Property Market 2020

fliball123

OttoPilot wrote: »

Someone's worried about their investment

No worried about killing the elderly I have no investment . If you look at comments I have made I have said if anyone is buying to hold off and if anyone is selling and can afford to hold off and rent it out. People are spinning things that rents are going to come down and I dont see how over two thirds of the population will be still getting paid and the government will have to help out others

landofthetree

fliball123 wrote: »

No worried about killing the elderly I have no investment . If you look at comments I have made I have said if anyone is buying to hold off and if anyone is selling and can afford to hold off and rent it out. People are spinning things that rents are going to come down and I dont see how over two thirds of the population will be still getting paid and the government will have to help out others

The government can't pay it.

You're talking billions in wages and rent. Plus a big drop off in revenue.

It's nightmare stuff.

Medical world saying the current lockdown in Ireland isn't enough.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfJohnCrown/status/1239330403015589897

OttoPilot

fliball123 wrote: »

Its different this time as Mammy and Daddy are highly susceptible to the virus and might be a death sentence ergo people wont go to mammy and daddy as I dont think any kid wants to kill their parents even if there is a slight chance and all evidence out there is the older you are the more chance you have of dying. So once again i ask where will all of these people live or do you think everyone will take that risk?

How will kids transmit this to their parents when everyone is on lockdown? Your argument is not very logical. The alternative is people being on the streets. HAP requires people to be on the social housing list. A lot of people who lose their jobs wont be on the list.

The Belly

fliball123 wrote: »

No worried about killing the elderly I have no investment . If you look at comments I have made I have said if anyone is buying to hold off and if anyone is selling and can afford to hold off and rent it out. People are spinning things that rents are going to come down and I dont see how over two thirds of the population will be still getting paid and the government will have to help out others

This had only started and already there is mass layoffs in the hospitality sector. The broader economy will follow suit as demand for all but essential items plummets.

Sheeps

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Demand will fall if people's own economic situation changes and they are either unable to buy or wish to hold off until there is more certainty around their jobs and wages.

I'm not denying that there will be a severe recession, and I fully expect that house prices will drop, but I think that in the short term a lot of the jobs we're seeing being lost will be low paid workers who probably weren't in the market for homes. I'm guessing a the most severe drop in second hand house prices, whilst new home development will slow but prices will remain higher albeit slightly lower. It really all depends on the length of time the lock downs go on for.

OttoPilot

Sheeps wrote: »

I'm not denying that there will be a severe recession, and I fully expect that house prices will drop, but I think that in the short term a lot of the jobs we're seeing being lost will be low paid workers who probably weren't in the market for homes. I'm guessing a the most severe drop in second hand house prices, whilst new home development will slow but prices will remain higher albeit slightly lower. It really all depends on the length of time the lock downs go on for.

50% of the economy is consumer spending (70% in USA). 50 or 100 thousand people is going to have a knock on effect on higher earners too. Lower waged people tend to spend all their pay in the month they get it too.

Clearly the government is trying to replace this spending. The question is, to what degree will and can the government replace this spending without causing another sovereign debt crisis?

coolshannagh28

OttoPilot wrote: »

50% of the economy is consumer spending (70% in USA). 50 or 100 thousand people is going to have a knock on effect on higher earners too. Lower waged people tend to spend all their pay in the month they get it too.

Clearly the government is trying to replace this spending. The question is, to what degree will and can the government replace this spending without causing another sovereign debt crisis?

This is the quandary , with rates at close to zero the only tool is QE and this is limited by the solvency of the central banks and the ECB , Legarde is singing dumb and Italy needs a huge injection almost immediately ; do they have the ammo ? No

The Belly

OttoPilot wrote: »

50% of the economy is consumer spending (70% in USA). 50 or 100 thousand people is going to have a knock on effect on higher earners too. Lower waged people tend to spend all their pay in the month they get it too.

Clearly the government is trying to replace this spending. The question is, to what degree will and can the government replace this spending without causing another sovereign debt crisis?

End of the Euro is not unrealistic given the magnitude of the crisis.

fliball123

landofthetree wrote: »

The government can't pay it.

You're talking billions in wages and rent. Plus a big drop off in revenue.

It's nightmare stuff.

Medical world saying the current lockdown in Ireland isn't enough.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfJohnCrown/status/1239330403015589897

Well you can not expect a landlord to have a tenant in and not paying that wont happen either

fliball123

OttoPilot wrote: »

How will kids transmit this to their parents when everyone is on lockdown? Your argument is not very logical. The alternative is people being on the streets. HAP requires people to be on the social housing list. A lot of people who lose their jobs wont be on the list.

This is an ongoing conversation I am having with another poster. He/she is of the belief that we are going to have a flux of people going back to their native country and they were only thinking of people leaving and forgetting the huge numbers or Irish who have gone out into the world and may come back home due to this event. These are the kids (kids as in they are kids to parents here but may well be in their 20s/30s/40s/50s with their kids) I am saying would you come home and live with your parents and run the risk of killing them

fliball123

The Belly wrote: »

This had only started and already there is mass layoffs in the hospitality sector. The broader economy will follow suit as demand for all but essential items plummets.

At least two thirds will continue working here I can see job losses in the short to medium term

Knex*

The Belly wrote: »

End of the Euro is not unrealistic given the magnitude of the crisis.

Wow. That's a bit surreal for me to imagine.

beggars_bush

Knex. wrote: »

Wow. That's a bit surreal for me to imagine.

Back to punts we go

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

Its different this time as Mammy and Daddy are highly susceptible to the virus and might be a death sentence ergo people wont go to mammy and daddy as I dont think any kid wants to kill their parents even if there is a slight chance and all evidence out there is the older you are the more chance you have of dying. So once again i ask where will all of these people live or do you think everyone will take that risk?

People with no jobs will go back home, some will move back in with parents, other will go back to their countries. Ireland attracts a lot of foreign workers, they won't if jobs aren't available
During recession people went away, a lot of apartments in city center were empty or rented for half current the price

Mic 1972

Sheeps wrote: »

I'm not denying that there will be a severe recession, and I fully expect that house prices will drop, but I think that in the short term a lot of the jobs we're seeing being lost will be low paid workers who probably weren't in the market for homes. I'm guessing a the most severe drop in second hand house prices, whilst new home development will slow but prices will remain higher albeit slightly lower. It really all depends on the length of time the lock downs go on for.

People with low salaries are in the rental market, rental impacts property value, it's all conected

SozBbz

Knex. wrote: »

Wow. That's a bit surreal for me to imagine.

Just because things get mentioned on this or other threads, it doesnt mean they're going to happen. Online forums like this can be a bit of an echo chamber, sometimes for negativity.

For what its worth, I don't underestimate how difficult this is going to be for the next while but it is temporary and its effecting most if not all member states. I don't see why the ECB wouldnt print money to support countries impacted because 1) this will pass and 2) its in everyones best interests that otherwise viable businesses are still around once this is all over. Govts will then spend this money on easing the cash flow issues and providing additional social welfare payments for those effected.

On a very micro level, I plan to spend all around me once this is over and I have bought some vouchers from local businesses in order to give them a bit of a boost. I think if there is some silver lining, perhaps this is making people focus on the real economy and supporting local businesses as they try to get back on their feet.

It doesnt make sense that the EU or national govts will not do whatever it takes to ensure real and necessary industries arent wiped out due to something that although very serious, is not permanent.

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People with no jobs will go back home, some will move back in with parents, other will go back to their countries. Ireland attracts a lot of foreign workers, they won't if jobs aren't available
During recession people went away, a lot of apartments in city center were empty or rented for half current the price

OK ask yourself the question in the last 20 years have we imported more workers or exported more ????

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

Why is it over inflated hint because of demand, if people think that people will leave the country even do as we speak the airports are grooming to be closed or by the model that foreigners will go home and we will have an influx of the Irish diaspora coming home where do you put them. Do you think any parent loving child will risk their parents lives to move in with them?

Back in 2008 there was an abundance of places to buy and rent the same is not the case in 2020

People who go home where do you thin they are going? they go back home with their parents or relatives, that applies to foreigners going back home and to Irish people coming back. Emigrants don't feed the property market unless they bring cash with them.

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

OK ask yourself the question in the last 20 years have we imported more workers or exported more ????

The ones we imported may go away, the once we exported may or may not come back, it depends on where they went and if jobs are in danger there. You are using Ireland a blue print fro every country in the world

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People who go home where do you thin they are going? they go back home with their parents or relatives, that applies to foreigners going back home and to Irish people coming back. Emigrants don't feed the property market unless they bring cash with them.

How do you know? What about people working in jobs that are easy to do remotely? All I am saying is if you are a person either in Ireland or not in Ireland and you are thinking of going home would you take the risk of infecting and killing your parents?

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The ones we imported may go away, the once we exported may or may not come back, it depends on where they went and if jobs are in danger there. You are using Ireland a blue print fro every country in the world

No I am not I am arguing the case with another poster who rightly pointed out that at this time in crisis that all foreigners are going to go home and forgot the argument about Irish people abroad coming home as well. I also asked the question if your coming home would you take the risk of staying with your parents who would be a lot older and lot more vulnerable could quite frankly kill them?

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

No I am not I am arguing the case with another poster who rightly pointed out that at this time in crisis that all foreigners are going to go home and forgot the argument about Irish people abroad coming home as well. I also asked the question if your coming home would you take the risk of staying with your parents who would be a lot older and lot more vulnerable could quite frankly kill them?

I already answered your question. When people go back home they actual do go back to their families. You don't go back to a country without a accommodation. People who are being flown back home get quarantined before reuniting with their families, have you following the news recently?

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

How do you know? What about people working in jobs that are easy to do remotely? All I am saying is if you are a person either in Ireland or not in Ireland and you are thinking of going home would you take the risk of infecting and killing your parents?

People get quarantined as soon as they arrive, your arguments are very weak

voluntary

The majority of low paid foreign workers will not fly to their homelands as their countries are most likely in the crisis too. The smart and safe play is to stay calm and survive the bad times on the social welfare money. Landlords be prepared to start accepting SW payments/rates, request to lower the rents and also expect high numbers of non payments.

Mic 1972

voluntary wrote: »

The majority of low paid foreign workers will not fly to their homelands as their countries are most likely in the crisis too. The smart and safe play is to stay calm and survive the bad times on the social welfare money. Landlords be prepared to start accepting SW payments/rates, request to lower the rents and also expect high numbers of non payments.

I was renting 2 rooms in my house to people who can't work from home, I'm not taking my chances so i had to give them both notice, they'll be gone by end of the month. I would imagine there will be more people in my situation

smurgen

voluntary wrote: »

The majority of low paid foreign workers will not fly to their homelands as their countries are most likely in the crisis too. The smart and safe play is to stay calm and survive the bad times on the social welfare money. Landlords be prepared to start accepting SW payments/rates, request to lower the rents and also expect high numbers of non payments.

Doubtful.ireland was a raising tide and they flocked to us.soon the cost/benefit of being away from home with be greatly diminished and they will return home. Irish landlords will have to sell up or accept lower rent or go bust.

OwlsZat

optogirl wrote: »

40. I'm not over thinking my death, just intend to buy a home for life

Then call it your forever home. Good luck with your purchase.

randoplh134

smurgen wrote: »

Trump overinflated the balloon.the markets also not appreciating the coverup of coronavirus numbers.

This has nothing got to do with Trump ffs, talk about derailing the thread.

But just to be clear, the market was already high on QE and on a bull run years before Trump came to office.

landofthetree

The Taoiseach said the Minster for Finance, Paschal Donohoe, will meet with the banks about deferring loans and ask for forebearance from banks for those struggling.

Has to happen. A few months holiday on all loans.

Their isnt much to be gained by kicking a couple of hundred thousands out of their houses be they renting or paying a mortgage.

smurgen

randoplh134 wrote: »

This has nothing got to do with Trump ffs, talk about derailing the thread.

But just to be clear, the market was already high on QE and on a bull run years before Trump came to office.

You're telling me trump hasn't been pressuring the Fed for months/years now? Also interesting to see France's Emmanuel Macron suspending rent and utilities .