Property Market 2020

ebayissues

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Is there any precedent for this? Genuinely curious. When is the last time this drop happened?

I believe spx drop 50% - from 2007 - 2009.. it took 2 yrs to get to approx 50% drop.





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fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

You provided another good reason why demand will decrease. Old people dying and freeing houses. rRgarding foreign workers going back home, if they need to do it their own countries will take care of that, this is normal procedure in an emergency. People were flown back from China during the outbreak, they didn't have to provide for themselves

So where do we put the 5/6 million Irish people living abroad who are all going to flood home? Some people will die unfortunately it may bring some properties onto the market but the underlining demand will still be there, people will still have to rent and rents are high. Ireland are lucky there are nearly 300k people working in multinationals so work from home very little effect, same goes with the public sector 300k who will continue to get paid no matter if they work or not. You can then add in about half of SMEs who can work from home that is about 250k working in SMES so 125k. So we will still have at least two thirds of people who were working will be getting paid if the worst happens. I work for an SME and its business as usual our company were all working from home since last year it was the way most IT and computer using companies having been doing business over the last decade. So if people are arguing supply will be increased due to foreign people leaving cant leave out the fact that we have a diaspora that is huge and percentage wise probably one of the highest. Why would these Irish people not want to come home and only foreign people will want to get out of Ireland. Your argument does not hold up

smurgen

Augeo wrote: »

30% off the FTSE100 and 20% off the S&P500.
Similar off most major Irish stocks in last 2 / 3 weeks.
Property will follow, an absolute certainty.

Apple opening down almost 10% and trading haulted.that's after the fed fired the silver bullet yesterday.

Knex*

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Everyone is 100pc sure demand will remain or fall.

Sellers obviously saying its a small blip, buyers saying it will fall by a huge amount.

No one knows. However, prices are more likely to come down as the economy slows down. Could be 10pc/20pc/40pc. No one knows.

The sheer weight of everyone expecting prices to fall will create enough downward pressure to at least make it somewhat true.

That's before you factor in widespread job losses, companies folding, and the real impact of the virus to be felt in the coming weeks.

America is only at the start of what will be a pretty horrible few months for them.

The market perception is quite different today to where it was even two weeks ago. It will be fundamentally different again in another few weeks.

smurgen

smurgen wrote: »

Apple opening down almost 10% and trading haulted.that's after the fed fired the silver bullet yesterday.

S&P dropped back to what it was before the close to end of trading rise on Friday.
There's professionals making fortunes here as well, without doubt.

Knex*

fliball123 wrote: »

So where do we put the 5/6 million Irish people living abroad who are all going to flood home? Some people will die unfortunately it may bring some properties onto the market but the underlining demand will still be there, people will still have to rent and rents are high. Ireland are lucky there are nearly 300k people working in multinationals so work from home very little effect, same goes with the public sector 300k who will continue to get paid no matter if they work or not. You can then add in about half of SMEs who can work from home that is about 250k working in SMES so 125k. So we will still have at least two thirds of people who were working will be getting paid if the worst happens. I work for an SME and its business as usual our company were all working from home since last year it was the way most IT and computer using companies having been doing business over the last decade. So if people are arguing supply will be increased due to foreign people leaving cant leave out the fact that we have a diaspora that is huge and percentage wise probably one of the highest. Why would these Irish people not want to come home and only foreign people will want to get out of Ireland. Your argument does not hold up

Unless those Irish returning home are doing so with cash in hand and existing Irish bank accounts, I would think that they're a long way away from being granted credit from the banks in this current situation.

Assetbacked

Augeo wrote: »

2007 / 2008. It wasn't this fast though.

This time it will be different. It will destroy the US. They have largely postponed the 2008 crash by pumping more debt into the system to the point where the Fed cannot do anything else. This has set them up for a massive crash.

Assetbacked

Assetbacked wrote: »

This time it will be different. It will destroy the US. .............

It's already different.
The US will be grand again, well the S&P500 will be anyway, as sure as night follows day.

Knex*

Assetbacked wrote: »

This time it will be different. It will destroy the US. They have largely postponed the 2008 crash by pumping more debt into the system to the point where the Fed cannot do anything else. This has set them up for a massive crash.

Was chatting to someone from America about all of this recently. They said that in 2008 their interest rates were 6%. Last week, they were about 1.6%.

Even that metric alone shows you how little safety net they have this time around.

smurgen

Assetbacked wrote: »

This time it will be different. It will destroy the US. They have largely postponed the 2008 crash by pumping more debt into the system to the point where the Fed cannot do anything else. This has set them up for a massive crash.

Trump overinflated the balloon.the markets also not appreciating the coverup of coronavirus numbers.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

ebayissues wrote: »

I believe spx drop 50% - from 2017 - 2019.. it took 2 yrs to get to approx 50% drop.

But why was there a drop of the prices kept going up? In relation to property.

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

So where do we put the 5/6 million Irish people living abroad who are all going to flood home? Some people will die unfortunately it may bring some properties onto the market but the underlining demand will still be there, people will still have to rent and rents are high. Ireland are lucky there are nearly 300k people working in multinationals so work from home very little effect, same goes with the public sector 300k who will continue to get paid no matter if they work or not. You can then add in about half of SMEs who can work from home that is about 250k working in SMES so 125k. So we will still have at least two thirds of people who were working will be getting paid if the worst happens. I work for an SME and its business as usual our company were all working from home since last year it was the way most IT and computer using companies having been doing business over the last decade. So if people are arguing supply will be increased due to foreign people leaving cant leave out the fact that we have a diaspora that is huge and percentage wise probably one of the highest. Why would these Irish people not want to come home and only foreign people will want to get out of Ireland. Your argument does not hold up

Irish people who want to come home won't enter the property market anytime soon unless they are cash buyers.
It doesn't matter how many people need a house, what matters is how many can afford one once banks stops lending money

ebayissues

ebayissues wrote: »

I believe spx drop 50% - from 2017 - 2019.. it took 2 yrs to get to approx 50% drop.

Pheonix10 wrote: »

But why was there a drop of the prices kept going up? In relation to property.

I imagine that's meant to read ....... 2007 - 2009

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Irish people who want to come home won't enter the property market anytime soon unless they are cash buyers.
It doesn't matter how many people need a house, what matters is how many can afford one once banks stops lending money

Have you anything to back that up and I am not saying they will buy I am saying they will need somewhere to live ergo "RENTING"

OttoPilot

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you anything to back that up and I am not saying they will buy I am saying they will need somewhere to live ergo "RENTING"

When people needed somewhere to live during the recession they moved in with mammy and daddy rent free. Rent is already way overpriced. Landlords are going to get absolutely hammered when unemployment rises.

fliball123

OttoPilot wrote: »

When people needed somewhere to live during the recession they moved in with mammy and daddy rent free. Rent is already way overpriced. Landlords are going to get absolutely hammered when unemployment rises.

So ignoring all health warnings and increasing the likelyhood of killing your parents?? I dont think so. The last time I checked the unemployed still need to live somewhere?

SteelyDanJalapeno

The jig may well be up for landlords

OwlsZat

fliball123 wrote: »

So ignoring all health warnings and increasing the likelyhood of killing your parents?? I dont think so. The last time I checked the unemployed still need to live somewhere?

The unemployed are going to go home or move back in with relatives. Are you aware how much job seekers allowance gets you a week? Well below what's required....

OttoPilot

fliball123 wrote: »

So ignoring all health warnings and increasing the likelyhood of killing your parents?? I dont think so. The last time I checked the unemployed still need to live somewhere?

Yeah, it will be the streets then. Homelessness is already at an all time high.

Rent is the most over inflated market in the iris economy atm therefore it has the most to fall from a recession. It doesn't matter that people "need" housing. People needed houses in 2008 but still didn't buy them.

Gumbo

landofthetree wrote: »

140,000 people have been laid off work.

70,000 restaurant workers, 50,000 bar staff, plus 20,000 crèche and childcare workers.


https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0316/1123480-coronavirus-ireland/

Creche workers should be paid as we have still have to pay our Creche fees.

Gumbo

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

The jig may well be up for landlords

And tenants alike.

Assetbacked

Gumbo wrote: »

And tenants alike.

Yes, it is up for tenants which leads to it being up for landlords. Prepare for people trying to get out of leases or asking for time to pay/seeking lower rent once the job losses follow. The US is the driver for the Irish economy, not what is happening in Europe. After all, we have used the US to dig us out of the recession, enabling the economy to speed beyond the rest of the EU. US turmoil is Irish turmoil.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Gumbo wrote: »

And tenants alike.

Of course, what's good for the goose

optogirl

OwlsZat wrote: »

Do you plan to die there or just have your wake there?

I've not done a huge amount of thinking about my own death, so I commend you for your forward thinking. What age are you if you don't mind me asking?

40. I'm not over thinking my death, just intend to buy a home for life

fliball123

OwlsZat wrote: »

The unemployed are going to go home or move back in with relatives. Are you aware how much job seekers allowance gets you a week? Well below what's required....

and how much would they get off HAP and other assistance if not living with parents

fliball123

OttoPilot wrote: »

When people needed somewhere to live during the recession they moved in with mammy and daddy rent free. Rent is already way overpriced. Landlords are going to get absolutely hammered when unemployment rises.

Its different this time as Mammy and Daddy are highly susceptible to the virus and might be a death sentence ergo people wont go to mammy and daddy as I dont think any kid wants to kill their parents even if there is a slight chance and all evidence out there is the older you are the more chance you have of dying. So once again i ask where will all of these people live or do you think everyone will take that risk?

fliball123

OwlsZat wrote: »

The unemployed are going to go home or move back in with relatives. Are you aware how much job seekers allowance gets you a week? Well below what's required....

so would you put your parents at that risk? I wouldnt

fliball123

OttoPilot wrote: »

Yeah, it will be the streets then. Homelessness is already at an all time high.

Rent is the most over inflated market in the iris economy atm therefore it has the most to fall from a recession. It doesn't matter that people "need" housing. People needed houses in 2008 but still didn't buy them.

Why is it over inflated hint because of demand, if people think that people will leave the country even do as we speak the airports are grooming to be closed or by the model that foreigners will go home and we will have an influx of the Irish diaspora coming home where do you put them. Do you think any parent loving child will risk their parents lives to move in with them?

Back in 2008 there was an abundance of places to buy and rent the same is not the case in 2020

coolshannagh28

The question is whether the central banks can provide enough capital to bail out one quarter of essentially zero activity " conditional on this only lasting one quarter" and looking at Italy it could need 1 trillion alone ....

OttoPilot

fliball123 wrote: »

Why is it over inflated hint because of demand, if people think that people will leave the country even do as we speak the airports are grooming to be closed or by the model that foreigners will go home and we will have an influx of the Irish diaspora coming home where do you put them. Do you think any parent loving child will risk their parents lives to move in with them?

Back in 2008 there was an abundance of places to buy and rent the same is not the case in 2020

Someone's worried about their investment