market from the information available to me including various analysis I either read or watched this week...but again I am not an expert.

alias no.9

Not going to to trawl back through the posts for the person who made the DDD reference but just want to acknowledge it was someone else. I recognise the description as someone who viiewed lots of properties in 2011/12/13 going sale agreed in March 2013 but not closing until August 2013 because thats just how **** goes when the seller isn't calling the shots (desperate and divorced).

Finding something you want to buy in a recession is hard, financing it is tougher (we were,, ~70% mortgage, more like 60% when it was habitable. We still faced all the crap, biding at more than 90% of asking with the seller holding out despite no orher bidders etc. Even after all of that, the lingering doubt and uncertainty when you go to close in an uncertain market will challenge rhe most rational mind.

With the benefit of hindsight, we did ok, but our decisions were based on needs, not smarts or any notion that we could see the bottom l.

Etray reviewer

Are we likely to see further mortgage interest rate decreases in both fixed and variable?

OEP

smurgen wrote: »

My main point was a drop in international activity/global recession leading to a drop in wages or job loss.we were at the top of an economic cycle.one of longest in history. Now the pandemic has triggered the correction I was expecting and probably made the situation worse that what I've predicted but it doesn't mean I was wrong.you were just out and out incorrect however.

There couldn't be a more apt moment for the "even a broken clock is right twice a day" saying

voluntary

Irish banks are f...ed

AIB Group plc
16 Mar, 08:57 GMT

1.17 EUR −0.28 (-19.18%)

ittakestwo

Etray reviewer wrote: »

Are we likely to see further mortgage interest rate decreases in both fixed and variable?

Unlikely, they probably cant afford to pass on the lower borrowing rates to the customer as inevitably there will be defaults on current loans they will need to allow for.

Knex*

Etray reviewer wrote: »

Are we likely to see further mortgage interest rate decreases in both fixed and variable?

I'd be surprised if not. They typically do during a recession, although not much runway left for the banks, admittedly.

However, I'm struggling to guess as to when the lowest rates would be. If I had to bet, I would say within around 12 months. Others will know a lot more than me though, this is from fairly surface level knowledge.

ittakestwo

Stock market are absolutely tanking this morning. The Irish ISEQ has lost 12% in the last hour.

Assetbacked

https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/IE00BJ34P519-XMSM

IRES REIT's share price is in free fall. The largest landlord in the State and its share price is now trading at an all time low, 44% lower than its all time high in December 2019.

It is astonishing how quickly its share price has collapsed. With the bulk of its shareholders being institutional investors themselves, the boomy rental gains of the last few years are not seen as something which can be achieved going forward. A silver lining to the covid19 crisis to see these types of entities struggling I have to say.

Edit: To add that Glenveagh and Cairn Homes are even worse.

ebayissues

Absolute carnage

voluntary

This will be a land of opportunity for whoever has the balls to wait long enough and sits on cash right now.

Assetbacked

voluntary wrote: »

This will be a land of opportunity for whoever has the balls to wait long enough and sits on cash right now.

So those that can, should sell up and hit the rental market for a while with their cash?

voluntary

Landlords should start preparing for drop in rent collections. People are losing their incomes and won't be able to pay rents. If the virus problem is not sorted quickly then rents are going to tank too.

voluntary

Assetbacked wrote: »

So those that can, should sell up and hit the rental market for a while with their cash?

Nah, it's too late for that. My bet is that the best buys will be 4-6 weeks from today. Stock and liquid assets. Something you can buy/sell fast.

landofthetree

SozBbz wrote: »

Read my post - it was purely about the virus.

And yes, scientists are confident we will overcome it, this is not some new normal that we have to all radically adjust our lives forever. Not to say we won't have a bad few weeks ahead, but its not forever.

If you want to bang on about other external factors, go ahead, just please don't quote me like I've anything to do with it.

Also its pure scaremongering to suggest its not temporary when the scientific community all state that this will run its course (like all the other iterations of the corona virus have done in the past)

This post has aged badly. Only a few days old.

Browney7

Etray reviewer wrote: »

Are we likely to see further mortgage interest rate decreases in both fixed and variable?

Very unlikely in my opinion - although their funding costs will drop with the inevitable printing of money that will come from the ECB, they will be eating a lot of losses in the real economy from self employed, small business etc so they will try to get margin from wherever they can. In effect, I can see them using mortgage net interest margin to cross subsidise losses from elsewhere.

Knex*

Interesting. I was almost positive that we would see them drop more.

Austria!

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/IE00BJ34P519-XMSM

IRES REIT's share price is in free fall. The largest landlord in the State and its share price is now trading at an all time low, 44% lower than its all time high in December 2019.

It is astonishing how quickly its share price has collapsed. With the bulk of its shareholders being institutional investors themselves, the boomy rental gains of the last few years are not seen as something which can be achieved going forward. A silver lining to the covid19 crisis to see these types of entities struggling I have to say.

Edit: To add that Glenveagh and Cairn Homes are even worse.

Looking at the annual report the value of the property it owns minus the debts it has comes to just over 800million. That share price gives it a market cap of 580million. Obviously there's more to it than just property prices but does it suggest the market is pricing in a property price drop that's substantial?

voluntary

With ECB expected to keep pumping money I'd expect banks' borrowing costs to drop further and mortgage interest rates to follow. Mind, Irish pay the highest interest rates on mortgages in the whole euro zone. I'd think twice before fixing rates for a long term today.

voluntary

Austria! wrote: »

Looking at the annual report the value of the property it owns minus the debts it has comes to just over 800million. That share price gives it a market cap of 580million. Obviously there's more to it than just property prices but does it suggest the market is pricing in a property price drop that's substantial?

If investors pull money out, will these funds be forced to fire sell the properties or would they simply suspend withdrawals?

landofthetree

Cairn homes shares are down 42% since Feb 21st.

Austria!

voluntary wrote: »

If investors pull money out, will these funds be forced to fire sell the properties or would they simply suspend withdrawals?

How could investors pull money out? It's got shareholders who could sell their shares but that's not going to affect the company balance sheet.

OwlsZat

Austria! wrote: »

Looking at the annual report the value of the property it owns minus the debts it has comes to just over 800million. That share price gives it a market cap of 580million. Obviously there's more to it than just property prices but does it suggest the market is pricing in a property price drop that's substantial?

HIBERNIA REIT PLC down 33% in the last month too.

voluntary

Austria! wrote: »

How could investors pull money out? It's got shareholders who could sell their shares but that's not going to affect the company balance sheet.

If that's the case then I withdraw my comment. I think I got confused with property investment funds.

randoplh134

smurgen wrote: »

Nope.just that a price correction was well overdue.the coronavirus was only getting the ball rolling.the fallout afterwards will bring a proper downward momentum.you and a few others here bawked at the idea.

Don't feed the troll. That poster just nitpicks at snippets to discredit the other poster when they have clearly proved him wrong. I'ts very childish

randoplh134

smurgen wrote: »

You dismissed my prediction of a massive drop on the market within the next 9 months that I made 3ish months ago. I think your credibility here is more or less shot.

Here Here.

Word of advice, ignore this guy. You could post a well articulated response full of data and well sourced facts but he will still find a childish way to knit pick it. It get's annoying and tends to derail the thread.

landofthetree

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ireland-ranked-second-worst-in-the-developed-world-for-property-affordability-38967606.html

the State is the second most expensive market relative to incomes behind only Switzerland.

randoplh134

smurgen wrote: »

Nope.just that a price correction was well overdue.the coronavirus was only getting the ball rolling.the fallout afterwards will bring a proper downward momentum.you and a few others here bawked at the idea.

The correction was a long time coming, i don't know how people couldn't have seen the writing was on the wall ( ignoring Covid19). The comedown from this reckless asset bull cycle will be monumental and there will surely be bargains to be had.